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2020 Democratic Nominee

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Biden is fucked

This.  

His campaign strategy is foolishly based around "electability".  If Biden can't come in third in Iowa and NH, the whole electability nonsense falls apart and you will likely see a snowball effect going into super Tuesday.  He MIGHT win South Carolina and some other Southern states if he can hold onto his black support but that is a big "if".  I know the pundit class/media/polls are still considering Biden the front runner but anyone paying attention to the last debate could see he most certainly is not.  No one on that stage was afraid of Joe Biden and that was the biggest tell. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21598

Posted
Posted (edited)

Here's all the data from that CNN New Hampshire poll: https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1567&context=survey_center_polls

One thing that just caught my attention:

Of the current Buttigieg voters, 19% of them have Bernie as their second choice. 

Of the current Bernie voters, ZERO percent of them have Buttigieg as their second choice. 

LMAO. Progressive media journalists have killed Pete for months. Looks like it's working in NH with Bernie voters. 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

why is that foolish?  it's one of the only pro's biden can tout.

It’s foolish because you’re solely defining yourself by your potential opponent and not giving voters a legitimate or substantive reason to vote for you.

Bernie has campaigned on “electability” too (“Bernie beats Trump”) but it’s not the ONLY thing he’s selling.  He actually has a destination he want to move the country towards beyond a status quo of the past. 

Joe Biden’s campaign strategy would fall apart if Trump dropped dead tomorrow which is why it is foolish to run on “electability” almost exclusively.

The Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg campaigns would survive because they are articulating some kind of forward thinking vision beyond “not Trump.” 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29218

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s foolish because you’re solely defining yourself by your potential opponent and not giving voters a legitimate or substantive reason to vote for you.

Bernie has campaigned on “electability” too (“Bernie beats Trump”) but it’s not the ONLY thing he’s selling.  He actually has a destination he want to move the country towards beyond a status quo of the past. 

Joe Biden’s campaign strategy would fall apart if Trump dropped dead tomorrow which is why it is foolish to run on “electability” almost exclusively.

The Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg campaigns would survive because they are articulating some kind of forward thinking vision beyond “not Trump.” 

you gotta play to your strengths.  biden doesn't have many.

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Todd Gack

Todd Gack 448

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10 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I must be the only person on this thread that believes Trump wins re-election if Sanders is who he’s up against. No offense to Sanders. And of course passionate democratic voter turnout could cause me to be completely wrong.

Take FWIW, but even a fox poll has Bernie beating trump.  Not that polls are really trustworthy (link shows Biden beating him handily and I think trump would look like the stronger candidate in a debate), but I think Bernie brings back the voters who voted Obama and switched to trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13479

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8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I must be the only person on this thread that believes Trump wins re-election if Sanders is who he’s up against.

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Something we almost never talk about but really should is the pathways through the battlegrounds.

2020 swings:

Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Arizona, Colorado, Virginia, and Michigan (bold = high pop.vote:EC value)

Dangerous electoral groups for Berno:
- Super-olds in Florida
- Rich people in Pennsylvania & Virginia
- Conservatives in Arizona
- O&G people in Colorado

I think all the Dems have decent roadways, but IMO Bernie's path is clear and very strong and obvious. I don't see his weakness in the 3 highest pop:EC value states, and he doesn't even need Florida if he can get Penn, Wisc, and Michigan back.

(It's hilarious to look at that map and see how badly Hillary got owned.)

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I don't know how Hugo is even typing right now.  Hillary is coming to Austin this weekend, along with Chelsea.  I would think you'd be just raining blows around your house right now.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13479

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lol

There are more egregious examples of CNN and MSNBC constantly trying to pretend Bernie doesn't exist and they are numerous over the months, but this one struck me as particularly funny.

Warren down 3 points in a 4.1%MOE poll? Top Tier
Bernie down 1 point in a 4.6%MOE poll? Also-Ran

It's a tough balance if you're on the STOP BERNIE train, because you can stifle his outsider appeal by either supporting him outright or at least not treating him unfairly, but he's so hostile to your elite class interests that you can't risk him actually winning and you can't bring yourself to even pretend to not hate him.

This class of people would rather have a second term of Trump than Bernie Sanders in the White House, because their places are not only assured under Trump, their opportunities for climbing are increased.

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thrillhammer

thrillhammer 686

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17 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I must be the only person on this thread that believes Trump wins re-election if Sanders is who he’s up against. No offense to Sanders. And of course passionate democratic voter turnout could cause me to be completely wrong.

bernie would bring out the fringe just like trump did. it could be interesting.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Hillary is going to get Tulsi into the Nov. and Dec. debates. Good job, good effort. 

 

A lot of that has to be Republicans, yeah? There's no way 1 in 25 actual Democrats prefers Tulsi.

Edited by BradInATX
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Js1

Js1 86924

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

A lot of that has to be Republicans, yeah? There's no way 1 in 25 actual Democrats prefers Tulsi.

Yes, Hillary energized Republicans to support Tulsi.  They were already sympathetic towards her, but you add in Hillary, which makes them hornier than a bumblebee, and now they LOVE her. 

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Js1

Js1 86924

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

She'll stay through California and then be out.  After Super Tuesday, I wouldn't be surprised to see 3 candidates left - Biden, Warren, Bernie.

Edit: I say that now, but John McCain was dead in the water October-November-December 2007.  

Edited by Js1
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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15526

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Posted
Bernie Sanders is the only candidate with a coherent vision for how to actually get progressive policy passed.
Can someone explain to me how President Buttigieg or President Warren gets Manchin onboard with a wealth tax or Medicare for All Who Want It?


They will go to those states, just like Sanders, and either have some success or no success getting people on-board. Sanders has no magical powers here. And oh by the way, keep shoveling The Green New Deal and some of its unrealistic and downright bad policy ideas and you will definitely stick Trump back in the White House. There are interesting aspirational ideas in the Green New Deal but it’s trying to boil the ocean and comes across like fantasyland. Unless the narrative of GND changes over time, it’s going to really hurt the Democrats.
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13479

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2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

They will go to those states, just like Sanders, and either have some success or no success getting people on-board.

Has either of them said they will actually do this?

A Democratic president going to a Democratic senators state to speak out against their reluctance or no-vote doesn't have any recent precedent and it's not a thing Presidents do. When Lieberman was holding out on the ACA, Obama talked with him in private twice and then killed the public option to get Lieberman's vote.

This was 2009 Obama, the one with the supermajority in Congress and the people still in love. He could've had 50k+ people marching in Hartford. I would've flown in from Houston to do it. NYC is full of people who would've done the 3 hours from Penn to Union. But nope, that's for idealistic idiot losers who don't understand the real pragmatism of the grown Adults In The Room.

And hey, only 9% of Americans are uninsured under that compromise plan and only 45k/year die from being uninsured so that's a small price to pay for pragmatic, bipartisan, serious, and mature legislating and leadership.

Quote

Sanders has no magical powers here. And oh by the way, keep shoveling The Green New Deal and some of its unrealistic and downright bad policy ideas and you will definitely stick Trump back in the White House.

Thanks for this it will go right into the file labelled "Advice (VERY Concerned)"

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yes, Hillary energized Republicans to support Tulsi.  They were already sympathetic towards her, but you add in Hillary, which makes them hornier than a bumblebee, and now they LOVE her. 

Tulsi support drawing from who the most? I have to think Bernie and Yang.

Yang might also be taking from Bernie. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Js1

Js1 86924

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Tulsi support drawing from who the most? I have to think Bernie and Yang.

Yang might also be taking from Bernie. 

Biden gets a lot of Republicans too.  I think in the NH poll, he was second among Republican-leaners. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13479

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Manchin also told Fox that he would vote against the Sanders agenda, calling it "not practical where I come from."

Context: Bernie won every single county in the West Virginia primary in 2016. All 55 counties went to Sanders.

The war within the Democratic Party going on right now is important and meaningful. Manchin and others like him within the party are not going to support any progressive change. They are telling you who they are, and it's up to you to actually listen and engage.

We cannot fix the many problems we face with a Democratic Party who is not challenging members like Joe Manchin. The people will be behind us if we push for bold, progressive change.

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Js1

Js1 86924

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2/3 could change their minds

Yes, because we keep allowing also-rans like Tulsi, Castro, Booker and Beto in debates!

THIS WILL NEVER BE SETTLED PROPERLY BEFORE VOTING unless we get a true debate with the top 5 and only the top 5.  And it won't be November.  Or December.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13479

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If you look at the crosstabs, the olds love Biden and they love Mayor Pete. As Biden fails, Pete gets the honor of becoming more and more dependent on securing the votes of ancient, dying white people who are afraid someone might give young people the same benefits they themselves have been getting.

I think Pete sees that coming and has been setting himself up to catch that pitch. (hey-o!)

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Js1

Js1 86924

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4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If you look at the crosstabs, the olds love Biden and they love Mayor Pete. As Biden fails, Pete gets the honor of becoming more and more dependent on securing the votes of ancient, dying white people who are afraid someone might give young people the same benefits they themselves have been getting.

I think Pete sees that coming and has been setting himself up to catch that pitch. (hey-o!)

Well good news for Joe and Pete is that ancient, dying white people show the fuck up to the Iowa caucus.  Because they ain't got much else to do but vote and die. 

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Js1

Js1 86924

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I was really disappointed some (most?) of the 2020 contenders didn't show up to help campaign in the North Carolina House special election.  Per WaPo, I am very very glad the 2020ers are showing up in Virginia where Dems can gain a trifecta.  

 

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