2020 Democratic Nominee

[henrygandorf 29,228]

pete polling ahead of warren in sc is...crazy.

[Js1 87,265]

6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Thanks Cali. 

So, since 2/2 in SC - 

Biden 28% (-9 since 2/2)

Sanders 20% (+6)

Steyer 14% (-5)

Buttigieg 8% (+4)

Klobuchar 7% (+5)

Warren 7% (-2)

Bloomberg 6% (+5)

Gabbard 1% (-1)

Except Bloomberg's 6% doesn't count, he's not on the ballot.  

[Js1 87,265]

8 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

On 538's primary model, "nobody wins a majority of delegates" just passed Sanders.  Highest probability so far of a contested convention.

AWWWWWWWW YEAH

DNC 2020 gonna be 1968 but worse. 

[Js1 87,265]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

pete polling ahead of warren in sc is...crazy.

[Huckleberry 34,726]

54 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

 

 

Biden hanging on

(Is me posting all these polls annoying? I'll stop if it is)

*my

And no, that's not annoying. But my grammar correction is. Hope this helps you see the difference between helpful and annoying posts.

[GSU&UT 1,799]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Except Bloomberg's 6% doesn't count, he's not on the ballot.  

He isn't but that doesn't mean they can't write him in. I doubt 6% of voters do that though, I'd agree.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Except Bloomberg's 6% doesn't count, he's not on the ballot.  

No write in possible?

[washparkhorn 9,974]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

AWWWWWWWW YEAH

DNC 2020 gonna be 1968 but worse. 

Maybe. But 2008 set the standards for protest. Denver built cages as designated protest areas. And we know the billionaire sycophant protestors will not go anywhere without VIP Only entrances. 

2008 was the year of this:

 

https://www.zimbio.com/Democratic+National+Convention+2008/articles/31/Photos+DNC+Protesters+Police

 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

1 minute ago, GSU&UT said:

He isn't but that doesn't mean they can't write him in. I doubt 6% of voters do that though, I'd agree.

South Carolina doesn't even allow write-ins, so a not statistically insignificant part of the electorate is a complete wild card.

[Js1 87,265]

Just now, washparkhorn said:

Maybe. But 2008 set the standards for protest. Denver built cages as designated protest areas. And we know the billionaire sycophant protestors will not go anywhere without VIP Only entrances. 

2008 was the year of this:

 

https://www.zimbio.com/Democratic+National+Convention+2008/articles/31/Photos+DNC+Protesters+Police

 

2008 wasn't a contested convention. 

[heso 2,863]

10 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

On 538's primary model, "nobody wins a majority of delegates" just passed Sanders.  Highest probability so far of a contested convention.

The main factor will be when people drop out and where those votes go when they do. Their predictor has everyone staying in the race to the end. I think at least a couple drop out after Super Tuesday. Their model also massively underestimated Klobuchar in NH. It projected her 5th with 1 delegate. It was reasonably accurate with Bernie and Pete (avg projection of 11 and 9 delegates). 

[Hank Scorpio 17,924]

 

[bad_teammate 13,566]

The hope is that as people drop out that voters for the drop-outs go to the delegate leader. That's my hope, at least.

If we are going to have a peaceful, unified convention, a clear leader is the best way to get there. If we can't get a first-ballot majority, then a 10+ point plurality then a 2nd round coronation is the next best thing.

[heso 2,863]

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

The hope is that as people drop out that voters for the drop-outs go to the delegate leader. That's my hope, at least.

If we are going to have a peaceful, unified convention, a clear leader is the best way to get there. If we can't get a first-ballot majority, then a 10+ point plurality then a 2nd round coronation is the next best thing.

I think a lot of it depends on who drops out and when. I think when Biden and Steyer drop the bulk of their votes go to Bloomberg. 

The big wildcard will be how Warren and Klobs fare up to and on Super Tuesday. I think whenever one of them drops the votes go to the other and where they go from there depends on which one drops first. 

I think we’re going to have a 3 horse race between Bernie, Bloomberg, and Pete. 

Edited February 14, 2020 by heso

[washparkhorn 9,974]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2008 wasn't a contested convention. 

You are correct. I buried the larger point: Security in Milwaukee, like Denver in 2008, will be overwhelming. 

Take a look at the security "footprint" for the Convention here: https://www.tmj4.com/news/democratic-national-convention/preliminary-downtown-security-boundaries-released-for-2020-democratic-national-convention

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by washparkhorn

[Js1 87,265]

6 minutes ago, heso said:

I think we’re going to have a 3 horse race between Bernie, Bloomberg, and Pete. 

[Biff Tannen 46,197]

31 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

pete polling ahead of warren in sc is...crazy.

[elfenix 34,763]

2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

I would like Peter Paul Buttigieg to speak to his supporters about this abusive and inconsiderate behavior.

#DoBetter

parking like a douchebag thread is thataway

[Aqua Buddha 14,808]

48 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

On 538's primary model, "nobody wins a majority of delegates" just passed Sanders.  Highest probability so far of a contested convention.

I think I'll overdose if that happens.

[Js1 87,265]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

I think I'll overdose if that happens.

Exactly what 2020 deserves.  Most unpopular president in history and the Dems running around like idiots. 

You love to see it . 

[Aqua Buddha 14,808]

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

 

 

Biden hanging on

(Is me posting all these polls annoying? I'll stop if it is)

Old habits die hard, I guess.  I'll be surprised if it shakes out that way, but who knows?  Like someone else said, surprised Pete is up to 8%.  If Warren finishes in mid single digits, I think she'll drop out.  I know Steyer has spent a bunch of money in SC so there's that.

Bernie needs to start polling better, quite frankly.  He has these two wins that we're told are momentous but I don't think I've seen him over 30% in any state poll at this point.  (He was at 10% in that Florida poll from earlier.)  20% in SC really isn't that impressive considering what has been going on.

[Aqua Buddha 14,808]

In case you don't already know, a contested convention means they can nominate whoever they want and it doesn't have to be any of these people.

[Js1 87,265]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

Bernie needs to start polling better, quite frankly.  He has these two wins that we're told are momentous but I don't think I've seen him over 30% in any state poll at this point.  (He was at 10% in that Florida poll from earlier.)  20% in SC really isn't that impressive considering what has been going on.

I agree with this.

He finished at 26% in 2016 in South Carolina.  20% in the next major primary state as the "front runner of the race" looks bad.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

In case you don't already know, a contested convention means they can nominate whoever they want and it doesn't have to be any of these people.

HILLARY 2020 BABY

[Pasken 1,312]

Seems like the next candidate most likely to withdraw is Warren but seems like if you stay in until South Carolina then you might as well stay in until Super Tuesday. 

[Js1 87,265]

5 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Seems like the next candidate most likely to withdraw is Warren but seems like if you stay in until South Carolina then you might as well stay in until Super Tuesday. 

Mass. is on Super Tuesday.  She's going to hope for a home state win.  Same with Klobs - Minnesota is on Super Tuesday. 

[heso 2,863]

3 minutes ago, Pasken said:

Seems like the next candidate most likely to withdraw is Warren but seems like if you stay in until South Carolina then you might as well stay in until Super Tuesday. 

I expect everyone that’s made it this far is in until Super Tuesday. Warren could drop if the rumors are true that the campaign is running out of cash. It’s going to take a lot of money to compete in those states. I saw a graphic the other day that I think said Bloomberg has already spent $150 million in Super Tuesday states. Steyer was north of $20 million. Everyone else very little to none. Bernie has plenty of money and the momentum. Biden will be in the fight unless he gets waxed in SC. 

super Tuesday is where we’ll find out if Pete and Klobs are for real or just products of good campaigning in the early states. 

[GSU&UT 1,799]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Mass. is on Super Tuesday.  She's going to hope for a home state win.  Same with Klobs - Minnesota is on Super Tuesday. 

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

[JimmyJames 12,271]

3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

Yep. I don’t see Klobs or Warren in the race by Super Tuesday. 

[heso 2,863]

4 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

She still has a 7 point lead in Mass. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,808]

35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I agree with this.

He finished at 26% in 2016 in South Carolina.  20% in the next major primary state as the "front runner of the race" looks bad.

Went out and looked and his poll numbers in three states:

GA -- 14%

FL -- 10%

SC -- 20%

Those are terrible for a supposed front runner.  So far his poll numbers landed about where his actual vote total came in so it's nothing to discount.  He's not turning out anyone.  There is increased turnout in some cases but it's going to other candidates.

I still think a lot of Biden's support is flimsy, so who knows.....

[Js1 87,265]

14 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

Isn't the idea that you don't want to lose your home state and possibly hurt your senate re-election chances?

Both were just re-elected in 2018.  Plenty PLENTY of time to get right with their voters before 2024. 

[GSU&UT 1,799]

46 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Went out and looked and his poll numbers in three states:

GA -- 14%

FL -- 10%

SC -- 20%

Those are terrible for a supposed front runner.  So far his poll numbers landed about where his actual vote total came in so it's nothing to discount.  He's not turning out anyone.  There is increased turnout in some cases but it's going to other candidates.

I still think a lot of Biden's support is flimsy, so who knows.....

GA and FL are both over a month away. No one's numbers are good there at this point, Bloomberg's are arguably inflated, Biden is in a death spiral, and freaking Pete and Amy are even lower. Why do you keep acting like he needs to be leading in every state? Do you not understand there will be moment in a primary this crowded?

[Pasken 1,312]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Yep. I don’t see Klobs or Warren in the race by Super Tuesday. 

Klobs will def be in the race on Super Tuesday. She isn't out of money and has momentum.  So you see Warren dropping out after Nevada next Saturday?

 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Just now, Pasken said:

Klobs will def be in the race on Super Tuesday. She isn't out of money and has momentum.  So you see Warren dropping out after Nevada next Saturday?

 

All I’m saying is there’s a political risk to not winning your own state. So long as they’re willing to take that risk, they’ll stay in.

[Hank Scorpio 17,924]

My dream is that Bernie wins the nomination with a plurality of the vote and is picked at the convention because the bros bum rush the stage and take over and then in the general Trump wins the popular vote but Bernie wins the electoral college. 

[Pasken 1,312]

8 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

My dream is that Bernie wins the nomination with a plurality of the vote and is picked at the convention because the bros bum rush the stage and take over and then in the general Trump wins the popular vote but Bernie wins the electoral college. 

How do you think Trump would spin it if he won the popular vote but lost the electoral college? He would def try to stay president. 

[henrygandorf 29,228]

1 minute ago, Pasken said:

How do you think Trump would spin it if he won the popular vote but lost the electoral college? He would def try to stay president. 

trump will lose both the popular vote and the electoral college and still try to stay president.

[WBT 20,997]

Who the fuck does fivethirtyeight think their readers are that they can't understand percentages?  2nd graders?  Their primary model on the front page right now shows a 2 in 5 chance that no one wins a majority of delegates and a 1 in 3 chance that Sanders wins a majority.  That would imply 40% and 33 1/3%.  But when you click through to the actual percentages, it's 37% to 36%.  Silver gets some strange ideas sometime.

[bad_teammate 13,566]

[Bama Chick 28,596]

In case you don't already know, a contested convention means they can nominate whoever they want and it doesn't have to be any of these people.

Oprah gonna roll in big boss style and save us all from ourselves.

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

Americans are pretty retarded these days. Makes me worried.

[staboner 5,098]

4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

trump will lose both the popular vote and the electoral college and still try to stay president.

i would examine your word "lose" there. that implies clarity and I don't see anything but confusion across the board. And confusion is where the soulless will leap to control, which is what Trump obv is. 

semantics, i know

Edited February 15, 2020 by staboner

[Biff Tannen 46,197]

I would like to correct my statement from earlier regarding the Pod Save America guys. They said if Bernie wins California he’s basically a lock. Not South Carolina and Nevada. That’s all. 

[TexArcher 39,075]

5 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

trump will lose both the popular vote and the electoral college and still try to stay president.

Trump isn't going quietly no matter what.

I'm beginning to think that all of this hand-wringing over which Democrat should win the nomination is wasted time, because it's not going to be a straight election.  They'll suppress as many voters as they can.  And he'll have help from Russia again.  If the early election night results aren't going his way, there will be problems counting votes.  A recount will definitely be needed.  Hell, Florida's got a Republican governor if they need to play that card again.

Trump will try to con enough people, with help from Russia, again, and if that doesn't work, he'll just steal the damned thing.  Who's going to stop him?

Edited February 15, 2020 by TexArcher

[Biff Tannen 46,197]

11 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Trump isn't going quietly no matter what.

I'm beginning to think that all of this hand-wringing over which Democrat should win the nomination is wasted time, because it's not going to be a straight election.  They'll suppress as many voters as they can.  And he'll have help from Russia again.  If the early election night results aren't going his way, there will be problems counting votes.  A recount will definitely be needed.  Hell, Florida's got a Republican governor if they need to play that card again.

Trump will try to con enough people, with help from Russia, again, and if that doesn't work, he'll just steal the damned thing.  Who's going to stop him?

All correct. But add Saudi Arabia and Israel, at least, to that interference list. 

[RayDog 682]

8 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

trump will lose both the popular vote and the electoral college and still try to stay president.

He will use the covid-19 virus outbreak as an excuse to cancel elections and make himself president for life.

[Zonahorn 8,079]

Death, taxes, liberals being nihilistic and depressed 

[Bruh Man 3,160]

It's embarrassing and insulting watching these stiffs on MSNBC/CNN pivot so hard to Bloomberg. Manhattan/Georgetown swamp creatures like Gloria Borger & Richard Stengel are twisting themselves in knots trying to normalize his campaign. I'm actually embarrassed for them.

Edited February 15, 2020 by Bruh Man

[bad_teammate 13,566]

Death, taxes, liberals being nihilistic and depressed 

It is easy for someone to feel helpless when they are an aimless spectator with only negative goals and unclear guiding principles.

This is going to be especially deadly when a delegate leader is clear and tens of thousands of liberals still sit on their hands and cry.