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2020 Democratic Nominee

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Cheeseweasel

Cheeseweasel 26,438

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But the Dems....the Dem base is more of a coalition than the GOP.  What the Dems have to figure out is how to motivate and appeal to the broadest chunk of that coalition.  They can still  fuck that up by picking a point that leaves enough members of the coalition, at one end or the other, on the sidelines.  Thus the cautionary words about Biden, for example.  That's a challenge the Dems have that the GOP doesn't.  I think that makes them a better party for it, but it's still a challenge

Good call.

The challenge to the Dems this year will be having a nominating process that selects the best candidate while not pissing off the 90% who won't win the nomination. I think most in the party are Anyone But Trump, however, if the process doesn't seem fair, I can see Bernie supporters bailing out. That's why I believe someone like Bloomberg is bad for the party. If the DNC changes rules to allow him into debates (for example) or if Superdelegates end up pulling for Biden or Bloomberg to put him over the top, I think the progressive wing of the party will stay home in November. 

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8,349

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13 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Good call.

The challenge to the Dems this year will be having a nominating process that selects the best candidate while not pissing off the 90% who won't win the nomination. I think most in the party are Anyone But Trump, however, if the process doesn't seem fair, I can see Bernie supporters bailing out. That's why I believe someone like Bloomberg is bad for the party. If the DNC changes rules to allow him into debates (for example) or if Superdelegates end up pulling for Biden or Bloomberg to put him over the top, I think the progressive wing of the party will stay home in November. 

I am leaning toward "top line blank" if there is DNC funny business. My Texas vote doesn't matter, and even if it did, if it would go to Bloomberg instead of Trump, it would simply be a vote for style over substance in many of the most tangible ways. 

At some point they have to learn that they can't keep ramming do-nothing candidates down our throats. If that leads to a second Trump term this time around, so be it: it might hasten us all getting off our asses and out in the streets.  

 

 

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F250

F250 28,774

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16 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

And for those that don't hate Pete but just question his experience, a little boy mayor just beat the shit out of 2 term VP in Iowa. His organization, discipline, and overall strategy is impressive.

He would kick the shit out of Trump in the general election if enough Democrats got behind him.

This is the take away I got from the Iowa caucus. Pete doesn't fuck around and will more than push back against Trump and Republican shenanigans in the General.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105,136

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29 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I am leaning toward "top line blank" if there is DNC funny business. My Texas vote doesn't matter, and even if it did, if it would go to Bloomberg instead of Trump, it would simply be a vote for style over substance in many of the most tangible ways. 

At some point they have to learn that they can't keep ramming do-nothing candidates down our throats. If that leads to a second Trump term this time around, so be it: it might hasten us all getting off our asses and out in the streets.  

 

 

Like you'll be allowed access to streets after the third Trump term.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18,856

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3 minutes ago, F250 said:

This is the take away I got from the Iowa caucus. Pete doesn't fuck around and will more than push back against Trump and Republican shenanigans in the General.

Pete Buttigieg can get bent.

Having said that, if he's the nominee, I'll vote for him. I don't like him and I won't like voting for him, but I'll do it.

I don't think he has any hope of winning the nomination. 

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4,667

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1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Pete Buttigieg can get bent.

Having said that, if he's the nominee, I'll vote for him. I don't like him and I won't like voting for him, but I'll do it.

I don't think he has any hope of winning the nomination. 

I think he's got a great chance.

Tonight I'm going to grease the preacher and have the little holy feller enter the narthex if you know what I mean and I think you do.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 18,856

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1 minute ago, tantric superman said:

I think he's got a great chance.

Tonight I'm going to grease the preacher and have the little holy feller enter the narthex if you know what I mean and I think you do.

When the left wing knives really come out about his work at McKinsey and his neoliberal bona fides, he's done in my opinion. That part of his background is why I dislike him so much.

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tantric superman

tantric superman 4,667

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4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Unless something really radical happens like Bloomberg running a third party or the Russians stealing it for trump again,  which is always possible, it’s gonna be Bernie or Biden and either one will beat trump handily. Looking like it’s trending Bernie. 

I'd love to see Bernie win it all.

But none of us are going to see Bernie win it all.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15,050

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I try to keep up with this thread. And I’ve also tried to digest the perspectives of DD and BT and others who passionately support progressive democrats. I believe people like me are the swing vote that will decide the election. I’m not a Republican or a Democrat. I’m searching for common sense.

Right now I’m extremely concerned that Sanders or Warren can’t beat Trump. The progressive message is “scary” - a lot of change, a lot of “free stuff” being promised. In a deep policy analysis maybe the progressive agenda is actually the most sound policy. Unfortunately, to garner support for significant change you have to have pretty strong arguments. Right now, the progressive argument is being weakened by: A) how do we afford this, and B) where is individual responsibility in this whole equation?

Until those questions are answered in a way that people can get behind, I worry we are staring at four more years of Trump.

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Walden Ponderer

Walden Ponderer 12,639

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4 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Poll on RCP in Nawf Carolina has Bloomberg at a close 4th with Biden barely in first.  That makes me think the black vote is bailing on Joe.

Granted, I'm living in Bernie-central ("The Zoo" as Jesse Helms famously called it), but I have seen exactly one Bloomberg bumpersticker, and one Bloomberg yard sign, and they not surprisingly were on a car and house owned by the same person. I've seen and heard zero people who are excited about Joe.

Anecdotal, sure, but it's what I'm seeing.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,195

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21 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Unfortunately, to garner support for significant change you have to have pretty strong arguments. Right now, the progressive argument is being weakened by: A) how do we afford this, and B) where is individual responsibility in this whole equation?

A) We already spend insane amounts of money for relatively little return. The money is already flowing out. This is like someone leasing a Mercedes asking, "How can I afford to buy that Toyota instead?"

The problem, obviously, is the right-wing lie framework and that's what we need to break. Bernie is uniquely strong in this because he does not bend to that framing; he fights back. It's a hard job because the entire right-wing and most of the center will be baying for his blood, but once you explain these things to people and show them the lie they've been told, they often respond.

And for millions of voters under 40, you don't even have to explain it. They're already there.

B) The "HAVE SOME PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY!" thing is actually extremely anti-social and most people don't actually think of themselves as mean and hostile. So what you can do is present that frame as mean and follow with, "...and I know you're not like that at all." so you're just rhetorically putting them on your team in a way they won't disagree with.

It's a mean-spirited right-wing frame. So the first thing you do is refuse to accept that frame and fight back against it. Not everyone thinks of things in terms of cheeto-eating welfare queens.

But to win this you simply humanize each social program, which is something the right tries to avoid at all cost. Where they dehumanize the needy, we humanize them.

Also, it's extremely ignorant, so for those who think they're smart you can just argue around them. Although these types aren't convinceable. But we don't need 75%, we only need 51% on each side of Congress.

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Until those questions are answered in a way that people can get behind, I worry we are staring at four more years of Trump.

I mean this very seriously and sincerely: You need to get over yourself.

You are not the axis around which the earth turns. I don't say that to be insulting, but to try and break a delusion that you are holding onto very strongly. The American voters, in 2016, thought Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the people who should be competing for the presidency. You and I both know that's insane, but that's what the voters decided.

Stop confusing yourself for the mythical swing that needs to be won over.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31,468

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39 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I try to keep up with this thread. And I’ve also tried to digest the perspectives of DD and BT and others who passionately support progressive democrats. I believe people like me are the swing vote that will decide the election. I’m not a Republican or a Democrat. I’m searching for common sense.

Right now I’m extremely concerned that Sanders or Warren can’t beat Trump. The progressive message is “scary” - a lot of change, a lot of “free stuff” being promised. In a deep policy analysis maybe the progressive agenda is actually the most sound policy. Unfortunately, to garner support for significant change you have to have pretty strong arguments. Right now, the progressive argument is being weakened by: A) how do we afford this, and B) where is individual responsibility in this whole equation?

Until those questions are answered in a way that people can get behind, I worry we are staring at four more years of Trump.

Well, at least Liz has a plan to pay for most of her shit.  

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15,050

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I mean this very seriously and sincerely: You need to get over yourself.
You are not the axis around which the earth turns. I don't say that to be insulting, but to try and break a delusion that you are holding onto very strongly. The American voters, in 2016, thought Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the people who should be competing for the presidency. You and I both know that's insane, but that's what the voters decided.
Stop confusing yourself for the mythical swing that needs to be won over.


Your lack of self awareness is comical. You are considered a fringe nut case by most voters. I actually believe some of the Bernie causes have serious merit, but half of this country or more sees you all as nut cases because you haven’t done a good enough job of advocating for your policies.

I hate to be the one to show you reality, but that is just the way it is. You have a bunch of 29 and under naive desperate voters with you, and maybe that will be enough to win, but if you really want to be sure of winning, I’ve told you the problem. It has nothing to do with me personally. It has everything to do with your inability to perceive reality.
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13,195

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Just now, Dbeasy said:

Your lack of self awareness is comical. You are considered a fringe nut case by most voters. I actually believe some of the Bernie causes have serious merit, but half of this country or more sees you all as nut cases because you haven’t done a good enough job of advocating for your policies.

 

I speak for myself and I don't pretend otherwise. You would be wise to realize that you speak only for yourself.

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I hate to be the one to show you reality, but that is just the way it is.

This isn't showing me reality, this is you just saying, "I'm right, and you know I'm right because I say I'm right." It's not a common delusion people have, of course, as tautology one of the most common logical fallacies in the world.

Quote

You have a bunch of 29 and under naive desperate voters with you, and maybe that will be enough to win, but if you really want to be sure of winning, I’ve told you the problem.

You've told me what you think the problem is, yes.

The statistics, of course, say otherwise. Bernie just won Iowa. When people were making their first choice, he got 6k more votes than the more moderate Pete Buttigieg. He got 16k more than the supposed moderate frontrunner Joe Biden.

He won the votes.

He wins head-to-head polls against Trump.

He is the most popular Senator in the United States. He's the most popular POLITICIAN in the United States.

He is running laps around all of his opponents in both individual donors and volunteers.

He is a tremendously popular and well-liked politician. You don't like him, and because you suffer from delusions of centrality in all of life's processes, you think that means no one likes him. (Very Hillary of you, in fact.)

This stuff will all make a lot more sense to you if you break yourself of that delusion.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15,050

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To clarify, I’m talking about the group of voters in the middle, who don’t identify as Republicans or Democrats. These are the people who will decide this election. That block of voters could be anywhere from 5-15% of the population, but they are the ones who decide, just like in 2016.

It doesn’t matter that you have 40 or 45% of the population supporting you. There is another 40-45% of the population right now that opposes you. Only by winning over a majority of the 5-15% do you take over the government. I simply do not believe that today there are enough democrats to take over. There might be in 4-8 years but not this year.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12,271

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I try to keep up with this thread. And I’ve also tried to digest the perspectives of DD and BT and others who passionately support progressive democrats. I believe people like me are the swing vote that will decide the election. I’m not a Republican or a Democrat. I’m searching for common sense.

Right now I’m extremely concerned that Sanders or Warren can’t beat Trump. The progressive message is “scary” - a lot of change, a lot of “free stuff” being promised. In a deep policy analysis maybe the progressive agenda is actually the most sound policy. Unfortunately, to garner support for significant change you have to have pretty strong arguments. Right now, the progressive argument is being weakened by: A) how do we afford this, and B) where is individual responsibility in this whole equation?

Until those questions are answered in a way that people can get behind, I worry we are staring at four more years of Trump.

If you want a dem to win, then you’re worrying too much.

For quite some time now, people don’t vote for a candidate, they vote against one.

When the republicans are fired up, they win. See 2010 Obama. When the dems are fired up, they win. See 2018 trump.

When both sides are fired up, the dems win. Because there are more of them. See 2008, 2012, and eventually 2020.

As long as the dems don’t nominate Hillary again, they win.

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8,349

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Posted
1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Hillary criticizing Bernie actually helps him. 

Yeah, if Hillary really wanted to fuck with Bernie she would come out and endorse him.

"I, Hillary Rodham Clinton, endorse Bernie Sanders for the presidency."

Not kidding, there is no single utterance in the English language that would do more to completely derail Bernie's campaign.

Luckily, her ego is titanic and she is not as smart as she thinks, so she won't.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,191

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3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

If you want a dem to win, then you’re worrying too much.

For quite some time know, people don’t vote for a candidate, they vote against one.

When the republicans are fired up, they win. See 2010 Obama. When the dems are fired up, they win. See 2018 trump.

When both sides are fired up, the dems win. Because there are more of them. See 2008, 2012, and eventually 2020.

As long as the dems don’t nominate Hillary again, they win.

the popular vote is not the issue here, dude.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15,050

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Posted
You've told me what you think the problem is, yes.
The statistics, of course, say otherwise. Bernie just won Iowa. When people were making their first choice, he got 6k more votes than the more moderate Pete Buttigieg. He got 16k more than the supposed moderate frontrunner Joe Biden.
He won the votes.
He wins head-to-head polls against Trump.
He is the most popular Senator in the United States. He's the most popular POLITICIAN in the United States.
He is running laps around all of his opponents in both individual donors and volunteers.
He is a tremendously popular and well-liked politician. You don't like him, and because you suffer from delusions of centrality in all of life's processes, you think that means no one likes him. (Very Hillary of you, in fact.)
This stuff will all make a lot more sense to you if you break yourself of that delusion.


Actually I like a lot of what he stands for. But it took me doing extensive research to figure that out. Most voters are too lazy to research it.
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Message Board User

Message Board User 12,395

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11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

To clarify, I’m talking about the group of voters in the middle, who don’t identify as Republicans or Democrats. These are the people who will decide this election. That block of voters could be anywhere from 5-15% of the population, but they are the ones who decide, just like in 2016.

It doesn’t matter that you have 40 or 45% of the population supporting you. There is another 40-45% of the population right now that opposes you. Only by winning over a majority of the 5-15% do you take over the government. I simply do not believe that today there are enough democrats to take over. There might be in 4-8 years but not this year.

I read this article today and thought it was, at the very least, food for thought.  

This woman's theory - voters are motivated more by negative partisanship (beating the other side) than anything else these days and it's all about which base is more motivated.

 

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