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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted

Wow those Klobuchar numbers.

If she comes in top three in Iowa, things could get interesting.

I feel like a lot of Beto/Kamala/Booker/Castro supporters have just fallen in behind Biden because of various reasons (inertia/inevitably/past bad feelings for other candidates and their supporters).

Lots of those folks don’t like Bernie, Pete, and Warren but didn’t think anyone besides those three and Biden had a shot so they didn’t want to get behind any of the rest because they don’t want to get burned/heartbroken.

If Klobuchar places that high in Iowa you could see some of those folks shift from Biden to her.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

 

 

She does have that hanging like the Sword of Damocles over her campaign (and those working for her).
 

She will fall quickly when anyone takes the run seriously. Right now she is running for a VP slot. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/02/senator-klobuchar-temper-rumors/amp

 

Edited by washparkhorn
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Js1

Js1 85095

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

I feel like a lot of Beto/Kamala/Booker/Castro supporters have just fallen in behind Biden because of various reasons (inertia/inevitably/past bad feelings for other candidates and their supporters).

Lots of those folks don’t like Bernie, Pete, and Warren

Ain’t wrong 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted (edited)

The younger than 50 crowd is there in droves - with Yang in second in the under 30's and Biden way behind in 2nd for the 30-29 year olds. 

Women like Bernie and Warren, but he leads by 5.

And for the Steve King Congressional seat . . . the progressive candidate looks to be a lock for the seat.

All good news (for Bernie)(and Yang).  

 

Edited by washparkhorn
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted

He's pointing out crosstabs, henry, settle down.

I think Bernie is winning Steve King's district because Bernie ALSO hates Jews. There, feel better?

The young people are coming to rallies and volunteering, but will they caucus? This is the key.

If they don't, Bernie does poorly and the shitlibs cheer a development that's actually terrible for the general.

If they do, Bernie does well and the shitlibs will be sad about a development that's actually wonderful for the general.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted

I've not been following this thread as closely of late so SIAP but have you all watched the latest 20 questions round by the NYT? It's a followup of their earlier version with more questions.

Biden and Sanders did not participate, but it was an interesting watch.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/politics/democratic-candidates-20-questions.html

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

Posted
Posted
On 1/26/2020 at 12:12 AM, Bama Chick said:

Interesting how Mayor Pete took any media invite and it was a big part of his campaign strategy to really get in with the media and he has yet to receive even one editorial board endorsement.

Funny that.

Yeah, it kinda blows up the narrative that Pete's a "D establishment media darling" when the reality is he's an outsider pursuing as many TV appearances as possible to get his name out there. 

 

 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

That's not an endorsement ad. He hasn't endorsed Pete. 

Did Rogan endorse Bernie?

APOLOGIZE PETE I DEMAND A STATEMENT CONDEMNING YOUR TOXIC ADVOCATES WHAAAAAAAAH

--

Seriously, though, The Breakfast Club's audience is one all the candidates wanted and approval from Charlamagne is great for Pete. Charlamagne is a serious-minded guy.

If he actually endorses Pete and campaigned for him that would be interesting.

Edited by bad_teammate
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Zombie

Zombie 284

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

He's pointing out crosstabs, henry, settle down.

I think Bernie is winning Steve King's district because Bernie ALSO hates Jews. There, feel better?

The young people are coming to rallies and volunteering, but will they caucus? This is the key.

If they don't, Bernie does poorly and the shitlibs cheer a development that's actually terrible for the general.

If they do, Bernie does well and the shitlibs will be sad about a development that's actually wonderful for the general.

An interesting effect of partisan elections is that passionate followers, whether Biden folks or Bernie folks or others, become so certain that they know how elections will play out. They look at elections through their rosy glasses certain that only their candidate can win this or that election. You don't know. You hope. It's annoying when you act so certain but you really have no better idea than any other politico how our fickle electorate will vote. Maybe Bernie would be great in the general. Maybe he would get destroyed. I would certainly advocate hard on his behalf. But I'm aware enough to know that if it's him versus Trump, Trump may successfully scare a bare majority into rejecting Bernie as some scary socialist. 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Zombie said:

It's annoying when you act so certain but you really have no better idea than any other politico how our fickle electorate will vote.

Re-read the post you're quoting. The first sentence is a joke and the rest are conditional (the last two literally starting with "if"). I have no idea where you're getting certainty from.

The most probably outcome of the primary is a Biden nomination. Bernie second, Warren third, and the rest very improbable. Do you disagree with that?

The best shot for Bernie is youth turnout. Do you disagree with that?

 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

He's pointing out crosstabs, henry, settle down.

I think Bernie is winning Steve King's district because Bernie ALSO hates Jews. There, feel better?

The young people are coming to rallies and volunteering, but will they caucus? This is the key.

If they don't, Bernie does poorly and the shitlibs cheer a development that's actually terrible for the general.

If they do, Bernie does well and the shitlibs will be sad about a development that's actually wonderful for the general.

i’m settled. just poking fun at emerson which has had some accuracy trouble in the past. and yes, the actual poll got posted twice (first by you) before wp posted again with crosstabs. 

i would be shocked if klobs finished top 3 in iowa.

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted
On 1/25/2020 at 2:49 PM, washparkhorn said:

Interesting take. Thanks. There should be a thread on profiling. 

Here is a little paper on the subject. If anyone reads it, let me know. 

http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2020/01/21st-century-machiavellians-1-2-elites-view-the-democratic-party-as-a-containment-vessel-for-popular-discontent.html

 

Fucking electrifying, galvanizing stuff, Wash. Thanks for posting. I'm only through part one.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1740

Posted
Posted

My sportsbook has Bernie as the favorite for Iowa/Nevada, and a heavy favorite for New Hampshire. Biden is a heavy favorite for South Carolina. 

Iowa odds:

Bernie Sanders
-140
Joe Biden
+200
Pete Buttigieg
+400
Elizabeth Warren
+500

Nevada odds:

Bernie Sanders
-140
Joe Biden
+120
Elizabeth Warren
+1000

New Hampshire:

Bernie Sanders
-200
Joe Biden
+250
Pete Buttigieg
+700
Elizabeth Warren
+900
 

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted

I believe that Biden winning SC is meaningless in the grand scheme of things as it ignores the fact that state will not go blue this year of for the foreseeable future and it assumes that black people are the same everywhere. I'd put more weight in the black vote of a state like Michigan or Ohio, both because they are battleground states and also because that electorate is more urban in the true sense of the word, not the racial sense. 

There seems to be this narrative that if Biden carries SC by a big margin, then it's all over because he has been anointed by the bleks as a bloc and I think that's not just misguided but insulting. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I believe that Biden winning SC is meaningless in the grand scheme of things as it ignores the fact that state will not go blue this year of for the foreseeable future and it assumes that black people are the same everywhere. I'd put more weight in the black vote of a state like Michigan or Ohio, both because they are battleground states and also because that electorate is more urban in the true sense of the word, not the racial sense. 

There seems to be this narrative that if Biden carries SC by a big margin, then it's all over because he has been anointed by the bleks as a bloc and I think that's not just misguided but insulting. 

There's a decent chance SC could be meaningless and not be the kickstart that Biden expects. A lot of moving pieces here though. 

1. I think Bernie right now might very well win Iowa, NH, and Nevada

2. Pete's chances are pretty much done IMO, but if he posts a strong #2 in Iowa, that really helps Bernie. And then Pete continues on to possibly put up a good number in NH as well which would hurt Biden a bit. 

 

If Biden ends up finishing 2nd behind Bernie in Iowa (meaning Pete finishes 3rd or 4th) that will speed up the process of Buttigieg dropping out. My guess is if Pete finishes 3rd/4th in Iowa AND NH he will drop out fairly quickly. At that point Biden will consolidate more voters and have a stronger chance vs. Bernie as the primary continues. Warren still has the ability to recapture momentum, but she needs a good number in Iowa. 

My current thoughts on chances for the nomination: 

1. Bernie 50%

2. Biden 35%

3. Warren 10% 

4. Bloomberg 3% 

5. Buttigieg 2% 

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

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Posted

Iowa is such a wild card based on the caucus set-up.  Klobuchar is likely going to be declared non-viable after the first round.  But she has a fair number of supporters--probably between 5% and 10%.  Where do those people go?

I assume Biden gets most of them and Bernie gets very few of them.

I think the same dynamic is going to hold in precincts in which Buttgieg is non-viable.  Biden is going to get a lot of his supporters in the second round; Bernie very few.

There's a very interesting dynamic in caucuses that's worth watching, and it probably favors Biden.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

Posted
Posted

A very high-level Warren surrogate (leader of a major progressive PAC) mocking a college student's looks.

The Internet is toxic.

It's one thing to have policy disagreements, a personal dislike of the candidates, or even a dislike of the fanbases, but once you've convinced yourself that you are literally an abuse victim then how do you ever actually convince yourself to side with the people you have convinced are responsible for your real-life depression and suffering?

Also, in the case of this Warren surrogate and very prominent progressive, when you convince yourself that you are a victim of horrible monsters, you end up doing something this out-of-bounds. Mocking a literal college student who is... doing nothing wrong.

And there's not going to be any media outrage about this and there's not going to be anything from the Warren campaign about this. Which is just going to increase the toxicity because the Bernie campaign is constantly apologizing for online meanness we Bros are tired of it.

You guys aren't victims. Log off if your brains are too soft to handle the Internet.

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