2020 Democratic Nominee

[Bama Chick 28596]

For once I’m glad we don’t have early voting in Alabama.

Been a whole lot of shifting going on in just the last ten days.

Still haven’t decided who I’m voting for.

Heart - Warren
Heart/Head/Pity - Klobuchar
Head/Cynical calculation because he’s winning here - Biden

Game time decision I guess.

[6th Street 6404]

18 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

I'm in SF for the week - just saw a Warren ad followed up by a Steyer ad. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Pushing that bullshit narrative that if Bernie doesn’t win then it’s all rigged.

Be interesting to see if the Sanders camp keeps pushing the plurality talking point after Super Tuesday.

[washparkhorn 9939]

Dems need to be careful allowing Trump to set the narrative - in the primaries and in the general election. He wins when people take the bait. And then he resets the narrative the very next day - never allowing Democrats to set their own narrative. 

He is sowing discord. His opinion on the Democratic race is irrelevant. Ignore him if you are able. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Problem is the media follows every tweet and horseshit thing his mouth spews.

Then CNN and MSNBC take his bullshittery and convene a panel to discuss the primary using his narrative as a jumping off point.

Then everyone forgets the dumb point was started by Trump and the conversation continues.


In other depressing and ridiculous news -

[henrygandorf 29191]

6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

He is sowing discord. His opinion on the Democratic race is irrelevant. Ignore him if you are able. 

pretty sad that the russians and trump have the same exact agenda with regards to the american election.

[washparkhorn 9939]

3 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Problem is the media follows every tweet and horseshit thing his mouth spews.

Then CNN and MSNBC take his bullshittery and convene a panel to discuss the primary using his narrative as a jumping off point.

Then everyone forgets the dumb point was started by Trump and the conversation continues.


In other depressing and ridiculous news -
 

 

I apologize - not directed at you at all. Some people understand Trump's one strategy (controlling the narrative). Most do not.

Here we talk about everything - as we should. Trump has an enthusiasm issue and is trying to tamp down enthusiasm in the Democratic race. He projects. His political game is weak in general (your results certainly vary as you may be in the reddest of red states). But have little doubt - he cannot stand to be ignored. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

pretty sad that the russians and trump have the same exact agenda with regards to the american election.

There is no doubt Putin's greatest ambition is to start a literal civil war in the United States. 

[Bruh Man 3160]

48 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 

 

The fact that we're relying on a couple of 70+ year olds to save this country is a depressing thought. Bernie looked really bad yesterday at his rally in NC, Biden always looks/sounds terrible but Bernie's health really concerns me.

It just reminds how perplexing it is to me that people like Stacey Abrams, Sherrod Brown and Mayor Landrieu decided not to enter the race. I think all of them would have been really successful if they had showed some damn ambition and hopped in the water. Gen X (pols) have been a total letdown this cycle.

[6th Street 6404]

27 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

The fact that we're relying on a couple of 70+ year olds to save this country is a depressing thought. Bernie looked really bad yesterday at his rally in NC, Biden always looks/sounds terrible but Bernie's health really concerns me.

It just reminds how perplexing it is to me that people like Stacey Abrams, Sherrod Brown and Mayor Landrieu decided not to enter the race. I think all of them would have been really successful if they had showed some damn ambition and hopped in the water. Gen X (pols) have been a total letdown this cycle.

Cory Booker entered and did nothing, and nobody even knew Deval Patrick was running.  

[washparkhorn 9939]

57 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

pretty sad that the russians and trump have the same exact agenda with regards to the american election.

This is just a suggestion - the Russian narrative needs to be reframed in order to be effective. Perhaps enhancing a perspective of why Russia wants civil war in this nation and how damaged the institutions of our country have become - in the wake of 2016 (which exposed the weaknesses) and in the lead up to 2016 (which goes back to Bush I/Clinton/Bush II/Obama). The whole "Trump is illegitimate" only feeds Trump (and the Russian's) disinformation efforts. That election was fraught with political malpractice in the Republican Party first and the Democratic Party next. Obviously, if you are one of the candidates or advisors who committed political malpractice, you want the focus on something other than your own malpractice. It's blame shifting. Unfortunately, most people get "fired" for malpractice, but instead they drive CNN/MSNBC/Fox/NYT/WP's narrative to this day. And frankly, outside of DC and suburbia - the current Russia narrative is impotent to Trump's defenses. We lose on that issue. That does not mean he gets a pass in this election. That attack needs to remain in play and vibrant to keep Trump occupied and on defense. But he has won that battle - for now.

Americans are extremely bipartisan on the issue of government corruption. This is now Trump's government and he has created his own Swamp - which is not what he promised his voters. It's not Ukraine. It's not emoluments. It is the CDC - what Trump did to gut that agency because he never thought people like him would ever need the CDC. People will die from this outbreak and his malfeasance may be responsible. I hope not. I hope the good people at the CDC are doing their job to the best of their abilities. But Trump shut down portions of the CDC. There is no institution there because of Trump's policies (or the policies of those running his operations). That is criminal. He knows as a billionaire and President, he will have the best medical treatment in the world. That is not the case for 99% of us. His judgment is not sound for 99% of us - and the 99% includes every portion of Trump's grassroots base. 

He is beatable, but we need fresh and real facts to show he does not deserve a second term. 

Normalcy is gone. Trump has hurt people. He has damaged institutions. A "return to normalcy" does not sell in those communities most vulnerable before and after Trump's election. He has scrambled society and new coalitions have formed in the wake of Trump's damage. They should be celebrated -- not marginalized. And the most vulnerable see bullshit and lip service as more of the same. Democrats cannot afford to be there. 

We live in interesting time. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

38 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

The fact that we're relying on a couple of 70+ year olds to save this country is a depressing thought. Bernie looked really bad yesterday at his rally in NC, Biden always looks/sounds terrible but Bernie's health really concerns me.

Sanders spoke to a huge crowd tonight and looked great. You should check it out. But I appreciate your concern . . . 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14596]

So, now Biden is the new great hope but never mind he got 8% in NH and is about to lose a bunch of states on Tuesday.

[Fozzz 152]

10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

So, now Biden is the new great hope but never mind he got 8% in NH and is about to lose a bunch of states on Tuesday.

Dems pinning their hopes on a mentally retarded segregationalist is peak Democratic Party. 

[Dnaguy 11964]

19 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Dems pinning their hopes on a mentally retarded segregationalist is peak Democratic Party. 

As opposed to a big spending, gun loving communist who’s not even a democrat?

[bad_teammate 13195]

As opposed to a big spending, gun loving communist who’s not even a democrat?

This is a personal attack against me and it rules.

[DigglerontheHoof 21199]

The ineptness of the Dem,s, in the form of this weak-ass field, is amazing.  We have the worst potus in our nation's history up for re-election and the dems are completely shitting the bed.  

Ledge will get more and more crowded. 

[Red Five 40858]

The major fuckup was Warren. She should be the nominee. 

[Hank Kingsley 20940]

 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

The major fuckup was Warren. She should be the nominee. 

The lack of enthusiasm for Warren combined with Kamala (and Booker to a lesser extent) never gaining any traction will be something historians study for years to come.  There were so many solid potential "compromise" candidates, yet here we are.

[Fozzz 152]

lmao

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Sounds like quite a few phone calls were made over the weekend by the Big Cigars. Time for the Bernie Squeeze.

[bad_teammate 13195]

18 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

The ineptness of the Dem,s, in the form of this weak-ass field, is amazing.  We have the worst potus in our nation's history up for re-election and the dems are completely shitting the bed. 

There's a hugely popular candidate who is breaking record after record for turnout, volunteers, and grassroots fundraising. He won the popular vote in the first 3 states, is favored in most of Super Tuesday, and finished a clear 2nd in the most demographically-disadvantageous state imaginable for him. He is very unlikely to finish below 2nd in ANY primary or caucus.

Seems pretty strong to me.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

There's a hugely popular candidate who is breaking record after record for turnout, volunteers, and grassroots fundraising. He won the popular vote in the first 3 states, is favored in most of Super Tuesday, and finished a clear 2nd in the most demographically-disadvantageous state imaginable for him. He is very unlikely to finish below 2nd in ANY primary or caucus.

Seems pretty strong to me.

But the party wants Joe. That's pretty clear at this point. The weekend news shows were fed talking points about "momentum" and they ran with it.

[bad_teammate 13195]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

But the party wants Joe. That's pretty clear at this point. The weekend news shows were fed talking points about "momentum" and they ran with it.

Sure, the party wants to lose and keep their existing power structure as an opposition party, but we don't have to let them do that. We can force their hand, and we should.

[Guest Lobo]

3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

There's a hugely popular candidate who is breaking record after record for turnout, volunteers, and grassroots fundraising. He won the popular vote in the first 3 states, is favored in most of Super Tuesday, and finished a clear 2nd in the most demographically-disadvantageous state imaginable for him. He is very unlikely to finish below 2nd in ANY primary or caucus.

Seems pretty strong to me.

All that matters is can Bernie defeat Trump in Ohio, Florida, AND Pennsylvania.  You'll forgive some folks if they're not 100% convinced of this.  

Out of curiosity, who are Bernie's 5 largest donors?  

[bad_teammate 13195]

Just now, Lobo said:

All that matters is can Bernie defeat Trump in Ohio, Florida, AND Pennsylvania.  You'll forgive some folks if they're not 100% convinced of this.

We don't need Ohio and Florida. We need Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Ohio and Florida are cake-toppers.

Quote

Out of curiosity, who are Bernie's 5 largest donors?  

No idea, enlighten me.

[Guest Lobo]

I have no idea, I asked you because you seem like a big Bernie fan that would have ready access to that information.  I don't feel like looking it up.  

[bad_teammate 13195]

Just now, Lobo said:

I have no idea, I asked you because you seem like a big Bernie fan that would have ready access to that information.  I don't feel like looking it up.  

Oh, just seemed like a very specific question like you were setting up a zinger.

I'm eager for any dirt on my man Bernardo

[Bruh Man 3160]

Random question I guess for someone who has worked on a campaign before -

How does the accuracy of internal polling campaigns conduct compare to the accuracy of the polling down by some of the public pollsters we get all the time (Quinnipac, Emerson, etc.)?

 

[Jhawk 1075]

13 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

There's a hugely popular candidate who is breaking record after record for turnout, volunteers, and grassroots fundraising. He won the popular vote in the first 3 states, is favored in most of Super Tuesday, and finished a clear 2nd in the most demographically-disadvantageous state imaginable for him. He is very unlikely to finish below 2nd in ANY primary or caucus.

Seems pretty strong to me.

And yet some double digit percentage of dems say they won't support bernie in the general.  That is a losing formula and thus a weak candidate when the enthusiasm on the right is going to be very high.

10 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

 

 

Pushing that bullshit narrative that if Bernie doesn’t win then it’s all rigged.

Be interesting to see if the Sanders camp keeps pushing the plurality talking point after Super Tuesday.

 

But is it bullshit?  His nomination was basically stolen from him last time.  His supporters were convinced of it last time.  This time he is saying the rules should change because they are unfair.  His supporters believe this to be true.  If he loses at a contested convention then do you think it is the orange man that is going to be setting the narrative that the dems stole the nomination from him or the rhetoric that the process is unfair and the fact that the process set in place for the DNC is what it is?  No amount of the don setting a cheating narrative changes the rules on how the dems do things.  If they go to a contested convention it isn't donald that will make bernie lose the nomination.  It is the dem powers that be.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

29 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

And is that your VP candidate?

[Brisketexan 105139]

14 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

But the party wants Joe. That's pretty clear at this point. The weekend news shows were fed talking points about "momentum" and they ran with it.

You know, the "the party is out to get Bernie" shit gets kind of old.  Bernie is a pretty polarizing, stand-alone candidate -- he gets the young, very progressive vote.  But there are a lot of people (people, not some sinister behind-the-scenes machine) who have voted "not Bernie."

Not Bernie got 60% in Nevada.  Nationwide, "Not Bernie" is polling at over 65% among Dem primary voters.  As the field winnows, we're going to find out how many of the "Not Bernie" voters become "ok, Bernie" voters.  But that will almost certainly be a function of people voting, not some secret plot hatched by the ebil DNC in a volcanic lair.  The Bernie crowd is already prepping their sour grapes, as well as their narrative for why the DNC is bad and evil, and darnit, we'll just have to stay home to punish them (and thus help re-elect Trump).  Indeed, the Bernie crowd is following the predicted script pretty well thus far.

[bad_teammate 13195]

2 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Random question I guess for someone who has worked on a campaign before -

How does the accuracy of internal polling campaigns conduct compare to the accuracy of the polling down by some of the public pollsters we get all the time (Quinnipac, Emerson, etc.)?

Internal polls are usually worse as far as accuracy, but they don't really serve the same purpose as public polling. When you're doing an internal poll you're looking for very specific indicators. A campaign might, for instance, target a poll to one county, get 100 respondents, and use that for internal decision-making by extrapolating that county's data. Not useful or scientific enough for a public poll, but good enough to make money-spending decisions (ads, hiring, staffing).

Polls you end up seeing are leaked on purpose because they were commissioned with the purpose of creating the best possible reasonable result for the candidate. Those are just propaganda.

From our perspective as Joe Blows, just ignore every internal poll that leaks and you'll wind up to the good.

[bad_teammate 13195]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

You know, the "the party is out to get Bernie" shit gets kind of old.

The reality of what is happening is obvious and if your complaint is that you don't like people speaking the truth out loud then you need to stop paying attention.

There is one mass popular movement candidate and those who were unable to match that are teaming up with their fellows against the massive grassroots candidate. It's happening. As long as its happening, people are going to say its happening.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know, the "the party is out to get Bernie" shit gets kind of old.

I get that, but it sure feels like we went from Bernie is the clear front runner to The Biden Momentum Surge overnight. If you don't think there are higher-ups in the party pushing this narrative, you are fooling yourself.

[David Dennison 18860]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You know, the "the party is out to get Bernie" shit gets kind of old.  Bernie is a pretty polarizing, stand-alone candidate -- he gets the young, very progressive vote.  But there are a lot of people (people, not some sinister behind-the-scenes machine) who have voted "not Bernie."

Not Bernie got 60% in Nevada.  Nationwide, "Not Bernie" is polling at over 65% among Dem primary voters.  As the field winnows, we're going to find out how many of the "Not Bernie" voters become "ok, Bernie" voters.  But that will almost certainly be a function of people voting, not some secret plot hatched by the ebil DNC in a volcanic lair.  The Bernie crowd is already prepping their sour grapes, as well as their narrative for why the DNC is bad and evil, and darnit, we'll just have to stay home to punish them (and thus help re-elect Trump).  Indeed, the Bernie crowd is following the predicted script pretty well thus far.

It might get old, but it's accurate. The party hates him and does not want him to be the nominee.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

Why would the Democrats leaders really want Bernie as their candidate? He doesn't even own up to being a Democrat. Am I missing something here?

Bernie and Warren are going to hurt the Texas Dems chances in the Texas House with their fracking ban comments. Plenty of potential Dem voters earn their living somewhat with the oil industry and both are leaving little room for those voters.

[Biff Tannen 45685]

Also, if Pete were to endorse Biden today and his delegates then pledge to Biden, suddenly Biden vaults into the lead.  Obviously a long way to go and tomorrow will be very telling, but Brisket's analysis that over 60% of people have voted "not Bernie" should be taken into account.

[gmr548 16580]

All that matters is can Bernie defeat Trump in Ohio, Florida, AND Pennsylvania.  You'll forgive some folks if they're not 100% convinced of this.  
Out of curiosity, who are Bernie's 5 largest donors?  

If any Democrat wins Ohio the election is an Obama 2008 level landslide. Possibly even more lopsided, because in a fantasy land where Ohio flips, Texas is flirting with doing so.

[bad_teammate 13195]

4 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

There is one mass popular movement candidate who has received fewer votes than Joe Biden in the primaries thus far?  You could teach a course on counting chickens before they hatch.  

After two caucuses (terribly low turnout always in caucuses) and two primaries. Bernie dominated the one that looks like American (Nevada #5 most representative Democratic state) and Biden dominated the one that doesn't (South Carolina #46).

If Biden ends up beating Bernie in the popular vote I'll be happy to acknowledge it. Biden is being given every possible advantage right now by both the Democratic machine and the media, so if he loses the popular vote to Bernie that should really be an embarrassment. We have the VP of an insanely popular president being treated like an underdog and needing every political intervention possible to keep him in contention, that should tell you something.

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Why would the Democrats leaders really want Bernie as their candidate? He doesn't even own up to being a Democrat. Am I missing something here?

That's OK.

My question: Why should any voters care about what the Democratic Party leadership thinks?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Why would the Democrats leaders really want Bernie as their candidate? He doesn't even own up to being a Democrat. Am I missing something here?

Because the party knows that if Bernie runs as an Independent, it's a walk for Trump.

[Brisketexan 105139]

24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

There is one mass popular movement candidate and those who were unable to match that are teaming up with their fellows against the massive grassroots candidate.

So....democracy.

If I look at the menu, and see the offerings of 1) tofu sandwich, 2) burger, 3) chicken sandwich, 4) fish tacos, and 5) bowl of chili, I'm probably going with the burger or the chili.  Some other folks might go for the chicken of the fish.  But we're all, in our mind, first saying "well, NOT the tofu."  But we know there are some folks out there who are super-vegan, and will not only passionately choose the tofu, they'll sneer and look down on any of us who order a dish with meat in it.

But if you make all of these people vote, and the choices coalesce to 1) tofu sandwich and 2) fish tacos, the ominvores outnumber the vegans.  "Not tofu" will be the winning choice.  We will "team up" to select the tasty entree made with animal flesh.  That's what people do -- they make choices.

In Bernie land, that's a bad thing.  Because hey, in the first round, with 5 menu choices, tofu was one of the top two vote-getters, so clearly, any final result that doesn't have all of American eating a tofu sandwich is an evil plot.

EDIT: and realize that in my analogy, we're choosing a menu item to run against a runny shit sandwich.  If we ultimately decide on the tofu sandwich as our competitor, I'll chow down on that bad boy.  I just doubt that the tofu fans will do the same if we end up choosing fish tacos.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Brisketexan

[bad_teammate 13195]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So....democracy.

Sure

Quote

If I look at the menu, and see the offerings of 1) tofu sandwich, 2) burger, 3) chicken sandwich, 4) fish tacos, and 5) bowl of chili, I'm probably going with the burger or the chili.  Some other folks might go for the chicken of the fish.  But we're all, in our mind, first saying "well, NOT the tofu."

So you think everyone who voted for someone other than Bernie's "first" thought was, "Well, NOT Bernie."?

You're godawful at this. The candidates and the voters aren't the same thing.

Edited March 2, 2020 by bad_teammate

[David Dennison 18860]

5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Because the party knows that if Bernie runs as an Independent, it's a walk for Trump.

The party believes this is the case if Bernie is the Democratic nominee.

[Brisketexan 105139]

Just now, bad_teammate said:

Sure

So you think everyone who voted for someone other than Bernie's "first" thought was, "Well, NOT Bernie."?

You're godawful at this.

EVERYONE?  Nope.  Groovy straw man, though.  On-brand for you.

Right now, "Not Bernie" gets around 68% of total dem primary voters polled.  If 75% of those voters are truly "not Bernie" voters, then he loses.  I suspect the margin is going to be somewhat close, but not so close that there's a reasonable argument that the numbers don't reflect the will of the voters.  I don't know which way it's going to go yet, though.

[gmr548 16580]

It might get old, but it's accurate. The party hates him and does not want him to be the nominee.

The reality of what is happening is obvious and if your complaint is that you don't like people speaking the truth out loud then you need to stop paying attention.
There is one mass popular movement candidate and those who were unable to match that are teaming up with their fellows against the massive grassroots candidate. It's happening. As long as its happening, people are going to say its happening.

You know, the "the party is out to get Bernie" shit gets kind of old.  Bernie is a pretty polarizing, stand-alone candidate -- he gets the young, very progressive vote.  But there are a lot of people (people, not some sinister behind-the-scenes machine) who have voted "not Bernie."
Not Bernie got 60% in Nevada.  Nationwide, "Not Bernie" is polling at over 65% among Dem primary voters.  As the field winnows, we're going to find out how many of the "Not Bernie" voters become "ok, Bernie" voters.  But that will almost certainly be a function of people voting, not some secret plot hatched by the ebil DNC in a volcanic lair.  The Bernie crowd is already prepping their sour grapes, as well as their narrative for why the DNC is bad and evil, and darnit, we'll just have to stay home to punish them (and thus help re-elect Trump).  Indeed, the Bernie crowd is following the predicted script pretty well thus far.

These are all true. The Democratic Party has made it pretty clear they would prefer to nominate someone else - Joe Biden being the current flavor of the month. Is that because they think Sanders can't win? They don't want to confront the possibility of structural change? Who knows. Probably a bit of both.

That said, we all know the Democratic Party is also incompetent as fuck. They have a clear advantage in support nationwide against their only opponent and routinely blow winnable elections. The much more politically efficient and cutthroat party couldn't do to Trump what many think the DNC wants to do to Sanders. Even without considering the reaction of people who are just caught up in the Sanders cult ofv personality, does anyone actually believe Democrats could successfully steal the nomination from Bernie (right now worth noting it looks like no one will get a majority) without making epic fools of themselves and handing the election to a president with 43 percent approval?

[bad_teammate 13195]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

EVERYONE?  Nope.  Groovy straw man, though.

Look at your own restaurant metaphor.

"But we're all, in our mind, first saying "well, NOT the tofu." "

[Brisketexan 105139]

1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Look at your own restaurant metaphor.

"But we're all, in our mind, first saying "well, NOT the tofu." "

Yes, a simplistic analogy used to discuss a complex scenario.  It's an analogy.  That's how they work.  I mean, we also have more than 5 people running for president.  And I have no idea who would be the bowl of chili in this analogy.  It would probably have beans in it anyway, so I ain't picking it.

[ndawg 1242]

I've been through too many election cycles where I don't get my way to be too bothered if Bernie loses. I could get behind Warren pretty easily,  but while I'd obviously cast a vote for Biden in November, I wouldn't otherwise be politically active. Ultimately, our democracy is screwed if we don't elect people that will hold the GOP accountable, and I don't see Biden addressing anything on that front. IMO he'll keep Democrats/independents who are financially stable from losing faith in the system, and I think that's a crucial component of the death spiral we're in.

Edited March 2, 2020 by ndawg