2020 Democratic Nominee

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-trump-faces-tough-election-fight-georgia/gqTRms8eLIL1TEFW2r8pKN/

Tldr:

Biden 51-43 over Trump
Sanders 48-43
Warren 47-44
Pete 46-43
Harris 45-44

And this is a poll that has Trump at 45/54 in approval but Kemp at 55/35 approval.  

Hey look, more obvious polling that Trump is STRUGGLING to get support over his approval rating.  Almost like it's a trend. 

Because of premature factors like name recognition playing the most influential role, the value of this polling isn’t that one democrat performs better than another. 

It’s that Trump currently gets identical support regardless of the Democratic nominee.  He can’t shake 43-44%.  Not good. 

[Js1 85,115]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Because of premature factors like name recognition playing the most influential role, the value of this polling isn’t that one democrat performs better than another. 

It’s that Trump currently gets identical support regardless of the Democratic nominee.  He can’t shake 43-44%.  Not good. 

Which we see in polling across many states and nationally.  

[GSU&UT 1,798]

22 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/ajc-poll-hillary-clinton-has-slim-lead-over-donald-trump-georgia/eNbidHSeh1xo3D99QBzJMO/

 

I wouldn't count on Georgia flipping (I doubt we'll get a Dem in Perdue or Isakson's seats which really matters), but 2016 was the closest Georgia went to going D since 1992 before the Dixiecrats really finished jumping ship.

 

Also, the Nate I really prefer properly points out that this AJC poll very much over-sampled college educated voters.

 

Edited November 13, 2019 by GSU&UT

[DigglerontheHoof 21,066]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Which we see in polling across many states and nationally.  

Only 5 or 6 of those states matter, unfortunately. 

[Js1 85,115]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

I wouldn't count on Georgia flipping (I doubt we'll get a Dem in Perdue or Isakson's seats which really matters), but 2016 was the closest Georgia went to going D since 1992 before the Dixiecrats really finished jumping ship.

I don't think anyone is counting on it - if Georgia going blue is your plan A or B, you've already lost.  If Georgia flips, Democrats romped in the EC. 

But it will get there around the same time, I think, as North Carolina and Texas.  It's growing so fast (I think its the 12th in that regard) and ATL and surrounding burbs has the 4th fastest growing population for US cities. 

[Js1 85,115]

4 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Only 5 or 6 of those states matter, unfortunately. 

This is true.

Michigan, his overall average is 43.5
Pennsylvania - 44.6
North Carolina - 46.3
Florida - 46.4
Wisky - 43.5
Arizona - 47.1
 

(this is taking the average of the averages against Biden, Warren, Sanders and Pete) 

[GSU&UT 1,798]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think anyone is counting on it - if Georgia going blue is your plan A or B, you've already lost.  If Georgia flips, Democrats romped in the EC. 

But it will get there around the same time, I think, as North Carolina and Texas.  It's growing so fast (I think its the 12th in that regard) and ATL and surrounding burbs has the 4th fastest growing population for US cities. 

I wouldn't be shocked at NC going back to Blue and it taking another cycle or two before Georgia and Texas change, it's a different state.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

 

[Hank Scorpio 17,723]

11 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

Pete: "If you like your plan, you can keep it!"

Me, an adult who just awoke, fully-formed, from a pod with no memory or reason: "SOUNDS GREAT!"

Pete: I’m going to give Americans the FREEDOM to keep their insurance plans and not impose the TYRANNY of free health care for all. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

free health care

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

It irks me no one talks about our free roads, free military, free libraries, and free prisons. 

I wish I had more of a choice on these services.

Said no one, ever. 

Edited November 13, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[BradInATX 9,208]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It irks me no one talks about our free roads, free military, free libraries, and free prisons. 

I wish I had more of a choice on these services.

Said no one, ever. 

Are there millions of people whose employers provide them roads, libraries, and prisons that those people don't want to be forced off of?

Don't be an idiot.

[bad_teammate 13,132]

Is there any politician anywhere that wants to guarantee employees' rights to stay on their current health insurance plan?

I know there are two that want to give everyone a plan that cannot be taken away. But is there anyone who wants to force employers to maintain existing plans for as long as the employees want them?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Are there millions of people whose employers provide them roads, libraries, and prisons that those people don't want to be forced off of?

Don't be an idiot.

Employers don’t provide healthcare and if they did, single payer healthcare wouldn’t stop them from providing it.

[BradInATX 9,208]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Employers don’t provide healthcare and if they did, single payer healthcare wouldn’t stop them from providing it.

Yes Hugo. You're right. Employers don't provide healthcare because they outsource it to a third party (the insurance companies).

By your exact same logic, your employer doesn't provide you with paychecks because they outsource payroll to ADP.

Again, don't be an idiot.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

58 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yes Hugo. You're right. Employers don't provide healthcare because they outsource it to a third party (the insurance companies).

By your exact same logic, your employer doesn't provide you with paychecks because they outsource payroll to ADP.

Again, don't be an idiot.

Employers provide access to less expensive healthcare that is unaffordable otherwise.   

The analogy would be people only getting to use the library, schools, and roads if they are employed by a company that financially supports those service industries or they are financially well off enough to pay for those expensive services independently.

Everyone else gets left behind in society. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Employers provide access to less expensive healthcare that is unaffordable otherwise.   

They don't "provide access" to it. They pay for over 80% of it, on average.

[Js1 85,115]

 

[Pasken 1,309]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

AWESOME says nobody.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

They don't "provide access" to it. They pay for over 80% of it, on average.

And they would continue to pay for it under Warren’s payment plan. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

And they would continue to pay for it under Warren’s payment plan. 

While eliminating a person's choice to keep their current plan, which was my entire point.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

Just now, BradInATX said:

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

And they would continue to pay for it under Warren’s payment plan. 

While eliminating a person's choice to keep their current plan, which was my entire point.

Employees don’t have much say in their employer’s healthcare plan.  Employers can switch providers, change plans, put more cost burden on employees, and drop health insurance altogether if they are under 50 employees. 

The illusion that employees have choices in healthcare coverage is a farce. 

[Incredulity 11,555]

11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Employees don’t have much say in their employer’s healthcare plan.  Employers can switch providers, change plans, put more cost burden on employees, and drop health insurance altogether if they are under 50 employees. 

The illusion that employees have choices in healthcare coverage is a farce. 

They can always go to the O’care exchange.

[Hank Scorpio 17,723]

National Boss’s Day should replace Veterans Day as a holiday. I get a little choked up just thinking about how much I love my employer. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

They can always go to the O’care exchange.

Oh yeah, over priced plans that don’t cover shit. 

[David Dennison 18,661]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

They can always go to the O’care exchange.

Will their employer replace that health insurance expense with pay?

[Incredulity 11,555]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Oh yeah, over priced plans that don’t cover shit. 

Plans with coverages required by O’care.

A law that includes taxes on coverage that is “too good”. 

Make up your fucking mind.

[Incredulity 11,555]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Will their employer replace that health insurance expense with pay?

Who fucking knows.  Whats your point?

[Bozo_Casanova 26,287]

AWESOME says nobody.

I am totally saying Boo-urns

[BradInATX 9,208]

Employees don’t have much say in their employer’s healthcare plan.  Employers can switch providers, change plans, put more cost burden on employees, and drop health insurance altogether if they are under 50 employees. 
The illusion that employees have choices in healthcare coverage is a farce. 

Right. Which, again, was my original point. You bemoan the lack of coverage options today and propose to solve it by reducing healthcare options even further, to a single option. That's a faulty argument.

[Js1 85,115]

26 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

It’s hilarious that Deval Patrick thinks he is some kind of big shot that could shake up the race.    Or is there some mega donor that is dumb enough to be orchestrating this, and Patrick is just taking the opportunity to make some quick cash even though he knows he doesn’t have a prayer of winning?

Deval Patrick:  What this primary needs is a center-left candidate who appeals to blacks by being black, has executive experience and ties to the business community.

Cory Booker:

Edited November 13, 2019 by Js1

[BradInATX 9,208]

Will their employer replace that health insurance expense with pay?

That's a great question. Will they when the majority of healthcare burden is taken off their plate and shifted to taxpayers in M4A?
The answer in both situations is no, of course.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

Just now, BradInATX said:

51 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Employees don’t have much say in their employer’s healthcare plan.  Employers can switch providers, change plans, put more cost burden on employees, and drop health insurance altogether if they are under 50 employees. 
The illusion that employees have choices in healthcare coverage is a farce. 

Right. Which, again, was my original point. You bemoan the lack of coverage options today and propose to solve it by reducing healthcare options even further, to a single option. That's a faulty argument.

Are people now on Medicare looking for better options?  Because you know, they have options.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Are people now on Medicare looking for better options?  Because you know, they have options.

Do you legitimately believe that Medicare as it exists today will look anything remotely similar to M4A?

You continue to chase bad arguments with more bad arguments. Quit while you're behind. M4A = fewer healthcare options for people than they have today. Just drop the argument that it solves a "lack of choice". It is, quite literally by definition a solution that removes ALL choice.

 

[bad_teammate 13,132]

Built into Bernie's plan is forcing companies to negotiate with organized labor to make sure that savings go into wages. Brad knows this already, but alas.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Just drop the argument that it solves a "lack of choice". It is, quite literally by definition a solution that removes ALL choice.

You’re assuming under a single payer system the private sector wouldn’t be allowed to provide a service if the market demanded it.  That’s a false premise.  

[BradInATX 9,208]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You’re assuming under a single payer system the private sector wouldn’t be allowed to provide a service if the market demanded it.  That’s a false premise.  

What? The proposed M4A plans explicitly ban any private coverage that duplicates anything that M4A covers. That's one of the cornerstones of the entire concept.

Edited November 13, 2019 by BradInATX

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

7 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What? The proposed M4A plans explicitly ban any private coverage that duplicates anything that M4A covers. That's one of the cornerstones of the entire concept.

That doesn’t dispute my statement. 

[bad_teammate 13,132]

Cadillac nose job and penis enlargement plans from Exxon and Apple. Hell yeah.

[BradInATX 9,208]

8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That doesn’t dispute my statement. 

Then your statement is meaningless. Why don't you try to make some sort of coherent point? Maybe I can help. Are you trying to make the supplemental insurance argument? If so, once again, it does nothing to address my initial point. Which, again, was that when you make the argument that M4A somehow solves a lack of healthcare options by removing all options, it's a bad argument.

Edited November 13, 2019 by BradInATX

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

Warren slipping among Hispanics...

The supporter age gap between Bernie and Biden continues to amaze me.  Only 19% of likely primary voters under 30 are even considering Joe Biden, Bernie scores a 57% in this group.

Conversely, among over 65, Bernie scores a 21%.  Biden 67%.

The olds need to die. 

Nearly half (47%) of democrats under the age of 30 would be disappointed if Joe Biden was the nominee.  This is an insane number no other candidate comes within 10 points among this demographic.

Edited November 13, 2019 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

Also, if you think Pete has a black voter support problem, you should see Amy Klobuchar’s numbers. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

Second choice is always fun to look at.

Liz and Bernie at the top.  Always good to see.

Pretty much anyone that has Yang or Tulsi as their second choice is under the age of 30. 

[Hank Kingsley 20,712]

Castro sent fundraising emails over the last couple of days saying he needed $ to make the November debate. Problem is, he hasn't qualified in a single poll. Horseshit move. 

 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

And Castro started calling Texas officials who had endorsed Beto within an hour of his withdrawal announcement asking for them to now endorse him.

None did.

He then told the press he called Beto the next day to wish him well.

Beto let his ass go to voicemail.

I’m still disappointed in how Beto’s campaign ended but I’m so glad he didn’t pull a Castro or a Booker with threats of “GIVE ME MORE MONEY NOW OR I’M QUITTING! AND THIS TIME I MEAN BUSINESS!”

Do the right thing, Julian. Stop letting your ego get in the way and do what’s right and run against Cornyn. /s

[Zavala 1,384]

Guess he's out

[Incredulity 11,555]

19 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Pete: I’m going to give Americans the FREEDOM to keep their insurance plans and not impose the TYRANNY of free health care for all. 

It won’t be anything close to “free”.

52 Trillion my man. 52 Trillion.

[bad_teammate 13,132]

Me, an idiot talking to a kid: "You should go the library and borrow some books for free."

Smart conservatives, parachuting in: "WELL, ACTUALLY!"

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,360]

Love driving to work on my not free roads. 

[bad_teammate 13,132]

I am flying to New York to yell at the Statue of Liberty about how breathing isn't ACTUALLY free, because maintenance of breathable air requires the regulation of industry which is ACTUALLY a cost.