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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Holy shit, just looked up Tammy Duckworth.  There is someone who has sacrificed for her country.

I think the problem re: Biden is that you've got Biden in one box, Liz and Bern in another and the rest in a third box.

Liz is going to capture some Bernie's folks and some moderates who start believing that Biden would be a mistake.  If the third box whittles down, a winner from that group will emerge and that is when Biden is going to plummet. 

Just got to be patient. 

 

 

 

Narrator from Idiocracy: Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. would go on to win the Democratic Party nomination and lose in an overwhelming fashion to the last elected President of the United States.

 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13225

Posted
Posted (edited)

Candidate reactions to Israel not letting multiple US Congresswomen enter the country...

Warren: 7 out of 10

Biden: 3 out of 10

Harris: 0 out of 10

(NOTHING)

Buttigieg: 0 out of 10

(NOTHING)

Sanders: 10 out of 10

There are two good choices in this primary.

Edited by bad_teammate
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13225

Posted
Posted (edited)

Really interesting crosstabs:

ZnTKUffl.jpg

Bernie voters very much like Bernie and are the least swayable (this is the whole "high floor" thing with Bernie. No matter how much he is attacked, he's probably not going to fall below 10-15%. If 2 straight debates of, "Candidate X, why do you think Bernie is a psychopath who will ruin the nation?" and endless negative press can't knock him off #3/#2, then it's hard to see what will)

Warren's base is extremely open (going from single-digits to #2/#3 consistently means you got an influx of people who were somewhere else, so that's inevitable. Durability, locking in is the key. We need that 80 to shrink so the leads don't fade once the media finds a new toy. As they always do, because they suck.)

Harris's base is also very suggestible (she only ever had a significant bump because of debate-night posturing, so it's not like she had some major movement to begin with)

Biden is the most interesting to me here, because his base really likes him, but I just don't believe they care that much. I think his base is more suggestible than the numbers say and Liz's base is more locked-in than the numbers say.

hiYV2Url.jpg

We are all thinking of Biden eventually collapsing, but where are those voters going to go? Not just Biden's, but look at the HUGE number of "Don't Know/Refused to Answer" DK/Ref voters!

Obviously the majority here are going to want them to go to Warren, but look at the demographics where she is strongest.

- Very white (only 17% of whites are DK/Ref)
- Overwhelmingly liberal (only 13%/17% of liberals are DK/Ref)
- Extremely educated. (only 12%/14% of highly educated are DK/Ref)

Looking at the numbers, that's a ceiling that's not very far away if Liz can't expand that voting base. The number of highly-educated white liberals is limited and I'm not sure she can survive a primary and general election with that. It's like Hillary's coalition minus all of Hillary's black voters.

So if Biden and Bernie both collapse, do blacks just stay home again because Kamala can't overtake Liz overall?

Fuck.

The candidates most likely to get the DK/Ref as they decide score higher among non-whites, the less-educated, younger, and the less-likely-to-identify-as-liberal. Which would mean, that as this wears on and people are "forced" to pick, this is how they would filter in...

1) Joe (strong on mod/conservative, strong on minority, strong on less-educated)
2) Bernie (strong on young, strong on less-educated, strong on minority)
3) Harris (strong on minority, strong on mod/conservative)
4) Warren (strong on young)
5) Pete (I guess we should mention him still, right?)

Postgrads (i.e., people with money) fucking hate Bernie lol

[edit - god I hate imgur]

Edited by bad_teammate
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13225

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The voters are most likely to go to the most impressive and persuasive candidate...

Something for you to keep in mind is that "impressive" and "persuasive" are not universally considered. What is "impressive" and "persuasive" to a guy with a master's and a nice office isn't necessarily the same as what is "impressive" and "persuasive" to the guy whose surplus labor he takes home.

I know that the vast majority of your political ideology is motivated by spite, but you should consider these things.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Something for you to keep in mind is that "impressive" and "persuasive" are not universally considered. What is "impressive" and "persuasive" to a guy with a master's and a nice office isn't necessarily the same as what is "impressive" and "persuasive" to the guy whose surplus labor he takes home.

I know that the vast majority of your political ideology is motivated by spite, but you should consider these things.

You could have just said it’s all subjective and then accused me of having no empathy.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13225

Posted
Posted

More on the younger voters and crosstabs. Warren & Bernie are the favorites among college kids (at least according to this poll).

Some of the same demographic trends show here.

White: Bernie & Warren tied
Black: Bernie +18
Receiving Financial Aid: Bernie +10
Private HS: Warren +5
Independent: Bernie +16
Strong Democrat: Warren +4
LGBT: Warren +2
Male: Bernie +15
Female: Bernie +3

Looking at this one feels good because it's got the two really good candidates up top and Uncle Joe is down closer to where he belongs.

Which is inside a trash can.

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3933

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Notably missing among recipients of tech exec money are Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, 

LOL.  Other than some Biden contributions, they're all backing candidates with no shot whatsoever.  

Wisconsin:

Bernie 2nd, Joe 3rd.  Not an influential primary because of the schedule but obviously a very important state in the general.

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Dropout said:

Says the guy who voted Hillary over Bernie.

I couldn’t vote in that primary.  At the time I probably would have voted Hillary over Bernie because I liked the idea of advancing the Obama agenda.  

However, if I could go back in time knowing then what I know now, I would vote for Bernie easily. 

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Dropout

Dropout 355

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I couldn’t vote in that primary.  At the time I probably would have voted Hillary over Bernie because I liked the idea of advancing the Obama agenda.  

However, if I could go back in time knowing then what I know now, I would vote for Bernie easily. 

My mistake. But I have noticed your shift and others as well. I have no problem w Liz. One of my first posts was calling for Bernie/Warren as evidence.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Candidate reactions to Israel not letting multiple US Congresswomen enter the country...

Warren: 7 out of 10

Biden: 3 out of 10

Harris: 0 out of 10

(NOTHING)

Buttigieg: 0 out of 10

(NOTHING)

Sanders: 10 out of 10

There are two good choices in this primary.

Possible telling statistic among these three responses is the number of retweets:

Joe Biden: 5,028 retweets 

Bernie Sanders: 6,433 retweets 

Elizabeth Warren:  19,100 retweets 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13225

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Posted (edited)

Between Sanders and Warren alone, the on-the-ground organizing focus is truly hope-inspiring. Both are constantly packing-out organizing events.

This is how we win. You love to see it.

If you aren't Bernie or Warren right now... get right with god and jump on one of the two trains.

Edited by bad_teammate
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

She's a shitty candidate and there's already a candidate in the race with better name recognition and credentials to claim the mantle of being the establishment candidate.  His brain may be mush and he may be functionally retarded but those things don't seem to matter to Dem primary voters.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Posted

Kamala’s campaign has been odd to me from the start.

She had that very impressive launch and then she showed out in the first debate but in between it’s like she just vanishes.

Now part of that may be the media doing its thing and ignoring her like every other female candidate except Warren but that doesn’t explain her near invisibility.

I feel like she hasn’t been doing anything. Like we only see her getting excited about her new bus and then nothing.

It’s weird.

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Mojo Hand

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Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

What the fuck is going on with the Kamala campaign?!?! She was supposed to be giving Biden a run for his money.  It's like she's been asked to stand down or something. 

Her campaign has always sucked, aside from one long-prepared moment.  I posted this 6 weeks ago when a few people here praised her for running a smart campaign after the Biden attack:

On 7/9/2019 at 1:40 PM, Mojo Hand said:

That was definitely a great individual strategic move, but I have to disagree with any suggestion that she's running a good campaign outside of that one moment.  IMO her campaign has otherwise been extremely lackluster, which is why her Q2 fundraising was last by far among the top 5, even though she should have been a natural at this and does big donor fundraising like Pete and Biden.   The sputtering of her campaign before the debate was actually one of the most puzzling aspects of the primary for me so far.  

Maybe she's in the process of turning it around, but she's already had to backtrack on a couple of things since the debate and has continued to looked shaky to me.  The Biden thing is what I'd expect from a quality prosecutor, and she's shown that same skill in the Kavanaugh hearings and other situations in which she essentially gets to cross-examine people.   But I haven't seen "good organizer" from her yet, or even that her strategic thinking has more broader applicability. 

The only two who have run impressive campaigns, in my mind, are Warren and Pete.  Everyone else is either coasting off the past or struggling, with the exception of Kamala's post-Biden bounce.   If she sustains it, though, she'll certainly make that list too. 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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Posted
4 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Kamala’s campaign has been odd to me from the start.

She had that very impressive launch and then she showed out in the first debate but in between it’s like she just vanishes.

Now part of that may be the media doing its thing and ignoring her like every other female candidate except Warren but that doesn’t explain her near invisibility.

I feel like she hasn’t been doing anything. Like we only see her getting excited about her new bus and then nothing.

It’s weird.

It is weird.  Kamala has a killer instinct but she seems to lack a certain genuine passion.  She doesn’t have a signature issue or transcending idea to separate herself.  You can also see some trepidation when she gets pressed under questioning on controversial topics.  Like she’s afraid of saying the wrong thing so she plays it safe.  It sucks too because she could be awesome if she would just get out there and go for it. 

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4 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Biden seems kind of retarded to me. Would rather not vote for him.

If it comes down to Biden and Trump in the general, we should skip the election and have the candidates compete in multiple competitions; Wipeout, Fear Factor, Wheel of Fortune and Man versus Food (Spicy challenge).

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Having said that, in a competition that depends on getting actual votes instead of twitter likes or popularity on snarky message boards, I would bet on the guy who is popular with old people and the People of Walmart.  If Biden just powers through his nonsense with confidence and never acts defeated after anything too blatant (i.e., no Rick Perry “Oops” moment), he can probably stumble his way through the primary.

Trump pretty much became president via twitter trolling and demagoguery at rallies. 

Biden needs the polls to keep him on top and he needs cable news to keep blasting those favorable polls 24/7 convincing people to just settle for “status quo Joe”... (would be a great nickname.)

As someone with a look at the inside of the Warren campaign (I somehow know Liz’s skincare program), they are mobilizing hard AF and casting a wide net to get people involved on the street level.  She is going to make Joe earn it if he wants the nomination. 

She is bringing the donuts.

 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Pancho

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Posted

It seems I’m asking the question “what are you doing?!?!” Too many times when it comes to Harris.  From the color scheme (I get it..it’s a nod to Shirley Chisholm, but no it doesn’t work) to certain campaign events to certain answers, it just seems her and her campaign have no clue. I’ve heard some people say it might be because she’s never ran a national campaign before, but neither have others and they are doing fine. 

Seems like she went from possible candidate to fighting for the VP slot. 

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immortal13

immortal13 4059

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Trump pretty much became president via twitter trolling and demagoguery at rallies. 

Biden needs the polls to keep him on top and he needs cable news to keep blasting those favorable polls 24/7 convincing people to just settle for “status quo Joe”... (would be a great nickname.)

As someone with a look at the inside of the Warren campaign (I somehow know Liz’s skincare program), they are mobilizing hard AF and casting a wide net to get people involved on the street level.  She is going to make Joe earn it if he wants the nomination. 

She is bringing the donuts.

 

Free shit? No way

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11395

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Posted

That bodes very well for Warren.  She's basically neck-and-neck with Biden and Sanders, but doesn't have nearly the same name recognition/familiarity with voters.  As more and more people get to know her and her policies, I think she'll be the run-away candidate

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29 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

That bodes very well for Warren.  She's basically neck-and-neck with Biden and Sanders, but doesn't have nearly the same name recognition/familiarity with voters.  As more and more people get to know her and her policies, I think she'll be the run-away candidate

At some point, Warren and Sanders are going to have to square off with each other. I imagine in the near future their campaign apps will send out a notice called "Sweep the Leg".

 

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16 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

This country is fucking stupid.

 

Interesting, the people that brought the lawsuit are doing it for the purpose of electoral college reform. It seems their goal is to highlight the problems of the EC.

 

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3933

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, Pancho said:

It seems I’m asking the question “what are you doing?!?!” Too many times when it comes to Harris.  From the color scheme (I get it..it’s a nod to Shirley Chisholm, but no it doesn’t work) to certain campaign events to certain answers, it just seems her and her campaign have no clue. I’ve heard some people say it might be because she’s never ran a national campaign before, but neither have others and they are doing fine. 

Seems like she went from possible candidate to fighting for the VP slot. 

Supporters will point to polls in early primary states where she's increased her share like Iowa and New Hampshire (I admit I haven't had time to research).  She needs a calamity of some sort at this stage.  Like Biden leaving the race early because of health so she can try and swallow up the centrist/moderate votes.  Not sure it would go that way but she needs something to happen because as strong as she was perceived from the first debate, she got her ass handed to her in the 2nd by Tulsi Fucking Gabbard and that was a bad, bad look.  She just didn't do much to follow up on that momentum spike.  Maybe if she gets another she'll be smarter about how to ride that wave, but at this stage, I think she'll stay in the Senate.  Maybe run for Governor eventually or maybe that AG position although I would think there's a bit more job security in Senator.

On 8/20/2019 at 11:10 AM, Mojo Hand said:

New CNN poll shows that Biden has gained 7 since June at Kamala's expense (-12), and that Bernie and Warren are pretty much the same. 

However 

 

So..... you're saying it could be worse?!?!  Is Castro really running 4th then?

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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