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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

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Posted
Everyone who has been laid off by a middle manager or consultant has met Pete Buttigieg.


Dude, I worked for Big Pharma for 15 years.

I’ve met hundreds of Mayo Petes.

And I really liked Pete when he entered the race - I’m sure the first few pages of this thread and the Pete thread can prove it.

But when he spewed that “shiny object” bullshittery about guns, I was absolutely finished with him.

Yeah, Beto was my guy and that was aimed at him so I’m sure that played into my feelings but lots of other candidates took shots a him and nothing offended me like that.

It was such a crass dismissive snarky remark about a literal life and death issue and it told me everything I need to know about what kind of person Pete is.

Same with his “pocket change” nonsense.

He’s Tracy Flick in a clean cut white dude’s body.
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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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Posted (edited)

Volcker is a personal hero of Warren's.  Someone might want to ask her why she feels his life is worth celebrating.

Quote

At the same time as Volcker was destroying unions, small banks, small farms, and small businesses, he was structuring the Too Big to Fail model of finance. In 1980, Nelson and Bunker Hunt, two oil billionaire heirs, tried to corner the silver market in league with Arab interests. Volcker organized a bailout. By 1980, Wall Street had gotten the message. Economist Albert Wojnilower explained, “It is now everywhere taken for granted that no monetary authority will allow any key financial actor to fail."

In the middle of the 1980s, Volcker’s strategy looked like a success. Inflation was gone, the economy was growing, technology seemed to be restructuring society, and the workforce had largely been de-unionized. But there was a something of a mirage, as a bubble in financial leverage through savings and loan banks and junk bonds emerged. Volcker tried to crack down on this bubble, to block the use of junk bonds for certain kinds of seedy transactions. He knew a scumbag when he saw one, and the junk bond peddlers and M&A artists were scum. But by then, his allies against financial corruption, notably the small banks, small business, and unions, were dead or dying. So it was Paul Volcker and all his vaunted respect, versus an army on Wall Street.

There was no contest. The predatory bankers won, as they did again in 2009.

Towards the end of his life, Volcker railed against the corruption he saw everywhere. But he never connected the dots between his own actions destroying public institutions and the inability to constrain the financial corruption he despised. Many people in finance have fond memories of an incorruptible Paul Volcker standing up against financial corruption and reigning in inflation. Which is true. But Volcker really wasn't on the side of democracy, and that's why he oversaw nothing but decline.

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/on-the-tragedy-of-paul-volcker?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta

Also, Volcker is an apt illustration of why Liz's "capitalism, but with rules!" mantra doesn't make any sense.  

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Weird flex.  Maybe she just like the guy and disagreed on policy.  People are allowed to do that. 

I don't think they had a close, intimate relationship, and her recent comments praised his work at the fed.  So, no, I don't think that's what this is about.  Indeed, I find Liz's philosophy similar to Volcker's in a lot of ways.    

 

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

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6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The guy died.  She was way out of line not to piss all over his grave. 

She could have said nothing at all.  Has Bernie said anything?  This is a hint regarding what she really believes about how this society should work (she believes it is sound but there are bad actors who need constraining via more assiduous rulemaking) and thus how she would conduct her administration if elected.  The fact that she doesn't see the vast amount of harm Volcker caused both here and in the global south tells you a lot about the people she doesn't care about.  

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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23 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Klobbmentum: RISING

I forgot that these state Emerson polls aren't very good because they way over-sample educated voters, which, if true, explains why Klobuchar is way the hell up as her based is super educated.

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/democratic-presidential-candidates/polls/

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23362

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5 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I forgot that these state Emerson polls aren't very good because they way over-sample educated voters, which, if true, explains why Klobuchar is way the hell up as her based is super educated.

Seems Klobuchar has been set up well to have her big media moment once Pete fever dies down.  Klobuchar would likely be a better president than Pete/Biden/Steyer/Bloomberg but she’s not a great candidate in this race.  Kamala Harris was 10x better. 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Seems Klobuchar has been set up well to have her big media moment once Pete fever dies down.  Klobuchar would likely be a better president than Pete/Biden/Steyer/Bloomberg but she’s not a great candidate in this race.  Kamala Harris was 10x better. 

Maybe, but Klobuchar's sole message is "we can't pay for big things" and some Ron Paul garbage "we'll give you a tax credit to help you with your loans." I'm skeptical she's going to get 15% in any state if there's good turnout.

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Js1

Js1 85133

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After Pete falters, she’s next to rise and fall. And Biden just chugs along. It really is like 2012 - Romney slayed each challenger as they peaked but never truly threatened his advantage. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23362

Posted
Posted
Just now, GSU&UT said:

Maybe, but Klobuchar's sole message is "we can't pay for big things" and some Ron Paul garbage "we'll give you a tax credit to help you with your loans." I'm skeptical she's going to get 15% in any state if there's good turnout.

She has no shot and really seems like more of a role player in this thing to center progressives. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23362

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

After Pete falters, she’s next to rise and fall. And Biden just chugs along. It really is like 2012 - Romney slayed each challenger as they peaked but never truly threatened his advantage. 

It’s an odd comparison considering it’s Republican politics and we were a different country in 2012.  However, the “electability” horse shit is what carried Romney in 2012 just like it’s carrying Biden.  Obama had to be defeated at all costs and Romney was the golden moderate to do it.  Mistakes were made.

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workswithseed

workswithseed 2037

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

"As long as we get a candidate that doesn't wake up the poor and working classes to the boot we have on their necks, then things will be peaceful," Democrats and Republicans, holding hands and smiling into each other's eyes

I'm sure the proletariat will rise up one day in America. 

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Js1

Js1 85133

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11 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It’s an odd comparison considering it’s Republican politics and we were a different country in 2012.  However, the “electability” horse shit is what carried Romney in 2012 just like it’s carrying Biden.  Obama had to be defeated at all costs and Romney was the golden moderate to do it.  Mistakes were made.

How is it an odd comparison?  Hugo, stop reaching. 

2012 GOP primary:

  • Romney was the de facto "next in line" because he was 2008 runner up to McCain
  • Romney held a steady lead from February to August
  • In August-ish, Perry surpasses him in the RCP average, reaching a high in September and then dropped like a rock
  • In late September/early October, Herman Cain surpassed Romney, then fell like a rock
  • in late December/early January, Gingrich surpassed Romney and then fell, rebounded and fell again
  • Santorum briefly took a lead on Romney and then fell like a rock

2020 Democratic Primary:

  • Biden was the de facto "next in line" because he passed on 2016 due to Beau's death
  • He had a steady lead from December to October
  • Harris surged in July because of the debate moment against him, then fell like a rock (out of the race)
  • Warren briefly matched him in the RCP average in October and then has since fallen off (she's lost over 10 points since reaching 26.6 in the average)
  • Pete is now on his rise but nowhere close to Biden (this could change if Pete wins Iowa/NH)
  • Bernie would be likely to have the next rise once Pete 
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23362

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

How is it an odd comparison?  Hugo, stop reaching. 

2012 GOP primary:

  • Romney was the de facto "next in line" because he was 2008 runner up to McCain
  • Romney held a steady lead from February to August
  • In August-ish, Perry surpasses him in the RCP average, reaching a high in September and then dropped like a rock
  • In late September/early October, Herman Cain surpassed Romney, then fell like a rock
  • in late December/early January, Gingrich surpassed Romney and then fell, rebounded and fell again
  • Santorum briefly took a lead on Romney and then fell like a rock

2020 Democratic Primary:

  • Biden was the de facto "next in line" because he passed on 2016 due to Beau's death
  • He had a steady lead from December to October
  • Harris surged in July because of the debate moment against him, then fell like a rock (out of the race)
  • Warren briefly matched him in the RCP average in October and then has since fallen off (she's lost over 10 points since reaching 26.6 in the average)
  • Pete is now on his rise but nowhere close to Biden (this could change if Pete wins Iowa/NH)
  • Bernie would be likely to have the next rise once Pete 

Apples and oranges.  There are parallels for sure but your confidence in the predictive power of premature polling data is much higher than mine.  You extrapolate political success from national polling data months ahead from anyone voting anywhere, which is a huge leap of faith in my opinion.  

The chances of this thing going anything like the 2012 GOP primary are extremely slim based on the unpredictability of the dynamics of the current political environment.

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Js1

Js1 85133

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You mean Biden winning the whole thing after some doofus wins Iowa?  

Yeah that's basically what's going to happen.  Harris getting out the race increased Biden's lead with black voters by like, a lot.  That most recent SC poll had him at 51% with her out. 

Y'all kicked out the one person capable of giving him a fight for black voters.  Enjoy voting for Biden in November. 

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406W30th

406W30th 1111

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20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You mean Biden winning the whole thing after some doofus wins Iowa?  

Yeah that's basically what's going to happen.  Harris getting out the race increased Biden's lead with black voters by like, a lot.  That most recent SC poll had him at 51% with her out. 

Y'all kicked out the one person capable of giving him a fight for black voters.  Enjoy voting for Biden in November. 

It's true. We kicked her out.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23362

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14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You mean Biden winning the whole thing after some doofus wins Iowa?  

Yeah that's basically what's going to happen.  Harris getting out the race increased Biden's lead with black voters by like, a lot.  That most recent SC poll had him at 51% with her out. 

Y'all kicked out the one person capable of giving him a fight for black voters.  Enjoy voting for Biden in November. 

I can see why you might think that but this isn’t politics as usual.  You might be right, however I think is a fools errand to make any hard and fast predictions based on polls at this point. 

Lots of external factors are going to play a role in this that aren’t currently being factored into polling data.  Things like how Trump’s impeachment process plays out, what influence Bloomberg has in the race, and if Biden or Bernie don’t stroke out under intense campaign pressure.  

There’s a ton of time left on the clock. 

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