2020 Democratic Nominee

[gmr548 16,503]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

then tom james becomes president?

150mm votes and fucking arizona is gonna decide this thing.

This is the United States of America we're talking about.

We'll get Jonah Ryan and like it.

[bad_teammate 13,132]

3 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

What, you don't think parents are entrepreneurs because they have kids?!

The neoliberal's need to justify a human's existence by arguing, "NO, REALLY! THIS HUMAN IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY, I SWEAR!" never fails to make me ragey.

Quote

I agree with most of what you said, but I think he came off a little bit better than you're giving him credit for – ridiculous, egregious use of "entrepreneur" aside – and I like how he explains the pending labor crisis. No one else is even talking about it. 

Well no one is making his arguments exactly, because he's doing A LOT of extrapolating and predicting and his solutions to these predicted problems are not inspirational.

He IS one of the few candidates with something unique to say, however, and he's actually adding something to the discussion and I think he genuinely believes he sees something specific and wants to work on it.

[TDunk 590]

Ohio also had the gerrymandering case struck down, so a win for GOP.  Outside of the C-cities (Columbus, Cincy, Cleveland) and Toledo,  the state is rural and white.  So unless colleges and universities have a GOTV movement,  expect R.    

 

Edit: Electoral college wise.  

Edited July 26, 2019 by TDunk
EC is POS

[bolverk 29,399]

4 minutes ago, TDunk said:

Ohio also had the gerrymandering case struck down, so a win for GOP.  Outside of the C-cities (Columbus, Cincy, Cleveland) and Toledo,  the state is rural and white.  So unless colleges and universities have a GOTV movement,  expect R.    

 

Edit: Electoral college wise.  

You forgot Dayton, but that's understandable. There's nothing memorable about Dayton.

[TDunk 590]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

You forgot Dayton, but that's understandable. There's nothing memorable about Dayton.

Just the traffic, since big butter Jesus was struck down.  

[bolverk 29,399]

1 minute ago, TDunk said:

Just the traffic, since big butter Jesus was struck down.  

Background on "big butter Jesus" needed. I've only been to Dayton once, and if that was a thing, I've forgotten (much like the rest of my visit there).

[TDunk 590]

12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Background on "big butter Jesus" needed. I've only been to Dayton once, and if that was a thing, I've forgotten (much like the rest of my visit there).

Off of I-75 just south of Dayton, a church built a structure that was struck by lightening.  Heywood Banks had a song about it on Bob & Tom.  

Visual:

 

[James Knox Polk 11]

46 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

 

so which kamala staffer gets credit for planting a story in vf that "the gop fears that kamala could be another obama"?

kamala harris : not a nutjob

i can already see the bumper stickers.

Obama is one of the greatest public speakers of our time.  Harris cannot string 3 sentences together without backtracking or contradicting herself.  Big difference.

[bolverk 29,399]

1 minute ago, TDunk said:

Off of I-75 just south of Dayton, a church built a structure that was struck by lightening.  Heywood Banks had a song about it on Bob & Tom.  

Visual:

 

Man, I wish I would've seen/noticed that. Then, I'd actually have a memory of the built environment of the place (visited extended family there once around 2010-2011). We even took a drive down to Cincinnati. 

[Larry T. Spider 1,740]

If a bunch of old, uneducated, white people in Wisconsin give us trump for another four years, I’m going scorched earth.

[TDunk 590]

12 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Man, I wish I would've seen/noticed that. Then, I'd actually have a memory of the built environment of the place (visited extended family there once around 2010-2011). We even took a drive down to Cincinnati. 

If you went to Cincy, this might help.  (Not a fan).

 

 

Edit:  Team Warren.

Edited July 26, 2019 by TDunk
I suck

[bolverk 29,399]

12 minutes ago, TDunk said:

If you went to Cincy, this might help.  (Not a fan).

 

 

Edit:  Team Warren.

I tried Skyline and, well, it left me bewildered.

Edit: Also Team Warren.

Edited July 26, 2019 by bolverk

[Js1 85,104]

So Trump's OMG HIGHEST EVAH approval ratings of ~44% = 39-42% of the vote against the top 4 candidates

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-july-25

Biden 49-39
Sanders 46-40
Harris 40-41
Warren 41-42
(I would hazard that Harris/Warren fall into the "not everyone knows them" category unlike Biden and Sanders with near universal name recognition)

Oh and for the all OMG THEY ARE ALL TOO FAR LEFT 

Do you feel the candidates running for the Democratic presidential nomination for too liberal, too conservative or just right?

40% too liberal
37% just right

SUBURBAN WOMEN: 44% just right; 31% too liberal 

Shocking, the people who find the Democratics "too liberal" are rural folks, uneducated whites, Trump supporters and the rich. Shocking, I know. 

Edited July 26, 2019 by Js1

[GSU&UT 1,798]

I have a very hard time people don't know who Warren is at this point given the attacks on her heritage since well before she entered this race, Kamala maybe.

[Js1 85,104]

2 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I have a very hard time people don't know who Warren is at this point given the attacks on her heritage since well before she entered this race, Kamala maybe.

Gallup had the "no opinion" for Harris and Warren around 30%.   Bernie and Biden were half that. 

[Js1 85,104]

“I got mine” - Joe Biden’s message 

 

[Patrick Bateman 3,903]

Liz joins Bernie with over a million unique donations.

 

[henrygandorf 29,174]

 

[Js1 85,104]

Love it. 

[tantric superman 4,667]

[bad_teammate 13,132]

4 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

I have a very hard time people don't know who Warren is at this point given the attacks on her heritage since well before she entered this race, Kamala maybe.

Morning Consult: "Never Heard Of"

Biden & Bernie - ~1-2%
Warren: 9%
Harris: 14%

[Js1 85,104]

3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Morning Consult: "Never Heard Of"

Biden & Bernie - ~1-2%
Warren: 9%
Harris: 14%

Which is just within the Democratic primary, right?

Gallup had their no opinions around 30%.  Bernie and Biden around 10-15%.  I assume that was national. 

[bad_teammate 13,132]

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Which is just within the Democratic primary, right?

Gallup had their no opinions around 30%.  Bernie and Biden around 10-15%.  I assume that was national. 

Yeah, must've been.

[Message Board User 12,389]

 

[bad_teammate 13,132]

How 'bout I take you to Smoothie King, girl... you can get all the add-ins you want

 

[Js1 85,104]

Biden leads the field, but he's not as well liked as Warren/Harris and his support is lukewarm.  They're just less well known.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/29/8931604/elizabeth-warren-kamala-harris-2020-election-democrats

Vote for: Biden 25, Warren 23, Harris 17, Bernie 16
Would like to hang out with: Warren 13, Pete 12, Harris 11, Sanders 11, Biden 10
Excited about: Harris 17, Warren, 17, Sanders 13, Biden/Pete 12
 

Favorability (strongly): 
Warren 41% of men, 40% of women
Harris 34% of men, 32% of women
Biden: 22% men, 26% women

[Underdog 28,451]

16 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

How 'bout I take you to Smoothie King, girl... you can get all the add-ins you want

 

[Patrick Bateman 3,903]

I'm definitely convinced.  I doubt Bernie or Joe could do mountain climbers!

 

[Hank Kingsley 20,680]

Serenity now

 

[Js1 85,104]

LOL Beto is tied with a dude who made circumcision part of his platform.

[tantric superman 4,667]

Curious to see how Castro does in the debate.

I'm starting to feel like like, fuck it, give the Stanford/Harvard Mexican American a chance.  

I haven't really taken him seriously but I'm assuming he has relatively low negatives among the hoi polloi.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Serenity now

 

This number to me is the most significant:

• Biden gets 53 percent of black Democrats, with 8 percent for Sanders, 7 percent for Harris and 4 percent for Warren.

Thats huge, especially coming after Biden’s terrible first debate performance. 

I really don’t think debates are as important as they used to be. Everyone thought Hillary beat trump in the debates. Didn’t matter. 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Kamala being a former prosecutor is hurting her greatly in my opinion. 

[tantric superman 4,667]

4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Kamala being a former prosecutor is hurting her greatly in my opinion. 

Pretty good "On the Media" podcast this last week.  Points out the fact that Kamala is trying to sell herself as being one of the first "progressive prosecutors" when, in fact, she was just a standard advocate of prosecution. 

I don't have  problem with aggressive prosecutors (I think it's a plus, especially for women), , but if she really is misrepresenting her record, that's not good.

[Hank Kingsley 20,680]

4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

This number to me is the most significant:

• Biden gets 53 percent of black Democrats, with 8 percent for Sanders, 7 percent for Harris and 4 percent for Warren.

Thats huge, especially coming after Biden’s terrible first debate performance. 

I really don’t think debates are as important as they used to be. Everyone thought Hillary beat trump in the debates. Didn’t matter. 

Well if we treat these polls with any merit, then the debates are very important. Biden crashed and Kamala soared in this Q poll right after the 1st debate. Sure, things have leveled out again. But we have 5 more debates before the end of the year.

Biden took a punch and got up quickly in Round 1. But another bad performance will have a more lasting effect. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

The debates matter.  It’s the only thing thus far to crack Biden’s support, if only temporary.  

This is reality TV politics.  People want to see a fight, they don’t care about policy.   

[Js1 85,104]

Debate at the end of June

an entire month in the middle of summer

Debate at the end of July

a month in a half at the end of summer and Labor Day

Debate in September

 

People are definitely only tuning it for the debate and then tuning out again.  

When you start getting into the October-Nov-December-Iowa caucus part of the calendar, people are paying attention.  

[tantric superman 4,667]

32 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Biden took a punch and got up quickly in Round 1. But another bad performance will have a more lasting effect. 

 

[EMAWesome 101]

On 7/25/2019 at 10:07 PM, Larry T. Spider said:

If a bunch of old, uneducated, white people in Wisconsin give us trump for another four years, I’m going scorched earth.

Good thing this is Michigan.

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Had dinner with three guys from a client company up in Ohio this past week, and it went to politics for a brief bit. Was pretty interesting. They're all probably your traditional "fiscal conservative social liberal" types. One voted Trump and two abstained or wrote someone else in last time. All three are actively rooting for Biden. They think he's great, smart, and "safe". And the electability thing came up over and over. They're scared that someone like Bernie/Warren would lose to Trump. And that seems to be the thing that terrifies them most - they have midwestern sensibilities and Trump offends the hell out of those sensibilities. They hate him. One of them said he literally thinks 4 more years of Trump will ruin our country permanently. These are all smart guys who pay attention, though probably not as heavily as any of us here. They're also financially comfortable white guys.

It's interesting when you get out of the "very online" bubble. There are a lot of people rooting for him. It's a bit disheartening. Because while I'm a "shitlib" to some, I want to see an end to: 1) Corporate controlled politics and 2) Baby boomers running a world that they are losing touch with. And BIden represents both of those.

The only positive takeaway from the conversation was that I'm now almost positive that Biden will beat Trump. These guys are a reasonably proxy for the votes we need to get him out, particularly in the Midwest. And they're rock solid for him. I still think Biden is a lock to win the general, for better or worse.

[Js1 85,104]

Just a reminder - no matter who wins this primary: 

1. It wasn’t rigged

2. The result isn’t bullshit 

3. We are all Team Nominee 

4. No voting indie or third party 

5. No bitching that XYZ would have been better between convention and Election Day 

Anyone who does otherwise is sowing discord to help Trump. 

[bad_teammate 13,132]

Is the "rich/comfortable white guy at a nice dinner for business" bubble broader and more representative of the nation than the "always online" bubble?

[henrygandorf 29,174]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The only positive takeaway from the conversation was that I'm now almost positive that Biden will beat Trump. These guys are a reasonably proxy for the votes we need to get him out, particularly in the Midwest. And they're rock solid for him. I still think Biden is a lock to win the general, for better or worse.

here is a list of reasons to root for biden:

he will wreck trump in the general

he will be too old to run for a 2nd term

end of list.

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Is the "rich/comfortable white guy at a nice dinner for business" bubble broader and more representative of the nation than the "always online" bubble?

Easily. It's also a better proxy for other groups that we're going to need to win in 2020 that are winnable votes.

I'm sure you're probably looking for a fight here, which I'm not going to give you, but someone posted an article on one of these threads showing that Twitter political posts represent something like 2-3% of the actual population. And of course they're going to naturally skew in a few directions demographically. 

It was just an interesting and somewhat depressing conversation, because I've never actually met any sort of Biden supporter with strong feelings in real life until then.

Edited July 29, 2019 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

here is a list of reasons to root for biden:

he will wreck trump in the general

he will be too old to run for a 2nd term

end of list.

"He's not Trump". Though that's not unique to him.

Edited July 29, 2019 by BradInATX

[bad_teammate 13,132]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Easily.

It's always interesting when people think that they, themselves, are representative of the masses. Kind of the hallmark of centrism, believing you're at the center of it all.

Quote

I'm sure you're probably looking for a fight here, which I'm not going to give you, but someone posted an article on one of these threads showing that Twitter political posts represent something like 2-3% of the actual population. And of course they're going to naturally skew in a few directions demographically. 

As opposed to what you referenced which is... one demographic, yes? And somehow that singular demographic is more representative?

Quote

It was just an interesting and somewhat depressing conversation, because I've never actually met any sort of Biden supporter with strong feelings in real life until then.

You met people who are going to vote for Donald Trump in the general election. Congratulations.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, bad_teammate said:

It's always interesting when people think that they, themselves, are representative of the masses. Kind of the hallmark of centrism, believing you're at the center of it all.

As opposed to what you referenced which is... one demographic, yes? And somehow that singular demographic is more representative?

You met people who are going to vote for Donald Trump in the general election. Congratulations.

You must have missed this part of my post:

"I'm sure you're probably looking for a fight here, which I'm not going to give you"

[henrygandorf 29,174]

10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Easily. It's also a better proxy for other groups that we're going to need to win in 2020 that are winnable votes.

I'm sure you're probably looking for a fight here, which I'm not going to give you, but someone posted an article on one of these threads showing that Twitter political posts represent something like 2-3% of the actual population. And of course they're going to naturally skew in a few directions demographically. 

It was just an interesting and somewhat depressing conversation, because I've never actually met any sort of Biden supporter with strong feelings in real life until then.

your story's fucked, and here's why-

as someone firmly stuck in the "always online" bubble, i have learned that all rich/comfortable white people:

-vote republican

-also support pete

-hate bernie

[henrygandorf 29,174]

ugh, b_t spoiled my joke.

[BradInATX 9,208]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

your story's fucked, and here's why-

as someone firmly stuck in the "always online" bubble, i have learned that all rich/comfortable white people:

-vote republican

-also support pete

-hate bernie

As someone who writes in Ronald Reagan for every presidential election, I take offense to this. I don't think he identifies as a Republican anymore.