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2020 Democratic Nominee

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15,595

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i've said it over and over.  like it or not, it's a huge issue for voters.
i think my actual statement was if there was a pro/con list with 25 cons and the only pro is "will beat trump" then that will be enough for people.  i may believe that more today than when i originally said it.  and after impeachment hearings, it may become even more true.
my new fantasyland/fanfic hope is a biden/warren ticket where he steps down the day after inauguration, and then they nominate pete to be the new vp.  boom make it happen.  make kamala ag.  make bernie party elder, power broker, and permanent trump troll.
a man can dream, right?

At this point I can’t think of any left leaning policy that would cause me to vote Trump. For a decent chunk of the independents, however, single payer healthcare or free college for all would probably do it.
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,225

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8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:


At this point I can’t think of any left leaning policy that would cause me to vote Trump. For a decent chunk of the independents, however, single payer healthcare or free college for all would probably do it.

healthcare is going to be an interesting topic in the general election debates.

dem candidate - here's our plan to fix healthcare, and make sure everyone is insured. (goes on to explain plan)

trump - we have a plan, it's the best plan, we have the very most smartest people working on it, so smart, very great, tremendous.

moderator - ok, what is it?

trump - reelect me and i'll tell you after.  (turns and winks to audience)

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3,160

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Where have all the white women that wanted Hillary to the be the first woman president in '08 gone? Why aren't they behind Warren or Harris? I think Hillary's defeat in '16 has made a lot of people hesitant about backing a woman candidate again. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,225

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1 minute ago, Bruh Man said:

Where have all the white women that wanted Hillary to the be the first woman president in '08 gone? Why aren't they behind Warren or Harris? I think Hillary's defeat in '16 has made a lot of people hesitant about backing a woman candidate again. 

the myth - men vote only for men because men don't want a woman to be president.

the fact - too many women don't like women, and still somehow aren't comfortable voting for them.

 

sucks that hillary was the lead blocker for that whole thing.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,523

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My shook level re: Biden winning the nomination is at a 6 out of 10 right now.

2 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Where have all the white women that wanted Hillary to the be the first woman president in '08 gone? Why aren't they behind Warren or Harris? I think Hillary's defeat in '16 has made a lot of people hesitant about backing a woman candidate again. 

White women? Over half are Trump voters. Of the next half, pretty much all of them over 40 have made the patriarchal bargain.

America has been a white patriarchy for all of its existence. Hard to break that programming quickly.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,225

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26 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

My shook level re: Biden winning the nomination is at a 6 out of 10 right now.

White women? Over half are Trump voters. Of the next half, pretty much all of them over 40 have made the patriarchal bargain.

America has been a white patriarchy for all of its existence. Hard to break that programming quickly.

considering pete is polling pretty closely with the top couple women, it wouldn't be a crazy bold prediction to say by 2028 there's a chance that an african-american man and a gay man could be elected president before a woman (of any ethnicity).

think about how crazy that would've sounded just 20 years ago.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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26 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

considering pete is polling pretty closely with the top couple women, it wouldn't be a crazy bold prediction to say by 2028 there's a chance that an african-american man and a gay man could be elected president before a woman (of any ethnicity).

think about how crazy that would've sounded just 20 years ago.

I’d bet we’ve already had a gay man as president. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,225

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2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’d bet we’ve already had a gay man as president. 

oh you mean this little guy?  i wouldn't worry about this little guy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Buchanan

seriously, i googled "america's first gay president" and a bunch of buchanan stuff popped up.

so yeah, i...learned something today.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,523

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Beto already did this cute joke, thief!

More clowns for the clown car.

This guy could give the Dems a Senate seat if he ran for it in 2020, but nope... yet another destined-to-lose white guy presidential candidate chooses to ignore a move that would actually help in his quest for personal glory.

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Enchubben

Enchubben 5,600

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On 5/10/2019 at 3:49 PM, henrygandorf said:

healthcare is going to be an interesting topic in the general election debates.

dem candidate - here's our plan to fix healthcare, and make sure everyone is insured. (goes on to explain plan)

trump - we have a plan, it's the best plan, we have the very most smartest people working on it, so smart, very great, tremendous.

moderator - ok, what is it?

trump - reelect me and i'll tell you after.  (turns and winks to audience)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/biden-claims-he-doesnt-have-time-to-give-details-on-his-healthcare-plan%3f_amp=true

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,523

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Also, they want to pick the winning horse. 

giphy.gif

But you're right. Unless you really love Joe it's kind of dumb to jump in fully on his side unless you're getting paid (Symone Sanders, FOR SHAME!).

Edited by bad_teammate
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F250

F250 29,201

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On 5/10/2019 at 4:59 PM, henrygandorf said:

oh you mean this little guy?  i wouldn't worry about this little guy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Buchanan

seriously, i googled "america's first gay president" and a bunch of buchanan stuff popped up.

so yeah, i...learned something today.

I never heard that about Buchanan but always assumed there have been several gay Presidents.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,523

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Fun Scenario:

- Biden wins the nomination in a closely-contest primary that ends in some convention bad blood
- Since it's close,  everyone stays in for longer than perhaps they should have
- None of these guys goes for the Senate
- Trump wins re-election
- GOP secures or even expands their Senate advantage

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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Just like to say the polls are worthless right now.  There are reasons Beto’s poll numbers are down.  

1.  He’s not media blitzing like Pete Buttigieg... he’s building a grassroots infrastructure for the long game.  His digital infrastructure is also being organized and it looks good.  

2.  There is ZERO need to be anywhere near the front of the pack right now in the polls if you’re Beto O’Rourke.  He has enough charisma and talent to inflate his numbers by a few points anytime he wants by doing a few media tours.

TV and social media pundits fucking suck because they’re all about the current news cycle, the current poll, and horseshit like electability.  They ignore the long game and quickly forget that Trump wasn’t even a candidate yet at this time in 2015.  Marathon not a sprint. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19,539

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11 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Maybe they’re trying to raise their profile before dropping out and running for the senate? I have no idea if that’s true but I hope that’s a possibility. 

Running for president is very lucrative. Much more lucrative than running for senate.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I gotta say all the folks saying Uncle Joe will fall apart once the debates start and he gets served some hard hitting questions are vastly overestimating voters' intelligence. 

I’m counting on our shit media to make it a contest.  They did it to Hillary in 2008 and 2016.  They will absolutely do it to Joe Biden. 

The media needs conflict and contests to serve up to the masses.  Hell, they basically got Donald Trump elected.   They’re going to make sure this primary end up being tight because it’s really the only show in town other than freak show in the White House. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,345

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8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m counting on our shit media to make it a contest.  They did it to Hillary in 2008 and 2016.  They will absolutely do it to Joe Biden. 

The media needs conflict and contests to serve up to the masses.  Hell, they basically got Donald Trump elected.   They’re going to make sure this primary end up being tight because it’s really the only show in town other than freak show in the White House. 

Remember, if the media wants to they can absolutely crank up Joe vs Trump early...Trump is all about putting on a show early even if it's not his best move, strategically.  

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Remember, if the media wants to they can absolutely crank up Joe vs Trump early...Trump is all about putting on a show early even if it's not his best move, strategically.  

I think you may have it the other way around or perhaps it’s reciprocal?

 Trump can crank up Joe vs Trump in the media if he wants to.  It’s a way he can control the opposition’s media coverage. 

One big advantage the republicans had in 2016 is they knew exactly who the Democratic nominee was years in advance.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,345

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I think you may have it the other way around or perhaps it’s reciprocal?

 Trump can crank up Joe vs Trump in the media if he wants to.  It’s a way he can control the opposition’s media coverage. 

One big advantage the republicans had in 2016 is they knew exactly who the Democratic nominee was years in advance.  

It's definitely reciprocal.  I don't trust the media for shit.  A near perfect candidate like the Mayor doesn't draw eyeballs.  They like the gaffes from Uncle Joe and it will be a total shitshow vs Trump...that's the ultimate ratings bonanza.  

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6th Street

6th Street 6,692

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2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Just like to say the polls are worthless right now.  There are reasons Beto’s poll numbers are down.  

1.  He’s not media blitzing like Pete Buttigieg... he’s building a grassroots infrastructure for the long game.  His digital infrastructure is also being organized and it looks good.  

2.  There is ZERO need to be anywhere near the front of the pack right now in the polls if you’re Beto O’Rourke.  He has enough charisma and talent to inflate his numbers by a few points anytime he wants by doing a few media tours.

TV and social media pundits fucking suck because they’re all about the current news cycle, the current poll, and horseshit like electability.  They ignore the long game and quickly forget that Trump wasn’t even a candidate yet at this time in 2015.  Marathon not a sprint. 

Good article on Beto's struggles. He has little name recognition outside of Texas and he doesn't really fill any void or resonate with any particular voter bloc. Just another white dude.

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/05/11/politics/beto-orourke-poll-of-the-week/index.html

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Good article on Beto's struggles. He has little name recognition outside of Texas and he doesn't really fill any void or resonate with any particular voter bloc. Just another white dude.

https://www-m.cnn.com/2019/05/11/politics/beto-orourke-poll-of-the-week/index.html

Oh, so he’s like a young Joe Biden. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,367

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11 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Trump also essentially led wire to wire beginning shortly after he officially announced as a candidate.  

Good point.  That phenomenon is really an indictment on how weak the Republican Party was at the time.  Looking back at the field of Cruz, Graham, Rand, Kasich, Rubio, Jeb!, and Ben Carson; it’s no wonder a professional conman like Trump so easily took over.  

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,225

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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Good point.  That phenomenon is really an indictment on how weak the Republican Party was at the time.  Looking back at the field of Cruz, Graham, Rand, Kasich, Rubio, Jeb!, and Ben Carson; it’s no wonder a professional conman like Trump so easily took over.  

i was about to say - other than the unusually large size of the field, there weren't many similarities to what we have now.

which makes it even more frustrating if some of this talent doesn't get out in time to run for senate.

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zork

zork 629

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I think there are more similarities than you assume.  Warren and Mayor Pete are the only 2 in the whole giant field that I have confidence could bring more to the table than typical politician speak if necessary.  There are a lot of vapid mediocrities in there that wouldn’t handle being taken out of their element any better than Marco Rubio.  Nor is there really some magnetic force of nature personality.  Shit, Bernie is probably the closest thing to that - and he’s not really that.

Seems to me the same cabal that pied pipered Trump into the lead has decided Biden is the best way forward.  Lots of press pushing him and the polls reflect it.  He's the guy to take down the Dotard.  Only thing left is to see which bridesmaid is picked to take on Pence.

 

Not that it matters to time traveling Trump/Pence:

https://www.google.com/search?q=time+traveling+pence&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS773US773&oq=time+traveling+pence&aqs=chrome..69i57.3949j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Edited by zork
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,225

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4 hours ago, zork said:

Seems to me the same cabal that pied pipered Trump into the lead has decided Biden is the best way forward.  Lots of press pushing him and the polls reflect it.  He's the guy to take down the Dotard.  Only thing left is to see which bridesmaid is picked to take on Pence.

 

Not that it matters to time traveling Trump/Pence:

https://www.google.com/search?q=time+traveling+pence&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS773US773&oq=time+traveling+pence&aqs=chrome..69i57.3949j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

uninformed americans feed the polls.  the media reports the polls, which of course feeds back into the next polls.  vicious cycle.

biden has 100% name recognition.  i don't think anyone has unilaterally decided anything from the media's side, just the crowdsourcing coming from the 55+ crowd that answers landline calls and speaks to pollsters.

and once the media started reporting things like "electability vs trump", they were able to run with the biden story.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12,271

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Mayor Pete at zero percent among the blacks, even early, is very telling and probably dooms his candidacy. 

Said it before but because of their own experience of discrimination, the blacks don’t have a lot of sympathy for the gays. 

Unless beto takes off, which I doubt, it’s starting to look like a four horse race with Biden the clear favorite. You can’t win the dem primary without the blacks. Right now they’re in Biden’s corner. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12,271

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1 minute ago, texastough said:

I say this with love -- you keep referring to "the blacks" and its making me cringe. Simply "blacks" will do just fine. 

Yeah you’re probably right. But hey, I grew up in an era where the bad news bears got made as a mainstream movie with no controversy at all. So consider it some progress. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21,784

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Just now, JimmyJames said:

No doubt that’s a factor. But yang has 3 percent to mayor Petes zero. How many even know who yang is? I barely do and I follow this stuff. 

Pete's zero is a concern.

What's Beto's excuse for barely registering with anyone?

Bernie with 98% name recognition but trailing Buttigieg with white voters isn't a story? 

I'm just saying there's a lot more look at with these numbers than Pete's failure so far with SC black voters. 

 

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