2020 Democratic Nominee

[bad_teammate 13,125]

If Bernie finishes 3rd or lower in NH, then the case for him electorally starts to collapse.

While I get where Aqua is coming from on turnout, I can't put too much stock into it right now. People are excited to hate Trump and Trump isn't on the ballot in the primary. It's an ugly clusterfuck that people don't want to involve themselves with. MILLIONS of Americans are thinking, "I don't care, I just want to vote against Trump" so they aren't involving themselves in an ugly primary season.

[Alvin89 108]

4 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If Bernie finishes 3rd or lower in NH, then the case for him electorally starts to collapse.

While I get where Aqua is coming from on turnout, I can't put too much stock into it right now. People are excited to hate Trump and Trump isn't on the ballot in the primary. It's an ugly clusterfuck that people don't want to involve themselves with. MILLIONS of Americans are thinking, "I don't care, I just want to vote against Trump" so they aren't involving themselves in an ugly primary season.

I'm not a Bernie supporter but is there any real chance he finished third or lower in NH?

[Aqua Buddha 14,489]

6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

- Bernie's favorability is high and has been high for years.

- Bernie beats Trump constantly in head-to-heads.

- Bernie's coalition is broad and extremely diverse. This is extremely important because one of the main reasons Hillary lost is that the non-white vote COLLAPSED. If we win back the minorities in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, we win the White House.

- Well-off whites are going to go to Trump, so a candidate whose main appeal is to that small and captured-by-Republicans base is a fool's errand.

- Bernie is still the preferred choice of white union laborers despite expanding his coalition to include so many minorities. (ESPECIALLY if Biden falls)

- Bernie has an online army of jerks and monsters who will do direct battle with the online CHUDs who are an underrated part of Trump's base and scream bloody murder at the media at all times to keep it on its toes

- Bernie attracts a massive volunteer force that is decentralized, which means his campaign won't have to coordinate action across this massive nation, we will do it ourselves. When it comes to GOTV in the general, this will be game-changing.
 

 

That's a good response.  Thanks.  Unlike a lot of the talking heads, I don't think Bern is the most unelectable person in the field.  (Pete and Warren are 0% and Biden is only slightly better than them.)    

NH will be interesting to me because it's proximity to Vermont.  If he loses or turnout is soft all around, that's cause for concern.

[henrygandorf 29,174]

10 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

- Bernie's favorability is high and has been high for years.

- Bernie beats Trump constantly in head-to-heads.

- Bernie's coalition is broad and extremely diverse. This is extremely important because one of the main reasons Hillary lost is that the non-white vote COLLAPSED. If we win back the minorities in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, we win the White House.

- Well-off whites are going to go to Trump, so a candidate whose main appeal is to that small and captured-by-Republicans base is a fool's errand.

- Bernie is still the preferred choice of white union laborers despite expanding his coalition to include so many minorities. (ESPECIALLY if Biden falls)

- Bernie has an online army of jerks and monsters who will do direct battle with the online CHUDs who are an underrated part of Trump's base and scream bloody murder at the media at all times to keep it on its toes

- Bernie attracts a massive volunteer force that is decentralized, which means his campaign won't have to coordinate action across this massive nation, we will do it ourselves. When it comes to GOTV in the general, this will be game-changing.

a combination of these two (with some added words about being nice) is the key to me.

his maniacs will spend 6 months telling anyone who will listen (and everyone else just for fun) about why bernie needs to win.  i'm not worried about primary turnout, electability as of january/february, bullshit h2h polls, or policy quibbles before the general.

i'm worried about how everything will work once we have a nominee.  bernie's organizational support (and the aforementioned maniacs) make me less worried. 

[bad_teammate 13,125]

5 minutes ago, Alvin89 said:

I'm not a Bernie supporter but is there any real chance he finished third or lower in NH?

Of course there's a chance.

Iowa (so far) went like this:
Sanders - 26.2%
Buttigieg - 25.2%
Warren - 20.6%

That's close!

That's way too damned close for me to sit here thinking NH is in the bag.

[henrygandorf 29,174]

5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That's a good response.  Thanks.  Unlike a lot of the talking heads, I don't think Bern is the most unelectable person in the field.  (Pete and Warren are 0% and Biden is only slightly better than them.)  

with trump on the ballot, nobody is a zero.  in fact, you could argue (correctly) that all dems beat trump in the popular vote.  that's not nothing.

but h2h polls with trump right now are inherently flawed.  gonna be a lot going on between the convention and the general election.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

We Bros are like Dennis Rodman in the 90s. You hate him on the other team, but you love him on yours.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

Will Menaker's girlfriend

 

[David Dennison 18,608]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Of course there's a chance.

Iowa (so far) went like this:
Sanders - 26.2%
Buttigieg - 25.2%
Warren - 20.6%

That's close!

That's way too damned close for me to sit here thinking NH is in the bag.

New Hampshire is in the bag. Bernie will win handily.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

Just now, David Dennison said:

New Hampshire is in the bag. Bernie will win handily.

[Aqua Buddha 14,489]

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

with trump on the ballot, nobody is a zero.  in fact, you could argue (correctly) that all dems beat trump in the popular vote.  that's not nothing.

but h2h polls with trump right now are inherently flawed.  gonna be a lot going on between the convention and the general election.

My concern is the “I hate Trump but I can’t vote for a Communist” line from the suburban whites.  Maybe they won’t vote Dem anyway but enough of them might in key states.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

My concern is the “I hate Trump but I can’t vote for a Communist” line from the suburban whites.  Maybe they won’t vote Dem anyway but enough of them might in key states.

We did this already in 2016 and we lost the White House, we lost the Senate, and we lost the House.

Here's what Chuck Schumer said about the 2016 strategy when asked about losing support among the working class, “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

We didn't even win suburban whites in the 2018 Blue Wave where the establishment tried very very hard to run as many safe moderate white people as possible in the suburbs. Suburban whites are a lost cause electorally.

We need to get as many as we can, of course, but that's overfished water.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

Also, Aqua, this should encourage you...

 

[Biff Tannen 45,477]

36 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

This post is cool because you can see Biff getting madder with every word. By the final sentence, he's purple in the face.

I never said they're "biased against Bernie". Just pointing out what you agree with, which is that they aren't a pro-Bernie propaganda outlet.

It's cool, Biff, these are stressful time and we will all be able to unite behind 24/7 bashing of Donald Trump and the Republicans once this nonsense gets sorted out.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

My concern is the “I hate Trump but I can’t vote for a Communist” line from the suburban whites.  Maybe they won’t vote Dem anyway but enough of them might in key states.

I mean this is 100% anecdotal and I understand if you doubt its authenticity, but I've donated to a couple of GoFundMes to get volunteers to SC. This is a guy who has been there for the past week or so.

 

[Js1 85,056]

Uh yeah that guy seems....cool. “Obama is a black Joe Manchin”

 

[bad_teammate 13,125]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

I mean this is 100% anecdotal and I understand if you doubt its authenticity, but I've donated to a couple of GoFundMes to get volunteers to SC. This is a guy who has been there for the past week or so.

 

 

[GSU&UT 1,798]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Uh yeah that guy seems....cool. “Obama is a black Joe Manchin”

 

Yep, miss my point entirely.

[henrygandorf 29,174]

15 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

My concern is the “I hate Trump but I can’t vote for a Communist” line from the suburban whites.  Maybe they won’t vote Dem anyway but enough of them might in key states.

if bernie is the nom, you will get that response.  if biden is the nom, the progressives may sit out.  there is risk on both sides, and there's not much we can do about it right now.

like i said, all that matters what happens from july -> november.  i don't think you could argue either side is a "sure thing to fall in line" in order to beat trump.  it's just the world we live in.

[Brothahorn 10,085]

 

Looks like Joe has had enough of the nice guy shit.

Will Bernie even notice?

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

3 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

Looks like Joe has had enough of the nice guy shit.

Joe unplugged is hilarious and I look forward to more Corn Pop stories.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Joe unplugged is hilarious and I look forward to more Corn Pop stories.

 

[bad_teammate 13,125]

16 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

Will Bernie even notice?

 

[Skipper 6,088]

4 hours ago, GSU&UT said:

 When you look at what they're truly wanting, as I said an actual dismantling of capitalism in the US

Someone asked why there is some appeal to Pete?  It's the same reason Biden was considered the heavy favorite (until it's becoming more and more clear he's senile).  It's because (i) he's not Trump and (ii) they think the above is batshit crazy.  I know that's hard for the socialists/communists on this board to understand.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

What would you imagine the % of Bernie supporters is that wants to dismantle capitalism?

I would bet that it's far lower than the % of any given Republican candidate supporters' desire to dismantle the social welfare system and let people die on the street.

[Brothahorn 10,085]

39 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Someone asked why there is some appeal to Pete?  It's the same reason Biden was considered the heavy favorite (until it's becoming more and more clear he's senile).  It's because (i) he's not Trump and (ii) they think the above is batshit crazy.  I know that's hard for the socialists/communists on this board to understand.

I was only half joking when I said Biden was my safe candidate. If he gets elected all you get is another Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama type. Status quo. Nothing radical in either way. Just some fringe shit to make a few people feel good.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

47 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Someone asked why there is some appeal to Pete?  It's the same reason Biden was considered the heavy favorite (until it's becoming more and more clear he's senile).  It's because (i) he's not Trump and (ii) they think the above is batshit crazy.  I know that's hard for the socialists/communists on this board to understand.

You said you wouldn't even vote for Warren dude, maybe sit this one out.

[Skipper 6,088]

3 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

I was only half joking when I said Biden was my safe candidate. If he gets elected all you get is another Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama type. Status quo. Nothing radical in either way. Just some fringe shit to make a few people feel good.

I mean you get Trump out of office and actually have a chance at getting some shit passed.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

Just now, Skipper said:

I mean you get Trump out of office and actually have a chance at getting some shit passed.

What is a major change you'd like to see in American governance?

[Skipper 6,088]

5 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

You said you wouldn't even vote for Warren dude, maybe sit this one out.

Yep.  And no thanks.  Sorry bro but non-socialists can have opinions as well.  Imagine that.   I think both Bernie and Warren are smart, impressive candidates but I also think both Bernie's and Warren's plans if actually implemented (they wouldn't be) would be disastrous for the economy.  

[Skipper 6,088]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

What is a major change you'd like to see in American governance?

Civility in the white house #1 (anyone but Trump checks that box) and prudent foreign policy/regaining respect of our allies and I'm on board with a lot of left leaning policies (addressing global warming, gun control, reasonable immigration policy, etc.).  And I'm in a hurry so this isn't articulate, but yeah, reasonable progressive taxes are one thing (and yes, fine with cutting a lot of loopholes to this country is actually fiscally responsible (lord knows republicans under Trump are anything but fiscally responsible)), but I'll never be on board with promises of "free shit" paid for exclusively by those that had the gall to be successful professionally.

[GSU&UT 1,798]

17 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yep.  And no thanks.  Sorry bro but non-socialists can have opinions as well.  Imagine that.   I think both Bernie and Warren are smart, impressive candidates but I also think both Bernie's and Warren's plans if actually implemented (they wouldn't be) would be disastrous for the economy.  

No one cares, you'll be in a re-education camp soon enough.

Edited February 5, 2020 by GSU&UT

[henrygandorf 29,174]

30 minutes ago, Brothahorn said:

I was only half joking when I said Biden was my safe candidate. If he gets elected all you get is another Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama type. Status quo. Nothing radical in either way. Just some fringe shit to make a few people feel good.

biden taking an extended 4-year nap like in one of those futuristic space travel movies would be distinctly better than what's going on now.

that type of fringe shit would make a lot of people feel good.

[David Dennison 18,608]

18 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yep.  And no thanks.  Sorry bro but non-socialists can have opinions as well.  Imagine that.   I think both Bernie and Warren are smart, impressive candidates but I also think both Bernie's and Warren's plans if actually implemented (they wouldn't be) would be disastrous for the economy.  

How would they be disastrous for the economy?

[bad_teammate 13,125]

3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Civility in the white house #1 (anyone but Trump checks that box) and prudent foreign policy/regaining respect of our allies and I'm on board with a lot of left leaning policies (addressing global warming, gun control, reasonable immigration policy, etc.).  And I'm in a hurry so this isn't articulate, but yeah, reasonable progressive taxes are one thing (and yes, fine with cutting a lot of loopholes to this country is actually fiscally responsible (lord knows republicans under Trump are anything but fiscally responsible)), but I'll never be on board with promises of "free shit" paid for exclusively by those that had the gall to be successful professionally.

So if we were going to have universal healthcare, do you think everyone who uses it should have to pay in?

I realize there are a million ways to skin a cat, but here are some options and you tell me which most aligns with your values...

Option A - A system in which healthcare isn't guaranteed and is gate-kept by ability to pay (either yourself or your insurer/employer).

Option B - A universal system paid for by taxes on the wealthy and none on whatever we might call the "middle class".

Option C - A universal system paid for by taxes on everyone above poverty.

[David Dennison 18,608]

9 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Civility in the white house #1 (anyone but Trump checks that box) and prudent foreign policy/regaining respect of our allies and I'm on board with a lot of left leaning policies (addressing global warming, gun control, reasonable immigration policy, etc.).  And I'm in a hurry so this isn't articulate, but yeah, reasonable progressive taxes are one thing (and yes, fine with cutting a lot of loopholes to this country is actually fiscally responsible (lord knows republicans under Trump are anything but fiscally responsible)), but I'll never be on board with promises of "free shit" paid for exclusively by those that had the gall to be successful professionally.

Please give us an example of "free shit" paid for exclusively by those that had the gall to be successful professionally.

Edited February 5, 2020 by David Dennison

[bad_teammate 13,125]

Nate Silver has updated his forecast thingy

No one 2020

[henrygandorf 29,174]

[bad_teammate 13,125]

[Js1 85,056]

😂

 

[Js1 85,056]

It truly amazing - the revival of Nate Silver when he suddenly has a model favoring Bernie. 

[Skipper 6,088]

4 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

So if we were going to have universal healthcare, do you think everyone who uses it should have to pay in?

I realize there are a million ways to skin a cat, but here are some options and you tell me which most aligns with your values...

Option A - A system in which healthcare isn't guaranteed and is gate-kept by ability to pay (either yourself or your insurer/employer).

Option B - A universal system paid for by taxes on the wealthy and none on whatever we might call the "middle class".

Option C - A universal system paid for by taxes on everyone above poverty.

I'm not smart enough to know the answer to healthcare and clearly I'm not alone.  A hasn't worked.  C sounds good in theory but I don't see how it doesn't result in different 'classes' of healthcare which will lead to more complaining by people that can't afford 'concierge' coverage.   And I don't know how we pay for it.  The vast majority of insured Americans that bitch about the constant increase in insurance premiums don't appreciate in almost all circumstances their insurance is already heavily subsidized by their employer.  I don't know what the answer is.

[Hank Kingsley 20,635]

Biden/Butti battle bubbling

 

[bad_teammate 13,125]

C sounds good in theory but I don't see how it doesn't result in different 'classes' of healthcare which will lead to more complaining by people that can't afford 'concierge' coverage.

Fair point. The rich are always going to have their thing separate and apart, but I don't think we should worry about the complaining so much as we should worry about ensuring necessary services to everyone.

There will be complaining in heaven. Can't avoid it.

And I don't know how we pay for it. 

To be fair, we already do. We pay a shitload already for Option A. So all we would really do is change the method of payment (to taxes) and the insurance company (CMS).

And a bonus is that the taxes would be lower than what we currently pay.

Can you think of a reason it's not worth a shot?

[GSU&UT 1,798]

Pete is clearly going to be the main challenger to Bernie it looks like now. Shit going to continue to get crazy.

 

[bad_teammate 13,125]

Pete is clearly going to be the main challenger to Bernie it looks like now. Shit going to continue to get crazy.
 

Pete absorbing Biden like Kirby.

[Hank Kingsley 20,635]

 

12 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Pete is clearly going to be the main challenger to Bernie it looks like now. Shit going to continue to get crazy.

 

Pete might have egg on his face if Bernie sweeps the final Iowa numbers, but it's clear the speech claiming to be "victorious" was a fucking savvy and ballsy political move. He needs to take some risks and that was a smart one.

He's not the main challenger yet though.

IMO Pete entered Iowa with a 1% chance at the nomination. He had to finish top 2 in Iowa and clearly beat Biden. Done. Now, he absolutely has to finish top 2 in NH with another close finish with Bernie, or in a dream scenario win the state. Then after NH - and this is by far the most crucial part - Biden's campaign has to basically collapse and they all jump on the Buttigieg wagon. It's is only hope to put up an acceptable number in NEV and especially SC in order to remain viable heading into Super Tuesday.

Edited February 6, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[Hank Kingsley 20,635]

And for those that don't hate Pete but just question his experience, a little boy mayor just beat the shit out of 2 term VP in Iowa. His organization, discipline, and overall strategy is impressive.

He would kick the shit out of Trump in the general election if enough Democrats got behind him.

[bad_teammate 13,125]

I don't think there will be any egg. His victory call was the right move.

A tight 1-2 finish in NH adds wind to Pete's sails and takes some out of Bernie's.

This is interesting! Ladies and gents, we have ourselves a ballgame.

[berlinerbaer 670]

9 hours ago, David Dennison said:

New Hampshire is in the bag. Bernie will win handily.

Bernie beat Hillary there by over 20 points in 2016. Lots of bros in New Hampshire.