Blastfurnace 2023

[dcar00 14031]

Just now, Hate said:

Depends on the post.

oh so its completely subjective then...got it.

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

19 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m merely pointing out that it’s a shitty way of displaying data because we could go through a 10 year period of not having a single 105 degree day, and the graph would be flat and would be argued by you that that period was the aberration rather than the period we just went through.

When could that happen? Will it be soon? That would be great, because it would mean that the climate had changed and the graph would show that, too. 
Sadly, however, it’s unlikely to do that outside of a major, climate changing particulate event like a Krakatoa level volcano eruption that would come with its own problems, like huge crop failures and mass starvation. 
Either way, the graph shows climate. You’re complaining because it doesn’t contemplate the future. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

7 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I thought daily texan was no politics zone

It is. That doesn’t make it a safe space for your politics. 

[Trey3216 15325]

4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

When could that happen? Will it be soon? That would be great, because it would mean that the climate had changed and the graph would show that, too. 
Sadly, however, it’s unlikely to do that outside of a major, climate changing particulate event like a Krakatoa level volcano eruption that would come with its own problems, like huge crop failures and mass starvation. 
Either way, the graph shows climate. You’re complaining because it doesn’t contemplate the future. 

No, it would mean climate ebbed back to normalized.  The graph shows a collection of data points in a manner that only suits a particular argument.  Cumulative days at a temperature is cute, but it is not climate and it is not how data normalization works.  
 

it’s an incomplete data set

Edited August 16, 2023 by Trey3216

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

No, it would mean climate ebbed back to normalized.  The graph shows a collection of data points in a manner that only suits a particular argument.  Cumulative days at a temperature is cute, but it is not climate and it is not how data normalization works.  

I hate to break this to you, but that’s wrong, and part of how you can tell is that your point requires a conjecture* to come true in which case the picture would be more convenient for you, and maybe you would  like it better, too. 
The data tells a story. I’m sorry that it’s not the story you want. I don’t want it either. This is very likely the new normal. 
 

*the conjecture being that the climate will in fact return to the “normalized” level you speculate it will. As you know from trading - we all have an instinct to bet on reversals driven by bias, not facts. Reversals happen, but there’s no reason to think this will reverse.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[Js1 85095]

14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

it’s unlikely to do that outside of a major, climate changing particulate event like a Krakatoa level volcano eruption that would come with its own problems, like huge crop failures and mass starvation. 

[Trey3216 15325]

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I hate to break this to you, but that’s wrong, and part of how you can tell is that your point requires a speculation to come true in which case the picture would be more convenient for you, and maybe you would  like it better, too. 
The data tells a story. I’m sorry that it’s not the story you want. I don’t want it either. 

All data tells a story, but it doesn’t tell the entire story.  I’m quite positive the cumulative number of 105 degree days is higher than that to be honest.  We don’t have all the data.  We don’t have all the data of how many days below 20 there have been either.   We weren’t around when Austin was 100 feet underneath the ocean.   We bitch and buy into the CO2 argument, but CO2 is what plants “eat”.  The only reason why we can grow more food product than we’ve ever grown is the amount of co2 in the air combined with advanced farming techniques and fertilizer.  I recycle.  I’ve carpool our kids to school with my SiL.   I have battery powered lawn equipment.  I had a car that got 50 mpg until it got totaled.    I catch and release unless we are truly just trying to stick the freezer (same with hunting) I water to keep my trees and grass alive, not to win awards for best yard    I actually do shit with my time to help with things rather than run my mouth and crack people’s wallets like some people do.   
 

so bitch at me all you want about “my beliefs”, lol, when we all want the same thing.  But this is shitty data displayed in a shitty way, and you know it.   
 

I guess I could make a graph of cumulative bureaucrats bought and paid for by x, y and z corporations and it would look the exact fucking same.  
 

UT’s cumulative football wins have gone up the past few years too.   That making you feel good? 

[Brisketexan 104561]

All data tells a story, but it doesn’t tell the entire story.  I’m quite positive the cumulative number of 105 degree days is higher than that to be honest.  We don’t have all the data.  We don’t have all the data of how many days below 20 there have been either.   We weren’t around when Austin was 100 feet underneath the ocean.   We bitch and buy into the CO2 argument, but CO2 is what plants “eat”.  The only reason why we can grow more food product than we’ve ever grown is the amount of co2 in the air combined with advanced farming techniques and fertilizer.  I recycle.  I’ve carpool our kids to school with my SiL.   I have battery powered lawn equipment.  I had a car that got 50 mpg until it got totaled.    I catch and release unless we are truly just trying to stick the freezer (same with hunting) I water to keep my trees and grass alive, not to win awards for best yard    I actually do shit with my time to help with things rather than run my mouth and crack people’s wallets like some people do.   
 
so bitch at me all you want about “my beliefs”, lol, when we all want the same thing.  But this is shitty data displayed in a shitty way, and you know it.   
 
I guess I could make a graph of cumulative bureaucrats bought and paid for by x, y and z corporations and it would look the exact fucking same.  
 
UT’s cumulative football wins have gone up the past few years too.   That making you feel good? 

So….the RATE at which things increase doesn’t mean anything to you?

And yes, while we only have 125 years or so of exact temp data, we have hundreds (and even thousands) of years of comparable temp indicators. Every single way you look at it shows a massive, statistically significant spike, globally, in the past 20 years.

Climate has indeed shifted before. Slowly. Not in 20 fucking years, absent a Krakatoa etc.

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

All data tells a story, but it doesn’t tell the entire story.  I’m quite positive the cumulative number of 105 degree days is higher than that to be honest.  We don’t have all the data.  We don’t have all the data of how many days below 20 there have been either.  

We actually know a lot, but that graph is of the official records from Austin at Camp Mabry. That said, you're sort of committing the "just asking questions" fallacy combined with the "were you there" fallacy. 
 

 

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We bitch and buy into the CO2 argument, but CO2 is what plants “eat”.  The only reason why we can grow more food product than we’ve ever grown is the amount of co2 in the air combined with advanced farming techniques and fertilizer.

You are certainly correct that farming techniques and fertilizer are important to sustaining life, but increased CO2 is not an unalloyed benefit to food agriculture from the Lancet:  

Greenhouse gas emissions are affecting the quantity and quality of our food in two ways. First, they are driving anthropogenic climate change, which decreases yields of major cereal crops in some regions. Increased temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, increased ozone concentrations, and more frequent and extreme heatwaves, floods, and droughts can reduce crop yields, particularly in the tropics, with risks increasing with additional warming depending on the region. Lower crop yields increase stunting and wasting, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Second, increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2)—by directly affecting plants—worsen the nutritional quality of food by decreasing protein and mineral concentrations by 5–15%, and B vitamins by up to a 30%. Higher CO2 concentrations increase photosynthesis in C3 plants (eg, wheat, rice, potatoes, barley), which can increase crop yields. But those increases come at the cost of lower nutritional quality as plants accumulate more carbohydrates and less minerals (eg, iron and zinc), which can negatively affect human nutrition.
 

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

 I recycle.  I’ve carpool our kids to school with my SiL.   I have battery powered lawn equipment.  I had a car that got 50 mpg until it got totaled.    I catch and release unless we are truly just trying to stick the freezer (same with hunting) I water to keep my trees and grass alive, not to win awards for best yard    I actually do shit with my time to help with things rather than run my mouth and crack people’s wallets like some people do.   

Good for you.

11 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

so bitch at me all you want about “my beliefs”, lol, when we all want the same thing.  But this is shitty data displayed in a shitty way, and you know it.   

I didn't bitch at you about your "beliefs". Or use the word beliefs. You bitched about the analytic design not illustrating your hopes for a future where the measurable reality we all share goes back to how things used to be before the consensus that existed about this stuff 30 years ago turned out to be true. 

 

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I guess I could make a graph of cumulative bureaucrats bought and paid for by x, y and z corporations and it would look the exact fucking same.  

There's the good stuff. 
 

 

16 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

UT’s cumulative football wins have gone up the past few years too.   That making you feel good? 

No! because you see the graph would show a  far more gradual increase than I'd like. Just as this graph shows an accelerating increase.  

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Honestly that might be the least bad option, sad to say. 

[Trey3216 15325]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So….the RATE at which things increase doesn’t mean anything to you?

And yes, while we only have 125 years or so of exact temp data, we have hundreds (and even thousands) of years of comparable temp indicators. Every single way you look at it shows a massive, statistically significant spike, globally, in the past 20 years.

Climate has indeed shifted before. Slowly. Not in 20 fucking years, absent a Krakatoa etc.

And in some of those eras England had the climate of the grape growing regions of France and also the winters of Nordic countries.   (and that’s in recorded history minus the temperature recordings).   
 

they’ve had both of those in written history and in the past 350 years.   
 

how much concrete has been built around Mabry in the last 30 years?   That’s about 97% of the reason the data reads as it does    

 

[Trey3216 15325]

Anyway.   Moving along.   Great day outside today.   Never even broke a sweat.   Which is pretty nice on day 1 of school having to carry the 2 year old and all her shit to the classroom, take pics and the like.   Supposed to be sun 70 in the morning.   I’m ready 

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

 

1 hour ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Then you have the extreme temperatures of dust bowl

I agree with you generally in this post but the Dust Bowl period was the 30s. What you see on the Mabry graph was the very hot July-Aug of 1923 and 1925. After 1925, Austin didn't hit 105 again until one day in 1934, and then twice in 1936.  It hit 105 once more in 1939, and didn't hit 105 again until 1951. 

[HOOKEM4 5017]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

And in some of those eras England had the climate of the grape growing regions of France and also the winters of Nordic countries.   (and that’s in recorded history minus the temperature recordings).   
 

they’ve had both of those in written history and in the past 350 years.   
 

how much concrete has been built around Mabry in the last 30 years?   That’s about 97% of the reason the data reads as it does    

 

Holy shit dude. Are you missing the key point here? I mean you have to know it right?

The only thing man had to do with this is...checks notes....the very shit causing this. 

Come the fuck on trey.

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Holy shit dude. Are you missing the key point here? I mean you have to know it right?

The only thing man had to do with this is...checks notes....the very shit causing this. 

Come the fuck on trey.

Yet you buy into spending untold trillions on economic and social fixing of the “problem” is actually going to “fix it”.  Have fun with your “final…errr…international solution” 

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

how much concrete has been built around Mabry in the last 30 years?   That’s about 97% of the reason the data reads as it does    

No it isn't. Yes, there's an urban heat island in Austin. That's why the official reading isn't downtown. It's not Camp Mabry. Mabry is mainly greenspace. It's actually greener and more lush than it was 100 years ago. 
This is really basic stuff. 

13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

And in some of those eras England had the climate of the grape growing regions of France and also the winters of Nordic countries.   (and that’s in recorded history minus the temperature recordings).   
 

they’ve had both of those in written history and in the past 350 years.

Are you familiar with the Maunder Minimum?
 

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

Yet you buy into spending untold trillions on economic and social fixing of the “problem” is actually going to “fix it”.

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

You know, the great thing about untold trillions is that they are untold. 

[HOOKEM4 5017]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yet you buy into spending untold trillions on economic and social fixing of the “problem” is actually going to “fix it”.  Have fun with your “final…errr…international solution” 

I did? I am starting with the admitting a problem exists. Beyond that I have no aspirations because..... The problem is that despite the obvious, we have a vast majority of folks that don't believe it is a problem so we cannot work to a solution. So we all die, or our kids will suffer and we will argue if it is real while it happens in front of our stupid fucking eyes. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

7 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

I did? 

Of course you did.  By not saying anything about spending untold trillions you are increasing their untoldedness. In fact, you may not believe we should spend untold trillions, which would make the untold spending even more unbelievable. 

[HOOKEM4 5017]

Also my favorite take  is that we cant fix anything so fuckit. Imagine if our forefathers had that take. The British are coming "well we can't do anything about it"  it is such a shit take. We can do something about it. We are Americans and lead the damn world. If we decide an issue is an issue, we can make it happen. Tomorrow? No, but we can influence as a unified world developed nations front. When we decide things because Shell told our preferred news outlet to say something and we can't see the obvious, we are screwed. No matter how smart you think you are, you are just sack riding an og company. But I have seen enough here to know you are not gonna bite the hand that feeds you trey.

[Trey3216 15325]

3 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Also my favorite take  is that we cant fix anything so fuckit. Imagine if our forefathers had that take. The British are coming "well we can't do anything about it"  it is such a shit take. We can do something about it. We are Americans and lead the damn world. If we decide an issue is an issue, we can make it happen. Tomorrow? No, but we can influence as a unified world developed nations front. When we decide things because Shell told our preferred news outlet to say something and we can't see the obvious, we are screwed. No matter how smart you think you are, you are just sack riding an og company. But I have seen enough here to know you are not gonna bite the hand that feeds you trey.

I’ve never said “we can’t fix anything , so fuck it.”  I’ve also never said “it’s all our fault, look at the data!!”  That’s the crux of the issue.  We can do things to be stewards because they are good things to do.  There are other things that we can try to do, that we have no idea if they will or will not work.   We can do some of them too.  Awesome.  
 

we cannot fully  control the fucking temperature of the planet.  It is not a thermostat you just turn down or up    

unless our best solution is to kill off mankind or a large chunk thereof (which is the goal/end game of quite a few AGCC profiteers, and I’m sure quite a few of y’all wouldn’t mind either (especially if it was the other team!!!!!))

 

Earth is a chaotic system    It has been changing from time immemorial and will change until the sun goes red tits up in a few billion years    Let’s try to be better, but thinking that we actually have control over everything is as fucking simpletonian as thinking the earth is flat    
 

we’ve got to do better, but the “better” that’s been put out there is fascist as you want to believe every person right of Chomsky is    
 

political polarization is idiotic, and will get us nowhere    Yet you see it being lapped up like Pavlov’s puppy in every nook and cranny of society today.    Halle-fucking-lujah 

 

what a first day of school for the kids!  

 

[Trey3216 15325]

19 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Also my favorite take  is that we cant fix anything so fuckit. Imagine if our forefathers had that take. The British are coming "well we can't do anything about it"  it is such a shit take. We can do something about it. We are Americans and lead the damn world. If we decide an issue is an issue, we can make it happen. Tomorrow? No, but we can influence as a unified world developed nations front. When we decide things because Shell told our preferred news outlet to say something and we can't see the obvious, we are screwed. No matter how smart you think you are, you are just sack riding an og company. But I have seen enough here to know you are not gonna bite the hand that feeds you trey.

I don’t work for an O&G company, or in that business in any form or fashion.  

[Pato del Muerto 52341]

So did any of you snap your 100 streak?

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

Shot:

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

we’ve got to do better, but the “better” that’s been put out there is fascist as you want to believe every person right of Chomsky is    

Chaser:

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

political polarization is idiotic, and will get us nowhere    Yet you see it being lapped up like Pavlov’s puppy in every nook and cranny of society today.

 

[Trey3216 15325]

4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Shot:

Chaser:

 

It’s really fun to do.   You should try it sometime….. 

[Trey3216 15325]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So did any of you snap your 100 streak?

Yep.   We only got to 98 today.  Overnight low predicted at 67.   I may go sleep in the front yard.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Earth is a chaotic system    It has been changing from time immemorial and will change until the sun goes red tits up in a few billion years  

That's true. Are you familiar with the Maunder minimum? Earlier you referred to the pre-industrial period when most of Europe experienced temps much colder than they are now. Likewise the warmer period.  
Those cycles, over the last 400 years* coincide with sunspot cycles and periods of solar radiance.  Did you know that? So the Maunder minimum refers to the period of exceptionally low radiance from the 1640s - the 1710s that encompassed the so-called "Little Ice Age," i.e. lower temps.  It also reduced the frequency of hurricanes because they are mediated by warm oceans among other things.  The reverse was also true. Before that, higher radiance= higher temps. 

What do you think about that**? 




*although we have accurate temp data going back much farther, we've only been keeping written records about sun spots for about 400 years. 
** This is a trick question.  You may want to do some reading on this first before you answer.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’s really fun to do.   You should try it sometime….. 

lapping things up? I'll take your word for it. 

[Trey3216 15325]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

That's true. Are you familiar with the Maunder minimum? Earlier you referred to the pre-industrial period when most of Europe experienced temps much colder than they are now. Likewise the warmer period.  
Those cycles, over the last 400 years* coincide with sunspot cycles and periods of solar radiance.  Did you know that? So the Maunder minimum refers to the period of exceptionally low radiance from the 1640s - the 1710s that encompassed the so-called "Little Ice Age," i.e. lower temps.  It also reduced the frequency of hurricanes because they are mediated by warm oceans among other things.  The reverse was also true. Before that, higher radiance= higher temps. 

What do you think about that**? 




*although we have accurate temp data going back much farther, we've only been keeping written records about sun spots for about 400 years. 
** This is a trick question.  You may want to do some reading on this first before you answer.

Wow!!  

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Wow!!  

So do you have a hypothesis?

[Hate 20103]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

So do you have a hypothesis?

If it lasts more than 4 hours, he should see a doctor.

[Trey3216 15325]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

So do you have a hypothesis?

Oooo!!   Can we factor in obliquity, eccentricity and precession too?!?!   Could really be fun 

[InkaUtexas 25497]

Will you two get a room? Please. 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

13 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Oooo!!   Can we factor in obliquity, eccentricity and precession too?!?!   Could really be fun 

I see google took you to the NASA article about Milankovitch cycles. Great. If it's relevant to what you think about the Maunder minimum and the relationship between the irradiance of the sun and short term climate change over the last 400 years, knock yourself out. Got a hypothesis?

Edited August 16, 2023 by Bozo_Casanova

[Born to Run 6565]

Had to be in the Zilker area last night and decided to jump into BSP for 45 minutes.  Oh man... I swear that water is magical.  You swim for a bit and then your body is cooled down and air conditioned for the next hour.  Amazing.  After that swim, I could've hung outside for a while.  Mind you, I was done at 7:45 so I wasn't dealing with the bonkers heat but it was still 98 or something crazy when I got out.

Welcome to the party pal.

I'm upper Lake Austin, water is 68. Soak in that after the gym for 30 min then feel amazing enough that yard work at 730 pm is fine. I do a lot of my cardio on the lake as well. Swim, various paddle techniques. Save running and bikes for fairer weather when I can.

[Hate 20103]

2 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Welcome to the party pal.

I'm upper Lake Austin, water is 68. Soak in that after the gym for 30 min then feel amazing enough that yard work at 730 pm is fine. I do a lot of my cardio on the lake as well. Swim, various paddle techniques. Save running and bikes for fairer weather when I can.

Hopefully you bike to work for the next 6 months.

[Born to Run 6565]

Here's a handy way to illustrate the difference between "weather" and "climate" for your old people and friends of a certain political persuasion to like to say "it's always been hot"

"I Feel that's inaccurate."

[Dnaguy 11770]

1 minute ago, Born to Run said:

4 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Here's a handy way to illustrate the difference between "weather" and "climate" for your old people and friends of a certain political persuasion to like to say "it's always been hot"

"I Feel that's inaccurate."

 

I feel my balls sticking to my leg.

[Born to Run 6565]

No, it would mean climate ebbed back to normalized.  The graph shows a collection of data points in a manner that only suits a particular argument.  Cumulative days at a temperature is cute, but it is not climate and it is not how data normalization works.  
 
it’s an incomplete data set

*whatever climate and resources we have left.

Empty oceans, burnt forest etc. Fuck them kids amirite?

[Pato del Muerto 52341]

13 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

I'm upper Lake Austin

[Biff Tannen 45491]

Very excited about tomorrow morning. 

[Born to Run 6565]

How much for a lake pass? This is Thunderdome.

[Born to Run 6565]

Hopefully you bike to work for the next 6 months.

And wear tight roadie shit? I have many offensive proclivities sir, but I'm strictly shitty at riding mountain bikes . No need to bring down Lance with his one nut and clock.

[mchookem 16197]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

unless our best solution is to kill off mankind or a large chunk thereof (which is the goal/end game of quite a few AGCC profiteers, and I’m sure quite a few of y’all wouldn’t mind either (especially if it was the other team!!!!!))

 

i don't know what the rest of this was meant to convey, but i mean with the direction we're headed the Earth is clearly planning to take care of the bolded part herself and we are just seeing the beginnings of her efforts.

George Carlin was right...Earth will be fine,  humans are the ones who are fucked. 

 

[MissingInAction 24811]

Dumbass|dipshit × posts/rep × FUPM = ousux

[Willfully Horn 7913]

4 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Anyway.   Moving along.   Great day outside today.   Never even broke a sweat.   Which is pretty nice on day 1 of school having to carry the 2 year old and all her shit to the classroom, take pics and the like.   Supposed to be sun 70 in the morning.   I’m ready 

Two year olds go to school? Since when? 
 

I’m guessing daycare is now called school.

[Fudge Nuggets 19146]

Car temp said 77 this morning felt like 50. 

[Trey3216 15325]

4 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

Two year olds go to school? Since when? 
 

I’m guessing daycare is now called school.

They go to a private school that has classes for children before pre-k.  They have a curriculum, report cards, the whole deal.   Spanish lessons, music, art, gym, math.   It’s a very good program.   
 

so yes… daycare, but not really daycare. 
We had to buy the soon to be 3 year old uniforms this year   

 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Trey3216

[HenryJames 65887]

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

7 hours ago, mchookem said:

George Carlin was right...Earth will be fine,  humans are the ones who are fucked. 

That's right. And the irony of course is that these guys are arguing that we shouldn't go anything meaningful, or should in fact actually dump even more CO2 into the atmosphere to expand "human flourishing," which is a concept that has been latched onto in a number of coastal elite academic and business circles.