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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

By used2b
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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Posted
7 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

There is no such thing as an "average voter". When someone argues about an "average voter" what they mean is either "me" or a "center-right white guy". There are coalitions to appeal to.

Middle class American that has a job and a 401K.   Presumably any Democratic nominee will need votes from this group.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Middle class American that has a job and a 401K.   Presumably any Democratic nominee will need votes from this group.

The middle class is being hollowed out from below. As it inches closer to your socio-economic group, you will understand better the enthusiasm for Sanders. There needs to be a reorientation of priorities. Not me, us.

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Skipper

Skipper 6103

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2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Thank you for reinforcing what I already said.

(link)

As such, just 32% of the total workforce is saving in a 401(k). 

I stand by my statement that any democratic candidate will need votes from this group and I think probably a safe assumption that employed savers are more inclined to vote than others. 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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Posted (edited)

The “who would win/lose vs Trump” is complete armchair speculation that no poll can help predict.  

The election of Barack Obama and Donald Trump kinda proves that predicting electability is a fool’s errand.  
 

However, you can make logical cases as to why some candidates might perform better than others.
 

For instance, contrary to the view of this board, I believe a woman would perform better because of the amount of rage women have against what Trump has done.  The million women march and women leading the charge in the blue wave with new inspiring leaders like AOC and Katie Porter are also indicators that the country is ready for female leadership.  Moreover, Trump being defeated by a woman would exorcise so many demons in this county instantly.  I think both Warren or Klobuchar would perform better than the dudes against Trump.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

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I seem to remember people making cases for Oprah or Michelle Obama because they’d certainly win.  Kamala had a strong case too.  The argument that female candidates are at a disadvantage is pretty laughable considering the one abrasive woman that ran got three million more votes and more votes than any white man in US history.

18 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Even Bernie isn’t really popular because of ideas.  It’s just because he’s authentic

Bernie has created the perception he’s authentic, I’ll give you that.  

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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

Posted
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2 hours ago, tantric superman said:

There are lots of really low information Dems who won't vote for Bernie. 

I don't buy that Bernie is the only one that would lose to Trump.  But the idea that there aren't vast numbers of especially older Dems who won't vote for an avowed socialist -- that's crazy.

First, low information Dems are gonna vote for the Dem candidate. Even Bernie.  Second, the anti-Bern Dems, and the Dems that are scared of the socialism buzzword, are mostly moderate fence sitters.  They may stay home or they may vote Bernie along with voting for a moderate Dem Senator and house rep. I just don't see any of them voting Trump.

The whole thing hinges on white union populist voters in the Midwest.  Bernie reaches them better than any other Dem candidate.  They're already socialist even if they don't want to admit it.  Still, my vote is with Warren because I believe she can work with those new moderate Dem Reps and Senators that hopefully maintain the house majority and take the Senate majority. I'm not sure Bernie can. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

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4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Any plan that isn't 100% coverage for 100% of people will kill Americans. Very happy to see popular action on this.

What happens here in a Bernie vs. Trump situation? Are Bernie supporters going to protest in random Trump election offices? Would probably be dangerous. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What happens here in a Bernie vs. Trump situation? Are Bernie supporters going to protest in random Trump election offices? Would probably be dangerous. 

They will. And he will have meltdowns. And when the video shows them singing "This little light of mine . . . " any violence by a Trump supporter will be vilified in the civilized world. 

Democracy in action. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

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2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Not sure why people think/say this. Do you think there are people that are on the fence on Trump? I assume the entire Dem party would support whoever ran against Trump.

Because functionally every poll out there shows Bernie losing to Trump H2H, if you assume that a Democrat needs to win by 2.5% to overcome the disadvantage in the Electoral College.  This isn't made-up shit; there are actual data on this.  Biden performs the best among the Democratic contenders. Bernie generally performs far worse.

You can see plenty of spread between how Biden performs and how Sanders performs.  That's not necessarily indicative of people being on the fence about Trump so much as it is indicative of Americans being generally opposed to socialism.  There is a large number of people who won't vote for Sanders but who would vote for almost literally any other Democrat.

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GSU&UT

GSU&UT 1798

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Because functionally every poll out there shows Bernie losing to Trump H2H, if you assume that a Democrat needs to win by 2.5% to overcome the disadvantage in the Electoral College.  This isn't made-up shit; there are actual data on this.  Biden performs the best among the Democratic contenders. Bernie generally performs far worse.

You can see plenty of spread between how Biden performs and how Sanders performs.  That's not necessarily indicative of people being on the fence about Trump so much as it is indicative of Americans being generally opposed to socialism.  There is a large number of people who won't vote for Sanders but who would vote for almost literally any other Democrat.

What? I have to get off my laptop now and can't look up polls, but I have seen TONS of polls of Bernie beating Trump head to head. I'll give you that there have been a couple where he hasn't and maybe a swing state or two, but there are tons that contradict this.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

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6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

They will. And he will have meltdowns. And when the video shows them singing "This little light of mine . . . " any violence by a Trump supporter will be vilified in the civilized world. 

Democracy in action. 

Well, the "civilized world" in this scenario will not include the President of the United States, Republican voters or the GOP.  So war it is, I guess. 
 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

Posted
Posted
Just now, longhornmatt said:

The polls show Biden doing the best against Trump, then Bloomberg and Sanders, and then Warren and Buttigieg.  I don’t even think there are more than 1 or 2 polls of him against Klobuchar or anyone else. 

I think that's right.

Look--we're not nominating Buttgieg.  And I don't think we're nominating Warren.  This is the Biden/Sanders/Bloomberg/Klobuchar-if-Biden-strokes-out show.  And of this choices, the polling is really very clear that Biden is the best candidate against Trump.  I mean, to the point that virtually every poll shows Biden getting 50% or better at this early date.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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Posted (edited)

LL - you have been fed some bad information in your information silo. It happens. Here is polling from RCP. Bernie beats him.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html#polls

And for comparison sake - here is Biden. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Liz fares worse.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html

 

Edited by washparkhorn
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

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5 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

LL - you have been fed some bad information in your information silo. It happens. Here is polling from RCP. Bernie beats him.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html#polls

And for comparison sake - here is Biden. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Liz fares worse.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html

 

Ugh--you're right.  He wins in two of them.  He loses in the rest (if we assume, as we must, that a Democrat needs to win by better than 2.5% to win in the Electoral College).

Still--that's not great.

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Head to head polls are dumb and overrated. 

 

 

Why?

I might agree with you when we're talking about someone with relatively low name recognition (e.g., Buttgieg or Klobuchar).  But with people who have 100% name recognition (e.g., Trump and Biden), why do you think H2H polls are not predictive?

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Well, the "civilized world" in this scenario will not include the President of the United States, Republican voters or the GOP.  So war it is, I guess. 
 

Longshanks got his comeuppance. I have now doubt the just will prevail in an us v. Trump fight.

 

But it won't come to that. Most Americans treasure common decency. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Why?

I might agree with you when we're talking about someone with relatively low name recognition (e.g., Buttgieg or Klobuchar).  But with people who have 100% name recognition (e.g., Trump and Biden), why do you think H2H polls are not predictive?

Predicting how a D candidate will hold up vs. Trump right now is a fool's errand IMO. We haven't cast a single vote yet in the D primary, a lot of voters are more focused on impeachment instead of elections, and all the D candidates are fighting each other at the moment. 

EDIT: Also, when you look at the head to head numbers, Trump's percentage is usually the same (maybe a 1-2% difference) no matter who the candidate. 

 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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Posted
Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Ugh--you're right.  He wins in two of them.  He loses in the rest (if we assume, as we must, that a Democrat needs to win by better than 2.5% to win in the Electoral College).

That's an interesting perspective. I think you forgot to scroll down. 

Sanders wins more than 60 polls with Trump only winning - what 4?  

And most are above your 2.5% line. 

But I appreciate the goalpost you define. It's helpful.

 

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Hank Scorpio

Hank Scorpio 17721

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Posted (edited)

One thing is clear: Biden is the only candidate with a shot of beating Trump. That 1.3% polling advantage he has over Sanders in a pre Iowa poll is massive. Not sure how any sane person could come to any other conclusion. I am a Republican cosplaying as a Democrat and I am the smartest man alive. 

Edited by Hank Scorpio
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GoldAppleCorps

GoldAppleCorps 617

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Head to head polls are non predictive at this stage because the Republican candidate is a known quantity. As such, the different candidates can brand their message specifically towards him. There is no way for the Republican message to specifically address any one candidate with that type of vigor.

If, say,  Buttigieg were the candidate, then Trump's message would (should be - assuming someone with an actual grasp on reality is running it) be his low experience level, the small world of South Bend compared to foreign policy, and probably his sinful, demonic lifestyle. I'm not saying these are valid (or even credible) criticism. I'm just pointing out that the criticisms are specific to each candidate. The Dems know who to directly criticize. The Republicans don't have that specific target yet, so their message appears weaker in polling.

Polls WILL tell you which voting groups are favoring a given candidate. Right now, black women will enthusiastically support Joe Biden - and not really any other candidate. That's VERY important, as this enthusiasm gap strategically cost the Dems in 2016.

In that light, there will be two choices in November. If you're eligible to vote, you can either vote for the Democratic candidate, or you can vote for Donald Trump. Staying home and complaining is the same as voting for Trump.

Throw shade, then vote.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15477

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9 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

But I appreciate the goalpost you define. It's helpful.

 

It's not my fucking goalpost.  There are studies out about how much a Democrat needs to win by.  And even if there weren't studies, we just ran the experiment in 2016, and obviously winning by 2.3% doesn't get it done.

So yeah--if one guy wins by 2% and another guy wins by 3.5% . . . and you need to win by 2.5% to win the Electoral College--then yeah, that 1.5% is pretty motherfucking important.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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Posted

Conservatives concern-trolling about Bernie's chances and ignoring overwhelming evidence? WELL I NEVER!!!!!!!!!!!!

34 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What happens here in a Bernie vs. Trump situation? Are Bernie supporters going to protest in random Trump election offices? Would probably be dangerous. 

Yes.

Rewind 2-3 years to when Richard Spencer et al were organizing white supremacy march after white supremacy march. Remember?

They aren't doing it anymore.

Why? ANTIFA

Direct action is what fights fascism.

Naziism reared its head in America and here were the reactions...

Centrists and liberals:

tenor.gif?itemid=9520309

The Bros (and people too far left to even want to vote at all):

giphy.gif

Ask yourself this: Who do you want against the MAGA CHUDs during the general election?

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's not my fucking goalpost.  There are studies out about how much a Democrat needs to win by.  And even if there weren't studies, we just ran the experiment in 2016, and obviously winning by 2.3% doesn't get it done.

So yeah--if one guy wins by 2% and another guy wins by 3.5% . . . and you need to win by 2.5% to win the Electoral College--then yeah, that 1.5% is pretty motherfucking important.

Bernie is averaging 3.0 percent. Close to the 2.5 Mendoza line you describe, but above it. 

No offense was intended. I wanted to understand the basis for your argument and you provided it. Thank you. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20678

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So yeah--if one guy wins by 2% and another guy wins by 3.5% . . . and you need to win by 2.5% to win the Electoral College--then yeah, that 1.5% is pretty motherfucking important.

We are completely fucked if we're going to use fractional polling statistics to make an electability argument. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's not my fucking goalpost.  There are studies out about how much a Democrat needs to win by.  And even if there weren't studies, we just ran the experiment in 2016, and obviously winning by 2.3% doesn't get it done.

So yeah--if one guy wins by 2% and another guy wins by 3.5% . . . and you need to win by 2.5% to win the Electoral College--then yeah, that 1.5% is pretty motherfucking important.

 

That 2.5% isn't static though. I think I buy the theory that Bernie will do better in the midwest than every candidate except maybe Biden. And the midwest is the only thing that matters.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13132

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33 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Antifa will fight.

We have no idea yet how the "Bros" will handle physical confrontation if they are going to walk into MAGA offices to protest. 

*looking around for hidden mics and cameras*

GOOD POINT HANK THERE IS CERTAINLY NO OVERLAP BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS

giphy.gif

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