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Storm the Field

By Storm the Field
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Okie State
Okie State

All of it is extremely depressing to me. I used to have this naive belief that in the face of a real, global crisis, humanity would come together and solve the problem. That grown ups would take charg

Storm the Field
Storm the Field

Bingo. It's an artifact of youth. You don't care if it's 100 degrees when you're 12 years old and your only concern for 3 straight months is where you are swimming that day and which friend you're spe

Humpy
Humpy

I was going to spray weeds today but it started raining, will have to wait until tomorrow. Low of 55 tonight so open up the windows it is.

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MrBig

MrBig 5429

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Saw this chart showing cumulative freezing days versus cumulative 100 degree days. That angle change in 2000 is something...

image.png.cdb2b1f5c9d9301de1e24236eb5a9802.png

Look at how 2010 goes upward. I hate to get all conspiracy theory, but I feel like the BP oil spill really contributed to accelerating global warming. I know the amount of oil spilled into the ocean is just a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of water in there, but I can’t stop thinking of how the spill has only been 13 years ago and since then we’ve had 2 of the hottest summers on record and it’s snowed in Austin 2-3 times. 

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Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MrBig said:

Look at how 2010 goes upward. I hate to get all conspiracy theory, but I feel like the BP oil spill really contributed to accelerating global warming. I know the amount of oil spilled into the ocean is just a drop in the bucket compared to the amount of water in there, but I can’t stop thinking of how the spill has only been 13 years ago and since then we’ve had 2 of the hottest summers on record and it’s snowed in Austin 2-3 times. 

Can you explain?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89779

Posted
Posted (edited)

2nd Bastrop fire going, but only 30 acres.  First one is still around 100 acres but is 65% contained.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/bastrop-county/second-wildfire-in-bastrop-county-burns-almost-two-dozen-acres/

Quote

Officials said the Mesquite Field Fire is currently estimated at roughly 30 acres, as of about 3:45 p.m. Wednesday.

BCOEM said there is no containment of the fire, but added there are no evacuations necessary at this time.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/bastrop/home-evacuations-underway-due-to-bastrop-wildfire/

Didn't realize they had the planes going

Quote

Crews responded to a home on fire within the fire zone of a wildfire in Bastrop Wednesday just before noon, according to a KXAN reporter on the ground.

Reporter Nabil Remadna noted firefighters were able to get there quickly, and there are still hotspots popping up in the fire area. The fire, which is called the Powder Keg Pine Fire, is estimated at 100 acres and is 65% contained as of 3 p.m. Wednesday, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service.

Quote

In its Wednesday afternoon update, the forest service said gusty winds and afternoon temperatures have increased activity with the fire. Planes continue to drop water to cool those hotspots.

The Bastrop County Office of Emergency said in an update time-stamped 2 a.m. Wednesday that forward progression had stopped. At 8:45 a.m., the office said no evacuation orders were issued at the time, and Highway 71 was open.

 

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 3032

Posted
Posted (edited)

A lot of our recent drought-frequency can be probably be explained by the runaway +AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). We've largely been in a warm-phase since the mid-1990s. (see crazy ass water temps in the subtropical Atlantic for evidence of how strong the +AMO is these days). Some of Texas' coolest/wettest summers were in the 1970s-early 1990s in a very -AMO regime.

Spoiler

What is the AMO?

The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1°F between extremes. These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years.

How much of the Atlantic are we talking about?

Most of the Atlantic between the equator and Greenland changes in unison. Some area of the North Pacific also seem to be affected.

What phase are we in right now?

Since the mid-1990s we have been in a warm phase.

What are the impacts of the AMO?

The AMO has affected air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe. It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. It alternately obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to human-induced global warming.

How does the AMO affect rainfall and droughts?

Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent and/or severe (prolonged?). Vice-versa for negative AMO. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dustbowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite - warm AMO, more rainfall.

spacer.png

The +AMO regime we are currently in puts Texas (and the entire southwestern US) at the PDOs (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) mercy. You can think of the PDO as El Nino-La Nina on a slightly coarser time scale more reflective of true background atmospheric states. 

Spoiler

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999).

We are currently in a -PDO regime and have been since October 2019 (remember when it rained a lot last time in Central Texas? Yeah). 

spacer.png

With El Nino underway, we will hopefully transition into a +PDO regime which gives us a much greater chance of rain and cooler temps (2007, 2015-like weather) despite the +AMO regime. 

 

Red = greater chances of below normal precip

Blue = greater chances of above normal precip

spacer.png

tl; dr Warm ass Atlantic (+AMO) fucks our weather and makes us dependent on EPAC water temps and El Nino/PDO. Basically guarantees drought 50% of the time in Texas if the +AMO continues. This is where climate change can really fuck us- we need the Atlantic to cool the fuck off. Not likely.

Edited by Wilcox Cummingtonite
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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2281

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

A lot of our recent drought-frequency can be probably be explained by the runaway +AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). We've largely been in a warm-phase since the mid-1990s. (see crazy ass water temps in the subtropical Atlantic for evidence of how strong the +AMO is these days). Some of Texas' coolest/wettest summers were in the 1970s-early 1990s in a very -AMO regime.

  Reveal hidden contents

What is the AMO?

The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1°F between extremes. These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years.

How much of the Atlantic are we talking about?

Most of the Atlantic between the equator and Greenland changes in unison. Some area of the North Pacific also seem to be affected.

What phase are we in right now?

Since the mid-1990s we have been in a warm phase.

What are the impacts of the AMO?

The AMO has affected air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe. It is associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. It alternately obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to human-induced global warming.

How does the AMO affect rainfall and droughts?

Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent and/or severe (prolonged?). Vice-versa for negative AMO. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dustbowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite - warm AMO, more rainfall.

spacer.png

The +AMO regime we are currently in puts Texas (and the entire southwestern US) at the PDOs (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) mercy. You can think of the PDO as El Nino-La Nina on a slightly coarser time scale more reflective of true background atmospheric states. 

  Reveal hidden contents

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in the Pacific Basin and the North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. When SSTs are anomalously cool in the interior North Pacific and warm along the Pacific Coast, and when sea level pressures are below average over the North Pacific, the PDO has a positive value. When the climate anomaly patterns are reversed, with warm SST anomalies in the interior and cool SST anomalies along the North American coast, or above average sea level pressures over the North Pacific, the PDO has a negative value (Courtesy of Mantua, 1999).

We are currently in a -PDO regime and have been since October 2019 (remember when it rained a lot last time in Central Texas? Yeah). 

spacer.png

With El Nino underway, we will hopefully transition into a +PDO regime which gives us a much greater chance of rain and cooler temps (2007, 2015-like weather) despite the +AMO regime. 

 

Red = greater chances of below normal precip

Blue = greater chances of above normal precip

spacer.png

tl; dr Warm ass Atlantic (+AMO) fucks our weather and makes us dependent on EPAC water temps and El Nino/PDO. Basically guarantees drought 50% of the time in Texas if the +AMO continues. This is where climate change can really fuck us- we need the Atlantic to cool the fuck off. Not likely.

I don't know. 3 out of the 4 of those say cooler and wetter. Yet here we are. 

 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9523

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Apparently you jinxed us, as this is the new forecast

7_day_forecast_876.jpg?v=5636797

4 x 107

2x 108

And the lowest high this coming week - 103.

Until Sunday, when that too will become 107/108.

You’re not fooling anyway, KXAN.

thankfully I’m leaving Monday for a place where the highs equal our lows. 

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Pods

Pods 7586

Posted
Posted (edited)

Anyone who isn't blocked by an HOA/leasing office should get a window AC unit, or a portable. Even if they disallow window units, most of them allow portables. 

This isn't going to relent for a while still and it's worth a few hundred bucks not to be miserable when you're trying to sleep. Long term, mine saves money by not having to cool the rest of the house off as much. 

If it helps anyone, here's the Wirecutter reviews. 

https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/best-air-conditioner/

And here are the consumer reports for each BTU category. Portables are the last one. 

 

A9C1AAEE-7D4E-4BFF-9A96-43C889FCF148.jpeg

186A7FFA-C43A-41BA-B3CE-AC45FAC7FB05.jpeg

69FA8435-6465-44DC-BD2E-556E04077E30.jpeg

9C8A6BB0-79D4-407F-A6D3-3DD17A66167D.jpeg

1FACAB86-7A8F-4AE1-81F9-41F3B24C433B.jpeg

Edited by Pods
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Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 3032

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

I don't know. 3 out of the 4 of those say cooler and wetter. Yet here we are. 

 

Yes, but the very +AMO regime we are in puts us at the Pacific's/El Nino's mercy every year. If things keep going this way (water temps increasing in the Atlantic basin each year), the +AMO essentially guarantees significant drought in Texas at least 50% of the time.

That's a big deal IMO.

 

Edited by Wilcox Cummingtonite
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Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 3032

Posted
Posted (edited)

Another thing to consider on those maps is how much the +AMO fucks a large portion of the U.S. drought-wise (regardless of -PDO or +PDO) compared w/ the background state of the -AMO which is overall more favorable for most of the US.

We really need the Atlantic to cool the fuck down (fuck...)

200.gif

Edited by Wilcox Cummingtonite
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5301

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Posted

Not that this is some grand discovery, but just got back from lunch and it hit me how much the almost complete absence of clouds has contributed to the suckage these past few weeks.

Actually a little bit of cloud cover today, so decided to pop over to a favorite lunch spot that's maybe a 6-7 minute walk from my office for the first time in weeks. First few minutes of the walk were not bad at all. Very warm, but not particularly unpleasant. As soon as the sun popped out from behind the clouds, it felt like someone had aimed a space heater on full blast directly at my head. Instant transition from "Hey, this ain't so bad" to "curses upon this wretched town."

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gmr548

gmr548 16608

Posted
Posted
The Poison Ivey growing on the fence at my construction yard/office is withering, turning brown, and dieing..  Poison Ivey!!!.
What's next? Are fire ants going to leave and go north?

I’ve noticed mosquitoes are significantly less bad in Houston this summer. It’s too hot and dry for them to really thrive.

So there’s that.
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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26077

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


I’ve noticed mosquitoes are significantly less bad in Houston this summer. It’s too hot and dry for them to really thrive.

So there’s that.

Yep, was talking to a buddy about that. We usually get hammered in San Marcos (Not like Houston for sure) but the breeding ground near my house has been dry for a long time. 

Blessings? 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89779

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Yeah, 2011 is in the rearview mirror. Now 27 days of consecutive 100+ which ties the record from that year. Looking at another 10 or so in a row, minimum.

F this. 

4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Who’s taking action? The number 46 came to home in a dream.

If Weather.com is right, we will easily hit 40 days in a row.

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