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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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The dream scenario is Liz and Bernie spending the next 6 months attracting MASSIVE crowds, generating enthusiasm, and continuing to hold fire off each other while everyone else fights. Let the no-hopers and Kamala shred Joe; they will all suffer for it. Don't interrupt Pete while he's unable to get the press attention he got used to.

It gets a lot more complicated if they're close in delegates after Super Tuesday. If they're #1 and #2 then it's not a big deal at all, they can just fight hard until mathematical elimination and then Voltron into a world-saving power duo then.

The weekend of March 18th, 2020 might be a huge pivot point, because of how the calendar flows.

Remember, a candidate needs to get 15% of the vote in a state to get any first-ballot delegates. If Bernie and Liz can both hit that threshold then they can release each other's delegates to each other after the first ballot at the DNC.

To me, making sure it's not Joe is more important than whether it's Bernie or Liz. Bernie and Liz both being in the field makes it harder for Biden, not easier.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Biden: +8
Bernie: +8
Warren: +2
Harris: -1
Pete: -2

Two important demographics...

Suburban Women (v. Trump):
Biden: +24
Bernie: +20
Warren: +17
Harris: +16
Pete: +13

Independents (v. Trump):
Bernie: +10
Biden: +6
Warren: ~
Harris: -3
Pete: -4

If these trends hold (plenty of previous head-to-heads have shown similar results), the whole "I just want whoever gives us the best shot to beat Trump" thing is genuine. Name recognition is obviously huge, but that's also going to be true on general election day.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1740

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Posted
3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Biden: +8
Bernie: +8
Warren: +2
Harris: -1
Pete: -2

Two important demographics...

Suburban Women (v. Trump):
Biden: +24
Bernie: +20
Warren: +17
Harris: +16
Pete: +13

Independents (v. Trump):
Bernie: +10
Biden: +6
Warren: ~
Harris: -3
Pete: -4

If these trends hold (plenty of previous head-to-heads have shown similar results), the whole "I just want whoever gives us the best shot to beat Trump" thing is genuine. Name recognition is obviously huge, but that's also going to be true on general election day.

I don’t want to live in a world where half of independents pick dotard over warren.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

Posted
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3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:
If these trends hold (plenty of previous head-to-heads have shown similar results), the whole "I just want whoever gives us the best shot to beat Trump" thing is genuine. Name recognition is obviously huge, but that's also going to be true on general election day.

By election day there won't be a name recognition issue. 

Trump is polling at 42-44% with every single D candidate in those head to heads. His number is really the only one that matters. The lower name recognition candidates have a larger "undecided" third option percentage, which clearly is because they don't know the non Bernie/Biden candidates as well. 

I can understand why Berners love to post these Trump head-to-heads, as they are really the only poll numbers that are super positive for Bernie. But IMO they are almost meaningless at this point, and I hate that the MSM continues to give them so much validity. 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
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13 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

By election day there won't be a name recognition issue. 

By the general? Not much of one.
By the time of the primaries? Probably a different story.

Enthusiasm is what drives turnout, and that will matter a great deal.

The #3+ candidates are going to need to catch Bernie and Biden in this stuff.

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1385

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Bad teammate is going to lambast me but I don't see how Bernie breaks out of his niche support in a primary campaign with several other compelling candidates. This isn't Hillary Clinton and Martin OMalley he's running against. And in that race even his support had a ceiling particularly with certain demographics. The Bernie bros enthusiasm is nice but it ain't happening.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11770

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3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Remember what it was like to have a flesh and blood human being with emotions (other than hate) and empathy for others? Man, that was pretty cool.

 

Yang won’t win. But damn if he shouldn’t be elected to office / be part of an administration. He has some really great ideas and is becoming a better and better candidate.

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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The thing about Warren is that she is pretty darn smart and sometimes that scares people. I like her a lot and I hope people will stop and listen to her as she seems to be learning to tone down the policy talk when necessary and just be an interested engaging listener. When she does that, her whole persona shifts and she comes across as the neighbor who will bring you cookies when you're low or remember to ask how your spouse's new job is going or get angry along with you when you've been victimized (not fake victimized, but truly at the mercy of the machine). After the current administration, we need a healer. A healer who can get things done. I don't know who the best pair of candidates for that would be, but I'd like to see her at least give it a go.

 

Hope that wasn't too mawkish, I've been too immersed in politics lately and it gets depressing.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Warren’s digital operation is insanely good.  

You see this person’s twitter profile image and the blue teal background?  That’s a Warren digital campaign person.  There are hundreds of these blue teal people posting non-stop all over the country and this army is growing by the day. 

Warren also has some strong celebrity influencer with followers in the hundreds of thousands.   

Harris and Beto’s digital campaign is pretty good. Bernie’s working with about the same army as last time which is strong.

And Joe Biden’s digital operation is almost non-existent, of course. 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3903

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

The thing about Warren is that she is pretty darn smart and sometimes that scares people. I like her a lot and I hope people will stop and listen to her as she seems to be learning to tone down the policy talk when necessary and just be an interested engaging listener. When she does that, her whole persona shifts and she comes across as the neighbor who will bring you cookies when you're low or remember to ask how your spouse's new job is going or get angry along with you when you've been victimized (not fake victimized, but truly at the mercy of the machine). After the current administration, we need a healer. A healer who can get things done. I don't know who the best pair of candidates for that would be, but I'd like to see her at least give it a go.

 

Hope that wasn't too mawkish, I've been too immersed in politics lately and it gets depressing.

I think some centrists, at least ones I've heard or read, are concerned with Warren's pragmatism.  She's built her rep on railing and fighting the good fight against corrupted corporatists but what how will she handle if she can't get her preferred legislation through?  Is she too much of a idealogue?  Too hell ben on getting her way?  Example I've heard.  Multi-payer seems to be the preferred method of universal healthcare right now with single payer lagging way behind especially with centrists or moderates.  The counter here is that most of these moderates or centrists simply don't like or understand single payer and will come on board once they see the benefits.  But what happens if they don't?  What if they still prefer a multi-payer process?  What if Warren can get a strong multi system through in her first 100 days but not MFA?  How will she react?  How tied to her idealogical choices is she when it comes to context?  I admit I have no idea and this isn't a biting criticism, but I do think she it's a concern for her on some fronts, fairly or not... So it sort of ties in with your latter statements about a candidate being a healer as much as a leader and organizer.  Warren's rep is a fighter.  

FTR, I like Warren a lot.

 

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I think some centrists, at least ones I've heard or read, are concerned with Warren's pragmatism.  She's built her rep on railing and fighting the good fight against corrupted corporatists but what how will she handle if she can't get her preferred legislation through?  Is she too much of a idealogue?  Too hell ben on getting her way?  Example I've heard.  Multi-payer seems to be the preferred method of universal healthcare right now with single payer lagging way behind especially with centrists or moderates.  The counter here is that most of these moderates or centrists simply don't like or understand single payer and will come on board once they see the benefits.  But what happens if they don't?  What if they still prefer a multi-payer process?  What if Warren can get a strong multi system through in her first 100 days but not MFA?  How will she react?  How tied to her idealogical choices is she when it comes to context?  I admit I have no idea and this isn't a biting criticism, but I do think she it's a concern for her on some fronts, fairly or not... So it sort of ties in with your latter statements about a candidate being a healer as much as a leader and organizer.  Warren's rep is a fighter.  

FTR, I like Warren a lot.

 

 

Those are good points. I'm still waffling on healthcare myself but I lean toward a modified single payer. I remember reading a lit review once about the pros and cons of the different systems, and I should probably go back and read up on it some more, but you're right-how will EW react if things are rocky is a concern, but I don't know that any candidate is going to have an easy time of it, regardless. I would be surprised if the Senate cooperates. I'm not well-versed in politics like some of you are but despite being a regular voter, I have to admit there is concern on my part that in the end, the election could have enough votes to unseat Trump and it won't be called that way.

 

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Loch Ness Monster

Loch Ness Monster 3533

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Until the anti-immigrant people propose to lock up business owners that hire illegal immigrants then I don't wanna hear it.

In the Mississippi raid, 100+ Mexicans were arrested and nothing happened to the people that hired them (partly cause the laws make it easy for American business owners to feign surprise).

Glad Warren is picking up steam

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Mojo Hand

Mojo Hand 4580

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Posted
13 hours ago, Pancho said:

This trend sounds good

 

The mom is 50-50 vote Dem or find some excuse to write in some R.    The daughter is 50-50 vote Dem or stay home.   The dad is 50-50 vote Trump and admit it or vote Trump but lie to his family about who he voted for. 

Any of these types that a Dem can pick up is a bonus, but most Rs will have a hard time voting D no matter who the nominee is.  From Biden to Bernie, there will also be some Dem policy that irks them enough to serve as an excuse not to swing Dem. 

Winning combination:  energized Ds + left-leaning Indies + real never-Trump Indies and Rs + some of the R types above staying home or voting 3d party or write-in. 

Losing strategy:  relying on Rs like those above to pull us over the line. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I think some centrists, at least ones I've heard or read, are concerned with Warren's pragmatism.  She's built her rep on railing and fighting the good fight against corrupted corporatists but what how will she handle if she can't get her preferred legislation through?  Is she too much of a idealogue?  Too hell ben on getting her way?  Example I've heard.  Multi-payer seems to be the preferred method of universal healthcare right now with single payer lagging way behind especially with centrists or moderates.  The counter here is that most of these moderates or centrists simply don't like or understand single payer and will come on board once they see the benefits.  But what happens if they don't?  What if they still prefer a multi-payer process?  What if Warren can get a strong multi system through in her first 100 days but not MFA?  How will she react?  How tied to her idealogical choices is she when it comes to context?  I admit I have no idea and this isn't a biting criticism, but I do think she it's a concern for her on some fronts, fairly or not... So it sort of ties in with your latter statements about a candidate being a healer as much as a leader and organizer.  Warren's rep is a fighter.  

FTR, I like Warren a lot.

 

 

I actually feel pretty much the opposite on Warren and I guess I'm a "moderate". I have no concerns at all with her ability to be pragmatic and get things done. I honestly don't believe that she's truly as far left as she wants you to believe, she's just smart enough to know the political climate right now. I think she's great. My only concerns with her are around electability in the rust belt.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mojo Hand said:

The mom is 50-50 vote Dem or find some excuse to write in some R.    The daughter is 50-50 vote Dem or stay home.   The dad is 50-50 vote Trump and admit it or vote Trump but lie to his family about who he voted for. 

Any of these types that a Dem can pick up is a bonus, but most Rs will have a hard time voting D no matter who the nominee is.  From Biden to Bernie, there will also be some Dem policy that irks them enough to serve as an excuse not to swing Dem. 

Winning combination:  energized Ds + left-leaning Indies + real never-Trump Indies and Rs + some of the R types above staying home or voting 3d party or write-in. 

Losing strategy:  relying on Rs like those above to pull us over the line. 

After watching that video, I concur. The mom is being "Iowa polite" to the interviewer but she is looking for a reason to not vote Democratic regardless of candidate and the mention multiple times by both her and her daughter of immigration lead me to believe they will stay with Trump or not vote at all. Probably just closet Trump.

 

 

I have a fear, and to me it is real, but you all can tell me if I am way off base:  I have this fear that Trump will be replaced by Pence due to health reasons sometime prior to 2020 election and the buildup to that in all its craziness is so that Pence will somehow seem like a reasonable GOP alternative to Trump and swing those folks back to the party. Pence is not a suitable alternative in any way, shape or form, but after Trump and his goons have normalized so much hate and racism, he can and will step in and continue the regime.

So, yes, I agree that the losing strategy is relying on Rs like those but at the same time, I am worried that were my nightmare to come true, even more would follow them.

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Trumpism is a cult of personality.  Pence and Mother do not have the personality to motivate people to vote. 

It is; I don't disagree there. In a case of whataboutism though, could one argue that Castro was a 'personality,' and Cuba is still hanging on. The timing would be important. Like I said, I would hope it wouldn't come to fruition, but it's in the back of my mind. Trump's tweets have gotten to the point where King George III comes to mind when I'm reading them.

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retread

retread 2951

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Posted
1 hour ago, Mojo Hand said:

The mom is 50-50 vote Dem or find some excuse to write in some R.    The daughter is 50-50 vote Dem or stay home.   The dad is 50-50 vote Trump and admit it or vote Trump but lie to his family about who he voted for.   

It's so bizarre how the R voters constantly cite conservatism, but there's very little conservative about the current R party. They would cite pro-2A and pro-life as being core conservative principles.

Mom wants tough on borders and rule of law, and you know she's thinking Ds are 'open borders' in the back of her mind. The rule of law is being taken apart by this administration, so I'm not sure why she would give the Rs credit for this.

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AngryDragon

AngryDragon 270

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

Yang won’t win. But damn if he shouldn’t be elected to office / be part of an administration. He has some really great ideas and is becoming a better and better candidate.

 

I really think Yang is going to wind up with a lot more support than most think. He'll grab a lot of the independent right leans because he's educated and non threatening. He's way ahead of the curve with his ideas and I think it'll set him up for a serious run in 2024/2028.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I have a fear, and to me it is real, but you all can tell me if I am way off base:  I have this fear that Trump will be replaced by Pence due to health reasons sometime prior to 2020 election

oh if wishing made it so.

don't count on it.  trump will campaign from an iron lung if he has to.  if trump is alive, his name will be on the ticket.

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Js1

Js1 85095

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Posted
5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

oh if wishing made it so.

don't count on it.  trump will campaign from an iron lung if he has to.  if trump is alive, his name will be on the ticket.

Trump will still be on the top of the ticket if he's dead.  The Trump machine (aka, the Republican party) will make excuses why he isn't in public - he's working so hard to keep America great, he's spending time with Barron, he doesn't need to be out campaigning against these stupid Democrats and their dumb libtard ideas if they are just going to make up fake deepstate attacks against him.  40% will eat it up.  And the media will go along with it. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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On 8/11/2019 at 2:37 PM, horncyclist said:

Bad teammate is going to lambast me but I don't see how Bernie breaks out of his niche support in a primary campaign with several other compelling candidates. This isn't Hillary Clinton and Martin OMalley he's running against. And in that race even his support had a ceiling particularly with certain demographics. The Bernie bros enthusiasm is nice but it ain't happening.

I think he's got a 25% chance to win the nomination (which is where I placed it when he was way ahead of #3+ and Biden hadn't even announced).

Super-confident prognostication like you're offering here is just misguided because you don't know as much as you're pretending to know here. Bernie's polls are pretty lame and his donor/volunteer numbers are leagues ahead of everyone else's. The fundamental realities don't support the confidence of your "it ain't happening" estimation, and you're basing way too much of it on how you personally feel about Bernie supporters.

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