2020 Democratic Nominee

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

I tend to agree with this, but Beto on the ticket MIGHT have a shot at pulling enough conservative-leaning suburban wives to the Dems to swing the state. Houston and Dallas burbs are full of women that love Beto and probably won't like Castro for...reasons.  I don't think the Dems should be focusing on finally this time actually winning the votes of suburban wives, but if they continue chasing that dragon I think Beto fits that strategy better than Castro.

Yeah, but that’s what the nominee is for.

Castro’s family connections gets you organized, coordinated Chicanx turnout infrastructure in the valley, south Texas, and the major cities. That’s THE key.

 

This isn’t sales, folks. This is marketing.

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

1 hour ago, Mojo Hand said:

Commenters called her "disappointing" and a "coward" and said "you get worse by the day" (with tons of likes) and said they were "heartbroken" because the "language" of her praise for Bernie was too "defensive," and not "unequivocal" and made "concessions" about other candidates.    And they criticized her for being about to "pull a Warren on us," warned of the consequences "if you endorse anyone other than Bernie," and made a bunch of posts about why Warren is much worse than Bernie. 

The Bernie Bros are going to fuck up again and give us four more years of dotard.  Thanks, assholes.

[Pancho 44437]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yeah, but that’s what the nominee is for.

Castro’s family connections gets you organized, coordinated Chicanx turnout infrastructure in the valley, south Texas, and the major cities. That’s THE key.

 

This isn’t sales, folks. This is marketing.

 

 

I think Beto and his coalition can do this as well. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19144]

Castro on the ticket won't swing TX blue.  It's a dumb idea to put someone on the ticket to try to win one state when the chances of winning said state are zero.

Even if Beto can't swing enough suburban housewives from Houston or DFW to carry TX, he has a better chance of swinging enough suburban housewives in North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin than Castro would.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I mean, in polling Beto is lapping the field in Texas and Castro isn’t even a blip on the radar. In Texas.

Beto is also killing it in fundraising in Texas. Castro isn’t even in second place and is pulling in average dollars in his home state.



Castro had, for him, an awesome first debate and his numbers didn’t move at all.

To say Castro is on the same level - much less a higher level - than Beto is ignoring all the evidence.

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

19 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I think Beto and his coalition can do this as well. 

What Castro has in terms of access to coordinated people moving infrastructure may not be enough to swing Texas, but Beto doesn't have anything like it. 

17 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Castro on the ticket won't swing TX blue.  It's a dumb idea to put someone on the ticket to try to win one state when the chances of winning said state are zero.

Even if Beto can't swing enough suburban housewives from Houston or DFW to carry TX, he has a better chance of swinging enough suburban housewives in North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin than Castro would.

I don't think Beto gets you anything in those states that the nominee won't get for themselves. He might help Harris some. I'm not sure how he compliments anybody else. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[Bruh Man 3160]

On 8/15/2019 at 2:06 PM, Mojo Hand said:

Am I missing something or does this not say anything about who the second choice is specifically for Harris and Buttigieg voters? 

And Morning Consult is a legit poll with a respectable B- from 538.   You make it sound like the drudge internet poll. 

I guess you're right. Here's a new poll today confirming Warren has a lot of room to grow through the "second choice" lane. I still think Iowa can make or break her campaign. She'll get more African American votes (pragmatist) if they know she can win.

 

 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Bruh Man

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Yo, this NYT Biden/Obama story is kind of alarming.   

 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

5 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I mean, in polling Beto is lapping the field in Texas and Castro isn’t even a blip on the radar. In Texas.

Beto is also killing it in fundraising in Texas. Castro isn’t even in second place and is pulling in average dollars in his home state.



Castro had, for him, an awesome first debate and his numbers didn’t move at all.

To say Castro is on the same level - much less a higher level - than Beto is ignoring all the evidence.

Oh, no. He's not on the same level of Beto as a politician. He just brings more upside to the table as a VP nominee in Texas. 

[Mojo Hand 4580]

6 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

I guess you're right. Here's a new poll today confirming Warren has a lot of room to grow through the "second choice" lane. I still think Iowa can make or break her campaign. She'll get more African American votes (pragmatist) if they know she can win.

 

 

Yeah.  I don't think your take is unreasonable, and maybe it's right if we assume nothing changes before Iowa.  But I think Warren's trajectory will change things by then, making it a two person race with Biden.   And maybe it's moot, because if I'm right, she'll probably win Iowa anyway, in which case you'll be right too. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Biden is going to have to survive four more debates with Warren, Bernie, and Harris before Iowa.

That will not be easy for grandpa Joe.

[bolverk 29394]

3 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

Would a Warren/Beto or Biden/Beto ticket PLUS Castro running for Senate put Texas in play?

Great question that's not getting enough love.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Kamala...yikes

[Mojo Hand 4580]

Also, Warren overtaking Biden as second choice for Sanders supporters is huge for her.   29 - 14 is a big split, too.   Actually, it looks like she's the top 2nd choice for every candidate. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Mojo Hand

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

39 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

I guess you're right. Here's a new poll today confirming Warren has a lot of room to grow through the "second choice" lane. I still think Iowa can make or break her campaign. She'll get more African American votes (pragmatist) if they know she can win.

 

 

Lulz at the Olds there.

Biden:

yoots:    xxx

middle: xxxxxx

dads:  xxxxxxxx

cog decliners:  xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[BradInATX 9208]

Beto is not going to be the VP nominee. Jesus Christ.

[henrygandorf 29174]

36 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Also, Warren overtaking Biden as second choice for Sanders supporters is huge for her.   29 - 14 is a big split, too.   Actually, it looks like she's the top 2nd choice for every candidate. 

this was bound to happen.

anyone who had bernie first and biden second was purely basing it on name recognition and likely wasn't that engaged yet.  on a longer timeline, this will shake out even more significantly.

[bad_teammate 13132]

21 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Also, Warren overtaking Biden as second choice for Sanders supporters is huge for her.   29 - 14 is a big split, too.   Actually, it looks like she's the top 2nd choice for every candidate. 

She's had a slower build and I think/hope that means all this is durable.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Warren is starting to get a little inevatibility vibe to her IMO. But it's early.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Hugo biased take:  

Warren is easily the best presidential candidate I’ve seen in my lifetime and it’s only a matter of time before more people see it.  She does everything so well from organizing to messaging.  It’s like America built her precisely for this moment in time.   She’s not going to be stopped unless some unforeseen tragedy occurs, god forbid.  

[Brisketexan 104537]

I will say, she's really beginning to impress.  For the reasons Hugo stated.  She executes pretty well.  No, she's not the most charismatic, she's not a queen of the zinger, any of that.  But she is showing signs of being the best overall package.  I'm paying attention.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

12 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Hugo biased take:  

Warren is easily the best presidential candidate I’ve seen in my lifetime and it’s only a matter of time before more people see it.  She does everything so well from organizing to messaging.  It’s like America built her precisely for this moment in time.   She’s not going to be stopped unless some unforeseen tragedy occurs, god forbid.  

Like any politician, there could be skeletons in her closet we don't yet know about.   To use the most obvious hypothetical, if an application turned up in which she claimed NA status to get a clear advantage, she'd suddenly be in big trouble.  She's looking good so far, but you never know. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

7 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Like any politician, there could be skeletons in her closet we don't yet know about.   To use the most obvious hypothetical, if an application turned up in which she claimed NA status to get a clear advantage, she'd suddenly be in big trouble.  She's looking good so far, but you never know. 

You know who her enemies are.  They would have hit her already if there was anything of substance. 

She’s been good about proactively putting out any information that could possibly be used against her. From her legal work records to a decade of tax returns, she even took a fucking DNA test and made the results public to her own detriment.  Who does that shit?  No one.  

[Dbeasy 14962]

Hugo biased take:  

Warren is easily the best presidential candidate I’ve seen in my lifetime and it’s only a matter of time before more people see it.  She does everything so well from organizing to messaging.  It’s like America built her precisely for this moment in time.   She’s not going to be stopped unless some unforeseen tragedy occurs, god forbid.  

 

She just needs to get out the message that her progressive policies have common sense components and are not giant giveaways to earn votes and she can win it all. Harris is probably her running mate?

[bolverk 29394]

That 7th grade bully may have been able to take on his middle school class president who never misspelled a word, but I doubt he'll be able to take on the chick that mastered trig in high school.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

She just needs to get out the message that her progressive policies have common sense components and are not giant giveaways to earn votes and she can win it all

That’s been a cornerstone of her messaging.  She frames it as “creating opportunity” and she uses the opportunities she was afforded in her life experience as the roadmap to her vision of America.  

A place where you can fall in love, drop out of college, have kids but still live the American Dream without getting buried by overwhelming student loan debt and medical bills.  Elizabeth Warren was made in this America but it no longer exists.  She’s wants to restructure the system to bring back the America that made her. 

In other words, she wants to make America great again, except for real. 

[Bruh Man 3160]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

Great question that's not getting enough love.

The Dem leadership are such defeatist I doubt they'll even try to take Texas but this would be the best scenario to do it. You cover women, young people, & latinos.

[bolverk 29394]

2 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

The Dem leadership are such defeatist I doubt they'll even try to take Texas but this would be the best scenario to do it. You cover women, young people, & latinos.

Yup

[JBJ 3648]

Anyone's VP will probably be someone non-threatening that can campaign BIG10 or ACC country.

Edited August 16, 2019 by JBJ

[UTDD 362]

4 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Castro on the ticket won't swing TX blue.  It's a dumb idea to put someone on the ticket to try to win one state when the chances of winning said state are zero.

Even if Beto can't swing enough suburban housewives from Houston or DFW to carry TX, he has a better chance of swinging enough suburban housewives in North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin than Castro would.

I agree it's highly unlikely that Castro or Beto can swing it, so you should pick a VP candidate with Texas perhaps as a corollary (but not primary reason) benefit, but you primarily need someone that has much broader appeal to specific states and demographics that can support the general election candidate's weaknesses and lift the overall ticket to new heights. 

I've seen Castro a number of times now, and the simple truth is that he just doesn't have the right qualities to inspire where it counts which greatly limits his ceiling.  If he did, I think he would have gained traction by now.  Even in his good moments like at the debate, I didn't see an inspiring figure versus a clever one which is not nearly as useful or desired.  At least Beto has more than once clearly shown some ability to inspire true emotion and passion out of people although he has made many so many mistakes in this campaign.  I view Beto as a high risk high reward VP candidate overall, but Castro seems like an all or nothing Texas play with almost no Midwest appeal at all which seems infinitely more risky.     

[UTDD 362]

2 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

Like any politician, there could be skeletons in her closet we don't yet know about.   To use the most obvious hypothetical, if an application turned up in which she claimed NA status to get a clear advantage, she'd suddenly be in big trouble.  She's looking good so far, but you never know. 

I doubt there is anything really bad out there, but I would also imagine if there was anything "that good" in the eyes of the enemy, they would be more likely to see if she actually becomes a real threat by winning the nomination and then trying a surprise late.  I think for example that the information about Clinton that came out when it did late was entirely possible to bring up earlier than when it was released.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

They are going to make shit up out of whole cloth anyway. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Beto

 

Unless Biden is the nominee, It's more than likely going to be someone outside of the current POTUS field, or Buttigieg (his favorables in the midwest are solid). Harris is a bad choice for Warren (but not Biden). Sanders won't want it. I doubt Warren would want it if she doesn't win. Someone like Sherrod Brown would be a good choice. He's not ideal because of the senate seat, but someone in that vein. Midwestern, well liked and respected by everyone, etc. I don't know who that is (I guess Klobuchar probably fits the bill but I'd prefer someone in an actual swing state), but It certainly shouldn't be anyone from a state that touches the ocean. And it won't be.

Edited August 17, 2019 by BradInATX

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Don’t sleep on Tammy Duckworth either.  She checks all kinds of boxes. 

[UTDD 362]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Beto

 

Unless Biden is the nominee, It's more than likely going to be someone outside of the current POTUS field, or Buttigieg (his favorables in the midwest are solid). Harris is a bad choice for Warren (but not Biden). Sanders won't want it. I doubt Warren would want it if she doesn't win. Someone like Sherrod Brown would be a good choice. He's not ideal because of the senate seat, but someone in that vein. Midwestern, well liked and respected by everyone, etc. I don't know who that is, but It certainly shouldn't be anyone from a state that touches the ocean.

If Beto's numbers remain the same or similar, he won't be picked VP for sure.  He would have to gain traction over the following months in a way that shows he would be a strong asset to the Dem general election candidate.  I do view him as a high risk high reward possibility as I think he could actually gain some traction in his reset, but of course we have to see.  I'm not sure Biden would pick Harris but think it could be a good choice dependent on what happens in the following months.  I think Warren would consider Beto personally if he gains more traction and shows more substance but I think she has 3-4 other good options that are probably better without a change in Beto's trajectory.  

[Mojo Hand 4580]

If she picked Warren Buffett as a running mate, the ticket would be Warren Buffett. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, UTDD said:

If Beto's numbers remain the same or similar, he won't be picked VP for sure.  He would have to gain traction over the following months in a way that shows he would be a strong asset to the Dem general election candidate.  I do view him as a high risk high reward possibility as I think he could actually gain some traction in his reset, but of course we have to see.  I'm not sure Biden would pick Harris but think it could be a good choice dependent on what happens in the following months.  I think Warren would consider Beto personally if he gains more traction and shows more substance but I think she has 3-4 other good options that are probably better without a change in Beto's trajectory.  

Yeah. I mean there's always possibility that he could catch fire somehow, so you're right in that any of this has to be asterisked with "barring something that wildly changes the game". 

Hugo - Duckworth is a good call. She has a great story. 

[UTDD 362]

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Don’t sleep on Tammy Duckworth either.  She checks all kinds of boxes. 

Ok, I stand corrected, THAT is high risk possibly very high reward and would be a very brave choice in a lot of ways, so I can imagine only a few of the current candidates would actually consider it.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

19 minutes ago, UTDD said:

I think Warren would consider Beto personally if he gains more traction and shows more substance but I think she has 3-4 other good options that are probably better without a change in Beto's trajectory.  

Beto seems like a comfortable fit with the way Warren is running her campaign.  High energy with lots of emotionally charged rhetoric coming from a place of moral clarity.  Warren covers the wonky policy bases and Beto brings the heat as a youthful closer.  It would be a solid team regardless of the map strategy.  

Edited August 17, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Mojo Hand 4580]

Gillum would be perfect if he had a couple years of higher level experience. 

[UTDD 362]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Beto seems like a comfortable fit with the way Warren is running her campaign.  High energy with lots of emotionally charged rhetoric coming from a place of moral clarity.  Warren covers the wonky policy bases and Beto brings the heat as a youthful closer.  It would be a solid team regardless of the map strategy.  

I think Warren might pick Beto even if on paper he doesn't fix all of the strategic boxes if she feels he is the best person to be President if heavens forbid anything happens to her.  I really believe that about her in a way I don't about most candidates which probably says something about her too and also Beto and his true character.  I think it's possible she will consider Beto regardless of his Midwest appeal if he remains true as the "moral compass" attacker against Trump's immorality, which I think personally is an angle he should have started from the beginning.    Most others won't pick him if he doesn't show that strength and trajectory somehow.  Also, Beto brings some youth and also inspirational charisma which I feel to be fair are two of Warren's weaker areas.  What Beto doesn't bring yet is Midwest appeal very much, but Warren actually seems to be doing ok there on her own so far.  I think Beto is a very good politician who has been given horrible advice.

I think Warren is running of the best and most disciplined campaigns I have seen in a long time on the Democrat side, although Obama in his first election just really ran an amazing campaign too.  This speaks well to her abilities if she actually ran her own administration should she win it all.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

So god dammed sick of the worst parts of the country deciding who is elected president. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

I am still in awe of how much runway and AstroTurfing Biden has been given in this race. 

It’s like we can’t be trusted anymore to choose our own leaders. The powers that be chose Biden as the nominee and force fed us poll after poll showing him as the front runner and most “electable”.  Keep in mind we were having these polls pushed down our throats many months before he even entered the race for some reason. 

Oprah or Michelle Obama in those polls?  No, because it needed to be baked in that Biden was the absolute best option to defeat Trump well in advance.  

Never mind actually campaigning, holding live town halls, doing live television interviews, or winning people over with good ideas.  No, those operations are for peasants.  Biden has earned the right not to those things because it has been decided.  Sure, the Democratic process might take him out if something goes horribly wrong but it will be established that Joe Biden has the deck stacked nearly perfect for him. 

And he is still going to lose. 

Edited August 17, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[NIUHuskies 504]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Don’t sleep on Tammy Duckworth either.  She checks all kinds of boxes. 

That's my pick. My gut tells me it will be someone outside the current field. It lines up for her... midwest, democratic convention in Milwaukee, and dem governor to nominate replacement.

[F250 28677]

7 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What Castro has in terms of access to coordinated people moving infrastructure may not be enough to swing Texas, but Beto doesn't have anything like it. 

This. Beto "fake Mexican" is a fart in the wind in South Texas. The Castro connections in the area are deep and vast.

Nominate Castro and the internal machinations of the Democratic Party in Texas will fire up. South Texas will turnout for one of their own.

 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

6 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Beto is not going to be the VP nominee. Jesus Christ.

So certain are you. Mer heh heh heh heh!

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

The BernieBros and KamalaBros are really going at it on twitter.  Don’t really know what to make of it yet except it can’t be good.

oh, well this explains it:

 

Edited August 17, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

My sports book put this up today. I’m really surprised.

ODDS TO WIN 2020 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Republicans
-120

Democrats
-120

[tantric superman 4667]

Holy shit, just looked up Tammy Duckworth.  There is someone who has sacrificed for her country.

I think the problem re: Biden is that you've got Biden in one box, Liz and Bern in another and the rest in a third box.

Liz is going to capture some Bernie's folks and some moderates who start believing that Biden would be a mistake.  If the third box whittles down, a winner from that group will emerge and that is when Biden is going to plummet. 

Just got to be patient. 

 

 

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5782]

7 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Holy shit, just looked up Tammy Duckworth.  There is someone who has sacrificed for her country.

I think the problem re: Biden is that you've got Biden in one box, Liz and Bern in another and the rest in a third box.

Liz is going to capture some Bernie's folks and some moderates who start believing that Biden would be a mistake.  If the third box whittles down, a winner from that group will emerge and that is when Biden is going to plummet. 

Just got to be patient. 

 

 

 

You better be right, asshole.