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2020 Democratic Nominee

used2b

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Huckleberry
Huckleberry

No it doesn't, this is absurd selfishness on a grand scale. Nobody is getting punished. My wife and I paid off our student loans, and you know what I think about younger people or even those in our ge

henrygandorf
henrygandorf

i’ve really enjoyed the 900 posts from bt explaining how bernie people aren’t aggressive, obsessive, and very-online.  truly a learning experience. 

Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton

3rd or 4th thread but whos counting.  Name recognition and ability to collect money is most important to the Democratic Party. They aren't trying to win 2020, they are trying to rebuild and colle

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Dropout

Dropout 355

Posted
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30 minutes ago, NowThis said:

when was the last time the DNC (or RNC) has 3 or 4 candidates with equivalent levels of delegates? Suppose Milwaukee has that next year, how will the chaos be resolved?

All out war.

Please don’t let this happen. I have my preference but someone better run away w this or win by a significant margin.

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Llano Estacado

Llano Estacado 1257

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All out war.


Will there be a Trump candidate that goes low to beat all the dead horse “controversies” and makes them relitigate instead of campaign?

Warren - Heritage appropriation
Biden - “clean articulate” and “7-11 Dunkin” comments.
Beto - DUI & “breast and Buttock”
Sanders - Taxes, sexual harassment from campaign
Etc
Etc.

I think Rs topped out at 16 or 17 candidates. Bell curve, your going to have some leaders some 5-10%s then some 1%s. Trump hammered some 1% before they could get off the ground. Don’t think that’s typical campaign strategy. Trump had no fear of giving a voice to Jindal, Huckabee, Santorum, Carsons of the worlds. Hit the low ones early and often while they’re taxing and taking off, so you can concentrate on getting ahead of the 25-30% candidates already flying.
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11876

Posted
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1 hour ago, Llano Estacado said:

 


8f074722233bf27789602ef7af965e03.gif

 

 

47 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Those are straight out of email marketing 101. First time I've seen a business cold outreach style email campaign from a politician. I am mildly gruntled.

 

It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

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troph

troph 25227

Posted
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Trump announced 6/15/15
He took first in the polls in early July 2015. Literally 2-3 weeks later he had already passed everyone who had already been running. It took him less than a month to get his first double-digit lead and he maintained that double-digit lead for basically the entire primary. 
The fundamentals for Trump to take over the primary were obvious. No one in the Dem field has anything like what Donald Trump had.
Hey WaPo? #DoBetter

I disagree. Beto’s marketing prowess is second to none. The kid in the race may make a play bc of his generational connection but other than that I think Biden and Beto are the out of the gate front runners. And if Beto isn’t polling well enough at the beginning, watch how his machine works. If he’s in the top three of Iowa he will rake in the cash. This will narrow quickly I think. Biden won’t have the same ground game but he will grab a ton of corporate money and NE money. I really think it’s those two with the young kid as a possible but unlikely wildcard.
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FondrenRoad

FondrenRoad 4378

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2 hours ago, troph said:


I disagree. Beto’s marketing prowess is second to none. The kid in the race may make a play bc of his generational connection but other than that I think Biden and Beto are the out of the gate front runners. And if Beto isn’t polling well enough at the beginning, watch how his machine works. If he’s in the top three of Iowa he will rake in the cash. This will narrow quickly I think. Biden won’t have the same ground game but he will grab a ton of corporate money and NE money. I really think it’s those two with the young kid as a possible but unlikely wildcard.

I don't know.  Anecdotal, of course, but I know quite a lot of people that were fundraising for Beto against Cruz, but aren't supporting him as their top candidate for President.  That isn't to say they don't like him if he makes it to the general, but they aren't going to throw their weight his way in the primary.  He isn't going to get any of the nationwide progressive cash that he was pulling in for his Senate campaign.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I liked his first tweet.  The second one was a little heavy-handed considering most extreme nationalism kills.  I like this guy a lot but he needs to understand Democide.  

I'm guessing this is gonna put the breaks on the Flight of the Conchords reunion tour.

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Chooky

Chooky 13340

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Maybe the whole "Amy Klobuchar was too mean to her staff" accusation was totally justified on her part.  What if they were doing stuff like pissing in the printer like it was a urinal or kept getting on the speaker phone to fart while she had visitors or kept sending her constituents pictures of their genitals?  You have to be stern sometimes.

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bolverk

bolverk 30330

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I like this candidate primer. It provides answers to some key questions for the various names floating out there with enough snark to keep it interesting.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/2020-candidates-president-guide/582598/

It asks the questions:

  • Who is s/he?
  • Is s/he running?
  • Why does s/he want to run?
  • Who wants him/her to run?
  • Can s/he win the nomination?
  • What else do we know?

Potential candidates mentioned are:

  • John Hickenlooper
  • Jay Inslee
  • Bernie Sanders
  • Amy Klobuchar
  • Elizabeth Warren
  • Kamala Harris
  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Julian Castro
  • John Delaney
  • Tulsi Gabbard
  • Kirsten Gillibrand
  • Andrew Yang
  • Marianne Williamson
  • Cory Booker
  • Joe Biden
  • Steve Bullock
  • Sherrod Brown
  • Eric Swalwell
  • Terry McAuliffe
  • Tim Ryan
  • Seth Moulton
  • Beto O'Rourke
  • Michael Bennet
  • Wayne Messam
  • Stacey Abrams
  • Bill de Blasio
  • Mike Bloomberg
  • Eric Holder
  • Mitch Landrieu
  • Andrew Cuomo
  • Eric Garcetti
  • Hillary Clinton
  • Michael Avenatti
  • Tom Steyer
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13524

Posted
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8 hours ago, Lobo said:

I liked his first tweet.  The second one was a little heavy-handed considering most extreme nationalism kills.  I like this guy a lot but he needs to understand Democide.  

I'm guessing this is gonna put the breaks on the Flight of the Conchords reunion tour.

LEAVE WHITE NATIONALISM ALONE!!

shut up

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EMAWesome

EMAWesome 101

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And here comes the identity politics backlash against O'Rourke.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/15/beto-orourke-backlash-women-1223073

Since announcing her 2020 run, Elizabeth Warren has dispensed three major policy proposals, held 30 campaign events and visited nearly a dozen states.

Since announcing his 2020 run, Beto O’Rourke has made one visit to Iowa, where he vaguely outlined his positions, including from atop a cafe counter.

Guess who’s getting the star treatment.

The breathless, sweeps-like cable television coverage that greeted the former Texas congressman’s first campaign events stunned and frustrated many Democratic operatives — particularly women — who viewed it as an example of the double standard at work in the historically diverse presidential field.

To them, O’Rourke, a white, male candidate had already been ordained the next sensation, his entry into the race greased by live television shots and O’Rourke-centric panels.

And that was after the national press swarmed him in El Paso during a recent Donald Trump appearance there, after O’Rourke graced the latest Vanity Fair cover, and after Oprah Winfrey, who had her choice of accomplished women candidates to feature on her program, instead zeroed in on the white guy from Texas.

“I feel like the media is always captivated by the person they seem to think is a phenom: Bernie. Trump. Beto. But they always seem to be white men who are phenoms. In a year where we have more choices than ever, more women and more persons of color than ever, none of them seem to be deemed a phenom,” said Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic political consultant.

“It’s a replay of Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton. Instead, it’s Beto O’Rourke in the Bernie Sanders role, to the detriment of every woman running. Not one woman got that kind of coverage. Not one. Not Kamala. Not Kirsten. Not Elizabeth Warren. Not Amy Klobuchar in a blizzard.”

“So what have we learned?” Marsh continued. “Nothing.”

While the 2018 midterm elections set the stage for women making historic gains in Congress — and last month marked another groundbreaking moment when five women officeholders joined the presidential race — no woman on the Democratic side received the kind of wall-to-wall coverage O’Rourke received.

And unlike O’Rourke, who rocketed to stardom last year as he raised a record-breaking $80 million in his unexpectedly close defeat to Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, all of them had won their last election.

“I fully appreciate that he can espouse progressive values as a Democrat, that’s a benefit for the Democratic field. I don’t welcome being fed the retro candidacy,” said Tracy Sefl, a Democratic strategist and onetime Hillary Clinton adviser. “There’s a romanticizing of him. It’s the artful Vanity Fair cover — but in reality he was in Keokuk, Iowa in a coffee shop. The coffee shop had more reporters in it than Iowans. That’s the product of romanticizing.”

Frustrations over the hyper-coverage of O’Rourke began to build on the eve of his campaign rollout, when Vanity Fair published its April edition online featuring photos taken by the renowned Annie Leibovitz. On the cover stood O’Rourke in blue jeans on a dusty Texas road with a headline declaring: “Beto’s Choice: I want to be in it. Man, I’m just born to be in it.”

His comments, which to some Democrats carried the scent of white male privilege, set fire to a whole different set of frustrations.

“A woman could never say ‘I was born to do this.’ But you know what? I think that some women were and it pains me that a woman couldn’t get away with saying that,” Sefl said.

Other female Democratic operatives questioned whether the women candidates could have gotten away with some of the comments O’Rourke made Thursday about his parenting style, or taken the kind of well-publicized, sans-family road trip he took earlier this year.

“I actually really like Beto, but all you have to do is put his quotes into the mouth of a hypothetical woman candidate: she ‘sometimes’ takes care of her kids, she was ‘born for this’, her speech was just ‘amazing, every word pulled out of me’ to know that women would not be the object of adoration,” said Jess McIntosh, a Democratic strategist and former senior communications staffer on the Hillary Clinton campaign.

Each candidate, of course, has had his or her moment in the sun. All of the top Democratic contenders have taken turns appearing on late night talk shows or CNN town halls. Harris announced her candidacy on “Good Morning America,” and cable news channels carried live her subsequent Oakland, Calif. rally, which drew some 20,000 people.

But Warren, for example, was initially greeted in Iowa by crowds that stretched for several blocks in Des Moines yet her visit wasn’t carried live as some outlets carried O’Rourke’s on Thursday.

Democratic pollster and strategist Celinda Lake argued that it wasn’t just O’Rourke who was getting special treatment — she says there’s a broader gender imbalance at play. When it comes to substance, she said the women running have fielded more questions on their records and have received the brunt of negative stories to date.

Klobuchar has been hit with tough stories about her treatment of staff while Gillibrand has faced questions about the handling of a sexual harassment complaint in her office. Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has been sharply scrutinized for her position on Syria and her comments about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. And Warren has been besieged by stories about her past claims of having Native American heritage.

“I think if you look at the pattern, there is a real distinction between the way men were covered and the way the women were covered. There’s a huge double standard,” Lake said. “With women, many, many more negatives were raised and the men were treated like the second coming. I’m surprised that this is continuing in 2019, after the year of the woman.”

The best-known male candidates haven’t exactly had a free pass. Bernie Sanders, an early frontrunner in polls, in January has to contend with allegations of sexual harassment within his 2016 campaign and sharp criticism from former Hillary Clinton staffers. The hefty speaking fees of prospective candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden have been closely examined.

Even so, some Democratic operatives said, women are not only treated differently by the media as a whole, they face an inherent, entrenched sexism from voters.

“They are observed in different ways, they are consumed in different ways,” says Sefl. “We expect them to speak about their roles in different ways.”

That much is true, says McIntosh, who pointed to O’Rourke’s admission in an interview that he struggles to connect, even with his family at times, as the kind of revelation that a woman candidate could not make without being penalized.

“Women can’t take that path and be seen as leaders,” McIntosh said. “My hope is that watching strong men and women candidates run alongside each other in real time is going to help us acknowledge and address some of these double standards.”

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troph

troph 25227

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You know what? It’s the Texas mystique, its the fact that if Texas goes blue it’s game set match. It’s bravado, it’s charisma and the truth is - that is easier to pull of as a man - but women can have it too. At least tonight I think they can. Anne Richards would have been able to say she was “born to be in it” and the media would lick that up with a spoon and a pinch of bread and cleaned that plate up. Warren is great on policy but fuck the patriarchy she doesn’t have the charm and charisma we all love. HRC didn’t have it either. Every president after carter with the exception of Bush I has been the most charismatic of the bunch. Even trump has his appeal in that category. Show me the charismatic woman candidate that can say “I was born to be in it” and I’ll show you a viable female candidate. It’s both and ... yeah his privilege but also where is that woman that turns it upside down?

 

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EMAWesome

EMAWesome 101

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59 minutes ago, bolverk said:

You have forfeited any right to even utter the phrase "identity politics." Fuck you.

There are very few things I would love to do more than never utter the phrase "identity politics."  Get the Democrats to change their campaign strategies and their political and social philosophies and I will be glad to do it.

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bolverk

bolverk 30330

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18 minutes ago, troph said:

You know what? It’s the Texas mystique, its the fact that if Texas goes blue it’s game set match. It’s bravado, it’s charisma and the truth is - that is easier to pull of as a man - but women can have it too. At least tonight I think they can. Anne Richards would have been able to say she was “born to be in it” and the media would lick that up with a spoon and a pinch of bread and cleaned that plate up. Warren is great on policy but fuck the patriarchy she doesn’t have the charm and charisma we all love. HRC didn’t have it either. Every president after carter with the exception of Bush I has been the most charismatic of the bunch. Even trump has his appeal in that category. Show me the charismatic woman candidate that can say “I was born to be in it” and I’ll show you a viable female candidate. It’s both and ... yeah his privilege but also where is that woman that turns it upside down?

 

This is a really interesting hypothesis, and I think there's a lot of truth to it. Of course, it's a pretty well-known trope about the candidate you'd "like to have a beer with" is the one that wins the election but I don't think I've ever seen it apply to women.

Now, if that maxim is true, who are the women politicians that you'd like to drink with? And, how does that relate to their current image/appeal/charisma/charm? I certainly don't think that question remains solely in the province of masculinity because as you pointed out, Ann just had "it" (even though she was in recovery). Molly Ivins had it too.

Who are the current female contenders that this ephemeral quality would apply to? Harris, Klobuchar, Warren, Gabbard? If I had to choose, it'd probably be either Harris (she seems fun) or Warren (she seems smart).

On the male side? Buttigieg (sure because he's engaging), Beto (duh), Biden (well, aw shucks).

I think you get my point.

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NowThis

NowThis 931

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Posted (edited)

the Dem convention is going to be one hand grenade after another.  Must see TV.

btw, March 2019, why is this campaign starting so early? Seems earlier and earlier every time.   Wasn't the start in the June/July period in old times? 

Edited by NowThis
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11876

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NowThis said:

the Dem convention is going to be one hand grenade after another.  Must see TV.

btw, March 2019, why is this campaign starting so early? Seems earlier and earlier every time.   Wasn't the start in the June/July period in old times? 

And its been going since December.

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bolverk

bolverk 30330

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Posted
3 minutes ago, EMAWesome said:

There are very few things I would love to do more than never utter the phrase "identity politics."  Get the Democrats to change their campaign strategies and their political and social philosophies and I will be glad to do it.

One on side of the coin, we have segregationists and their descendants, as well as the wealthy, who fight to retain privilege. On the other, we have the historically oppressed who are fighting to gain or retain newly won rights. Do not pretend that your party doesn't use every "campaign strategy" and "political and social philosophy" it can come up with to protect its political identity.

By supporting Trump, you have made it abundantly clear that you will fight tooth and nail for your team (aka "identity"). It's what his campaign and every action as president has been about from the very beginning.

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troph

troph 25227

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Posted
This is a really interesting hypothesis, and I think there's a lot of truth to it. Of course, it's a pretty well-known trope about the candidate you'd "like to have a beer with" is the one that wins the election but I don't think I've ever seen it apply to women.
Now, if that maxim is true, who are the women politicians that you'd like to drink with? And, how does that relate to their current image/appeal/charisma/charm? I certainly don't think that question remains solely in the province of masculinity because as you pointed out, Ann just had "it" (even though she was in recovery). Molly Ivins had it too.
Who are the current female contenders that this ephemeral quality would apply to? Harris, Klobuchar, Warren, Gabbard? If I had to choose, it'd probably be either Harris (she seems fun) or Warren (she seems smart).
On the male side? Buttigieg (sure because he's engaging), Beto (duh), Biden (well, aw shucks).
I think you get my point.


Pelosi is honestly the closest to Ann Richards style female bravado IMO. RBG too but her style is obviously in the written word not presidential politics. Harris has is it too in her element of cross examining a witness. Warren does not have it at all and I really like her. But then on the men side Beto has it walking away. Booker too but after that not much. Biden has the machine no doubt. But that’s not charisma.
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Pelosi is honestly the closest to Ann Richards style female bravado IMO. RBG too but her style is obviously in the written word not presidential politics. Harris has is it too in her element of cross examining a witness. Warren does not have it at all and I really like her. But then on the men side Beto has it walking away. Booker too but after that not much. Biden has the machine no doubt. But that’s not charisma.
Biden is easily the "have a beer with" candidate and it's not really close.
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bad_teammate

bad_teammate 13524

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Sincere question: Have any of you who say Biden would be fun to have a beer with ever watched a full Joe Biden speech?

Beer Sharing Rank:
1 - Elizabeth Warren (gets pissed easily, would be fun to fantasize about destroying massive corporations, she's too damn smart to not be fun to talk to)
2 - Tulsi Gabbard (no comment)
3 - Andrew Yang (seems extremely human and like a real person)
4 - Amy Klobuchar (I want to hear these stories. I want the dirt on her beating interns to death)
5 - Pete Buttigieg (I want to know if he ever changes his demeanor or tone... ever)

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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Posted
3 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

And here comes the identity politics backlash against O'Rourke.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/15/beto-orourke-backlash-women-1223073

 

 

That article is terrible I must admit. Shooting yourselves in the foot is apparently still a ok. Maybe we should nominate Hillary again to meet the women quota and hope and pray she beats trump this one final last time.

Or on the other hand, maybe we should just wake up to current reality and adjust accordingly. And nominate whoever has the best chance to win. 

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troph

troph 25227

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Posted
Biden is easily the "have a beer with" candidate and it's not really close.

That wasn’t my phrase. I don’t think it’s “have a beer with” I think it’s charm, charisma and a I’ll follow you likeability that wins the presidency. I’ll drink a glass of fancy Bordeaux with Warren and talk policy all day long. Would I march for her or raise money for her? I dunno.
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