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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,221

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

definitely could be, as she could slot in with just about anybody and make sense.

word out here is that she saw the possibility of an embarrassing super tuesday and wanted to avoid that.

per cnn just now, if she stayed in for another 3 weeks, the deadline would've passed and her name would be on the california primary ballot.

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21,076

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Posted

My wife really likes Kamala.  We had several quasi frustrating conversations where she was making the point that she could build the Obama coalition, she's the right mix of whatever to get a lot of support, etc, and me saying "yeah but she isn't" and "if she was going to do that it would be happening right now", and "I agree in theory however it doesn't seem likely to occur" and then eventually just head nods and "yeah maybe".  Going to ignore the urge to say "see?".

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22,978

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3 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

My wife really likes Kamala.  We had several quasi frustrating conversations where she was making the point that she could build the Obama coalition, she's the right mix of whatever to get a lot of support, etc, and me saying "yeah but she isn't" and "if she was going to do that it would be happening right now", and "I agree in theory however it doesn't seem likely to occur" and then eventually just head nods and "yeah maybe".  Going to ignore the urge to say "see?".

That was the baffling part.  On paper, she seemed built for the nomination.  But she just was never able to gain traction.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12,572

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Posted

She’s the all business lady at the beginning of every 90’s / 2000’s movie before she meets the guy who teachers her how to 1.) Relax and have fun 2.) Smell the roses 3.) Become less harsh 4.) Unlock her full potential.

Nobody wants 1st act business lady as president.

 

Now give her a whirlwind romance with our Minister of Culture and we’ll talk.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26,801

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12 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Top 3 for the VP

she could be death blow by bringing in  suburban females

This. I think she knew she needed a bit more national recognition and running gave this to her. Now everyone knows who she is, but she did not do a great job in maintaining a resonating message the DNC establishment would get behind. Too bad. 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78,470

Posted
Posted (edited)

Per my interactions with Trumpkins, they believe that the Cheeto won handily in 2016 and will win big in 2020.

trump can’t afford to lose one vote, especially in the burbs. They seem to forget that the orange jack ass lost the popular vote. The dems are going to gain in urban areas so the Lying idiot better find votes in the suburbs (which He won’t) 
 

he won’t have a choice but to dump pence for Haley, if he even makes it to Election Day 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12,572

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Posted
6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Per my interactions with Trumpkins, they believe that the Cheeto won handily in 2016 and will win big in 2020.

trump can’t afford to lose one vote, especially in the burbs. They seem to forget that the orange jack ass lost the popular vote. The dems are going to gain in urban areas so the Lying idiot better find votes in the suburbs (which He won’t) 
 

he won’t have a choice but to dump pence for Haley, if he even makes it to Election Day 

 

Trump doesn’t care a bout anything other than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

 

Everything else is mute... (well maybe not Arizona).

 

Mark my words, He wins PA again. WI, MI, and AZ flip.

We have a 269-269 tie and it goes to the house. Nancy get to deliver the death blow.

It’s the only way the simulation can end because it’s the most epic.

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,479

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Posted

People get paid money to be pundits. It's astonishing.

Why be mad at no-hopers (Gabbard, et al) who haven't quit?

Harris absolutely would have gotten more delegates than Gabbard or Yang or Bloomberg or Steyer or a dozen others. She didn't drop out because those people passed her, but because she doesn't want to keep fighting for the win now that the odds are stacked against her.

She got behind by 30 points in the 3rd quarter and forfeited the rest of the game. That's fine, but it's not the fault of those who are 50 points behind but choose to stay in.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,479

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And I said this during the debates, but I need to say it again...

STOP FIGHTING WITH TULSI GABBARD

She's a weird cult lady and you cannot win a fight with her. Let her campaign die, as it will assuredly die. You're not going to own her. You're not going to dunk on her. Just hope she doesn't splash her crazy your direction and try to change the subject as fast as possible if she does splash crazy your way.

Mayor Pete got visibly angry at the last debate, and that's blood in the water.

The petty part of me wants Gabbard to troll him and for him to throw a hissy fit in response so he can crash against Tulsi's rocks (hey-o), but if I was on his team I'd be constantly saying, "Pretend she's not there."

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11,401

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Posted
45 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

She’s the all business lady at the beginning of every 90’s / 2000’s movie before she meets the guy who teachers her how to 1.) Relax and have fun 2.) Smell the roses 3.) Become less harsh 4.) Unlock her full potential.

Nobody wants 1st act business lady as president.

 

Now give her a whirlwind romance with our Minister of Culture and we’ll talk.

this is so spot on. even women hate those women. they especially hate those women.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,479

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A black woman has to be an elite politician and coalition-builder, it's true. Kamala's hill to climb was much steeper and higher than, say, Pete's.

So that's big, and it's why she's the first really-highly-polling black female presidential candidate in history. She was fighting a TON of headwinds. Not impossible, but extremely difficult.

Sucks, but it's not like she was pushing something vital and important that wasn't covered better by opponents.

So, whatever.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46,061

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Mark my words, He wins PA again. WI, MI, and AZ flip.

We have a 269-269 tie and it goes to the house. Nancy get to deliver the death blow.

It’s the only way the simulation can end because it’s the most epic.

This makes as much sense as anything else I've heard.

giphy.gif

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28,596

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Posted
She’s the all business lady at the beginning of every 90’s / 2000’s movie before she meets the guy who teachers her how to 1.) Relax and have fun 2.) Smell the roses 3.) Become less harsh 4.) Unlock her full potential.
Nobody wants 1st act business lady as president.
 
Now give her a whirlwind romance with our Minister of Culture and we’ll talk.


GTFO with this sexist garbage claptrap. God.
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Pasken

Pasken 1,310

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Still pretty shocked at how quickly she went from a legitimate front-runner to afterthought.  Wonder if this is a VP play.

It would be nice to find a candidate from a swing state like a Tim Caine in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2008. It would also be nice to not pull out a sitting senator but that Cali seat should be pretty safe.

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21,598

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Posted

 

This Silver take right after Kamala announced dropping out is stupid. She was in 2nd place and polling at 18% in Iowa in early July.  In mid-July she was 2nd and polling at 17.5% in New Hampshire. I guess it's not a hot enough take to drive Twitter engagements, but the reality is Kamala just ran a bad campaign. 

 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13,050

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Posted
2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

And I said this during the debates, but I need to say it again...

STOP FIGHTING WITH TULSI GABBARD

She's a weird cult lady and you cannot win a fight with her. Let her campaign die, as it will assuredly die. You're not going to own her. You're not going to dunk on her. Just hope she doesn't splash her crazy your direction and try to change the subject as fast as possible if she does splash crazy your way.

Mayor Pete got visibly angry at the last debate, and that's blood in the water.

The petty part of me wants Gabbard to troll him and for him to throw a hissy fit in response so he can crash against Tulsi's rocks (hey-o), but if I was on his team I'd be constantly saying, "Pretend she's not there."

Have you seen this take on Gabbard? It is from the people I visit to read transcripts from Trump's speeches.

They analyzed her social media and concluded that something is going on, but they can't figure out the cause exactly. They are in the analytics business, and it makes for an interesting read. Here is the link followed by some excerpts:

https://blog.factba.se/

 

Quote

 

Tulsi Gabbard’s Social Media Stats ≠ Sense

Tulsi Gabbard’s social media reach exploded in October. That growth doesn’t correlate with her polling.

...

...we were re-pulling some numbers on Twitter on all the 2020 Democratic candidates, and noticed Margaret, our AI, had flagged a “Hey Human” alert on Tulsi Gabbard’s data.

To which we said: “Tulsi Gabbard?”

She’d flagged a spike in Twitter followers. Between October 1st and October 25th, her twitter following spiked 23.9%, more than double any other candidate in the same time period. And not a small number of followers… 134,817 of them, to be exact. In terms of raw numbers, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden had a bit more, but their accounts were, as of October 1st, all at least 5x larger than her account:

  • Tulsi Gabbard: 580,137 → 714,954 (+23.9%, up 134,817 followers)
  • Joe Biden: 3,757,210 → 3,908,764 (+4.03%, up 151,554 followers)
  • Elizabeth Warren: 3,235,232 → 3,414,734 (+5.55%, up 179,502 followers)
  • Bernie Sanders: 9,714,332 → 9,864,718 (+1.55%, up 150,386 followers)

For comparison, Donald Trump’s account went from 65,040,038 to 66,155,421 in the same time period, a much bigger number, but a 1.71% increase.

The initial size of her YouTube audience, even before the spike, doesn’t gel with her online presence, footprints, or anything else. It’s an account with views and subscriber counts appropriate for a front runner, or someone very specifically engaged with social media, like Yang.

 

 

Quote

 

Wasn’t there a debate in October?

Only on days ending in “y”. Seriously, October was a debate month. We went to SocialBlade, our favorite quick check on social media status, and saw the spike happen right on October 19, 2019. Great! Problem solved… except the debate was on October 15, 2019.

So what happened a couple of days after the debate?

This: The New York Times: Tulsi Gabbard Lashes Back at Hillary Clinton After Claim of Russian Influence

So the Tulsi Gabbard / Hillary Clinton back and forth. That would account for a spike, but would it?

We looked at similar kerfuffles, and there’s no kerfuffle shortage in this primary season. There’s no similar spike accompanying any spat. Other than when a candidate first announced, no one experienced a double-digit spike in growth on one social media platform, much less two social media platforms.

The only candidate who shows any month-over-month growth at all in the double digits is Andrew Yang, and it’s consistent. Every month since March (when we started tracking data for him, he’s grown followers and subscribers at 9% or more every month. So while he’s an outlier in terms of support vs. social media, it’s consistent, and also dovetails with his general online presence.

You Missed the Obvious. Polls and money.

So we ruled out the kerfuffle and went old school. Polls and money.

 

 

Quote

 

There’s nothing that politicians love more than polls and money. We’d surely find some correlation there.

We hit The New York Times calculated tracking poll, which averages all the polls in a number, and expected to find a similar spike. It’s very useful as a snapshot. And we found the answer.

No, just kidding. Zero correlation.

 

It goes on with the analysis, also looking at fundraising, bots, etc.

 

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Js1

Js1 86,943

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

A black woman has to be an elite politician and coalition-builder, it's true. Kamala's hill to climb was much steeper and higher than, say, Pete's.

So that's big, and it's why she's the first really-highly-polling black female presidential candidate in history. She was fighting a TON of headwinds. Not impossible, but extremely difficult.

Sucks, but it's not like she was pushing something vital and important that wasn't covered better by opponents.

So, whatever.

It’s true. The headwinds were ridiculous. She got massive negative headlines compared to someone like Pete. Black women have to work twice as hard to get half the credit. 

People are more likely to give a white make 37 year old nobody mayor a shot than a black woman. I do hope it sets the stage for someone in the future to say they can run too.  But the first female president was NOT going to be a black woman. 

Shame. But she is a legit VP or AG candidate for whoever wins. 

But JFC, we still cannot get rid of Steyer or Bloomberg 

Edited by Js1
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Js1

Js1 86,943

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Posted
2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I thought she would be a stronger candidate, but, primaries are weird.

I can also confirm I had heard rumors she was getting out now to avoid being on the ballot on Super Tuesday, under performing, and possibly drawing a primary challenge to her Senate seat.

Lololol 

The “progressives” couldn’t even oust old ass DiFi who pisses them off more than anyone in Cali.  I doubt anyone would knock off Harris in a jungle primary. 

Give her credit. She isn’t running a vanity campaign unlike the billionaires. She saw the path closed and bowed out. 

Respect. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,479

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Precisely how many American presidents were over the age of 70 when elected?

Well for most of America's existence being 70 and functional wasn't really an option. But we've been ruled by old white people for roughly 98% of our history.

48 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Have you seen this take on Gabbard? It is from the people I visit to read transcripts from Trump's speeches.

They analyzed her social media and concluded that something is going on, but they can't figure out the cause exactly. They are in the analytics business, and it makes for an interesting read. Here is the link followed by some excerpts:

The whole "Tulsi Russia Trump" thing is poop not worth touching. It's got the cat germs in it that give you brain disease. There's nothing useful there, it's just a swamp to get lost in.

Don't touch the poop.

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