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5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This.  

His campaign strategy is foolishly based around "electability". 

why is that foolish?  it's one of the only pro's biden can tout.

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

why is that foolish?  it's one of the only pro's biden can tout.

It’s foolish because you’re solely defining yourself by your potential opponent and not giving voters a legitimate or substantive reason to vote for you.

Bernie has campaigned on “electability” too (“Bernie beats Trump”) but it’s not the ONLY thing he’s selling.  He actually has a destination he want to move the country towards beyond a status quo of the past. 

Joe Biden’s campaign strategy would fall apart if Trump dropped dead tomorrow which is why it is foolish to run on “electability” almost exclusively.

The Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg campaigns would survive because they are articulating some kind of forward thinking vision beyond “not Trump.” 

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s foolish because you’re solely defining yourself by your potential opponent and not giving voters a legitimate or substantive reason to vote for you.

Bernie has campaigned on “electability” too (“Bernie beats Trump”) but it’s not the ONLY thing he’s selling.  He actually has a destination he want to move the country towards beyond a status quo of the past. 

Joe Biden’s campaign strategy would fall apart if Trump dropped dead tomorrow which is why it is foolish to run on “electability” almost exclusively.

The Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg campaigns would survive because they are articulating some kind of forward thinking vision beyond “not Trump.” 

you gotta play to your strengths.  biden doesn't have many.

I must be the only person on this thread that believes Trump wins re-election if Sanders is who he’s up against. No offense to Sanders. And of course passionate democratic voter turnout could cause me to be completely wrong.

10 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I must be the only person on this thread that believes Trump wins re-election if Sanders is who he’s up against. No offense to Sanders. And of course passionate democratic voter turnout could cause me to be completely wrong.

Take FWIW, but even a fox poll has Bernie beating trump.  Not that polls are really trustworthy (link shows Biden beating him handily and I think trump would look like the stronger candidate in a debate), but I think Bernie brings back the voters who voted Obama and switched to trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I must be the only person on this thread that believes Trump wins re-election if Sanders is who he’s up against.

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Something we almost never talk about but really should is the pathways through the battlegrounds.

2020 swings:

Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arizona, Colorado, Virginia, and Michigan (bold = high pop.vote:EC value)

Dangerous electoral groups for Berno:
- Super-olds in Florida
- Rich people in Pennsylvania & Virginia
- Conservatives in Arizona
- O&G people in Colorado

I think all the Dems have decent roadways, but IMO Bernie's path is clear and very strong and obvious. I don't see his weakness in the 3 highest pop:EC value states, and he doesn't even need Florida if he can get Penn, Wisc, and Michigan back.

(It's hilarious to look at that map and see how badly Hillary got owned.)

An argument could be made that Bernie is more vulnerable to a GOP general election strategy but that’s about it.

I don't know how Hugo is even typing right now.  Hillary is coming to Austin this weekend, along with Chelsea.  I would think you'd be just raining blows around your house right now.  

Fucking Obama with the cOlLeGe CaMpUsEs bullshit.

Can't wait for his Netflix special, "Triggered: Melting Snowflakes with Mature Pragmatism"

lol

There are more egregious examples of CNN and MSNBC constantly trying to pretend Bernie doesn't exist and they are numerous over the months, but this one struck me as particularly funny.

Warren down 3 points in a 4.1%MOE poll? Top Tier
Bernie down 1 point in a 4.6%MOE poll? Also-Ran

It's a tough balance if you're on the STOP BERNIE train, because you can stifle his outsider appeal by either supporting him outright or at least not treating him unfairly, but he's so hostile to your elite class interests that you can't risk him actually winning and you can't bring yourself to even pretend to not hate him.

This class of people would rather have a second term of Trump than Bernie Sanders in the White House, because their places are not only assured under Trump, their opportunities for climbing are increased.

17 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I must be the only person on this thread that believes Trump wins re-election if Sanders is who he’s up against. No offense to Sanders. And of course passionate democratic voter turnout could cause me to be completely wrong.

bernie would bring out the fringe just like trump did. it could be interesting.

Bernie Sanders is the only candidate with a coherent vision for how to actually get progressive policy passed.

Can someone explain to me how President Buttigieg or President Warren gets Manchin onboard with a wealth tax or Medicare for All Who Want It?

Hillary is going to get Tulsi into the Nov. and Dec. debates. Good job, good effort. 

 

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Hillary is going to get Tulsi into the Nov. and Dec. debates. Good job, good effort. 

 

A lot of that has to be Republicans, yeah? There's no way 1 in 25 actual Democrats prefers Tulsi.

Edited by BradInATX

17 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

A lot of that has to be Republicans, yeah? There's no way 1 in 25 actual Democrats prefers Tulsi.

Yes, Hillary energized Republicans to support Tulsi.  They were already sympathetic towards her, but you add in Hillary, which makes them hornier than a bumblebee, and now they LOVE her. 

22 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

She'll stay through California and then be out.  After Super Tuesday, I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 candidates left - Biden, Warren, Bernie.

Edit: I say that now, but John McCain was dead in the water October-November-December 2007.  

Edited by Js1

Bernie Sanders is the only candidate with a coherent vision for how to actually get progressive policy passed.
Can someone explain to me how President Buttigieg or President Warren gets Manchin onboard with a wealth tax or Medicare for All Who Want It?


They will go to those states, just like Sanders, and either have some success or no success getting people on-board. Sanders has no magical powers here. And oh by the way, keep shoveling The Green New Deal and some of its unrealistic and downright bad policy ideas and you will definitely stick Trump back in the White House. There are interesting aspirational ideas in the Green New Deal but it’s trying to boil the ocean and comes across like fantasyland. Unless the narrative of GND changes over time, it’s going to really hurt the Democrats.
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

They will go to those states, just like Sanders, and either have some success or no success getting people on-board.

Has either of them said they will actually do this?

A Democratic president going to a Democratic senators state to speak out against their reluctance or no-vote doesn't have any recent precedent and it's not a thing Presidents do. When Lieberman was holding out on the ACA, Obama talked with him in private twice and then killed the public option to get Lieberman's vote.

This was 2009 Obama, the one with the supermajority in Congress and the people still in love. He could've had 50k+ people marching in Hartford. I would've flown in from Houston to do it. NYC is full of people who would've done the 3 hours from Penn to Union. But nope, that's for idealistic idiot losers who don't understand the real pragmatism of the grown Adults In The Room.

And hey, only 9% of Americans are uninsured under that compromise plan and only 45k/year die from being uninsured so that's a small price to pay for pragmatic, bipartisan, serious, and mature legislating and leadership.

Quote

Sanders has no magical powers here. And oh by the way, keep shoveling The Green New Deal and some of its unrealistic and downright bad policy ideas and you will definitely stick Trump back in the White House.

Thanks for this it will go right into the file labelled "Advice (VERY Concerned)"

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yes, Hillary energized Republicans to support Tulsi.  They were already sympathetic towards her, but you add in Hillary, which makes them hornier than a bumblebee, and now they LOVE her. 

Tulsi support drawing from who the most? I have to think Bernie and Yang.

Yang might also be taking from Bernie. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Tulsi support drawing from who the most? I have to think Bernie and Yang.

Yang might also be taking from Bernie. 

Biden gets a lot of Republicans too.  I think in the NH poll, he was second among Republican-leaners. 

Why are Republicans being counted in Dem primary polls that determine who gets on the debate stage? 

16 minutes ago, Mojo Hand said:

Why are Republicans being counted in Dem primary polls that determine who gets on the debate stage? 

Open primary states

Manchin also told Fox that he would vote against the Sanders agenda, calling it "not practical where I come from."

Context: Bernie won every single county in the West Virginia primary in 2016. All 55 counties went to Sanders.

The war within the Democratic Party going on right now is important and meaningful. Manchin and others like him within the party are not going to support any progressive change. They are telling you who they are, and it's up to you to actually listen and engage.

We cannot fix the many problems we face with a Democratic Party who is not challenging members like Joe Manchin. The people will be behind us if we push for bold, progressive change.

 

Waiting for Neera Tanden to scold Manchin for refusing to supporter a potential Democratic nominee. 

Bill Clinton: Hillary may or may not run.

 

 

Edited by Hornius Emeritus

7 hours ago, zork said:

 

This makes no sense.

5 hours ago, F250 said:

This makes no sense.

Republicans think that picture is funny. Look ma! Pocohantes is wearing an injun headdress! And that black lady has a  cop hat on!

They’re idiots. 

 

Biden in 4th place in a poll? That is the truest poll ever polled.

2/3 could change their minds

Yes, because we keep allowing also-rans like Tulsi, Castro, Booker and Beto in debates!

THIS WILL NEVER BE SETTLED PROPERLY BEFORE VOTING unless we get a true debate with the top 5 and only the top 5.  And it won't be November.  Or December.  

The big thing about that Iowa poll is it amplifies the narrative that Joe can't/won't win the primary. 

All the cable news shows will continue to talk about how much trouble he's in. Biden's "base" is gonna bail. Hell, it's already happening. 

 

 

If you look at the crosstabs, the olds love Biden and they love Mayor Pete. As Biden fails, Pete gets the honor of becoming more and more dependent on securing the votes of ancient, dying white people who are afraid someone might give young people the same benefits they themselves have been getting.

I think Pete sees that coming and has been setting himself up to catch that pitch. (hey-o!)

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If you look at the crosstabs, the olds love Biden and they love Mayor Pete. As Biden fails, Pete gets the honor of becoming more and more dependent on securing the votes of ancient, dying white people who are afraid someone might give young people the same benefits they themselves have been getting.

I think Pete sees that coming and has been setting himself up to catch that pitch. (hey-o!)

Well good news for Joe and Pete is that ancient, dying white people show the fuck up to the Iowa caucus.  Because they ain't got much else to do but vote and die. 

Iowa: 88% non-Hispanic white
New Hampshire: 92% non-Hispanic white
America: 61% non-Hispanic white

Sorry Kamala and Cory!!

10 hours ago, F250 said:

This makes no sense.

idiots are getting better at comedy and it’s starting to bother non-idiots. 

People in Iowa have brain damage from sucking ethanol fumes 

 

I was really disappointed some (most?) of the 2020 contenders didn't show up to help campaign in the North Carolina House special election.  Per WaPo, I am very very glad the 2020ers are showing up in Virginia where Dems can gain a trifecta.  

 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

People in Iowa have brain damage from sucking ethanol fumes 

 

The framing of these polling questions are not great.  You can fight for bold progressive agenda and promise to find common ground, they are not mutually exclusive.  Same with bringing politics back to “normal” (whatever the fuck that means) and working towards fundamental systematic change to American society.  

It’s like this poll was written by Nate Silver designed to produce a certain outcome.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz

24 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The framing of these polling questions are not great.  You can fight for bold progressive agenda and promise to find common, they are not mutually exclusive.  Same with bringing politics back to “normal” (whatever the fuck that means) and working towards fundamental systematic change to American society.  

It’s like this poll was written by Nate Silver designed to produce a certain outcome.

i would imagine the majority of the people answering these calls have a medium degree of difficulty with yes-or-no questions.  framing them this way probably causes more strokes than necessary.

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