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2020 Democratic Nominee

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46192

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Iowa is such a wild card based on the caucus set-up.  Klobuchar is likely going to be declared non-viable after the first round.  But she has a fair number of supporters--probably between 5% and 10%.  Where do those people go?

I assume Biden gets most of them and Bernie gets very few of them.

I think the same dynamic is going to hold in precincts in which Buttgieg is non-viable.  Biden is going to get a lot of his supporters in the second round; Bernie very few.

There's a very interesting dynamic in caucuses that's worth watching, and it probably favors Biden.

There may be some crossover to Warren from Klobuchar as well.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21806

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Iowa is such a wild card based on the caucus set-up.  Klobuchar is likely going to be declared non-viable after the first round.  But she has a fair number of supporters--probably between 5% and 10%.  Where do those people go?

I assume Biden gets most of them and Bernie gets very few of them.

Most of Klobuchar's people would go to Biden, then Warren. 

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15705

Posted
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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Most of Klobuchar's people would go to Biden, then Warren. 

 

I think that's right.

For Buttgieg's people, it's probably Biden, then Sanders.

And I don't know what to make of the Bloomberg/Steyer people.  They'd probably go right over to Biden, but who the fuck knows.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21806

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3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

A very high-level Warren surrogate (leader of a major progressive PAC) mocking a college student's looks.

The Internet is toxic.

It's one thing to have policy disagreements, a personal dislike of the candidates, or even a dislike of the fanbases, but once you've convinced yourself that you are literally an abuse victim then how do you ever actually convince yourself to side with the people you have convinced are responsible for your real-life depression and suffering?

Also, in the case of this Warren surrogate and very prominent progressive, when you convince yourself that you are a victim of horrible monsters, you end up doing something this out-of-bounds. Mocking a literal college student who is... doing nothing wrong.

And there's not going to be any media outrage about this and there's not going to be anything from the Warren campaign about this. Which is just going to increase the toxicity because the Bernie campaign is constantly apologizing for online meanness we Bros are tired of it.

You guys aren't victims. Log off if your brains are too soft to handle the Internet.

Interestingly, the nastiest, pettiest, and most engaged non-campaign staff surrogates on Twitter all belong to Elizabeth Warren. 

Adam Green, Jodi Jacobson, Adam Jentleson (former Harry Reid staffer), and Sawyer Hackett (Castro's communication director).  All of them are just real pieces of shit playing the dirtiest of politics. 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19567

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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Interestingly, the nastiest, pettiest, and most engaged non-campaign staff surrogates on Twitter all belong to Elizabeth Warren. 

Adam Green, Jodi Jacobson, Adam Jentleson (former Harry Reid staffer), and Sawyer Hackett (Castro's communication director).  All of them are just real pieces of shit playing the dirtiest of politics. 

You haven't seen anything yet. Wait til it gets down to Bernie and Biden.

The DNC is not going to let Bernie be the nominee and it's going to get very ugly.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13566

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Interestingly, the nastiest, pettiest, and most engaged non-campaign staff surrogates on Twitter all belong to Elizabeth Warren. 

Adam Green, Jodi Jacobson, Adam Jentleson (former Harry Reid staffer), and Sawyer Hackett (Castro's communication director).  All of them are just real pieces of shit playing the dirtiest of politics. 

I wonder if any of them were behind the leak to CNN.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21806

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

About how Sanders told Warren that the ladies can't win the presidency.

It's possible but who knows. 

I will say that Green, Jacobson, Jentleson, and Hackett's main focus for the last 3-4 months has been to take down Pete. There have been hit pieces from journalists where Green, Jacobson, and Jentleson are the main people quoted. It's ridiculous. 

So far, I actually think Bernie has benefited the most from their tactics. It hasn't really helped Liz polling-wise. 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1799

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19 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

You haven't seen anything yet. Wait til it gets down to Bernie and Biden.

The DNC is not going to let Bernie be the nominee and it's going to get very ugly.

I'm skeptical this time because they are going to absolutely fracture the party and completely turn a 180 on their #VoteBlueNoMatterWho messaging (which I agree is probably not meant for anyone but Bernie supporters).

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46192

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12 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I'm skeptical this time because they are going to absolutely fracture the party and completely turn a 180 on their #VoteBlueNoMatterWho messaging (which I agree is probably not meant for anyone but Bernie supporters).

If it comes to those two and it does become clear that the DNC is trying to rig the process again, I will be hardcore Bernie.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21806

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32 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

You haven't seen anything yet. Wait til it gets down to Bernie and Biden.

The DNC is not going to let Bernie be the nominee and it's going to get very ugly.

We'll see, but I don't think you're right. 

The DNC's power has been greatly diminished since Trump won in 2016. No one gives a shit what they think. Their surrogates on TV won't move the needle, and neither will their op-ed pieces blasting Bernie. Without Hillary as their symbol, the establishment part of the party has lost its identity. 

The news cycle just moves way too fast. The only tactic they can use is throw out as much shit as possible to create a negative narrative on Bernie. The problem is they already tried it in 2016. It's not going to have the same effect in 2020. The narrative with Bernie has already been voiced. 

But one reason you could be right, is that so many #Resistance and establishment Ds are more focused on impeachment  instead of the primary. If Bernie convincingly wins Iowa, maybe that will wake them up. But I think Bernie media will be able to fight back. It will be fascinating to watch. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15705

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7 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

But one reason you could be right, is that so many #Resistance and establishment Ds are more focused on impeachment  instead of the primary. If Bernie convincingly wins Iowa, maybe that will wake them up. But I think Bernie media will be able to fight back. It will be fascinating to watch. 

That's an interesting hypothesis.  I have no idea if that's true, but it is definitely interesting.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29228

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4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

God I hope this is true.

I still think Biden is the most likely candidate, but if those who hate Bernie can chill out if he wins, then we have a real chance of getting Trump out.

it takes a man as uninspiring as biden to make people overlook their "hatred" of bernie.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21806

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Posted
7 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

God I hope this is true.

I still think Biden is the most likely candidate, but if those who hate Bernie can chill out if he wins, then we have a real chance of getting Trump out.

I believe it. That's what the evidence has shown so far. I'm not trying to jinx Bernie here (I 100% prefer him over Biden). 

Trump winning in 2016 completely broke both parties. One decided to bend the knee to Trump, the other is kind of rudderless right now. 

 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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Posted (edited)

Remove the ideology, Biden and Bernie are practically cut from the same cloth.  Old career DC politicians with checkered pasts, some health issues, and unsuccessful presidential campaign bids.  They also both represented tiny states in the north east.

Not sure if either is the best recipe for victory against Trump in 2020 but who knows.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13566

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So the DNC announced their lineup for leadership at the 2020 nomination convention in Wisconsin.

One of the co-chairs of the platform committee is Meghan Stabler.

Who is she?

Well, she's on the board of a PAC that is about to spend $700k+ launching an attack ad against Bernie Sanders in Iowa.

I hope that Tweet from earlier is true, because this organization is so corrupt that I have 0 trust in it. If they decide the candidate over the will of the people, I will not support their chosen candidate and I will encourage others to either leave the top line blank or write in the candidate who came into the convention with the most delegates.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46192

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22 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

So the DNC announced their lineup for leadership at the 2020 nomination convention in Wisconsin.

One of the co-chairs of the platform committee is Meghan Stabler.

Who is she?

Well, she's on the board of a PAC that is about to spend $700k+ launching an attack ad against Bernie Sanders in Iowa.

I hope that Tweet from earlier is true, because this organization is so corrupt that I have 0 trust in it. If they decide the candidate over the will of the people, I will not support their chosen candidate and I will encourage others to either leave the top line blank or write in the candidate who came into the convention with the most delegates.

I do hope it will be worth it to you to burn it all down.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19567

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

From your lips to God's ears.

Bernie is the only candidate in the field right now who would 100% lose to Trump.

I have no way of knowing if that's true, but I do know the Democratic Party leadership hates him and his candidacy. 

He should have never run as a Democrat the first time. It's unbelievable he did it a second time. 

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Skipper

Skipper 6412

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7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

From your lips to God's ears.

Bernie is the only candidate in the field right now who would 100% lose to Trump.

This.  Over/Under on the number of Trump tweets with the words "economy", "socialism" and "Venezuela"?  Barring a repeat of the 2008/9 financial collapse that's all Trump will need to focus on.

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mchookem

mchookem 16779

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36 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Remove the ideology, Biden and Bernie are practically cut from the same cloth.  Old career DC politicians with checkered pasts, some health issues, and unsuccessful presidential campaign bids.  They also both represented tiny states in the north east.

i'm ready... just need to know if my refrain will be 'hell yeah im a centrist/moderate/corporate dem, let's do this!' or 'socialism, fuck yeah!"

im down with either. no, seriously. 

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4668

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1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Not sure why people think/say this. Do you think there are people that are on the fence on Trump? I assume the entire Dem party would support whoever ran against Trump.

There are lots of really low information Dems who won't vote for Bernie. 

I don't buy that Bernie is the only one that would lose to Trump.  But the idea that there aren't vast numbers of especially older Dems who won't vote for an avowed socialist -- that's crazy.

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26442

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Just now, tantric superman said:

There are lots of really low information Dems who won't vote for Bernie. 

I don't buy that Bernie is the only one that would lose to Trump.  But the idea that there aren't vast numbers of especially older Dems who won't vote for an avowed socialist -- that's crazy.

Fair.

But you could argue that there are many Sanders supporters that won't vote for Biden.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13566

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58 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I do hope it will be worth it to you to burn it all down.

The DNC sets the house on fire and you're ready to blame people who don't want to run inside?

46 minutes ago, Skipper said:

This.  Over/Under on the number of Trump tweets with the words "economy", "socialism" and "Venezuela"?  Barring a repeat of the 2008/9 financial collapse that's all Trump will need to focus on.

That's what he's going to argue against every single candidate the Dems could run.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9974

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Bernie is the only candidate in the field right now who would 100% lose to Trump.

I respect your opinion, but disagree. Remember 2008?

https://twitter.com/kthalps/status/1222239288127037440

This election is becoming 2008 again - from the "toxic Obama boys" (remember them?) to the PUMA's (Party Unity My Ass Hillary Supporters).

The enthusiasm this cycle is with Sanders - as it was with Obama in his contest against the "my turn" Hillary campaign.

Time will tell. 

 

Edited by washparkhorn
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Skipper

Skipper 6412

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Just now, bad_teammate said:

 

That's what he's going to argue against every single candidate the Dems could run.

Oh I agree.  But there is a difference between arguing that against someone like Biden vs. a self proclaimed socialist (I'm sorry but your average voter is not going to appreciate any 'democratic socialist' nuance). 

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13566

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3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Oh I agree.  But there is a difference between arguing that against someone like Biden vs. a self proclaimed socialist (I'm sorry but your average voter is not going to appreciate any 'democratic socialist' nuance). 

There is no such thing as an "average voter". When someone argues about an "average voter" what they mean is either "me" or a "center-right white guy". There are coalitions to appeal to.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9974

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Posted

Democratic voters will understand. Perhaps not the over 50's at the beginning, but when they see their "socialist" SS and Medicare under attack, they will defend those "socialist programs" (along with public schools, public health, public roads, public parks, . . . ). FDR social programs are well received in this country. And when Trump supporters hear that Trump plans to cut SS in his second term, some of them will lose the passion for him. 

Social programs are not communism. 

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1799

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Bernie inspiring huge turnout in the primary where fewer people vote means that the ever dwindling boomer population is going to successfully rally once again, yes 100% correct. Let's ignore all polling that shows him beating Trump head-to-head. The average voter isn't going to fucking differentiate what a Socialist actually is when they've been fed it the past 12 years.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21806

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Posted
4 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

I respect your opinion, but disagree. Remember 2008?

https://twitter.com/kthalps/status/1222239288127037440

This election is becoming 2008 again - from the "toxic Obama boys" (remember them?) to the PUMA's (Party Unity My Ass Hillary Supporters).

The enthusiasm this cycle is with Sanders - as it was with Obama in his contest against the "my turn" Hillary campaign.

Time will tell. 

 

I know we all have a tendency to look to past elections to prove our points, but in the Trump era I don't know how we can really predict what's going to happen. The GOP has gone rogue and bent the knee to Donald. Democrats are in complete disarray. Social media has grown into an entirely new beast and it's massively affected the psyches of voters. 

A lot of people are gonna need to suck it up with a nominee they don't like in order to defeat Trump. Not sure if it will happen. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26898

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Posted
Iowa is such a wild card based on the caucus set-up.  Klobuchar is likely going to be declared non-viable after the first round.  But she has a fair number of supporters--probably between 5% and 10%.  Where do those people go?
I assume Biden gets most of them and Bernie gets very few of them.
I think the same dynamic is going to hold in precincts in which Buttgieg is non-viable.  Biden is going to get a lot of his supporters in the second round; Bernie very few.
There's a very interesting dynamic in caucuses that's worth watching, and it probably favors Biden.

I wish Texas still had the two-step primary+caucus. Getting rid of it was another shitty thing the Clinton faction did to avoid confronting the fact that she was just a really bad politician.
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