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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted
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Indivisible is one of the best vehicles for the "resistance mom" vote that decided the midterms for Dems. They're mostly women, largely white, living in suburbs and exurbs outside the lefty coastal bubbles. Dems NEED these voters to win.

This is 100% false bullshit. White women voted 53% for Trump and that's even higher for the "suburbs and exurbs". In the MASSIVE wave year of the 2018 midterm elections, white women went 49% for the Republican candidates (and 49% Democratic). An actual rapist president putting in a sure-to-overturn-Roe Supreme Court couldn't even get white women to abandon the Republicans.

This is the exact same line Hillary's campaign took for the 2016 election.

“For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.” - Chuck Schumer, explaining the 2016 Democratic strategy of going hard after the professional class white vote.

Gee, I wonder why a highly-educated white liberal woman might think the Democratic party NEEDS highly-educated white liberal women to win?

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

damn straight

 

 

"Leadership means having the courage to speak out when no one else will, to be driven by morality, not partisanship."

For sure. I've always had a ton of respect for the fact that Bernie was saying a lot of these things before other people were, when it wasn't politically expedient. I wish we had more of that in DC. A lot more. His vote against the Iraq war in 2002 was ballsy and bad ass.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)

Here is the Politifact article that lays out why the 50% claim is wrong, in excruciating detail, with sources and links. Just in case you woke up this morning and your brain was replaced one which cares about facts and details, and you're interested in reading: https://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2019/jul/02/jess-mcintosh/cnn-panelist-misses-mark-gop-support-medicare-all/

They are completely right that the 50% claim is misleading and false. It is not a grand conspiracy. There are a couple of candidates that are pushing wildly unpopular policy.

Edited by BradInATX
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)

I respect Bernie for fighting the good fight but his campaign is in deep shit.  He was holding down something like 46% of democrats in 2016 and now he’s struggling to stay above 10% in most places.  He is still raising good money tho...

The fall of Biden doesn’t really help him either since he’s not picking up the lost support. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The media has been actively trying to sink Bernie for 2+ months now.

Who could have predicted the Berners would cry foul when things went South?

Bernie probably got more interview face time than any other politician in the MSM since the 2016 election.  Seems like I couldn’t go a week without seeing him on CNN/MSNBC or one of the Sunday morning shows. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Here is the Politifact article that lays out why the 50% claim is wrong, in excruciating detail, with sources and links. Just in case you woke up this morning and your brain was replaced one which cares about facts and details, and you're interested in reading: https://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2019/jul/02/jess-mcintosh/cnn-panelist-misses-mark-gop-support-medicare-all/

They are completely right that the 50% claim is misleading and false. It is not a grand conspiracy. There are a couple of candidates that are pushing wildly unpopular policy.

The majority of the polls they link show Republican support for Medicare for All at 50%+.

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I respect Bernie for fighting the good fight but his campaign is in deep shit.

He's the clear #2 in polling averages and has more money and supporters than any other candidate (that has announced).

He's not dominating the field, but the idea that he's in "deep shit" is a joke.

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 Bernie probably got more interview face time than any other politician in the MSM since the 2016 election.  Seems like I couldn’t go a week without seeing him on CNN/MSNBC or one of the Sunday morning shows. 

It's not about simple face time, it's about the fact that the entire corporate media establishment has been knives-out for him for months at this point. Media coverage largely drives polling, especially this early in a cycle (see Warren's recent rise, which happened when the media started showering her with (deserved) positive coverage, see Harris's recent rise after having her debate highlights shown and praised ad nauseum).

If Bernie's campaign was actually collapsing, he wouldn't have raised $2M in one day (June 30th) and have 1 million individual donations just for Q2.

The media and donor classes hate him; that's just how it is. Are you really pretending they don't?

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The media and donor classes hate him; that's just how it is. Are you really pretending they don't?

Mr. “I welcome their hatred” hasn’t exactly been a beacon of hope in the olive branch department either.  I understand that’s his appeal tho.

It is what it is.  He’s ideological pure which is rare and I respect him for that but his old curmudgeon and cranky demeanor is also his weakness.   Too much bad blood from the 2016 election, I imagine most people want to move on. 

It’s sad that our politics is more about personalities as opposed to ideas but these are the breaks.  Don’t hate the player, hate the game.  Bernie has done so much good for the party over the past four years but he needs to come to accept it will never be his party.   The best he can do is keep fighting for his ideas and help support those that do.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Mr. “I welcome their hatred” hasn’t exactly been a beacon of hope in the olive branch department either.

So are you acknowledging that the professional media class hates him and is actively working against him or are you still saying they're not?

Because they clearly are.

Quote

Don’t hate the player, hate the game.  Bernie has done so much good for the party over the past four years but he needs to come to accept it will never be his party.   The best he can do is keep fighting for his ideas and help support those that do.  

lol it already is

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted

Mayhaps Bernie just isn’t a great candidate for 2020?   

Even if the media was fawning over Bernie like Biden for the first five months of the year, I’m not sure his fate would be much different. 

Bernie had a great starting position in this election.  He was the clear #2 and the best known alternative to establishment Biden.  Where would he be now if he ran a campaign like Warren quietly churning out well thought out policy and taking a leadership hardline position on impeachment and calling out Fox News for their horseshit?  

He got out flanked by a smarter and more capable leader.  Lucky for him, she’s with him when it comes to the values behind the policy. 

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RayDog

RayDog 682

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Mayhaps Bernie just isn’t a great candidate for 2020?   

Even if the media was fawning over Bernie like Biden for the first five months of the year, I’m not sure his fate would be much different. 

Bernie had a great starting position in this election.  He was the clear #2 and the best known alternative to establishment Biden.  Where would he be now if he ran a campaign like Warren quietly churning out well thought out policy and taking a leadership hardline position on impeachment and calling out Fox News for their horseshit?  

He got out flanked by a smarter and more capable leader.  Lucky for him, she’s with him when it comes to the values behind the policy. 

Bernie was quietly churning out a massive number of policy videos in 2018 and previously in 2016. The problem is they are not news now.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Bernie was quietly churning out a massive number of policy videos in 2018 and previously in 2016. The problem is they are not news now.

He needed to approach 2020 like 2016 never happened and reintroduce himself and his policy ideas.  Our country is ADD as fuck and only remember him as the guy that could have won and got screwed in 16.

Looks like that’s going to be the narrative for 2020 as well. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Mayhaps Bernie just isn’t a great candidate for 2020?  

The million volunteers and donors, $30M in cash, and solid #2 spot in the polls say otherwise.

Quote

Even if the media was fawning over Bernie like Biden for the first five months of the year, I’m not sure his fate would be much different. 

You seriously don't think heavily positive media coverage wouldn't result in an increase in his poll numbers?

You don't need to pretend to be a moron, you're close enough to it already.

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 6th Street said:

Bernie is the first candidate to run on middle class tax increases since Walter Mondale

not the greatest vote winning strategy by Bern. Instead, cut the military by $200 billion and we win in all issues with no taxes.  This is a game changer that no one wants to touch.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted
 

That's absolutely nuts. Warren has been in the real spotlight for half a year and has wrested control of the "issues candidate" label away from a former 8 year vice president and a guy who has been running for president for five years now and singlehandedly changed the Democratic platform more than anyone in my lifetime, at least in my recollection. What an unbelievable job her and her team have done messaging wise. If she can convince people she's electable in the general, she is going to be the nominee.  

 

 

 

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TahoeHorn

TahoeHorn 107

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Black women will choose the Democratic nominee.

White males with a high school degree, living in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will choose the President (with the Dems winning anything remotely resembling a split).

- Right now Biden can attract both those groups but he's a gaffe machine and the hard core Left will undermine him.  Forget Biden.

- Black women dislike homosexuals.  Forget Buttigieg.

- Billy Bob despises Liawatha, and I can't see her being the top choice of Black women.  Forget Spouting Bull.

- Sanders is a nut.  Black women know that.  Forget Bernie.

- Black women will overcome their concerns about Harris and go all in.  She's the nominee.  Book it. 

 

Will Harris be credible with Billy Bob?  Will she have made insane promises of goodies (e.g. open borders, a $2.6T/yr additional medical spending) in the dogfight to become the nominee?  Will trump get even nuttier?  What will have with major events (e.g. the economy, war, Trump fights, Trump legal issues)?  Flip a coin.

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bolverk

bolverk 29397

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Posted
48 minutes ago, TahoeHorn said:

Black women will choose the Democratic nominee.

White males with a high school degree, living in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will choose the President (with the Dems winning anything remotely resembling a split).

- Right now Biden can attract both those groups but he's a gaffe machine and the hard core Left will undermine him.  Forget Biden.

- Black women dislike homosexuals.  Forget Buttigieg.

- Billy Bob despises Liawatha, and I can't see her being the top choice of Black women.  Forget Spouting Bull.

- Sanders is a nut.  Black women know that.  Forget Bernie.

- Black women will overcome their concerns about Harris and go all in.  She's the nominee.  Book it. 

 

Will Harris be credible with Billy Bob?  Will she have made insane promises of goodies (e.g. open borders, a $2.6T/yr additional medical spending) in the dogfight to become the nominee?  Will trump get even nuttier?  What will have with major events (e.g. the economy, war, Trump fights, Trump legal issues)?  Flip a coin.

Stereotype much?

Black Americans are more likely than any other racial or ethnic group to perceive discrimination against gay, lesbian or transgender people.

Nearly three-quarters of black Americans say gay and lesbian (73%) and transgender people (72%) face a lot of discrimination; roughly two-thirds of Hispanics say gay and lesbian (66%) and transgender individuals (67%) encounter discrimination; more than six in ten mixed-race Americans believe gay and lesbian (61%) and transgender people (67%) face discrimination; and a majority of white Americans perceive significant discrimination against gay and lesbian (54%) and transgender people (59%). Notably, fewer than half (49%) of Asian-Pacific Islander (API) Americans believe gay and lesbian people face a great deal of bias, while 55% of API Americans say the same of transgender people.

https://www.prri.org/research/americans-views-discrimination-immigrants-blacks-lgbt-sex-marriage-immigration-reform/

Does Billy Bob not care about Trump's lies regarding his own heritage?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/17/trump-keeps-saying-his-father-was-born-in-germany-he-wasnt

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted (edited)

Good news for Bernie!

Biden’s support continues to skew older, Sanders’ younger: Among leaned Democrats age 50 and older, Biden leads Sanders by a broad 39-11%. Among those younger than 50, Biden’s support falls to 21% and Sanders’ rises to 32%. (There are no such age gaps in support for Warren or Harris.)

Among other group differences, Sanders’ support plummets among the most-educated group, while Warren’s rises with education. And by ideology, Warren does better with liberals compared with moderates. (Biden’s better number among moderates than liberals isn’t statistically significant.)

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26277

Posted
Posted
Black women will choose the Democratic nominee.
White males with a high school degree, living in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will choose the President (with the Dems winning anything remotely resembling a split).
- Right now Biden can attract both those groups but he's a gaffe machine and the hard core Left will undermine him.  Forget Biden.
- Black women dislike homosexuals.  Forget Buttigieg.
- Billy Bob despises Liawatha, and I can't see her being the top choice of Black women.  Forget Spouting Bull.
- Sanders is a nut.  Black women know that.  Forget Bernie.
- Black women will overcome their concerns about Harris and go all in.  She's the nominee.  Book it. 

Harris is my choice for now and has been since she declared, but if Warren is the nominee and wins, will you bow and apologize?
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

She has a plan for that.

Reuters poll out today (2200+ sampled):

Biden: 22 (-8)
Useless Joke Of A Candidate Who Should Drop Out and Pass the Torch: 16 (+1)
Harris: 10 (+4)
Warren: 9 (+1)
Beto: 3 (-1)
Pete: 3 (-2)
Don't Know: 21 (+8, hahaha Joebots' programming broke and they're wandering the aisles trying to find another segregationist-kisser to support)

(polls aren't very useful at this point)

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Js1

Js1 85095

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Posted

Beto's trajectory right now is somewhere between "dumpster" and "rock bottom." 

Just bow out, man.  Have some respect for yourself.  You got pumped up by the media for almost knocking off Cruz, but running for POTUS right now isn't for you. 

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troph

troph 24562

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, TahoeHorn said:

Black women will choose the Democratic nominee.

White males with a high school degree, living in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will choose the President (with the Dems winning anything remotely resembling a split).

- Right now Biden can attract both those groups but he's a gaffe machine and the hard core Left will undermine him.  Forget Biden.

- Black women dislike homosexuals.  Forget Buttigieg.

- Billy Bob despises Liawatha, and I can't see her being the top choice of Black women.  Forget Spouting Bull.

- Sanders is a nut.  Black women know that.  Forget Bernie.

- Black women will overcome their concerns about Harris and go all in.  She's the nominee.  Book it. 

 

Will Harris be credible with Billy Bob?  Will she have made insane promises of goodies (e.g. open borders, a $2.6T/yr additional medical spending) in the dogfight to become the nominee?  Will trump get even nuttier?  What will have with major events (e.g. the economy, war, Trump fights, Trump legal issues)?  Flip a coin.

Doesn’t explain how Obama won two terms and HRC won the popular vote.  Trump won states that you summarily [this class of voter will decide the election] in some cases by less than 100,000 votes.  Trump’s path to reelection is known and narrow, the Dem nominee has multiple ways there.

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