2020 Democratic Nominee

[Hank Scorpio 17,729]

The only reason Pete is running is to get the fuck out of South Bend. Jesus fuck that place sucks. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

[bad_teammate 13,215]

This board gets so horny for single polls that look bad for Bernie. lol

RCP - Iowa polling average

[Js1 85,400]

No, this board gets "so horny" for recent polls.

Polls 2 weeks before the debate don't mean as much as post-debate polls.

Rolling averages with polls from a month ago are worthless.  30 days in politics is basically 6 months. 

[406W30th 1,111]

19 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

The only reason Pete is running is to get the fuck out of South Bend. Touchdown Jesus fuck that place sucks. 

Slight correction

[Chuckie Finster 22,699]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No, this board gets "so horny" for recent polls.

Polls 2 weeks before the debate don't mean as much as post-debate polls.

Rolling averages with polls from a month ago are worthless.  30 days in politics is basically 6 months. 

Weird, you'd think someone with nearly 8,000 political posts on here would know this? 

Edited July 2, 2019 by Chuckie Finster

[Hank Scorpio 17,729]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No, this board gets "so horny" for recent polls.

Polls 2 weeks before the debate don't mean as much as post-debate polls.

Rolling averages with polls from a month ago are worthless.  30 days in politics is basically 6 months. 

I get horny for ALL polls motherfucker. Pour a nice glass of cab, put on some Traci Chapman, and just go to town on Quinnipiac or Rasmussen or even a Fox News poll if I'm feeling fucking crazy. 

[Anastasis 23,475]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

I could be wrong, but what I see in the polls is that the only one steadily building is Warren.   Everyone else seems to be going up or down based on news cycles.   That doesn't mean anything is set in stone, and Harris can certainly build on her rebound all the way to the nomination.   But I think Warren's steady improvement reflects something more solid.

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

35 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

You mean Not-A-Negro, Pocahontas, and...well...you know.

I don't really have a candidate. I haven't given a dime to any of them. All I did was look at the available data and saw Biden in the lead. That's rapidly disappearing. Biden's worst enemy is himself. He's stubborn enough to not listen to advisers. He doesn't have a good grasp of modern media. Harris and Warren don't have that problem. I'd be fine with either of them. I'll still vote for Biden if he pulls out of the tailspin and gets his head in the game and wins it. The ones with a good ground game irl and online are going to stick. And Bernie bros that means not alienating large swathes of voters by being dickheads.

[Js1 85,400]

Biden is running the Hillary 2016 and it shows.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

13 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

I could be wrong, but what I see in the polls is that the only one steadily building is Warren.   Everyone else seems to be going up or down based on news cycles.   That doesn't mean anything is set in stone, and Harris can certainly build on her rebound all the way to the nomination.   But I think Warren's steady improvement reflects something more solid.

Almost like Warren had a plan to run for President. 

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

12 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Almost like Warren had a plan to run for President. 

No question, and the centerpiece was her investment in Iowa.  That said, I think she called an audible in refusing to have big donor events, which is why her fundraising chair quit.   It remains to be seen whether she can generate enough money from individual small donors to keep up.  She's staked her campaign on it, which at the very least takes a lot of guts, because she doesn't have the established following Bernie has, and even he's being outraised by Mayor Pete.   The plan right now seems to be slow and steady and be positioned as the compromise candidate for backers of Bernie, Biden, and Harris while they eat each other alive. 

Edited July 2, 2019 by Mojo Hand

[Js1 85,400]

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

And she didn't even speak Spanish in the debates. What in tarnation

[BradInATX 9,208]

Hispanics: "we are looking for substance, not someone who panders to us by speaking shitty Spanish"

Hillbilly Trump voters: "hay tawlks lahk us hail yeah mahn"

[Bozo_Casanova 26,488]

Maybe Booker and Beto should have spoken ... despacito

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[6th Street 6,413]

Biden needs a strong performance in Debate 2 to reverse the negative momentum. Would also be helpful if he capitulates on his prior stance regarding 1960s busing, and admitted he was on the wrong side of it. 

[Hank Kingsley 20,967]

He’ll whiff on both. People like Biden don’t apologize for anything. 

[406W30th 1,111]

Biden will absolutely double down on his previous positions like he always does.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

This Harris post debate surge is fascinating.  She was going nowhere until she went after Biden and that’s all it took?  Really?  

She must have already been on a lot of people’s radar but they just needed a good excuse to jump to her.   

Another thing this demonstrated was how fragile Biden’s support is.  Voters are looking to be led by someone that wants to fight.  That’s also reassuring because offensive firepower will be needed against the GOP in 2020.  

The only criticism I have is this attack by Harris was more playing hardball politics than something rooted in a strong conviction to her values.  It’s all in the game so props to Harris but I’d like to see more enthusiasm for what she intends to fight for instead of well calculated sniping against the people getting in her way. 

[Js1 85,400]

Both your first and second points are correct.

She was on a lot of 2nd choice lists, very high "considering" numbers.   I think she was the #2 choice for most Biden voters as well.  They seemed to have naturally gravitated towards her. 

His support is absolutely fragile.  He was the guy with the highest name rec in a crowded field where most people weren't paying attention until the debates.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,488]

11 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Biden needs a strong performance in Debate 2 to reverse the negative momentum. Would also be helpful if he capitulates on his prior stance regarding 1960s busing, and admitted he was on the wrong side of it. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

He’ll whiff on both. People like Biden don’t apologize for anything. 

The crazy thing is that he doesn't have to apologize. Here's all he has to do:

"I'm honored to have served our country in the Senate for such a long time. But the country has changed since the early 1970s and I have changed too, in the same way that my friend Barack came around on same sex marriage."

[Hank Scorpio 17,729]

55 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

The one thing that unifies the Latino and African American communities is their complete disinterest in Mayor Pete. 

[Js1 85,400]

16 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Biden needs a strong performance in Debate 2 to reverse the negative momentum. Would also be helpful if he capitulates on his prior stance regarding 1960s busing, and admitted he was on the wrong side of it. 

Gonna be a long 28 more days for Biden until debate #2. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,488]

4 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

The one thing that unifies the Latino and African American communities is their complete disinterest in Mayor Pete. 

He should open the next debate in Norwegian

[Js1 85,400]

told ya 

[Fozzz 152]

white ppl are at it again

 

Although Mayor Pete deservedly gets hit for only having white supporters, Warren has a bigger spread between whites and blacks than Pete.  Why doesn't she get hit over this as well? 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Although Mayor Pete deservedly gets hit for only having white supporters, Warren has a bigger spread between whites and blacks than Pete.  Why doesn't she get hit over this as well? 

Because she was gaining ground with black voters until being undercut with Harris’s performance.    The black support was never with Pete. They were and still are in the process of warming up to Warren. 

[Fozzz 152]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Because she was gaining ground with black voters until being undercut with Harris’s performance.    The black support was never with Pete. They were and still are in the process of warming up to Warren. 

You have anything to back this up?

[Bozo_Casanova 26,488]

Hickenlooper death watch update:

How not to make a pitch:

Quote

In an email to supporters Monday, Hickenlooper said, “Thanks to this team, we crossed the finish line of last night’s June fundraising sprint in great shape.”

Asked about his fundraising in the interview with MSNBC, however, Hickenlooper conceded “we certainly haven’t raised $24 million,” a reference to second-quarter sums reported by the campaigns of South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

“I’m not going to get into it until we pull the numbers together,” he added. “But the bottom line is for a small campaign like us … it’s harder to raise money because we’re not promising free health care or, you know, to forgive free tuition for everyone, forgive student debt.”

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

told ya 

In before the “Is Harris peaking too early?” talking points. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

3 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

You have anything to back this up?

Yeah, just go look at some polling data over the past month. Pick any of them. 

[bad_teammate 13,215]

lol fuck

Beto, get out and run for Senate

Hick, get out and run for Senate

Bullock, get out and run for Senate

[Fozzz 152]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Yeah, just go look at some polling data over the past month. Pick any of them. 

The earlier Quinnipiac polls don't appear to break down white/black support, but Warren has consistently had the biggest difference in support between white and non-white respondents.  For instance, in the Quinnipiac poll conducted back in May, Warren was 16% with whites and 8% with non-whites.  No one else was even close in the white bias of their supporters.  

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us05212019_uhlw22.pdf/

[Js1 85,400]

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

lol fuck

Beto, get out and run for Senate

Hick, get out and run for Senate

Bullock, get out and run for Senate

Beto, yes.

Hick, no.  The Dem field in Colorado is amazing.

Bullock doesn't want the job.  Unless he can convince himself and the state he really does want it now, meh. 

[Js1 85,400]

 

[Fozzz 152]

Tulsi tied with Beta!

[bad_teammate 13,215]

This makes sense. I agree with this.

 

[Hank Scorpio 17,729]

20 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

This makes sense. I agree with this.

 

You leftists just don't understand politics or economics. 

 

[bad_teammate 13,215]

4 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

You leftists just don't understand politics or economics. 

When you cut the head off a billionaire you put all the blood in a bucket and give it to Student Loan Company, INC and then they forgive all the debts. That's economics.

[bad_teammate 13,215]

Bernie i need you to get control of your staffers, please

 

[Hank Kingsley 20,967]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Because she was gaining ground with black voters until being undercut with Harris’s performance.    The black support was never with Pete. They were and still are in the process of warming up to Warren. 

Buttigieg had a nice little bump with SC black voters from 0% to 6% before the SB shooting. 

 

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

58 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Beto, yes.

Hick, no.  The Dem field in Colorado is amazing.

Bullock doesn't want the job.  Unless he can convince himself and the state he really does want it now, meh. 

How often do people drop out of the Presidential primary and have success running for Congress in the same election?  Seems like a harsh about face.

[Js1 85,400]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

How often do people drop out of the Presidential primary and have success running for Congress in the same election?  Seems like a harsh about face.

Rubio, if going by something recently. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

 

Sanders' recent nosedive is actually a positive for his campaign. With all of the white people abandoning him in droves, his polling numbers amongst minorities finally look better than his polling numbers with whites. Remember when you called us all Bernie Bros? Who's laughing now, bitches?!

Edited July 2, 2019 by BradInATX

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[Js1 85,400]

LOL woah white suburban moms do not like Beto anymore.  Goodness, -45 with Indivisible. 

[elfenix 34,307]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Warren Administration has a nice ring to it. 

I will say this, Liz has the short and sweet messaging down.

”Nevertheless, She Persisted.” 

“I have a plan for that.”

”Yes we plan!”