2020 Democratic Nominee

[bad_teammate 13195]

Just now, Dbeasy said:

It leaves voters confused and unclear about such an important critical issue, and until you can get your own party in agreement, or at least close to it, you look like spastic fools to everyone else.

Liz and Bernie combine for ~35% of the overall polling totals right now and Pete can barely crack 5%. Let's not pretend that Pete represents some kind of broad-based vision for anything. He's a cute little grandson for professional class white people.

If you're actually worried about what the masses of people think, look to the two candidates who have, by far, the largest grassroots movements and who are also doing well in the polls.

[Bozo_Casanova 26460]

Even in a fully funded government healthcare system, there would still be room for private sector players.  

The private sector you just said isn’t viable if cost control was a goal?

And what does that even mean? Who are you talking about? And what does “system” encompass even? Or “healthcare”?

I’m supportive of any of the plans that the Democrats have proposed (including M4A), and a number of the best plans they haven’t (like Wyden-Bennett).
But M4A as proposed by Sanders would not cover the most people the fastest with the highest standard of care for the lowest cost, and would cause the greatest disruption of services during the ramp period to go with facing the most difficult passage and the highest probability of either failing legislatively or being repealed.

[Bozo_Casanova 26460]

In reality, scale leads to efficiency in material production and inefficiency in service production. 
All the inefficiencies of government bureaucracy exist at any corporation of sufficient size. 

Of course they do, and on paper a monopsony yields the greatest economy of administrative scale. So what? That doesn’t mean that it will, or that other players can’t operate efficiently or carve out market space.

[bad_teammate 13195]

M4A doesn't replace private providers of healthcare, all it does is replace private health insurers. Doctors and clinics and drug makers will all still be private entities in competition with each other for the Medicare dollar.

M4A simply...

1) Covers everyone automatically no matter what
2) Ensures that everyone has the coverage they need
3) Increases efficiency in insurance provision

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m supportive of any of the plans that the Democrats have proposed (including M4A), and a number of the best plans they haven’t (like Wyden-Bennett).

Wyden-Bennett doesn't achieve 100% coverage.

Non-starter.

[Bozo_Casanova 26460]

You have 34+ choices, 33 of which are emergency backups that you don't actually want.
Also, M4A gives you the option to use the M4A insurance or to ignore it completely and go cash-only. So that's at least 2.
Please update your talking points with this new information.

This is some mansplaining shit right here. Do periods next!

[bad_teammate 13195]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

This is some mansplaining shit right here. Do periods next!

Wouldn't Wyden-Bennett completely dismantle the employer-based health insurance model that Brad loves so much?

Please answer honestly.

[Bozo_Casanova 26460]

Wouldn't Wyden-Bennett completely dismantle the employer-based health insurance model that Brad loves so much?
Please answer honestly.

Of course it would. Thats the biggest distortion in the market. That’s why it got walked in 2009- the USCOC told the GOP to knock it off and Obama thought it was too much like single payer.

But by that time all the concerns Edwin Park laid out were addressed, by the way- coverage was universal.

[bad_teammate 13195]

Ah, interesting, so Wyden-Bennett is also a government-imposed destruction of the choices of red-blooded Americans like Brad?

#Sad

It is interesting, though, that the instinct from the center/center-right is to always punch Left despite the reality that it isn't the Left that kills all of this stuff. And by "interesting", I mean "predictable and pathetic".

[bad_teammate 13195]

But guys, what Americans really want is centrist moderates who say big things are too difficult to do!!!

 

[Js1 85336]

Ok. This is dumb. You lost the endorsement, get over it. 

[bad_teammate 13195]

Jacobin lost the WFP endorsement?

[Mojo Hand 4580]

I forget who it was, but one of the anti-M4A Dem candidates argued in the first debate that unions would never want to give up the great private plans they negotiate for.  Counterpoint:

 

[Hank Scorpio 17729]

43 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Hugo and bad,

You can call everyone idiots and Republicans all you want, but the bottom line is that huge swaths of your own Democratic Party is standing up and saying M4A is not viable. It leaves voters confused and unclear about such an important critical issue, and until you can get your own party in agreement, or at least close to it, you look like spastic fools to everyone else.

I know, it's fucking insane that people are arguing about this in the primary phase of the election process. How is there not a united policy front that everyone agrees with and then we just pick the candidate that we want to have a beer with most? 

[Hank Kingsley 20938]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

No one wants to hear from her ever again 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

As we get closer and closer to a Bernie loss, BT is beginning to spiral into the abyss.  As was mentioned above, anything that isn't Bernie far left, is considered far right to our resident BernieBro.  

[bad_teammate 13195]

Imagine your strongest feelings on this issue being about how much you dislike a poster and not fury at the legions of powerful bastards who want people like this to quietly die for political simplicity and profit.

Must be hell.

[bad_teammate 13195]

14 hours ago, Js1 said:

Though if Joe is really winning the black vote 49-13 (Liz)-10 (Harris) by March, it's still over.  He will clean up in the South. 

The polls are only vaguely useful, but... yeah.

If I was an oddsmaker, I'd have Biden at 50% likely to win the Dem nomination (Bernie & Liz around 25% each).

[Dbeasy 15051]

I know, it's fucking insane that people are arguing about this in the primary phase of the election process. How is there not a united policy front that everyone agrees with and then we just pick the candidate that we want to have a beer with most? 

Scorpio’d. Funny, but missed the point so only a 5 out of 10 on the Scorpio scale. The point is not that there can’t be disagreement and discussion on issues. It’s that these two individuals refuse to acknowledge that the case for M4A has not yet been made, even within the group that is supposedly on the same side. Argue for it all they want, but don’t be an immature punk by calling everyone Republicans that don’t agree with them. It’s childish and doesn’t advance their case. It just makes them look dumb.

[Hank Kingsley 20938]

DMRegister will be the more substantiative Iowa poll that's supposed to come out this week, but here's a new one.

 

 

Edited September 18, 2019 by Hank Kingsley

[Js1 85336]

Quote

Focus on Rural America

[zork 629]

16 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

DMRegister will be the more substantiative Iowa poll that's supposed to come out this week, but here's a new one.

 

 

alittleracist.gif re Kamala?

what was the racial component ratio of those polled, I'm guessing 90% Iowan whitey?

Iowa demographics as a whole:

Race	Population
White	2,824,197
Black or African American	106,762
Asian	71,178
Two or More Races	62,734
Some Other Race	39,527
American Indian and Alaska Native	10,791
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander	2,913

 

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population/

Edited September 18, 2019 by zork

[tantric superman 4667]

Damn.   Getting many emails from Cory Booker:  Sorry to inform you, tantric, that we did not meet our funding goals.  Less than 19K away, though....

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just got a little fundraising packet in the snail mail from Pete.

[Js1 85336]

33 minutes ago, zork said:

alittleracist.gif re Kamala?

what was the racial component ratio of those polled, I'm guessing 90% Iowan whitey?

Iowa demographics as a whole:

Race	Population
White	2,824,197
Black or African American	106,762
Asian	71,178
Two or More Races	62,734
Some Other Race	39,527
American Indian and Alaska Native	10,791
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander	2,913

 

http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population/

Key words - "Focus on Rural America"

Do you know a lot of minorities in rural America? 

[Hank Kingsley 20938]

It's Iowa, Zork. 

But Kamala dropped 13 points in this poll, so she was doing well in the previous version. 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20938]

Another Iowa poll 

 

[Js1 85336]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

It's Iowa, Zork. 

But Kamala dropped 13 points in this poll, so she was doing well in the previous version. 

 

Her campaign is cooked.  I don't even know what it would take to resuscitate it.  An Obama or Hillary endorsement would be the only thing (maybe?) and neither is going to jump into this race and place their thumb on the scale in September 2019.  

This race right now is

Tier 1
Biden
Warren

Tier 2
Bernie

Tier 3
Kamala
Pete
Yang

Tier 4
Amy
Booker
Beto
Castro

Tier 5
FUCK OFF AND GET OUT OF THIS GOD DAMN RACE YOU GRIFTERS

[zork 629]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-kamala-and-beto-have-more-upside-than-joe-and-bernie/

old article.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Js1 85336]

Only 5.5% of the Arizona vote went to "Someone else" so these idiots need to shit or get off the pot.  Worthless GE poll when "someone else" is 2-3x what is what 4 years ago. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Worthless GE poll

I consider all general election polls worthless right now.  There are too many undefined variables this far out. 

[BrickHorn 18234]

Warren has made this a tight two-horse race.  I like her chances to pick up Bernie votes once he falls out.  She’s got more upside at this point.

[Js1 85336]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Warren has made this a tight two-horse race.  I like her chances to pick up Bernie votes once he falls out.  She’s got more upside at this point.

She's pretty much snatched Harris' college-educated white supporters.  The question is, can she gobble up the college-educated white liberals from Pete and then make significant inroads with non-college educated white moderates/conservatives within the party (aka, Biden voters), WWC (Biden/Bernie voters), and draw any significant chunk of black voters from Biden and what's left of Kamala. 

Time will tell.  There's a reason why Biden is still the favorite - his WWC base in Iowa is keeping him in front there and his black base is keeping him with a huge lead in the southern primaries. 

[Biff Tannen 45684]

7 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Warren has made this a tight two-horse race.  I like her chances to pick up Bernie votes once he falls out.  She’s got more upside at this point.

Bernie isn't going to fall out unless he is defeated in the primary.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Bernie has enough money to probably go the distance. 

[zork 629]

The only way Biden loses is if tapes come out about his alleged interference with Ukraine/Russian(and kickbacks for his son)  via some new twitter name, that is all the rage with Dems doing it to R's, like BolshevikBiden, or BoleslavBiden, or somesuch.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[DixonHur 11304]

Another poll...I think the "Not Sure / Never Heard Of" numbers are a big advantage for Warren, because it's clear that once people get to know her, they come away with a favorable impression.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Obviously I’m biased but Warren is just on a whole different level.  I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t win the nomination convincingly.  

[Js1 85336]

Wait do people still think we aren't going to go a brokered convention?  There's no way any of the top 3 get enough delegates to win outright. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, Js1 said:

Wait do people still think we aren't going to go a brokered convention?  There's no way any of the top 3 get enough delegates to win outright. 

Bookmarked

[DixonHur 11304]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Wait do people still think we aren't going to go a brokered convention?  There's no way any of the top 3 get enough delegates to win outright. 

Even if that happened, I'm confident Warren would be the nominee.  If it's a three-way race, Biden stands out as the obvious outsider.  Bernie's supporters are much more in-line with Warren than they are Biden, and Warren and Bernie are good friends.  At some point, Bernie will realize that he's either got to drop out and support Warren, or Biden will be the nominee.  I think he's practical enough to do the right thing.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

The IowaStateU poll from today:

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_ISU_banner_book_2019_09_release.pdf

[zork 629]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bookmarked

All Biden has to do is fake cramps along the way so the trainers can come out and resuscitate his potentially flat lining, yet still leading, poll numbers.  Other Dems will complain about the press continually resuscitating thus keeping his name in the news and off the brain addled gaffes and Ukraine favoritism for his son while part of the Obama Administration. #BolshevikBiden

Edited September 18, 2019 by zork

[Js1 85336]

[Js1 85336]

28 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Another poll...I think the "Not Sure / Never Heard Of" numbers are a big advantage for Warren, because it's clear that once people get to know her, they come away with a favorable impression.

Those are fucking huge "unsure/unheard of" numbers for everyone outside the top 3.

My advice to Harris: get really personal.  Stop being rehearsed and canned.  She feels inauthentic.  She could handle a 180 by just being authentic, telling her story about growing up bi-racial and leaning into her progressive prosecutor record.  In her personal events, she does a lot better.  But the TV lights come on and she just seizes up.  You know why people like Liz, Biden and Bernie?  They're authentic.  Bernie is who he is.  Uncle Joe is a persona and Joe is embracing it 100%.  Liz is running through crowds, waving like a dork and drinking tea on Instagram live. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by Js1

[RDCanecutter 26442]

I agree that Harris should fake some authenticity.

[horncyclist 1387]

27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Those are fucking huge "unsure/unheard of" numbers for everyone outside the top 3.

My advice to Harris: get really personal.  Stop being rehearsed and canned.  She feels inauthentic.  She could handle a 180 by just being authentic, telling her story about growing up bi-racial and leaning into her progressive prosecutor record.  In her personal events, she does a lot better.  But the TV lights come on and she just seizes up.  You know why people like Liz, Biden and Bernie?  They're authentic.  Bernie is who he is.  Uncle Joe is a persona and Joe is embracing it 100%.  Liz is running through crowds, waving like a dork and drinking tea on Instagram live. 

I don't think she's capable be of being authentic, which is her problem. She's built her political life around maintaining a facade, which has worked so far but not here.

[Hank Kingsley 20938]

Biden’s only electability argument is that he is leading in the polls. It’s not policy, it’s not temperament, it’s not that he’s the best to go up against Trump. It’s only polling.

The beginning of the end for his candidacy begins soon. The minute that Warren jumps him in a major poll, people will start abandoning him. The question then becomes who grabs most of the current Biden voters.

I agree with Hugo that if Warren keeps this momentum it will catapult her to the nomination.