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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Fine by me if that’s who America votes for. 

I’m sick of having to pander to the Midwest because the south is brain dead.

Yeah well it’s not fine by me. 

So you’re good with four more years of trump so long as you maintain your principles eh? Well I guess that will then generate a whole lot of posts. 

Are you serious?

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

Yeah well it’s not fine by me. 

So you’re good with four more years of trump so long as you maintain your principles eh? Well I guess that will then generate a whole lot of posts. 

Are you serious?

Not really serious but one term of Trump should have been enough to wake this country up to the point where we wouldn’t have to worry about placating the Midwest.  If one term of Trump isn’t enough, we will deserve the consequences of a second term.  Which I realize could be horrific.  

Sometimes you have to burn the village. 

I care about America and unless there’s a serious reckoning, we’re going to get more Trumps in the years to come.  

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Patrick Bateman

Patrick Bateman 3966

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

The Midwest is the key. Won it for Obama. Won it for trump. Ignore it at your peril.

Ohio's probably not coming back.... they're in a racist, red neck death roll as is Florida.  If you get them, great, the rout is on but they're no longer keys.  Michigan and Wisconsin are needed but Pennsylvania seems like the biggest swing.  If you flip North Carolina and Arizona along with Penn and don't lose Wisconsin, then you don't need to flip any states in the Midwest although it's a nail biter.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14804

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Ohio's probably not coming back.... they're in a racist, red neck death roll as is Florida.  If you get them, great, the rout is on but they're no longer keys.  Michigan and Wisconsin are needed but Pennsylvania seems like the biggest swing.  If you flip North Carolina and Arizona along with Penn and don't lose Wisconsin, then you don't need to flip any states in the Midwest although it's a nail biter.

Ohio is whiter and less educated than almost any other large state, especially compared to the other large Midwestern states so the comparison to Florida is valid.  Dems can win without Ohio, especially with other states in play.

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6th Street

6th Street 6686

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Ohio's probably not coming back.... they're in a racist, red neck death roll as is Florida.  If you get them, great, the rout is on but they're no longer keys.  Michigan and Wisconsin are needed but Pennsylvania seems like the biggest swing.  If you flip North Carolina and Arizona along with Penn and don't lose Wisconsin, then you don't need to flip any states in the Midwest although it's a nail biter.

Yeah Ohio has been taken over by the hicks.

Biden is well liked in the other Rust Belt states like PA, WI and MI and will easily get to 270.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5901

Posted
Posted
Just now, 6th Street said:

Yeah Ohio has been taken over by the hicks.

Biden is well liked in the other Rust Belt states like PA, WI and MI and will easily get to 270.

Those states love them some Klobuchar as well. 

I think Arizona flips, and North Carolina is a lot more in play than people are talking about. I think many of the candidates will do well there, and could pull NC, but Harris walks away with it... 

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retread

retread 2951

Posted
Posted (edited)

Cross posting from podcast thread. Dan Carlin has a discussion with Daniele Bolelli re: how political ideologies have been historically categorized.

Interesting to listen to their discussion in light of the 'socialist' tag that the Rs are going to throw at the Ds.

 

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Js1

Js1 87174

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Those states love them some Klobuchar as well. 

I think Arizona flips, and North Carolina is a lot more in play than people are talking about. I think many of the candidates will do well there, and could pull NC, but Harris walks away with it... 

She also gets Michigan and PA (increased AA turnout in Detroit and Philly) and puts GA in play (ATL). 

I think at least most of those in the field can get 278 EV (just win back PA, MI and WI). 

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Celery Man

Celery Man 21094

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56 minutes ago, Pancho Negro said:

Just observing Beto over the last few weeks, I’m wondering if he’s leaning towards not running for President and going in on the Senate against corndog 

i bet he wishes that he could see the Mueller investigation play out (and weigh the damage it does to the GOP) before committing to a presidential run

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F250

F250 29195

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Pancho Negro said:

Just observing Beto over the last few weeks, I’m wondering if he’s leaning towards not running for President and going in on the Senate against corndog 

A few days ago I read that Schumer met with Beto regarding sitting the primary out in order to run against Cornyn in the Senate race in 2020. I doubt Beto beats Cornyn in a Presidential election when he couldn't beat dirty Cruz. Just taking a wild guess but maybe the DNC thinks Beto running for Senate will give the Dem Presidential nominee a huge push in the election the way he dragged Lupe throughout the election.

What is humorous is in the article the doofus Castro brothers encourage Beto's run for Senator in 2020. I can't imagine why Julian Castro would want Beto to stay out of the Presidential Primary. Beto should tell that puto Joaquin to run for the senate because he is going to kick his brother's ass in the primary.

 

Here is the article

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/429956-orourke-schumer-huddle-on-possible-2020-bid-report

 

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F250

F250 29195

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

I wish this country would have some guts and elect this woman. She is Bernie with actual accomplishments in congress. 

 

Think Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are the same? They aren't

Warren and Sanders have been conflated for years – commentators often talk of a “Sanders-Warren wing” of the Democratic party. But the two are not the same, and though Warren is an ally of many progressive causes, the best chance that we have to not just construct some better policy, but reconfigure a generation of American politics lies with Sanders running and capturing both the Democratic primary and the presidency.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/23/bernie-sanders-elizabeth-warren-democratic-party-2020-differences

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gmr548

gmr548 16689

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Ohio's probably not coming back.... they're in a racist, red neck death roll as is Florida.  If you get them, great, the rout is on but they're no longer keys.  Michigan and Wisconsin are needed but Pennsylvania seems like the biggest swing.  If you flip North Carolina and Arizona along with Penn and don't lose Wisconsin, then you don't need to flip any states in the Midwest although it's a nail biter.

 

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ohio is whiter and less educated than almost any other large state, especially compared to the other large Midwestern states so the comparison to Florida is valid.  Dems can win without Ohio, especially with other states in play.

 

Feel like I have beat the drum on this before, but these are absolutely correct. The past two elections show Ohio is only a slight bit more competitive than Texas at this point. And those two states are trending different directions. It absolutely would not shock me to see a closer race in TX than in OH in 2020. It can be won in an election that is over before polls close on the west coast, but it shouldn't be counted on.

FL is sort of the same way, but the rules regarding felons there and the fact that the educated and minority population is at least growing don't make it as lost in the long term. That state will at least remain competitive as the snow birds die off, though it is an R lean.

Getting PA back is damn near a given. Rs have to chase PA because the path to victory is so narrow but it isn't a true swing state in the same sense that OH isn't a true swing state. The Democratic electorate got caught napping there in 16. The stars aligned there for Rs the same way they now need to for Ds to win OH. The growing engine of that state is the Philly area, with the Pittsburgh area in a secondary role. We know how those two cities vote, and now you have the Philadelphia suburbs voting for a D Senator/Governor at a 60-40 clip. Rs have no chance in that scenario. They're outvoted 2-1 by half the state and still have to deal with Pittsburgh. Look at 2018 - that state is still comfortably blue if Philly shows up to vote. I don't think that is gonna be an issue in 2020.

WI has shown to be a true tossup. I think that is one of the most likely states to be a tipping point. MI leans blue - similar demographic patterns as OH, but not as dramatic. Also a similar dynamic to PA with Detroit area still being the singular major population center and voting strongly D, even the suburbs in 2018. Ds also flipped Grand Rapids in 2018 despite losing ground in the rural portions of the state in recent years. Ds still cleaned up there in 18 when they invested in it.  Fact is if the Ds win in metro Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing, there isn't exactly a big pool of votes throughout the rest of the state and that is the pool shrinking the quickest as well. A good D candidate can win MI with room to spare, a bad one can absolutely shock the world and lose it. See Clinton, Hillary twice.

Rounding out the midwest, Iowa is fucking weird. To me it appeared they were going the way of OH but it was very competitive in 2018. Ds flip two typically R house districts, almost pick off Steve King, and win the house popular vote, but lose a very winnable Governor's election. Statewide down-ballot races split. Who knows man.

Voter suppression in NC makes me wary of a flip. Demographically that shouldn't be a red state anymore and for all of the noise the Rs make about voter fraud, the best examples of compromised elections consistently come from the NC GOP. AZ will certainly be close. I could see Trump getting beat there with a good D candidate. If not, probably 2024. That's a when, not if.

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elfenix

elfenix 34744

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Posted
2 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

It’s not a windfall unless you say dividends and capital gains aren’t going to be taxed anymore, which nobody is saying.  There would have been more money to distribute in dividends if there wasn’t a corporate tax, and the stock would be worth more and sell at a higher value if the company wasn’t subject to income tax.  Making corporate dividends subject to ordinary income rates would give an even bigger windfall to owners of partnerships and LLCs that are pass through entities (and offer the same liability protection) which don’t get hit with the corporate tax.  You’d see a lot more money going into privately held ventures or MLPs rather than publicly traded stocks that the average joe can invest in.  401ks would take a hit, too, as the public securities become less profitable to investors.

Now, that new thing from the last tax reform where partnership pass through income can get taxed at the lower corporate tax rate is a windfall and should be repealed.  

assuming no change in dividend/capital gains rate and using nominal rates:

qualified dividends/ltcg = 1.00(.79)(.85) = .6715 'double taxed'
ltcg = 1.00(.85) = .85
even assuming a low actual rate, unless it's 0 it's still a smaller figure than .85.
what am i missing here?

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gmr548

gmr548 16689

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Posted
8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Elizabeth Warren would be a fucking awesome president. The shift from Trump to Warren in terms of experience, integrity, and intelligence would be so insane this country might die of the bends.

She has been really impressive. Her record has always been solid but I like the way she is focusing her campaign around strong progressive policy proposals.  That is probably a loser in America, sadly, but that is a different conversation. I really wanted to vote for someone younger because I'm tired of the goddamn boomers, but at this point I'd be surprised if I voted for someone else in the Democratic primary, even knowing it's over a year from now. She is the smartest person in the field and one of the few serious about the kinds of fundamental economic changes we need for this country not to go full third world.

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13496

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2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

I really hope everyone here is donating and planning to volunteer for these people. I've got my favorite, but the reality is that most of these options are going to be a tremendous improvement and we absolutely have to spend our actual, real-life time fighting in the real world for our people.

If you've never done it before, volunteer for a candidate. Canvas. Phone bank. If you're an anti-social weirdo, bring pizza and doughnuts (#NoTahoe) to those who are doing it.

Shitpost your heart out, I know I do, but nothing that is said here matters. Buttigieg deserves some man-hours (hey-o!) and some donations.

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TexArcher

TexArcher 39037

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Posted

Beto needs to run for president.  Even if he doesn't win the nomination, he will add millennial interest to the primaries that could carry over to the general.  And he'll help shape the entire dialogue.

And he's not beating Cornyn if he couldn't beat the second most punchable face in the Republican Party.

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gmr548

gmr548 16689

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Beto needs to run for president.  Even if he doesn't win the nomination, he will add millennial interest to the primaries that could carry over to the general.  And he'll help shape the entire dialogue.

And he's not beating Cornyn if he couldn't beat the second most punchable face in the Republican Party.

I agree challenging Cornyn would be a bad move. Yes, two more years of demographic shift would help, and most of the R base turned out in 2018. Meaning every additional vote with increased turnout in 2020 is more likely to be D because it is likely to come from groups with more voters that passed in the midterms - latinos, youths, etc. He also isn;t starting at such a massive disadvantage in terms of name recognition, finances, infrastructure, etc.

Still, Cornyn is a much more well-liked and entrenched R than Cruz was. The lifelong R closet Beto supporters in the suburbs will stick with Cornyn. His popularity is probably closer to Abbott than Cruz. The margin might even end up similar, but I don't see where he closes the gap.

I don't think Beto can win a D Presidential primary but who knows. All signs point to him running. Personally, I'd love for him to buy time as an advocate/activist for Texas for the next four years and run it back vs Cruz in 2024.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5901

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

Voter suppression in NC makes me wary of a flip. Demographically that shouldn't be a red state anymore and for all of the noise the Rs make about voter fraud, the best examples of compromised elections consistently come from the NC GOP. 

 

The GOP is on a slow death march in North Carolina, and the Dems would be smart to really focus their efforts there. The GOP gerrymandered and rigged the entire state, except for one area, and by the time they tried to rig the state Supreme Court, it was too late and the Dems control the court 5-2 (soon to be 6-1) right now. The state is going to file a lawsuit against gerrymandering at the state level, since there is no help coming from the SCOTUS, and they are going to win. 

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thrillhammer

thrillhammer 686

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Posted

no matter who the nominee is, i think we have a hard road ahead of us.  the trump machine is still going strong, and he uses the office to stump and campaign unlike any other.  though there might be cracks, i see no significant breaks in his base or support.  if clinton had won just michigan and pennsylvania she'd be president. there are states the dems could flip, but it will not be easy.  conservatives say you will have to peel the trump away from their cold, dead hands before they'll give him up.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90637

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Posted
19 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

no matter who the nominee is, i think we have a hard road ahead of us.  the trump machine is still going strong, and he uses the office to stump and campaign unlike any other.  though there might be cracks, i see no significant breaks in his base or support.  if clinton had won just michigan and pennsylvania she'd be president. there are states the dems could flip, but it will not be easy.  conservatives say you will have to peel the trump away from their cold, dead hands before they'll give him up.

Trump personally campaigned in WI, MI, PA, and AZ, told his followers to get out and vote and donate, and yet the Dems flipped all four last November.   

Hell, Arizona, a state with a large Air Force population,  saw a decorated Air Force fighter pilot that Trump personally campiagned for, defeated by an atheist bisexual.  

The Dems don’t have to peel those states away From Trump. 

Hell, Trump has to figure out how to retake those states.  His shutdown fiasco didn’t help him at all.  

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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13496

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Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump personally campaigned in WI, MI, PA, and AZ, told his followers to get out and vote and donate, and yet the Dems flipped all four last November.   

Hell, Arizona, a state with a large Air Force population,  saw a decorated Air Force fighter pilot that Trump personally campiagned for, defeated by an atheist bisexual.  

The Dems don’t have to peel those states away From Trump. 

Hell, Trump has to figure out how to retake those states.  His shutdown fiasco didn’t help him at all.  

Mid-terms != Presidential (49% turnout vs. 56% turnout)

There are millions of people out there who will show up to vote in the presidential, screaming "TRUMP! TRUMP!" in the voting booth, who don't bother voting in mid-terms.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90637

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

Mid-terms != Presidential (49% turnout vs. 56% turnout)

There are millions of people out there who will show up to vote in the presidential, screaming "TRUMP! TRUMP!" in the voting booth, who don't bother voting in mid-terms.

Around 80,000 votes in WI, MI, and PA made the difference in 2016.   Those states were all won easily by Obama.

Trump and the GOP have only stepped on their own dicks in those states since 2016.   Repulbican legislators in the first two shit all over the voting public when they saw Dems making huge gains last November.

Those are not even close to automatic wins for Trump.     

 

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thrillhammer

thrillhammer 686

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Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Around 80,000 votes in WI, MI, and PA made the difference in 2016.   Those states were all won easily by Obama.

Trump and the GOP have only stepped on their own dicks in those states since 2016.   Repulbican legislators in the first two shit all over the voting public when they saw Dems making huge gains last November.

Those are not even close to automatic wins for Trump.     

 

i watch enough fox and oan, and listen to enough washington journal on cspan, to know his base is still alive and well, and fervent as ever.  our one advantage, besides that he is a bumbling buffoon, is that we took him lightly the first time.  no one in the world thought he had a chance of winning, including him.  my advice would be to recognize that they are a force to deal with, and come up with a plan to deal with them.

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