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2020 Democratic Nominee

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Dropout said:

It’s over for Warren. She shot her shot and missed.

Been hearing this for literally a year, when people here were writing her obituary over the DNA test.  Excuse me random message board poster if I’ll wait for actual votes to come in.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I actually think Bernie can win, doesn’t mean he will, but I also SEE Trump tweeting pro-Bernie messages.  

Yes, I do agree that Republicans actually think he'll be the easiest to defeat because he isn't going to shy away from being labeled a "socialist." I think they're being incredibly stupid if Bernie's strategy of getting people who didn't vote in 2016 to come out and especially young voters works. It's a strategy that is a bit of a gamble, but we'll find out very soon in this primary based on voting results if it's working.

Edited by GSU&UT
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

I could see Hugo coming over to the good guys after Warren drops out.  He is not entirely hopeless.  

 

He will. That's what the "Testing" and "Acceptance" phases are. And he's a good dude.

Edited by BradInATX
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

I post about fundraising and groundgame stuff more than polls because I think those two things are wildly underrated compared to polls, but polls are still important.

Obviously it's great that Bernie's poll #s are rising. It's especially good because the fundamentals underlying this rise are extremely strong. Sometimes you'd get a burst based on media attention that wasn't sustainable.

So you're Kamala Harris and you annihilate Joe Biden on the debate stage... great, everyone's eyes are on you, what do you have?

Nothing, so she died.

Then Warren. She had a whole lot more than Harris, but ultimately she started wobbling on healthcare under pressure and that's the #1 issue. Not good to wobble when everyone's eyes are on you. Her bump in the polls lasted months, though, because she has a decent grassroots thing going. Fundraising fell from Q3-Q4, bad fundamentals there. Strong organization, though, so there's hope on the voter turnout end.

Then Pete's recent surge which was even shorter and less pronounced than Harris's, because he's almost completely empty. The more people get to know him the more they dislike him. He actually does have a good grassroots fundraising effort, but it's so overshadowed by the wine cave. What an absolutely stupid thing to do when the media was already telegraphing that this was the issue they were going to focus on. Brain dead optics and political awareness.

Meanwhile, the media steadfastly kept spotlights off of Bernie for months and his polls just chugged along at 2nd or 3rd and his underlying fundamentals grew and grew and grew. So now he's got the media spotlight and the fundamentals to prolong that exposure are very powerful. They kept their powder dry because they were dismissing him and now they're firing and he's just too damned strong.

Biden's got the lazy/unengaged/nostalgic vote, and that's a powerful bloc. If you're someone who isn't paying attention and you see Obama's VP that's an easy choice.

Sanders has the movement progressives. A lower floor but VERY high ceiling group that is volatile.

Warren has the white/monied liberals. A great bloc that is extremely reliable.

The rest are basically in the grifting stage. Pete is angling for some board chairmanships. Tulsi is a freakshow. Steyer is prepping his run for California Senate by siphoning clout from Bernie. Bloomberg is flat-out delusional. Klobuchar is angling for appointments.

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I actually think Bernie can win, doesn’t mean he will, but I also SEE Trump tweeting pro-Bernie messages.  

Yes... keep on thinking... why is he doing it?

He's a troll. I know you guys love to think he's doing 4D chess, but he's not. He's pure ego living moment to moment. Praising Bernie pisses off the people he hates (Clintons, establishment Dems, Hollywood libs) and riles up his base against the swamp.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
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22 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Yes... keep on thinking... why is he doing it?

He's a troll. I know you guys love to think he's doing 4D chess, but he's not. He's pure ego living moment to moment. Praising Bernie pisses off the people he hates (Clintons, establishment Dems, Hollywood libs) and riles up his base against the swamp.

Everything Trump does and says is with his political survival in mind first and it’s idiotic to think otherwise.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted

At this point Biden is still the favorite (although not nearly as much as he was a month ago) and if you're Trump the narrative you will be deploying against him is that he's corrupt, and so it makes sense to lean into the narrative that he and the DNC are trying to corruptly steal the election from Bernie.  If Bernie wins the first three primaries and emerges as the clear favorite then I doubt you will hear much support from Trump for Bernie at that point.  

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20680

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Meanwhile, the media steadfastly kept spotlights off of Bernie for months and his polls just chugged along at 2nd or 3rd and his underlying fundamentals grew and grew and grew. So now he's got the media spotlight and the fundamentals to prolong that exposure are very powerful. They kept their powder dry because they were dismissing him and now they're firing and he's just too damned strong.

What's interesting about the current state of our media IMO is that the journalism/print media world is getting younger, and the vast majority seem to support the progressive agenda. 

For all the talk of the media "hating" Bernie, I don't think that's really true right now. Sure, you have D "strategists" and talking heads on TV that go after Bernie hard. But Bernie has a lot of allies. The Intercept is fully on his side, and obviously Jacobin.  Journalists like Dave Weigel (Wash Post), Astead Herndon (NYT), Matt Ygleisas (Vox), and other influential reporters clearly back a Sanders nomination (with Warren as an acceptable alternative).  

So yes, the TV/pundit world kind of left Bernie alone for months as they were dismissing him. But on the journalism side he doesn't have very many influential enemies. 

 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

He got 1 vote from the NYT editorial board. That is the same number of votes as Bloomberg, who didn't even do an interview with them.

Amy Klobuchar, who hasn't polled above 5% in basically anything and whose fundraising numbers are bad and who never attracts crowds and has a non-existent groundgame, got 7.

He got 5 fewer than Booker, who isn't even running.

The media class is not 100% united against him, but what you're listing are either lone wolves in larger shops (WaPo, NYT) or very small outlets (Intercept). Everyone who makes hiring decisions hates Bernie. Everyone who writes the checks hates Bernie. Everyone who makes programming decisions hates Bernie. MSNBC and CNN have entire segment panels made up of nothing but center-right Dems and Clinton veterans who all hate Bernie very openly.

You and I could make a list of the pro-Bernie media figures, and the fact that we could do that so easily is evidence of how rare those people are.

Now, that's going to shift. Knees are going to bend. Most of these people just follow orders and go where the momentum takes them because they aren't here for ideology they're here for careerism. If Bernie stays on fire and takes over the party, the careerist money will be to either oppose him (which takes some kind of motivation) or just go with him. Most of them will just play along.

But for right now, and for the last 4 years, they hate him.

We can regroup in 6 months and see the state of things if he's winning delegates at a higher clip than anyone else.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

Sorry for all the posts in a row, but I wanted to make sure that the Bernie loathers weren't feeling too bad about this, because you guys still have hope.

A CONTESTED CONVENTION!

To avoid a 2nd round of voting (wherein superdelegates would unite against Bernie and backroom shenanigans would lead to Sanders' pledged delegates being convinced to go to someone else) Bernie has to win an outright majority of pledged delegates from the states.

He needs to be at 51% for that.

If he's at 49%, it goes to that second round.

So there's a conceivable situation with...

Round 1:
Bernie - 40%
Biden - 35%
Warren - 18%
Boot-edge-edge - 7%

Round 2:
Biden - 53%
Bernie - 47%

And then we get something a lot of you guys love: DEMS IN DISARRAY!

For unity's sake, whoever goes in with the plurality should be the nominee.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18655

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Sorry for all the posts in a row, but I wanted to make sure that the Bernie loathers weren't feeling too bad about this, because you guys still have hope.

A CONTESTED CONVENTION!

To avoid a 2nd round of voting (wherein superdelegates would unite against Bernie and backroom shenanigans would lead to Sanders' pledged delegates being convinced to go to someone else) Bernie has to win an outright majority of pledged delegates from the states.

He needs to be at 51% for that.

If he's at 49%, it goes to that second round.

So there's a conceivable situation with...

Round 1:
Bernie - 40%
Biden - 35%
Warren - 18%
Boot-edge-edge - 7%

Round 2:
Biden - 53%
Bernie - 47%

And then we get something a lot of you guys love: DEMS IN DISARRAY!

For unity's sake, whoever goes in with the plurality should be the nominee.

The only way Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for president is if he can secure a majority of delegates on the first ballot at the convention.

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GW Hayduke

GW Hayduke 1952

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

*Dem Brain engages*

"This man is a master of logic and political gamesmanship. He isn't just a bully with a dying brain who knows how to make his opponents angry."

 

Why are you bashing democrats in a thread about the 2020 democratic nominee? Shouldn’t you be in another thread?

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

The only way Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for president is if he can secure a majority of delegates on the first ballot at the convention.

As of now, I agree.

Give us Bros 6 months of Bernie winning and us beating the libs into submission on social media? WE SHALL SEE

In the general election, I am going to vote for whoever goes into the convention with a plurality of delegates. That is a reflection of the will of the people, and that's what I will respect. And I will encourage others to do the same.

If that's Liz, I write in Liz.
If that's Joe, I write in Joe.
If that's Bernard, I write in Bernard.

A party that puts a gun to the nation's head because of pathetic internal DC swamp monster squabbles is not a party I trust to fix this nation or even run in effectively and pleas to be loyal to them will fall on deaf ears.

And here's the hopeful part: The libs are already scared of us.

If the party cares about defeating Donald Trump, they will respect the will of the primary voters. I believe that a lot of people within the party are fine with a Trump presidency, as further evidenced by Hillary's latest foray into the election process.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The 15% rule in the primary and caucuses helps, but a contested convention remains a concern and would splinter the party if the candidate with fewer delegates prevails. 

Although I like to hate on Nate, I'm eager to see what he has to say

[edit]

538 has numbers like my dumb brain numbers, which is an indictment of 538 because I'm stupid.

42% chance Biden gets a majority
22% chance Bernie gets a majority
15% chance No one gets a majority (BROKERED!!)
13% chance Liz gets a majority
8% chance Pete gets a majority
0.6% chance Field gets a majority (lol)

6 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Pride cometh before the fall, bad_teammate.   This is as premature as that guy in the basketball board who always claims Shaka Smart a success after the first game of the year when we beat a directional school.

Conditional Sentence Types

Conditional tenses are used to speculate about what could happen, what might have happened, and what we wish would happen. In English, most sentences using the conditional contain the word if.

I even put "if" in bold up above.

I'm not confident Bernie's going to win the primaries. I keep my usual Biden 50%, Bernie 25%, Liz 15%, Field 10% line that I've had for a year.

If Joe wins a plurality I'm voting for Joe.

Edited by bad_teammate
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

It would depend a lot on what Obama does, but basically anything at this point is an obvious anti-Bernie ploy which would work opposite intentions. Hillary just hit Bernie with a nasty and very personal broadside (and he took one and kept climbing earlier from Warren's camp) and it's not having any negative impact. If Barack came out and said, "Bernie called me the n-word in private!" I genuinely believe that we're at a boy-who-cried-wolf point where it wouldn't budge anyone. I wouldn't believe a damned word of it unless there was a tape.

Obama's got a lot of love, but part of how he keeps it is by virtually disappearing and not making anyone face any tough questions. He gets to be a nice memory, and nice memory people turn sour once they're putting their noses in where no one is asking. (And right now, there is no public demand for Obama to put his thumb on the scale.)

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Js1

Js1 85104

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Posted
8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

It would depend a lot on what Obama does, but basically anything at this point is an obvious anti-Bernie ploy which would work opposite intentions. Hillary just hit Bernie with a nasty and very personal broadside (and he took one and kept climbing earlier from Warren's camp) and it's not having any negative impact. If Barack came out and said, "Bernie called me the n-word in private!" I genuinely believe that we're at a boy-who-cried-wolf point where it wouldn't budge anyone. I wouldn't believe a damned word of it unless there was a tape.

Obama's got a lot of love, but part of how he keeps it is by virtually disappearing and not making anyone face any tough questions. He gets to be a nice memory, and nice memory people turn sour once they're putting their noses in where no one is asking. (And right now, there is no public demand for Obama to put his thumb on the scale.)

Hold up broski on the impact of Hillary. Whether it helps or hurts - it’s too early to tell. It takes a week for that shit to show up in polling. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Hold up broski on the impact of Hillary. Whether it helps or hurts - it’s too early to tell. It takes a week for that shit to show up in polling. 

giphy.gif

4 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I seriously doubt Obama says anything, he'd be absolutely helping Trump win again.

And if there's one thing we know Barack Obama has been, it's a warrior against the devastation wrought by Donald Trump.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I seriously doubt Obama says anything, he'd be absolutely helping Trump win again.

 

Agree. His earlier statement was probably made in haste. After seeing the groundswell of support for Sanders, I would hope he sees they share the electorate that is forward thinking and optimistic for a better future. Obama shaped the battlefield; Sanders can move the ideals forward thanks to Obama's legacy. 

Unity.

https://twitter.com/KindAndUnblind/status/1107445601850048512

 

Edited by washparkhorn
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406W30th

406W30th 1111

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m sure the GOP backlash to a Bernie presidency will be mild and nothing to worry about.  I’ve come to terms that I’m just watching the same movie over and over again.  

The GOP is going to do what they always do. Bernie can lean in to their bullshit, whereas the other candidates can't or won't. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

The GOP is going to do what they always do. Bernie can lean in to their bullshit, whereas the other candidates can't or won't. 

Yeah, Bernie hasn’t been effective in this area, it’s his whole attraction, the “I’m mad as hell” routine.  He’s going to need AOC and Liz to do the heavy lifting trying to build bridges and heal if he were to win.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Posted

Wait Hugo now your thing is that Bernie is too far left? This is after you had violent seizures for the past three months any time anyone intimated that Liz Warren wasn't the most progressive progressive to ever progressive?

My man, you need to learn some intellectual consistency.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted (edited)

Bernie’s ideas aren’t far left at all. It’s the perception that he doesn’t mind letting the GOP create about him without the deft way to push back, he DGAF.  AOC handles this criticism better than anyone.  In other words, Bernie doesn’t put much effort into normalizing his positions because his attraction is being a radical asshole.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bernie’s ideas aren’t far left at all. It’s the perception that he doesn’t mind letting the GOP create about him without the deft way to push back, he DGAF.  AOC handles this criticism better than anyone.  In other words, Bernie doesn’t put much effort into normalizing his positions because his attraction is being a radical asshole.

If it is Sanders v. Trump, I have no worries about Trump supporters. Do you? Some are getable. Some are not. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I guess I'm confused on why the Bernie people think everyone hates Bernie.  He's doing very well in the polls.  Is this another "the establishment is out to get him" fever dream?

The people love Bernie. The political and media establishments don't.

How do you think polls work?

15 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bernie’s ideas aren’t far left at all.  ... Bernie doesn’t put much effort into normalizing his positions because his attraction is being a radical asshole.

So he's not far left, but he's got radical, unnormalized positions.

You can't even help from contradicting yourself within the same paragraph.

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