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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
in Cloak Room

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,481

Posted
Posted

Left Twitter had been trying to get everyone to like Corbyn and care about UK politics, but it was always a fool's errand because people didn't like Jeremy Corbyn.

Were his ideas good? Of course
Does he have a history of good politics? Yes
Is he honest and does he have integrity? Yes

Poll after poll after poll for years and years showed him generally unpopular. Even when the Tories were falling apart a year ago, Corbyn was still very unpopular.

Johnson, on the other hand, has a personality that people engage with. He's got bad politics and he's a prick, but he's not an irredeemably terrible human on a personal level (like Trump). He's a joke, but he's in on the joke and people like that.

5d377fa68813a212f670748b?width=1136&form

The second HUGE factor that made Corbyn's win impossible was his compromised Brexit position.

Johnson wants to honor the Brexit vote and leave.

In his heart, Corbyn ALSO wants to leave (but for leftist reasons). But he couldn't say that politically, but he also couldn't say "We're staying!" because that would require a referendum. So he was stuck with this "let's have another referendum and I'll just do whatever you guys want" which isn't leadership even if its calculatingly sensible.

IMO, he should've just said "we are leaving, and here are the terms I am going to push for as we leave."

--

The simple fact that Bernie is Jewish and had no grandparents and lineage growing up because they were murdered by Hitler will shield him from accusations of anti-Semitism somewhat.

There is no strange Brexit issue that is dominating the American voters' minds like Brexit rightly dominated the British voters' minds.

People actually like Bernie; he's generally very popular.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28,596

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Posted

WTF Bennet???

What a bonehead.

I’m open to the discussion of changing the way we structure school calendars - year round, starting the school day later, etc. but what good is it going to do kids and families to make the school week six days?

And then vampiric corporations would try to piggyback off that to push a six day workweek, with no increase in salaries of course.

He’s just vomiting out nonsense to try and get attention at this point.

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 692

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10 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

You know who else finds those words sexist and misogynistic?

Cenk Uygur

"First of all, I wrote that stuff 19 years ago; I deleted it 15 years ago," Uygur told CNN host Chris Cuomo during an on-set interview. "I deleted it not because I thought I'd get caught or someone would find it, I deleted it because I didn't believe it anymore. This is not me. I was trying to be a stupid, politically incorrect Republican. So I wrote these things I knew were offensive."

“The stuff I wrote back then was really insensitive and ignorant,” Uygur said. “If you read that today, what I wrote 18 years ago, and you’re offended by it, you’re 100 percent right. And anyone who is subjected to that material, I apologize to. And I deeply regret having written that stuff when I was a different guy.”

 

O'Reilly, Lauer, and Rose: Rape and sexual assault

Ugyur: Edgy moron blog posts

5y5qi0gwu2ln9h5241gz1.gif

Ana Kasparian is someone who loves to give in to men and apologize for creeps. She's very meek. She doesn't disagree or argue with Cenk at all. Subservient all the way.

 

Cenk is a meathead, but a highly entertaining one. He belongs right where he is: in media, not in public office.

Ana should be the one running for this House seat.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,481

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Posted

This.

My odds are....

Joe: 75%
Bernie: 10%
Liz: 7.5%
Field: 7.5%

Bernie and Liz are going to have to outperform their polling based on ground game.

It's crunch time, fellas. Pick Bernie or Warren and volunteer. Phonebank, canvas, textbank. Send Dominos to volunteers in Iowa, I don't know. Find something to do.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,223

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3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m going to have to caveat that polls mean almost jack shit every time I post polling data.

The only thing polls tell us is the current political weather and are not indicative of future results. 

With that said, polls tell us more about who should probably drop out than who is really winning.

polls are like in-season standings in sports.  they give a snapshot and they're based on actual data collection.  nobody with a brain thinks they're some sort of device for predicting the future.  they do, however, fuel news stories, which can often fuel fundraising efforts, largely based on viability. 

polls are a useful tool if used properly.  saying they mean jack-shit is not accurate, no matter how often you say it.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted

17 out of 20,000 employees?  Political Analyst, George Costanza, says That's like the Andrea Doria of sexual harassment claims.  How many do you lose at a normal company, like 30...40?  

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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Posted
On 12/15/2019 at 9:37 AM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m going to have to caveat that polls mean almost jack shit every time I post polling data.

The only thing polls tell us is the current political weather and are not indicative of future results. 

With that said, polls tell us more about who should probably drop out than who is really winning.

 

 

Those delegate counts are really interesting. If they look anything like that after Super Tuesday, that creates a really tough situation for Bernie. If he dropped out and threw his full support behind Warren, she probably wins it. If he sticks around, he might be clearing the road for Biden to win, especially as he picks up the Pete/Bloomberg/Klobuchar voters when they drop out. 

But all that said, those delegate counts would actually be really encouraging after Super Tuesday, in terms of not ending up with Biden. Regardless of how any of us feel about polls, it's informing to see how the poll numbers translate to delegate counts.

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AngryDragon

AngryDragon 273

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3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

EMGkMbVUYAA2Tpv?format=jpg&name=large

Lol

I know you don't take him seriously as a candidate Hugo but he's going to be around til the very end and his grassroots support is starting to show in polls even if the mainstream media doesn't necessarily cover it. Expect another uptick after tomorrow's debates. Dude has the most fervent base out of all the candidates and it shows in his fundraising. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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12 hours ago, AngryDragon said:

I know you don't take him seriously as a candidate Hugo but he's going to be around til the very end and his grassroots support is starting to show in polls even if the mainstream media doesn't necessarily cover it. Expect another uptick after tomorrow's debates. Dude has the most fervent base out of all the candidates and it shows in his fundraising. 

I like Yang, but his movement is basically Reddit bros that get their political views from South Park. They should just go back from whence they came, because at least as Bernie Bros they can give Biden a run for his money.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,481

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If you want to know where supporters will go, just look at the demographics.

Liz and Pete have the whitest coalitions, so they will be more likely to go to Trump, because white people like Trump.

Joe has super old people, and old people like Trump.

Bernie has young people and non-white people, neither of which  like Trump.

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AngryDragon

AngryDragon 273

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2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I like Yang, but his movement is basically Reddit bros that get their political views from South Park. They should just go back from whence they came, because at least as Bernie Bros they can give Biden a run for his money.

I went to the Yang rally in Dallas. Crowd was way more diverse than I expected. Good mix of all races both female and male (skewing on the younger side for sure) and it was nice to see a ton of Asians in the crowd for a change.

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Js1

Js1 86,950

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, AngryDragon said:

I know you don't take him seriously as a candidate Hugo but he's going to be around til the very end and his grassroots support is starting to show in polls even if the mainstream media doesn't necessarily cover it. Expect another uptick after tomorrow's debates. Dude has the most fervent base out of all the candidates and it shows in his fundraising. 

This could literally be written about any candidate 

Strong grassroots ✅

Media ignores them ✅

Uptick in poll numbers ✅

Yang is behind Michael fucking Bloomberg and tied with Klobs in The Economist average of averages. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,967

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Fozzz said:

lol at Mayor Pete and Liz! supporters.

 

Surprised at this, a little.

The 12% of Buttigieg voters is in line with his Republican-lite/Never-Trumper messaging.

Biden's 9% is consistent with those who just want to go back to the good old days of Bush/Obama. Warren's number may bode well for her in a general election.

And Bernie with only 4% who would vote for Trump over a Biden or Warren - I think that speaks to the affinity they have towards Warren in general as an alternative to Bernie. And perhaps some overconfidence that Bernie would be able to secure the nomination despite the Establishment Democrats saying no way. 

Interesting poll. Thanks. 

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AngryDragon

AngryDragon 273

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16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This could literally be written about any candidate 

Strong grassroots ✅

Media ignores them ✅

Uptick in poll numbers ✅

Yang is behind Michael fucking Bloomberg and tied with Klobs in The Economist average of averages. 

But not the fundraising. He has more small donors than Bernie and has outraised Biden the past quarter and will probably smash thru 20 mil this quarter.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,967

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By percentage, Yang takes in more from small donors, but by the numbers, Bernie leads by a wide margin over Yang with Warren second in the Democratic Party. And if you add in transfers (from small donors as well (the yellow above), that number grows immensely.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race/small-donors?curr=C&show=T

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,223

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2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

By percentage, Yang takes in more from small donors, but by the numbers, Bernie leads by a wide margin over Yang with Warren second in the Democratic Party. And if you add in transfers (from small donors as well (the yellow above), that number grows immensely.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race/small-donors?curr=C&show=T

 

pete is 3rd out of the dems, with about 2.5x what yang has, but i'm pretty sure most of that has been refunded.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,223

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52 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Yeah, if the threshold is $200 total then I’m a “big donor” for Beto.

That marker is nonsense.

is it though?  donating $200 (total) is a pretty big deal.  it's not like you can donate tens of thousands.  i certainly wouldn't tout "a lot of small donors" and include people who donate $200 in that grouping.

also i assume it's calculated using "donations" not "donors".  i'm sure there are a ton of people donating $5-$20 a month for several months, and by the end, they're not a "small donor" but they've accounted for several small donations.

agreed overall that arguing the semantics is silly and pointless.  is yang really gonna top $20mm this quarter?

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