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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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WBT

WBT 20572

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This post is aging really, really well.

And I'm sorry to the Bros that the Democratic Party isn't quite as big a shitshow as the GOP.  But really, wasn't that always their only play (and remains their only play)?

Four years ago, when faced with a candidate who (1) has been a member of the party for about five minutes, (2) holds positions that are contrary to the party's traditional orthodoxy and contrary to the (erstwhile) opinions of most members, and (3) promises to cause widespread down-ballot destruction over the next few election cycles, the GOP couldn't coalesce behind an alternative.  They split their vote between Lyin' Ted, Little Marco, and John Kasich (who I don't think even ever merited a nickname.

The Democrats look as though they are going to avoid that fate.

The parallels have been evident for awhile and it does look like the establishment is trying to get its ducks in a row now.  As to your last line, we'll have to wait and see if Biden has more luck than Cruz as the last alternative standing.

Edited by WBT
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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32861

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Bringing up votes from 20 years ago?  ffs.

How is that irrelevant? We are right now in real time watching what happens when POTUS lacks foresight (coronavirus response). Pointing out that you could tell where a major issue was heading while your opponent was still clueless is important. In fact it's even more important if the primary comes down to these two because it's not like they're going to be around to change their minds 20 years from now.

Edited by Huckleberry
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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20940

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Sanders needs to get on the phone with Warren and promise her whatever to get out of the race.  

This about to get very interesting. 

Warren's argument for staying in the race is that's she's the compromise between Bernie and Biden. She needed Amy and Pete to drop out, and they did. 

But obviously Bernie needs her to drop out to consolidate support with Biden gaining momentum.  

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted

In Texas and am still torn between voting for Bernie or Biden tomorrow. My only criteria is who has a better chance to beat president shitstain and I really can’t tell who that is. Bernie has the obvious enthusiasm but Biden has the moderates, or does he? Tough call.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29354

Posted
Posted
Just now, JimmyJames said:

In Texas and am still torn between voting for Bernie or Biden tomorrow. My only criteria is who has a better chance to beat president shitstain and I really can’t tell who that is. Bernie has the obvious enthusiasm but Biden has the moderates, or does he? Tough call.

I don't trust moderates nor any centristy Republicans pretending they'll vote Dem if the "right" Dem is the nominee. However, I also don't trust Bernie to win Pennsylvania, which looks to be an absolute necessity.

So we're probably fucked.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29191

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

I thought we needed to fully vet the front runners?  No?  I mean - that is what was said about Sanders, no?

vet to your heart's content, just don't turn this place into a facebook feed.  we don't need a steady diet of cartoons, gifs, and other assorted memes.  let's be better than that.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

Warren has no chance of emerging as the nominee at the convention.  I would put it at 55/30/15 between Biden, Sanders, and Bloomberg at the convention.  With that in mind, it's hard to see why Liz is so dead set on trying to block Sanders from a first ballot victory unless she's angling for a cabinet position in a Biden/Bloomberg administration.  

There is a decent chance she is helping Bernie.  Warren's play may be to stay in, collect some delegates, but basically block the lanes that would let Klobacher gain enough supporters to be viable in some areas. Bernie wins the plurality in a crowded field. She'll collect the delegates she can, and then drop out before the convention, endorsing Bernie and directing her delegates to vote for him.  Maybe she gets a VP slot out of it, despite the effect on the Senate. 

1. Warren is not stupid.  She knows she won't get the nomination.

2. Warren sincerely believes in (most of) the things she advocates for. 

3. Ideologically, she is closest to Bernie.  It seems fairly obvious if the choice is between Bernie, Biden, or Bloomberg (the only three with any real shot right now), she'd pick Bernie in a heartbeat. 

4. Of her supporters who do so because of the progressive agenda, many of them will switch to Bernie anyway because he is obviously the only viable avenue to get a President who will push the progressive agenda. 

5. Not all of Warren's supporters would default to Bernie along ideological lines.  Some are turned off by the Bernie Bros and will go to Biden or Bloomberg, and many may find supporting a woman is more important than supporting the progressive agenda. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)

Whoever wins the nomination should name the Klobs as their VP. It makes too much sense not too and I realize she just endorsed Biden. The name of the game is to win.
 

A midwestern moderate woman as VP is the play even if Bernie wins. His supporters won’t really care and his detractors would be moderately assured. Kennedy made Johnson his VP to win Texas even though his own brother hated him.

Edited by JimmyJames
Last part was wrong
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bonnieblue

bonnieblue 542

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

There is a decent chance she is helping Bernie.  Warren's play may be to stay in, collect some delegates, but basically block the lanes that would let Klobacher gain enough supporters to be viable in some areas. Bernie wins the plurality in a crowded field. She'll collect the delegates she can, and then drop out before the convention, endorsing Bernie and directing her delegates to vote for him.  Maybe she gets a VP slot out of it, despite the effect on the Senate. 

1. Warren is not stupid.  She knows she won't get the nomination.

2. Warren sincerely believes in (most of) the things she advocates for. 

3. Ideologically, she is closest to Bernie.  It seems fairly obvious if the choice is between Bernie, Biden, or Bloomberg (the only three with any real shot right now), she'd pick Bernie in a heartbeat. 

4. Of her supporters who do so because of the progressive agenda, many of them will switch to Bernie anyway because he is obviously the only viable avenue to get a President who will push the progressive agenda. 

5. Not all of Warren's supporters would default to Bernie along ideological lines.  Some are turned off by the Bernie Bros and will go to Biden or Bloomberg, and many may find supporting a woman is more important than supporting the progressive agenda. 

Also, if Warren drops out, who else is going to keep biting at Bloomberg's heels and reminding everyone how terrible he is? I could see her campaign now evolving into a "spite store" against Bloomy.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45685

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Hillary completely annihilated him in the debates last time, and nobody cared.  He was reduced to third grade responses like, “No, you’re the puppet.  I know you are, but what am I?”

Buttigieg and Warren win all the debates in this primary.  He’s already out, and she was actually doing a lot worse than him.

The debates are largely irrelevant now.  They’re a vehicle for the networks to get more ratings events than just the actual election results, but fewer and fewer people give a shit about them when choosing a candidate.  

And I think that’s actually probably correct of the electorate under most circumstances, especially with how the media structures the debates now to just be sound byte food fights.   Winning these debates is not really representative of the skills needed to be a good President.  Trump should be an exception where people should care, because he proves himself to be completely ignorant and a compulsive liar in debates.  But again, we have already seen it doesn’t matter.

Yeah, but Hillary was also a completely unlikeable person in general.  I do agree the debate formats are god awful.

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GW Hayduke

GW Hayduke 1953

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

In Texas and am still torn between voting for Bernie or Biden tomorrow. My only criteria is who has a better chance to beat president shitstain and I really can’t tell who that is. Bernie has the obvious enthusiasm but Biden has the moderates, or does he? Tough call.

Your criteria is spot on.

It won’t matter if we decide to dress casual or for Sunday church if there is still a steaming piece of shit in the undies.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

There is a decent chance she is helping Bernie.  Warren's play may be to stay in, collect some delegates, but basically block the lanes that would let Klobacher gain enough supporters to be viable in some areas. Bernie wins the plurality in a crowded field. She'll collect the delegates she can, and then drop out before the convention, endorsing Bernie and directing her delegates to vote for him.  Maybe she gets a VP slot out of it, despite the effect on the Senate. 

1. Warren is not stupid.  She knows she won't get the nomination.

2. Warren sincerely believes in (most of) the things she advocates for. 

3. Ideologically, she is closest to Bernie.  It seems fairly obvious if the choice is between Bernie, Biden, or Bloomberg (the only three with any real shot right now), she'd pick Bernie in a heartbeat. 

4. Of her supporters who do so because of the progressive agenda, many of them will switch to Bernie anyway because he is obviously the only viable avenue to get a President who will push the progressive agenda. 

5. Not all of Warren's supporters would default to Bernie along ideological lines.  Some are turned off by the Bernie Bros and will go to Biden or Bloomberg, and many may find supporting a woman is more important than supporting the progressive agenda. 

I'm not convinced that Warren throwing her support to Sanders is a done deal.  A counterpoint I'd offer is that Warren truly is about getting things done, and it's been an attack angle of hers to differentiate from Sanders.  So the most proximal ideology may not be the full balance of her calculus.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29191

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This power play happening today is not just about Bernie. It's also signal to everyone to reject/disregard Bloomberg on Super Tuesday. 

bloomberg got into the race because he thought the democrats needed an old white moderate to rally behind.  he wasn't wrong.

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4th&Five

4th&Five 41552

Posted
Posted
Just now, longhornmatt said:

Hillary completely annihilated him in the debates last time, and nobody cared.  He was reduced to third grade responses like, “No, you’re the puppet.  I know you are, but what am I?”

Buttigieg and Warren win all the debates in this primary.  He’s already out, and she was actually doing a lot worse than him.

The debates are largely irrelevant now.  They’re a vehicle for the networks to get more ratings events than just the actual election results, but fewer and fewer people give a shit about them when choosing a candidate.  

And I think that’s actually probably correct of the electorate under most circumstances, especially with how the media structures the debates now to just be sound byte food fights.   Winning these debates is not really representative of the skills needed to be a good President.  Trump should be an exception where people should care, because he proves himself to be completely ignorant and a compulsive liar in debates.  But again, we have already seen it doesn’t matter.

And get rid of the fucking audiences at these things.  There's no reason to have people there cheering like it's a wrestling match.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

I'm not convinced that Warren throwing her support to Sanders is a done deal.  A counterpoint I'd offer is that Warren truly is about getting things done, and it's been an attack angle of hers to differentiate from Sanders.  So the most proximal ideology may not be the full balance of her calculus.

I don't see her getting more than 10% of the delegates.  

I don't see the convention anointing anyone who wasn't in the top 2 - maybe 3 if they are a tight field. 

I don't see her supporting Biden or Bloomberg.  

Maybe she doesn't really have a plan in place.  Maybe she just figures she can gather delegates now, and figure out what they would translate to later. But she usually has a plan. Kind of her thing. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15051

Posted
Posted
Are you ready for THUNDERDOME!?
 


So please clarify how this would work. If Bloomberg fades down the stretch, and he pledges his delegates to Biden, will they automatically go to Biden, or does each delegate make their own decision?
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13195

Posted
Posted
Just now, Dbeasy said:

So please clarify how this would work. If Bloomberg fades down the stretch, and he pledges his delegates to Biden, will they automatically go to Biden, or does each delegate make their own decision?

Delegates are bound in Round 1 and unbound in Round 2.

If you say, "Hey, I want you to vote for b_t in round 2!" to your delegates they can just ignore you and vote for Tuco instead.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 


So please clarify how this would work. If Bloomberg fades down the stretch, and he pledges his delegates to Biden, will they automatically go to Biden, or does each delegate make their own decision?

 

It depends on the individual state party rules for the first round. 

And BT is right for the 2nd round. But the Super Delegates will decide the nominee in the 2nd. 

Edited by washparkhorn
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