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2020 Democratic Nominee

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted (edited)

It Wasn’t a Bounce. Biden’s Support is Growing

"Let’s start with the obligatory disclaimers and caveats and blah blah. It’s very early. The first caucuses and primaries are almost 10 months away. But Joe Biden is getting more than a bounce from his campaign launch announcement three weeks ago. The bump in his poll numbers haven’t subsided. His support continues to climb. A pollout over the weekend from South Carolina puts his support at 46% with Bernie Sanders far behind at 15% and three others, Harris (10%), Buttigieg (8%) and Warren (8%), just behind him.

[...]

But it’s not just South Carolina. The trend is national as well. Since Biden’s announcement in late April his support has risen about 10 points and most of it has been at Bernie Sanders’ expense. This chart from RCP is striking.

Spoiler

Screen-Shot-2019-05-13-at-10.07.27-AM-80

[...]

We’re past the point where Biden’s strength can be chalked up to name recognition. Sanders has near universal name recognition too. Is it Obama nostalgia? Maybe. But if it is, that doesn’t mean it’s going to change. To the extent we can glean anything from the polls the reason for Biden’s strength is that Democrats see him as acceptable and most electable. Simple as that. The more activist conversation that dominates Twitter seems to be operating in a different world from the actual Democratic electorate."

cont.

 

 

Edited by triplehorn
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pete's zero is a concern.

What's Beto's excuse for barely registering with anyone?

Bernie with 98% name recognition but trailing Buttigieg with white voters isn't a story? 

I'm just saying there's a lot more look at with these numbers than Pete's failure so far with SC black voters. 

 

Of course there is. Black voters (see I’m learning) do not appear to like Beto all that much right now. I don’t find this much surprising. He’s a white guy born into privilege with a Hispanic nickname. Not exactly the winning ticket to win over the black vote. 

Bernie behind mayor Pete among the whites (hey I’m white so I can get away with it) is definitely interesting and shows that if mayor Pete can somehow get the black voters behind him he can win. Don’t see it happening though. 

Bernie has always been the wildcard. For reasons he’s not as popular as Hillary was or Biden among the black voters, but while liked by the whites, is definitely not beloved except among the millineos. 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

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14 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

To the extent we can glean anything from the polls the reason for Biden’s strength is that Democrats see him as acceptable and most electable. Simple as that.

Wasn't that why Hillary was chosen vs. Bernie last go 'round?

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Once he became known and a viable candidate, Bernie always polled better versus trump than Hillary did. If the dems chose Hillary due to electability then they’re idiots.

They didn’t. Hillary nomination was a preordained coronation by the dems. And we’re all paying the price for that decision. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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23 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Hillary was chosen because she got four million more votes than Bernie 

So nominations are based on popular vote....or are they based on delegates?  Electoral College is evil but the Clinton-based system of regular and super-delegates is completely fair and beyond reproach?  

(don't get me wrong, she had more votes than Bernie).  

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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9 minutes ago, Lobo said:

So nominations are based on popular vote....or are they based on delegates?  Electoral College is evil but the Clinton-based system of regular and super-delegates is completely fair and beyond reproach?  

(don't get me wrong, she had more votes than Bernie).  

The 4 million more vote canard also ignores the dem primary caucuses, all of which Bernie won. 

When Bernie beat Hillary in the Michigan dem primary despite being a huge underdog alarm bells should have been going off all over in the DNC. Instead it was ignored.

Guess who was apparently paying attention? Two guesses and one of them is currently in prison and the others is rage tweeting from a super nice shitter with a Big Mac stuffed in his face. 

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Pancho

Pancho 46301

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Some members of the CBC are torn on whether to support Biden (because if his lead and pols against trump) or support their members in Harris and Booker. 

 

Because of this, some members are considering pushing a Biden/Harris ticket

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Once he became known and a viable candidate, Bernie always polled better versus trump than Hillary did. If the dems chose Hillary due to electability then they’re idiots.

They didn’t. Hillary nomination was a preordained coronation by the dems. And we’re all paying the price for that decision. 

I tend to agree with this.  Bernie always polling better versus Trump than Hillary probably had more to do with Hillary's negatives being more prominent - with unprecedented multifaceted amplification - than Bernie's.  But today, again, it's those pesky negatives that are relevant.  If/when the full force of right wing turrets get aimed at Bernie, it could get really ugly for him.

This recent poll Rolling Stone wrote about shows Sanders, Tulsi Gabbard and de Blasio, as being the most disliked.  That may be the pre-requisite needed for a successful negative social media campaign, to seed the crystal so to speak.  

Biden may not have the best or most inspiring policies, but he's rapidly appearing to be the most electable candidate.

Kamala Harris has among the lowest "not considering" ratings.

Biden/Harris would be even harder to defeat.

 

 

 

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26439

Posted
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1 hour ago, Pancho Negro said:

Some members of the CBC are torn on whether to support Biden (because if his lead and pols against trump) or support their members in Harris and Booker. 

Because of this, some members are considering pushing a Biden/Harris ticket

Biden/Harris. Biden resigns after 3 months due to stress. Boom, Trumped.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

it was her turn.

the dems had 8 years to come up with something better and they failed.  plenty of blame to go around.

But hey those Republicans really knocked it out of the park with Donald Trump. 

Point is we get the leaders we deserve.  Hillary was the least bad option but it’s clearly the democrats fault we have Trump as president because the democrats failed. 

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Js1

Js1 87181

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Biden/Harris. Biden resigns after 3 months due to stress. Boom, Trumped.

I'd vote for this scenario to happen right now, numerous times, and I'll bring all my illegals to vote for it too.  Multiple times.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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14 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

But hey those Republicans really knocked it out of the park with Donald Trump. 

Point is we get the leaders we deserve.  Hillary was the least bad option but it’s clearly the democrats fault we have Trump as president because the democrats failed. 

are you suggesting that the democrats succeeded?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13519

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Also, while Bernie and Biden are both 700 years old each, their voter bases...

Sanders currently leads Biden among 18-29 year old voters, by an impressive 41% to 11%. However, Sanders’ support weakens with age: 30-49 year olds only break for Sanders 29% to 26%, as compared to 50-64 year olds who break for Biden 42% to 19%. Among those over 65, Biden has a strong lead, beating Sanders 52% to 7%.

Old people LOVE Joe Biden.

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gmr548

gmr548 16697

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Posted
Also, while Bernie and Biden are both 700 years old each, their voter bases...
Sanders currently leads Biden among 18-29 year old voters, by an impressive 41% to 11%. However, Sanders’ support weakens with age: 30-49 year olds only break for Sanders 29% to 26%, as compared to 50-64 year olds who break for Biden 42% to 19%. Among those over 65, Biden has a strong lead, beating Sanders 52% to 7%.
Old people LOVE Joe Biden.

Being the preferred candidate of the generation that has led the country to where we are today should probably be an immediate disqualifier.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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troph

troph 25224

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Posted
Mayor Pete at zero percent among the blacks, even early, is very telling and probably dooms his candidacy. 
Said it before but because of their own experience of discrimination, the blacks don’t have a lot of sympathy for the gays. 
Unless beto takes off, which I doubt, it’s starting to look like a four horse race with Biden the clear favorite. You can’t win the dem primary without the blacks. Right now they’re in Biden’s corner. 


Black folks are not a monolith nor are their positions simple and lacking nuance. My experience in the trenches of the HERO ordinance and watching that train wreck happen in Houston was a little different - same outcome. Outside rich white gays took the lead and didn’t listen to the local queer communities of color in Houston. And when gays are seen as rich white men it’s disastrous, in part because of white versus black but also because nothing stronger is presented to overcome socially conservative upbringings. When the gay is their gay then it often changes - or changes enough to make the seemingly universal bias against the white gay man falter quite a bit.
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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21780

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2 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I'm looking forward to the outrage that is going to ensue when the primary debates finally start and only 5/20 Dem candidates get to participate.  Or will they lower the polling % participation threshold?

Aren’t there already 10 + that have qualified for the debates? They’ve already said they will split up the debates over 2 nights to accommodate the large pool of potential candidates.

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Js1

Js1 87181

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6 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I'm looking forward to the outrage that is going to ensue when the primary debates finally start and only 5/20 Dem candidates get to participate.  Or will they lower the polling % participation threshold?

What a dumb fucking take, are you some kind of regard all the time or just on the internet? 

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Aren’t there already 10 + that have qualified for the debates? They’ve already said they will split up the debates over 2 nights to accommodate the large pool of potential candidates.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/democratic-candidates-qualified-debates_n_5cd1c531e4b0e4d757394178

18 already have qualified for 20 spots.  If more than 20 qualify, it will go by polling average.

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Js1

Js1 87181

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3 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Well only 2 more then. I need Marianne Williamson on that stage.

But the problem is more (god I hope not) individuals jumping in.  Michael Bennett and Bullock from Montana just recently jumped in. 
Don't worry, by virtue of donors, Marianne has qualified! 

Quote

Who’s qualified by both polling and donors:

1 Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

2 Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)

3 Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)

4 Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) of South Bend, Indiana

5 Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)

6 Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)

7 Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)

8 Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii)

9 Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.)

 

10 Former Obama housing chief Julián Castro (D)

11 Businessman Andrew Yang (D)

Who’s qualified just by polls:

12 Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)

13 Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D)

14 Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)

15 Former Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.)

16 Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio)

17 Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.)

Who’s qualified just by donors:

18 Author Marianne Williamson

Bennett, Gravel, Moulton and Mayor Wayne (lol) have not qualified.  Bullock has not qualified yet either. 

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JimmyHoffa

JimmyHoffa 1188

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5 hours ago, Fozzz said:

I like that she calls out Haley in particular.

 

 

 

She was on Joe Rogan's podcast yesterday for 2 1/2 hours and sounded like the most sane and down to earth politician I have heard in a long time. 

Actually talked about working with the GASP GOP to get shit down. Great listen. 

 

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bernorange

bernorange 8385

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Posted

Thanks for the link JS1.  I don't generally follow news about the DNC and honestly had no idea that this was already in the works.  Looks like they learned a lesson from the GOP clown show the last few cycles (where the cutoff was a polling average of at least 5%).

It's going to be hard to divide stage time amongst 20 candidates fairly.  If they (media hosting the debates) use the same formula as in the past (GOP clown show), stage time will be apportioned loosely based upon polling numbers. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13519

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Williamson's "trap your enemies in a golden egg of conscious intentions" move is one of the most ambitious and transformational foreign policy strategies in American history. Hard to ignore.

Not sure I'm OK with her saying Ma Anand Sheela should head up the USDA.

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JimmyHoffa

JimmyHoffa 1188

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3 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Thanks for the link JS1.  I don't generally follow news about the DNC and honestly had no idea that this was already in the works.  Looks like they learned a lesson from the GOP clown show the last few cycles (where the cutoff was a polling average of at least 5%).

It's going to be hard to divide stage time amongst 20 candidates fairly.  If they (media hosting the debates) use the same formula as in the past (GOP clown show), stage time will be apportioned loosely based upon polling numbers. 

 

The problem which is already starting to happen is the media gets to decide who sits at the adult table and who sits at the kids table. Sad to say this but it's Biden's nom to lose at this point unless he fucks up or someone comes out of left field to become the media's flavor of the month. 

Polling this early means jack shit but looking at the media mentions gives you a pretty good idea who moves the needle. Yes, this can still change and we are a long way out but still way more interesting and telling than early polls. 

Cable News Is Covering Biden As Much As Every Other Democratic Candidate Combined

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/cable-news-is-covering-biden-as-much-as-every-other-democratic-candidate-combined/

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bolverk

bolverk 30323

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23 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Pete is a step-father who is WAY too interested in his step-daughter's slumber party. Beto is a drug kingpin (i.e., awesome). Joe is the owner of a drinking straw factory. Bernie needs to be arrested immediately and sent to Guantanamo.

You should click the twitter link. That dude does mustaches on EVERYONE.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

Pete is a step-father who is WAY too interested in his step-daughter's slumber party. Beto is a drug kingpin (i.e., awesome). Joe is the owner of a drinking straw factory. Bernie needs to be arrested immediately and sent to Guantanamo.

uh, bernie has rolled up aces over kings. and he fucking knows it. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29225

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Here's your leading candidate. This isn't "57 states", this is another thing entirely. He isn't all there. He's not mentally holding it together. I don't think that's any impediment to victory, but it's just a good thing to know.

 

it's like trump's looking into a mirror.

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F250

F250 29200

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Here's your leading candidate. This isn't "57 states", this is another thing entirely. He isn't all there. He's not mentally holding it together. I don't think that's any impediment to victory, but it's just a good thing to know.

 

Eh, Trump is a functional retard, this isn't that bad compared to the stream of nonsense that flows from the Donald.

n1v7kslxhmy5dq0mo55o.gif

 

With that said, Biden is ass, my dude.

 

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