2020 Democratic Nominee

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20834]

Poll:  overwhelming majority of Democrats will vote for Democrat nominee, no matter who it is:

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/468882-overwhelming-majority-of-democratic-voters-say-they-would-back-whoever-becomes

[RayDog 682]

The majority of people who want to vote against Trump will vote against Trump regardless of who the Democrats chose.

The corporate media's support of Biden is part of their con job and without the Corporate media pimping him he would already be in 3rd place.

Edited November 5, 2019 by RayDog

[Dbeasy 15526]

I would be shocked that self professed Democrats would either stay home or not vote for a candidate they didn’t rate as their top pick. Democrat hatred for Trump is so high that won’t be the problem.

The problem is the ~10-15% swing vote that decides the election. These people will vote for whichever candidate, Republican or Democrat, that resonates most closely to them.

That 10-15% is a mix of highly informed and terribly informed voters. They could prioritize high levels ideals or the likability of the candidate or any of a number of other criteria.

Some of the factors I think are important are:

1. Image while speaking
2. Likability
3. Fairness of policies (in both directions: individual responsibility vs society responsibility)
4. Memes
5. Facebook posts
6. Riskiness of the candidates policies
7. Sex, race, nationality, sexual preference
8. Ability to tap into public’s emotions
9. Integrity
10. Behavior
11. Right vs wrong/illegal

When you look at that list, despite Trump being a terrible person, he’s managed to twist reality for enough dumb, poorly informed voters to look like a viable candidate. Take that list and compare Trump and Warren. Unfortunately, this is going to be much closer than it should be.

1. Image - almost half the population is oblivious to his bullshit.
2. Likability- almost half is still clinging to the outsider drain the swamp bs
3. Fairness - Warren student debt cancellation, free college and m4a policies will alienate a significant portion of the 10-15%
4-5. Trump campaign is using memes and Facebook very effectively.
6. See 3. Trump tells everyone what they want to hear and Warrens policies sound risky.
7. Woman vs man. Personally I think the world has reached the point where a woman should be an advantage but I don’t think that’s what’s happened yet.
8. Trump is the king of emotions.
9. This should the disqualifier for Trump as president, but you have to be an informed voter to see thru all of the Republican and Fox News obfuscation, and I think only a small percentage of the 10-15% pays close attention to things.
10. Some don’t see Trump’s behavior as unacceptable, which is a head scratcher for me. That is obvious that anyone should be able to see.
11. Another head scratcher. People don’t seem to care. Or maybe the obfuscation is keeping people from becoming outraged.

This is going to be a 51/49 election and it could go either way, unfortunately.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

This is a big deal. I don't know why it took this long for Democrats to start combating what Parscale is doing for Trump on the internet. 

 

[RDCanecutter 26851]

That fedora.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

This is a big deal. I don't know why it took this long for Democrats to start combating what Parscale is doing for Trump on the internet. 

 

They’re not targeting Florida for some reason.  Perhaps they know the cake is baked there or Florida is too vulnerable to compromise.  Probably a little bit of both given the midterms. 

[henrygandorf 29218]

11 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

This is going to be a 51/49 election and it could go either way, unfortunately.

if you're talking about popular vote, this is a 54-46 election for the dems.

but yeah, because only 3-4 states will decide this election, he could definitely thread the needle for a 2nd time if everything falls perfectly.

[Bruh Man 3160]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

They’re not targeting Florida for some reason.  Perhaps they know the cake is baked there or Florida is too vulnerable to compromise.  Probably a little bit of both given the midterms. 

$75M is not that much. Better to focus those resources on the true battleground states. Ohio and Florida seem lean R states now. 

 

[bad_teammate 13479]

Huge blue shifts in college towns and urban areas where young people live?

Seems like it might be a good idea to go with a candidate that younger voters and urban workers love.

[henrygandorf 29218]

28 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Seems like it might be a good idea to go with a candidate that younger voters and urban workers love.

also someone who swept all the counties in west virginia. 

[bad_teammate 13479]

Lee Carter, filthy socialist, wins re-election in Virginia

Seems like maybe Americans don't care about these labels maybe?

[Bruh Man 3160]

Dems really need to get their messaging air tight around this issue of M4A. Although I agree with the philosophy, I have zero faith in D's being able to sell it to the public.  

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

2 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Dems really need to get their messaging air tight around this issue of M4A. Although I agree with the philosophy, I have zero faith in D's being able to sell it to the public.  

 

Dems need to stop listening to fear mongering republican media pundits, they also need to stop doing the GOP’s work for them by echoing their bullshit.  

Dems have two of the strongest credible advocates leaning directly into Medicare-for-all and they aren’t losing a damn thing in the polls because of it.  The candidates that got cold feet on single payer healthcare have arguably suffered the most because of it.  

These are observations that people choose to ignore.  

Bernie and Liz are great salespeople that can market this idea better than anyone.  They have been successful it their campaigns because they aren’t playing it safe, they are calling out the bullshit head on. 

[BradInATX 9208]

 

 

 

The candidates that got cold feet on single payer healthcare have arguably suffered the most because of it.  

These are observations that people choose to ignore.  

Bernie and Liz are great salespeople that can market this idea better than anyone.  They have been successful it their campaigns because they aren’t playing it safe, they are calling out the bullshit head on. 

 

Since Warren's M4A plan has gotten the spotlight her polling is down and Biden's is up.

You've got a nice rah rah narrative but it's not based on anything concrete. Your narrative is purely wishful thinking based on your own bias and hopes.

 

[GSU&UT 1799]

10 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Dems need to stop listening to fear mongering republican media pundits, they also need to stop doing the GOP’s work for them by echoing their bullshit.  

Dems have two of the strongest credible advocates leaning directly into Medicare-for-all and they aren’t losing a damn thing in the polls because of it.  The candidates that got cold feet on single payer healthcare have arguably suffered the most because of it.  

These are observations that people choose to ignore.  

Bernie and Liz are great salespeople that can market this idea better than anyone.  They have been successful it their campaigns because they aren’t playing it safe, they are calling out the bullshit head on. 

Right, the messaging isn't hard or complicated. Just constantly run ads of "Do you actually like your insurance company? When was the last time you trusted them to actually cover you if you needed medical care?" Regular people don't trust insurance companies, they just are scared of not having insurance.

[tantric superman 4668]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Since Warren's M4A plan has gotten the spotlight her polling is down and Biden's is up.
You've got a nice rah rah narrative but it's not based on anything but your own bias.

Well, I think Hugo is going to blame that on all of us cowards buying the right wing scare tactics. 

In 2016 the three folks who replaced republicans (Dallas) in my district where low key moderates.  The KY governorship is likely going to won by a moderate.

I absolutely buy the argument that the Right is going to paint EVERY Dem as a godless commonist, but just because that is the case, it doesn't mean that a moderate candidate might not have a better shot.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Just now, GSU&UT said:

Right, the messaging isn't hard or complicated. Just constantly run ads of "Do you actually like your insurance company? When was the last time you trusted them to actually cover you if you needed medical care?" Regular people don't trust insurance companies, they just are scared of not having insurance.

“When someone says a single payer healthcare system is going to take away your private insurance what they’re really telling you is you should be thankful the insurance companies have the right to screw you over just before you go bankrupt and die.”

[tantric superman 4668]

3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

When was the last time you trusted them to actually cover you if you needed medical care?" Regular people don't trust insurance companies, they just are scared of not having insurance.

Again, that's not the question in a vacuum.  The question is, do American's trust the federal government to do a better job with providing insurance for their healthcare needs than they trust insurance companies? 

 

[RDCanecutter 26851]

My NYT (which I read every morning in paper form, while reclining with a golden mug filled with the Platonic ideal of coffee) has been running anti-Warren editorials every few days. I am rather surprised at that.

[GSU&UT 1799]

Just now, tantric superman said:

Again, that's not the question in a vacuum.  The question is, do American's trust the federal government to do a better job with providing insurance for their healthcare needs than they trust insurance companies? 

 

"America, do you think it's fair that only people over 65 get Medicare? Have you ever stuck with a job because you didn't want to lose your health insurance? Do you trust your health insurance company to always cover your procedures with no questions asked?"

You're coming from a angle where people hate Medicare which is absolutely not reflected in actual polling, these are GOP talking points and not rooted in actual reality.

https://www.asaging.org/blog/medicare-reflected-public-opinion

https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/seniors-love-medicare-but-are-pessimistic-about-its-long-term-future/548721/

[tantric superman 4668]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

You're coming from a angle where people hate Medicare which is absolutely not reflected in actual polling, these are GOP talking points and not rooted in actual reality.

I'm not remotely focusing on that.  I'm focusing on people's general fear of change and current hatred of the federal government. 

[Fozzz 152]

Warren seems to be really starting to slip in the polls and at the least her previous momentum has clearly stagnated.  Is it gonna come down to Mayor Mayonnaise versus Bernie?

[bad_teammate 13479]

2 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

My NYT (which I read every morning in paper form, while reclining with a golden mug filled with the Platonic ideal of coffee) has been running anti-Warren editorials every few days. I am rather surprised at that.

The mass media is nothing more than the mouthpiece of elite wealth. It is in love with identity-based progressivism (being racially woke, supporting transgender rights, etc...), but their primary purpose is to protect the interests of the people who write their paychecks so class/economic progressivism is their enemy.

Before this financing plan, the elite classes had convinced themselves that they could get Warren to play ball and sacrifice her ideals. Now that she's signalling that's not the case, they are going to turn on her.

This is why we are getting headlines like "BUTTIGIEG SURGING IN POLLS" when he rises 2 points and is still 15 points behind 3rd place.

[tantric superman 4668]

1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

Warren seems to be really starting to slip in the polls and at the least her previous momentum has clearly stagnated.  Is it gonna come down to Mayor Mayonnaise versus Bernie?

with some "oh shit, shouldn't we consider the woman (Klob) or KrazeeEyez" thrown in at the last minute....

[bad_teammate 13479]

2 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I'm focusing on people's general fear of change and current hatred of the federal government. 

Hatred of the people currently in power is not the same thing as a hatred of the concept of government. When you focus on institutions people rely on and the workaday functions of governance, the citizens actually like government. They like the teachers. They like firefighters. (Too many) like police. They even like their local politicians.

[tantric superman 4668]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The mass media is nothing more than the mouthpiece of elite wealth. It is in love with identity-based progressivism (being racially woke, supporting transgender rights, etc...), but their primary purpose is to protect the interests of the people who write their paychecks so class/economic progressivism is their enemy.

Before this financing plan, the elite classes had convinced themselves that they could get Warren to play ball and sacrifice her ideals. Now that she's signalling that's not the case, they are going to turn on her.

This is why we are getting headlines like "BUTTIGIEG SURGING IN POLLS" when he rises 2 points and is still 15 points behind 3rd place.

[GSU&UT 1799]

9 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I'm not remotely focusing on that.  I'm focusing on people's general fear of change and current hatred of the federal government. 

So many of the people who hate the government hate that it doesn't work for them, these are generally minorities and very poor people who likely don't have great health insurance in the first place. I'm very skeptical that the fear mongering about "big government" is going to have a stronger effect than a very accurate portrayal of their current system which has already left them in dire straits.

Edited November 6, 2019 by GSU&UT

[Bruh Man 3160]

30 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Dems need to stop listening to fear mongering republican media pundits, they also need to stop doing the GOP’s work for them by echoing their bullshit.  

Dems have two of the strongest credible advocates leaning directly into Medicare-for-all and they aren’t losing a damn thing in the polls because of it.  The candidates that got cold feet on single payer healthcare have arguably suffered the most because of it.  

These are observations that people choose to ignore.  

Bernie and Liz are great salespeople that can market this idea better than anyone.  They have been successful it their campaigns because they aren’t playing it safe, they are calling out the bullshit head on. 

They have not fallen in the polls but selling it to Dem primary voters is a lot different than having to sell it in a general. Are you not concerned about risk-aversive independents being turned off by it particularly with the fear campaign R's will develop around it. There's a reason R's do not want Biden. 

[tantric superman 4668]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Hatred of the people currently in power is not the same thing as a hatred of the concept of government. When you focus on institutions people rely on and the workaday functions of governance, the citizens actually like government. They like the teachers. They like firefighters. (Too many) like police. They even like their local politicians.

The keyword here is "local".  I admit I do like my teachers and firefighters and local police and my state reps.  I think the federal government can do lots of things really well.  But most people don't believe that.   When some at the health care requires incremental change, I think that is what they are talking about.  People like their doctors and the great tools he has and the ability to see them quickly.  They distrust institutions that might make it harder for them to get that care.

People need to push the idea of health care as a right but they also need to provide assurances that the US will remain the prime provider of accessible medical care, and remain at the forefront of technological medical innovation. 

[tantric superman 4668]

5 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

So many of the people who hate the government hate that it doesn't work for them, these are generally minorities and very poor people who likely don't have great health insurance in the first place.

And all the others who hate the government are wealthy people who profit with that stance.  

It's a conundrum. 

[GSU&UT 1799]

1 minute ago, tantric superman said:

And all the others who hate the government are wealthy people who profit with that stance.  

It's a conundrum. 

The ever increasing growth of wealth inequality is going to make opposing UHC a losing stance, whether in 2020 or in the near future. It's crazy to think you can address systemic issues that are leading to poverty in the US but somehow selling universal healthcare is going to just be too difficult.

Edited November 6, 2019 by GSU&UT

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

32 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Since Warren's M4A plan has gotten the spotlight her polling is down and Biden's is up.

You've got a nice rah rah narrative but it's not based on anything concrete. Your narrative is purely wishful thinking based on your own bias and hopes.

Perhaps you can explain why the money is still on Warren?  Or is that the bias of people who put money on this shit? 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[bad_teammate 13479]

4 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

The keyword here is "local".  I admit I do like my teachers and firefighters and local police and my state reps.  I think the federal government can do lots of things really well.  But most people don't believe that.  

You're wrong.

Only 19% of people have an unfavorable view of Medicare. It's an extremely popular program. Bernie and Liz calling to expand an extremely popular program is fantastic politics.
 

[bad_teammate 13479]

Joe is going to win and I am going to cry actual tears IRL

 

[tantric superman 4668]

15 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

You're wrong.

Only 19% of people have an unfavorable view of Medicare. It's an extremely popular program. Bernie and Liz calling to expand an extremely popular program is fantastic politics.
 

The federal government isn't just medicare.  If the federal government was as beloved as Medicare, we'd be living in an alternate political universe from what we are in today.

[softlynow 1893]

I'd like to see more polling on M4A, both from an accuracy and fullness POV and using the scare language the GOP will use to attack it. From what little I can find, if you simply ask voters about putting everyone on Medicare, it's fairly popular. However, if you ask about putting everyone on medicare and those with insurance losing that, it's underwater by 10-15 points. Taking it further, though, when you poll using a GOP-likely description of the consequences, it of course polls horribly.

If that is accurate, it will be a mistake to run in the general on Bernie or Warren's plan. It probably means it's a mistake to nominate either one. It's a shame there isn't a progressive who 1. avoided putting this kind of target on him/her and 2. didn't have another serious liability.

[BradInATX 9208]

42 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Perhaps you can explain why the money is still on Warren?  Or is that the bias of people who put money on this shit? 

 

Because she's the only candidate that doesn't have any major flaws amongst the remaining field and she's likable and smart.

We've been through this a million times. Full single-payer is a losing concept amongst the electorate. You can talk in sound bites of "we just have to make people believe" but the problem is that by and large it's an unpopular proposition. A public option is not. Going for full single-payer right now, which is never going to happen in the next five years anyway, fully knowing that it increases the chances of Trump being re-elected, is irresponsible, short-sighted and childish.  The stakes are too high in this next election for over-reaching because you just really really want it.

Edited November 6, 2019 by BradInATX

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[tantric superman 4668]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Because she's the only candidate that doesn't have any major flaws amongst the remaining field and she's likable and smart.

Warren's got many strong points, but I don't think she's that likeable.  Perfectly acceptable, but especially early in the campaign, I've had to get over what I think is a pretty grating style.   

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Warren's got many strong points, but I don't think she's that likeable.  Perfectly acceptable, but especially early in the campaign, I've had to get over what I think is a pretty grating style.   

Perhaps. But she's the "least offensive to the most people" candidate right now, which is what seemed to help her surge in the polls. Now she's got to separate herself and sustain the momentum.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

12 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Lots of good stuff in this poll.  Oh yeah, Warren is the most likable/favorable/net favorable both among democrats and general election polling. 

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_110619.pdf/

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Shoutout to Bernie and his current bump in the polls. 

[bad_teammate 13479]

1 hour ago, tantric superman said:

The federal government isn't just medicare.

Yes, so why are you trying to argue that M4A individually is bad politics by saying the federal government as a whole is unpopular?

The question is, do American's trust the federal government to do a better job with providing insurance for their healthcare needs than they trust insurance companies? 

People already like Medicare and like it more than they like private insurers. So the answer is "yes, obviously".

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

52 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Shoutout to Bernie and his current bump in the polls. 

 

Really important to look at the full trend line in these high quality polls now that they exist.  Bernie got a bump but it’s exactly where he was two and six months ago, in the same poll.  Bernie’s support is strong and solid.  He’s in good position but it really feels like he’s locked in at around 20%.  

While Warren is down 5 from last month she’s actually up 3 from two months ago and up 17 over six months. 

Biden is up 4 from two months ago, down 4 from six months ago, and down 10 from five months ago.  He’s still in a good position but the trend line doesn’t bode well for the next three months. 

Pete is at his all time high at 9% which is up 1 point from six months ago.  I still don’t know what to make of Pete. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Just showing Bernie some love, Hugo. Not reading more into it than that. 

 

[tantric superman 4668]

38 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The question is, do American's trust the federal government to do a better job with providing insurance for their healthcare needs than they trust insurance companies? 

People already like Medicare and like it more than they like private insurers. So the answer is "yes, obviously".

M'kay.  Warner plan is a lock for the Dems to win in 2020.  Only question is whether Trump co-opts it by the end of the year.

[tantric superman 4668]

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Really important to look at the full trend line in these high quality polls now that they exist.  Bernie got a bump but it’s exactly where he was two and six months ago, in the same poll.  Bernie’s support is strong and solid.  He’s in good position but it really feels like he’s locked in at around 20%.  

While Warren is down 5 from last month she’s actually up 3 from two months ago and up 17 over six months. 

Biden is up 4 from two months ago, down 4 from six months ago, and down 10 from five months ago.  He’s still in a good position but the trend line doesn’t bode well for the next three months. 

Pete is at his all time high at 9% which is up 1 point from six months ago.  I still don’t know what to make of Pete. 

Booker's up 300% from two months ago, so he's not sweating it either.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

4 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Booker's up 300% from two months ago, so he's not sweating it either.

The Beto trend line is pretty much a consistent one point drop every month.  He made the right decision to call it quits. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Fozzz 152]

Given how much cable news olds consume, I would bet a big part of the reason why Bernie struggles with boomers is the continually negative coverage he receives on MSNBC and CNN.  For instance, MSNBC viewers are less likely to support Bernie than FNC viewers and FNC, on balance, probably provides fairer coverage to Bernie.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-viewers-more-likely-to-support-bernie-sanders-than-msnbcs-2019-5

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Fozzz