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2020 Democratic Nominee

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89416

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

i watch enough fox and oan, and listen to enough washington journal on cspan, to know his base is still alive and well, and fervent as ever.  our one advantage, besides that he is a bumbling buffoon, is that we took him lightly the first time.  no one in the world thought he had a chance of winning, including him.  my advice would be to recognize that they are a force to deal with, and come up with a plan to deal with them.

Sure, they can be a force.  But the Dems aren’t going to flip his supporters, and they don’t need to.  They just need to get out their own base, and Trump is helping drive the moderates/fence sitters to the Ds.  

And Trump’s base didn’t materialize out of thin air - these people were around when a black Muslim, atheist, Marxist, Socialist, Communist, Kenyan, community organizer from Chicago named Barrack Hussein Obama was easily winning those states. 

And Florida was an Obama win, it was close on 2016, and the Dems nearly flipped it last November. 

Trump has to play defense, and judging by his twitter output, he doesn’t have the first clue.  He’s sliding towards Howard Hughes mode.  

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
I will not support Bernie. 

Terrible. I would vote for almost every D candidate over Bernie in the primary but will gladly vote for him with bells on over Trump. And I think just about everyone in this thread would do the same for whoever is up against Trump.

 

Maybe I'll go back to rolling my eyes at the stupid decisions the D party makes in 2024, but for now I'm on board for whoever they put up, even if (when) they choose poorly.

 

 

 

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Js1

Js1 85104

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Terrible. I would vote for almost every D candidate over Bernie in the primary but will gladly vote for him with bells on over Trump. And I think just about everyone in this thread would do the same for whoever is up against Trump.

 

Maybe I'll go back to rolling my eyes at the stupid decisions the D party makes in 2024, but for now I'm on board for whoever they put up, even if (when) they choose poorly.

 

 

 

I will vote for a eggplant that's been in the sun for 5 days, run over by a bus and half eaten by a rat over Trump.  Just sayin'.

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Fozzz

Fozzz 152

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, sublime said:

I'm now hoping Biden enters. Look, it's my right AS AN AMERICAN to want something other than Russian Mafia Fascism to the right and a declared Socialist Independent who wants to blow up the banks to the left.

I want a member of the damned Democratic Party.

If you don't want Bernie then you need that psychopath Klobuchar to drop out now and for the party to throw its entire weight behind Lady Cop.  

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I will vote for a eggplant that's been in the sun for 5 days, run over by a bus and half eaten by a rat over Trump.  Just sayin'.

However, we don’t have to nominate an eggplant because people think the eggplant is likely to beat Trump.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Js1

Js1 85104

Posted
Posted
Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

However, we don’t have to nominate an eggplant because people think the eggplant is likely to beat Trump.

I mean, I have my favorite.  But I'm not going to sit out or vote third party if my favorite doesn't win.  

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

I wish this country would have some guts and elect this woman. She is Bernie with actual accomplishments in congress. 

 

Good interview.  With her smarts and experience, I like how she demonstrates a grasp of the complexity of readiness and implementation, not just pie in the sky ideas.  That's hugely important.  Reforming the river of cash in politics and revolving door of lobbying among other things is spot on, and obviously echoes what's already been presented by the House in HR1 this year.

On the impeachment question, I understand her patience.  She's not hysterical.  She gets it.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

How about just pretend Trump doesn’t exist and nominate the person that would make the best president? 

Trump being on the ballot in 2020 is about 50/50 by my armchair estimates.

Because that's not reality and it's the path to four more years. Lots of Democrats seem to think that victory is imminent and Trump is a dead man walking, affording them the luxury to pick a liberal dream candidate who will jam every vanity project possible into their platform (see: Green New Deal, which nobody in the Rust Belt gives a shit about). 

However that's not the case at all. Trump is currently 2:1 or better on the prop/betting sites. That's around the same odds that 538 gave him on election night 2016, and we all know what happened there. There was a poll posted recently, I think by you actually, showing that except for Biden, Trump was within 5-6 points of all of the real contenders. That 5-6 points is the same polling margin that Hillary had for basically all of 2016, and again, we all know what happened. There's absolutely some tangible percentage of people who will not tell a pollster that they're voting Trump, but will vote for him. And the GOP spin machine hasn't even begun to paint those candidates with their Muslim baby killing gun stealing propaganda, whereas Trump is a known quantity. So when I see those numbers, I assume the only direction they'll go on election day is towards Trump.

It's really, really stupid to assume that the Democrats have this in the bag because of 2018 (or whatever reason you fancy). We aren't there. And Hugo, despite our disagreements, I like you and am not calling you stupid personally, but it's absolutely folly to assume that the win is in the bag. It's like Democrats have already forgotten 2016. It's mind-bottling.

There is a really, really legitimate chance that Trump wins again. 2020 needs to be approached with that in mind. This is not the time for vanity.

Edited by BradInATX
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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Because that's not reality and it's the path to four more years. Lots of Democrats seem to think that victory is imminent and Trump is a dead man walking, affording them the luxury to pick a liberal dream candidate who will jam every vanity project possible into their platform (see: Green New Deal, which nobody in the Rust Belt gives a shit about). 

However that's not the case at all. Trump is currently 2:1 or better on the prop/betting sites. That's around the same odds that 538 gave him on election night 2016, and we all know what happened there. There was a poll posted recently, I think by you actually, showing that except for Biden, Trump was within 5-6 points of all of the real contenders. That 5-6 points is the same polling margin that Hillary had for basically all of 2016, and again, we all know what happened. There's absolutely some tangible percentage of people who will not tell a pollster that they're voting Trump, but will vote for him. And the GOP spin machine hasn't even begun to paint those candidates with their Muslim baby killing gun stealing propaganda, whereas Trump is a known quantity. So when I see those numbers, I assume the only direction they'll go on election day is towards Trump.

It's really, really stupid to assume that the Democrats have this in the bag because of 2018 (or whatever reason you fancy). We aren't there. And Hugo, despite our disagreements, I like you and am not calling you stupid personally, but it's absolutely folly to assume that the win is in the bag. It's like Democrats have already forgotten 2016. It's mind-bottling.

There is a really, really legitimate chance that Trump wins again. 2020 needs to be approached with that in mind. This is not the time for vanity.

The win is far from in the bag.  But the trump base isn't going anywhere.  They may say they'll vote for a moderate Dem, but they won't.  Republicans are going to vote for trump again.  The dems have to find someone who excites everyone who's not in the trump base, and gets out the vote, especially considering the GOP voter suppression going on in many of these states.    The dems don't win back the presidency by worrying about winning back trump voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.  They win by providing an alternative to Trump.

And to be clear I don't think picking a moderate is bad.  I don't even think this election is much about policy ideas.  It's about finding someone to excite people to vote, and who can repair the damage to our country, both here and with our allies.  

Personally, I don't think any of the candidates over 70 years old are the people to do that.  

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

Feel like I have beat the drum on this before, but these are absolutely correct. The past two elections show Ohio is only a slight bit more competitive than Texas at this point. And those two states are trending different directions. It absolutely would not shock me to see a closer race in TX than in OH in 2020. It can be won in an election that is over before polls close on the west coast, but it shouldn't be counted on.

FL is sort of the same way, but the rules regarding felons there and the fact that the educated and minority population is at least growing don't make it as lost in the long term. That state will at least remain competitive as the snow birds die off, though it is an R lean.

Getting PA back is damn near a given. Rs have to chase PA because the path to victory is so narrow but it isn't a true swing state in the same sense that OH isn't a true swing state. The Democratic electorate got caught napping there in 16. The stars aligned there for Rs the same way they now need to for Ds to win OH. The growing engine of that state is the Philly area, with the Pittsburgh area in a secondary role. We know how those two cities vote, and now you have the Philadelphia suburbs voting for a D Senator/Governor at a 60-40 clip. Rs have no chance in that scenario. They're outvoted 2-1 by half the state and still have to deal with Pittsburgh. Look at 2018 - that state is still comfortably blue if Philly shows up to vote. I don't think that is gonna be an issue in 2020.

WI has shown to be a true tossup. I think that is one of the most likely states to be a tipping point. MI leans blue - similar demographic patterns as OH, but not as dramatic. Also a similar dynamic to PA with Detroit area still being the singular major population center and voting strongly D, even the suburbs in 2018. Ds also flipped Grand Rapids in 2018 despite losing ground in the rural portions of the state in recent years. Ds still cleaned up there in 18 when they invested in it.  Fact is if the Ds win in metro Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing, there isn't exactly a big pool of votes throughout the rest of the state and that is the pool shrinking the quickest as well. A good D candidate can win MI with room to spare, a bad one can absolutely shock the world and lose it. See Clinton, Hillary twice.

Rounding out the midwest, Iowa is fucking weird. To me it appeared they were going the way of OH but it was very competitive in 2018. Ds flip two typically R house districts, almost pick off Steve King, and win the house popular vote, but lose a very winnable Governor's election. Statewide down-ballot races split. Who knows man.

Voter suppression in NC makes me wary of a flip. Demographically that shouldn't be a red state anymore and for all of the noise the Rs make about voter fraud, the best examples of compromised elections consistently come from the NC GOP. AZ will certainly be close. I could see Trump getting beat there with a good D candidate. If not, probably 2024. That's a when, not if.

Excellent post and spot on. To me the closest states for 2020 are going to be Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, and North Carolina. Trump can win all of those and if he wins five but loses New Hampshire, then we have a tie and the house decides it. In other words, trump inspired chaos. 

If the dems lose Michigan and Pennsylvania again, which I don’t think will happen but who really knows, we’re fucked. 

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Js1

Js1 85104

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Posted
Just now, JimmyJames said:

So the trump-loving, Chrispy-repping, gif-posting, troll called Zork is afraid of Biden. 

Says a lot IMO. 

Nah, when one of these halfwits tells me which one they're "scared" of, including "GOP Strategists," its way more - "we have our oppo ready, we dare you nominate them, we're going to bury them alive" 

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zork

zork 629

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

So the trump-loving, Chrispy-repping, gif-posting, troll called Zork is afraid of Biden. 

Says a lot IMO. 

What would you say is the reaction on the face of that little girl as Biden stands near her?  Did she have gas?  Maybe there is fear in my previous post wrt Biden but not from me.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, zork said:

What would you say is the reaction on the face of that little girl as Biden stands near her?  Did she have gas?  Maybe there is fear in my previous post wrt Biden but not from me.

Are you claiming or implying that Biden was somehow molesting that girl in front of a large audience and on tv? Because if you’re gonna make such an accusation you might as well come out and say it instead of hiding behind your passing gas troll bullshit. 

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11564

Posted
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57 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Are you claiming or implying that Biden was somehow molesting that girl in front of a large audience and on tv? Because if you’re gonna make such an accusation you might as well come out and say it instead of hiding behind your passing gas troll bullshit. 

If somebody, specifically an old man of no relation,  touch my daughter that way it would be fucking on.  That is some weird ass shit.  It's not molestation, but out of line.

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NowThis

NowThis 931

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

If somebody, specifically an old man of no relation,  touch my daughter that way it would be fucking on.  That is some weird ass shit.  It's not molestation, but out of line.

good explanation. He's creepy, but just enough to stay out of legal trouble. Hand goes a few inches lower and he's gone. 

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F250

F250 28682

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, sublime said:

Lol he kissed her on the top of the head. I do the same thing to people.

You go beat up Biden, dude. There's another thread where a RWer is mocking crying women as if it's pornhub fetish, so excuse me if I don't believe you people's chialry and gallantry, ever.

You're making absurdist molestation accusations, and you know it.  

Shame on you. Considering what your damn president said & probably did on tape!

The right has no concern for others. You're all just bullies, chest beaters and world class liars. Like your Oval Office disgrace.

Agreed. Not to mention the Roy Moore endorsement. The Reps should have purged that dude but nope. The insinuations against Uncle Joe are disingenuous and I say that as someone who doesn't even like him.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

If somebody, specifically an old man of no relation,  touch my daughter that way it would be fucking on.  That is some weird ass shit.  It's not molestation, but out of line.

Dang. I had no idea you were such an internet tough guy.  I bet you would tear that imaginary guy a new one. 

You guys are something else. Your hero brags about grabbing pussy, associates with a convicted pedophile and his apologist lawyer, conspires with the Russians, denigrates and attempts to destroy democracy and the free press, and this is what you find the time to complain about? 

Excuse me if I don’t take you seriously for some odd reason. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

If somebody, specifically an old man of no relation,  touch my daughter that way it would be fucking on.  That is some weird ass shit.  It's not molestation, but out of line.

Let your sock speak and defend for itself old troll. I’m sure he’s capable. 

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Js1

Js1 85104

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Hey libs, we like to have fun and everything, but Joe Biden is a fucking creep. I'm not saying he's a child molester, but he's handsy as fuck and there's really nothing to be gained from pretending otherwise.

Yep.

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

There’s got to be something better on Biden than his creepy roaming hands. 

Oh there is.

Paid speeches
90s Crime Bill (aka, the 94 Biden Crime Bill, as he called it)
Anita Hill
He's fucking 77 years old
Bankruptcy reform bill (lmao, Warren will rip him a new one)
Voted for the Iraq War (yeah, it dogged Hillary too)

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Js1

Js1 85104

Posted
Posted
Just now, sublime said:

That's still not much. He's gonna be the front runner when he enters and you can bet your butt Obama's gonna endorse.

Yeah, don't assume that.

There was just an article last month that he's going to be very selective in endorsing. Aka, the race will be pretty close to decided. And it would probably be a decision between Joe and Kamala.  He's not going to forget she was one his earliest supporters and was there when he announced, despite Hillary being the favorite.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted

Yeah, Obama won’t be endorsing anyone until it’s decided.

Not only does he not want to be seen as putting his finger on the scale, he also doesn’t want to be embarrassed by coming out for someone early, have that person lose, and watch the Democratic nominee be followed by stories about that during the general.

Some of y’all better be glad you didn’t choose politics to make a living because you’re terrible at the basics.

Bank on this - Obama will not be seen with a candidate until the convention and Biden won’t be the nominee.

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Eggo

Eggo 3974

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sublime said:

I didn't mean he'd endorse Biden early. I meant he'd endorse Biden genuinely, and not in a perfunctory way. Or -- it'll be Kamala. And if Biden isn't the nominee, it will be Kamala. 

I majored in politics. I get the basics. I'm almost always right about my political intuitions, unless "cheating" has occurred. (same gift for football)

So your intuition is saying that the former Democratic POTUS is going to endorse the Democratic nominee? You do have a gift.

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted

That’s not what you said.

He's gonna be the front runner when he enters and you can bet your butt Obama's gonna endorse.


Implying that Obama’s endorsement will enhance Biden’s “frontrunner” status.

Obama won’t endorse anyone until the convention. Period.

And it doesn’t matter how much you study something if you have shitty instincts.

(PS - You aren’t fooling anyone with this latest account, you realize that, right?)
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11564

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Dang. I had no idea you were such an internet tough guy.  I bet you would tear that imaginary guy a new one. 

You guys are something else. Your hero brags about grabbing pussy, associates with a convicted pedophile and his apologist lawyer, conspires with the Russians, denigrates and attempts to destroy democracy and the free press, and this is what you find the time to complain about? 

Excuse me if I don’t take you seriously for some odd reason. 

I strongly encourage you to recreate Joe’s actions from that gif  with every 8-12 year old girl you encounter.  Please have someone video and post here.

 

 

 

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Js1

Js1 85104

Posted
Posted

Obama himself won’t endorse until the convention or someone clinched it before. Team Obama may pick someone on their own. 

The 2020 nominee won’t appear with Hillary. Would just rile up Trump’s base. She may tweet an endorsement Bc she will not be trotted out. 

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I strongly encourage you to recreate Joe’s actions from that gif  with every 8-12 year old girl you encounter.  Please have someone video and post here.

 

 

 

Why? Does imagining a molestation video from one that doesn’t exist somehow turn you on? What kind of sick fuck mind are you? 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Obama himself won’t endorse until the convention or someone clinched it before. Team Obama may pick someone on their own. 

The 2020 nominee won’t appear with Hillary. Would just rile up Trump’s base. She may tweet an endorsement Bc she will not be trotted out. 

Hillary will endorse Donald Trump

/as a troll

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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