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Storm the Field

By Storm the Field
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89787

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hey, let's invite more developers to build homes in the aquifer. Case in point. Kyle, with a lot of growth, is asking for water from San Marcos. We are at Stage 4, Canyon Lake is in bad shape, but they (last I saw) are still at stage 3. 

And we need more vineyards. 

And more tech companies building stuff, because I'm sure they don't use a lot of water in the manufacturing process.

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Okie State
Okie State

All of it is extremely depressing to me. I used to have this naive belief that in the face of a real, global crisis, humanity would come together and solve the problem. That grown ups would take charg

Storm the Field
Storm the Field

Bingo. It's an artifact of youth. You don't care if it's 100 degrees when you're 12 years old and your only concern for 3 straight months is where you are swimming that day and which friend you're spe

Humpy
Humpy

I was going to spray weeds today but it started raining, will have to wait until tomorrow. Low of 55 tonight so open up the windows it is.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Clocked a total of 11 minutes of rain today in my neck of Houston.

8 minutes of moderate rain around 2:00. 3 minutes of heavy rain around 5:00.

Maybe 1/5 inch total. Still, by far, the most rain I've had in 2 months.

The 3 stations surrounding our house averaged 0.65, and that feels about right. Probably going to have to mow tomorrow now. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

Posted
Posted

One big pushback during the proposed transition for the U.S. to metric decades ago was that the temperatures were too wide of a gap.  Many centigrade numbers would cover 2 different degrees F, and even up to 3 depending on rounding.  I actually thought that was a valid point.  

Until the last 25 Texas summers.  Does it really fucking matter if it's 107 or 108?  Either way, It's 42* centigrade and it's a bullshit way to run a state.  

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5301

Posted
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Posted

SCW seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Quote

 

The end of the worst of the worst summer ever is finally on the horizon

Good morning. After parts of the Houston region received a decent soaking on Labor Day, the region has one more passable chance of rainfall today before the high heat returns through the weekend. And after that? Well, after that I think we’re done with 100-degree temperatures for awhile, and perhaps even for the entirety of 2023, although I’m not ready to stipulate that yet......

.....Hey Eric, didn’t you mention the “end of the worst summer ever” in the post’s title? Well, yes I did. And it wasn’t clickbait, I promise. The reality is that after the surge of heat to end this week, our pattern should shift to a slightly more moderate one that will feel a bit more like late summer. That is to say, for most of next week, we probably will see highs top out in the mid-90s—or even lower if we see the development of some afternoon showers. Which will be possible. The bottom line is that we’re probably looking at a little bit less sunshine, a little bit less heat, and possibly a little bit more rainfall. It’s not fall, but after this week, I think we can close the door on extreme heat for the summer of 2023. Small victories, right?

 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

Posted
Posted

Your mom took my banana in her tailpipe.  Or something.  

I'm seeing the temps coming down 10 degrees, but 10-20% chances of rain on a handful of days is hardly anything to start planning around.  I'm so fucking worried about my trees.  

I was talking with a colleague this weekend about moving myriad manufacturing platforms from China to the United States over the next 20 years.  And we both realized how much freshwater is required to make so many little electronics and plastic crap that we usually get from China.  And Americans likely will pay a bit more for the stuff and all the geopolitical implications of that.  And then I realized, where the fuck are we gonna get all the water to make this shit with?  We barely have enough to drink and water foundations.  Industry/manufacturing/Ag & Livestock/wholesale uses three quarters of our freshwater supply as it stands.  You start making rubber dog shit and kids' electronics over here, we're beyond fucked.  

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17462

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, mdmost said:

It's such a thoroughly depressing place. After we had lunch at a terrible chain restaurant, we drove to the "downtown" area so she could see the old Main Post Office that her dad worked at. It is so dead and depressing. Just a ghost town. There's about a 3 block radius of life but everything else is just abandoned. It reminded me of Amarillo's downtown where there's the dead zone not too far outside of it. I think the mesquite trees and red dirt are really what makes it so damn hot. Just no break in that miserable, desolate plain. All the rotting buildings and former oil refineries probably doesn't help. It's just a bleak place. Those mud falls don't make it any prettier.

I remember the minister who married us  gave me some great advice at one of the pre-marriage counseling sessions we had to do. He was her minister growing up and had moved to DFW.  He knew my wife really well. I got to the session about 20 minutes before her so we had plenty of time to chat about things. He told me to never take her back to Wichita Falls as there's nothing for her there outside of trips to see her parents and that it would be better if I just made her parents come to us. He said she had outgrown that place a long time ago and he could tell she was one of the lucky ones that was going to make it out of there and onto better things. All that was left in WF was depression for her. And boy, he's right. Whenever we go back there to visit her family, she's really down for the next few days. Almost like survivor's guilt. 

This makes me want to shoot myself.  Not literally, but holy bejeezus.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

They'll be fine until the first freeze and every tree in Austin comes crashing down. 

I laughed but that's a legit concern.  Driest/hottest summer in a long fucking while.  Lots of limbs snapping and trees dying.  I can prune for brush pickup later this month but it's gonna traumatize the shit outta some of my trees.  But I gotta do it because they've never been this brittle which will make the downed limbs during the freezes of 2021 and 2023 look like amateur hour.  City of Austin better divert some resources away from bullshit projects and hire temp crews and find temp equipment to trim 6 days a week, 2 7-hour shifts, October through December.  Or we're gonna have power outages that make Uganda look reliable.  As an armchair arborist, I have never seen more cracked/browned/nearly downed limbs around Austin in 27 years as I have in the last few weeks.  This will get ugly with anything more than a 12-hour hard freeze.  Nevermind the weight of precip.  

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18027

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, YGIFS said:

I laughed but that's a legit concern.  Driest/hottest summer in a long fucking while.  Lots of limbs snapping and trees dying.  I can prune for brush pickup later this month but it's gonna traumatize the shit outta some of my trees.  But I gotta do it because they've never been this brittle which will make the downed limbs during the freezes of 2021 and 2023 look like amateur hour.  City of Austin better divert some resources away from bullshit projects and hire temp crews and find temp equipment to trim 6 days a week, 2 7-hour shifts, October through December.  Or we're gonna have power outages that make Uganda look reliable.  As an armchair arborist, I have never seen more cracked/browned/nearly downed limbs around Austin in 27 years as I have in the last few weeks.  This will get ugly with anything more than a 12-hour hard freeze.  Nevermind the weight of precip.  

The great irony will be that the first major precipitation of the year will be during a freeze and it destroys what's left of the city's canopy. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105309

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Time for everyone to stock up on a good chainsaw, a few replacement blades, and an extendable/pole saw.  If you have trees that overhand areas that could compromise your house if they fall, have them trimmed or removed.  

Shit, we've still got to get the tree guys out to remove a few limbs that snapped during the freeze, but didn't fall all the way to the ground.  They've been sitting up in the trees (in our back yard area, where we aren't out under them, so no immediate hazard).  We waited until after all the major tree work would be done....and then still haven't called them.

Fortunately, we did MAJOR tree trimming before the ice storm last year, so we didn't lose much.  Then again, now are trees are super-stressed by the heat and drought, so who knows how they'll fare.

This fucking hellscape, man.  Broil or freeze, pick your poison.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15312

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Shit, we've still got to get the tree guys out to remove a few limbs that snapped during the freeze, but didn't fall all the way to the ground.  They've been sitting up in the trees (in our back yard area, where we aren't out under them, so no immediate hazard).  We waited until after all the major tree work would be done....and then still haven't called them.

Fortunately, we did MAJOR tree trimming before the ice storm last year, so we didn't lose much.  Then again, now are trees are super-stressed by the heat and drought, so who knows how they'll fare.

This fucking hellscape, man.  Broil or freeze, pick your poison.

If you have larger trees set up a dripline akin to what they set for foundations around the trees to help keep them hydrated and it doesn't have the negative evaporation and runoff of a typical sprinkler.  

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15312

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, texasdago said:

on your city-approved watering day #rage

It's a submerged dripline with zero way to tell when you are running and when you are not without inspecting the soil up close.  They also use a fraction of the water a surface sprinkler uses/wastes.  If it keeps decades old oaks alive and you are feeling guilty, cut back your usual sprinkler times by a few minutes to balance out the water use.  

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ztejas

ztejas 43532

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, YGIFS said:

One big pushback during the proposed transition for the U.S. to metric decades ago was that the temperatures were too wide of a gap.  Many centigrade numbers would cover 2 different degrees F, and even up to 3 depending on rounding.  I actually thought that was a valid point.  

Until the last 25 Texas summers.  Does it really fucking matter if it's 107 or 108?  Either way, It's 42* centigrade and it's a bullshit way to run a state.  

Fahrenheit is a better scale for measuring earth air temp. If it's over 100 it's really fucking hot. If it's below 0 it's really fucking cold. It's very intuitive. 

Celsius is better for scientific applications and water temp. Since, you know, it's based around freezing and boiling points. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26089

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

Time for everyone to stock up on a good chainsaw, a few replacement blades, and an extendable/pole saw.  If you have trees that overhand areas that could compromise your house if they fall, have them trimmed or removed.  

Have a very large Pecan tree that never leafed out this year. Dropping limbs. It is right over the parking spaces. Have put in multiple requests to have it worked on, but no one is available. Trees are taking a beating. 

 

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6569

Posted
Posted
I laughed but that's a legit concern.  Driest/hottest summer in a long fucking while.  Lots of limbs snapping and trees dying.  I can prune for brush pickup later this month but it's gonna traumatize the shit outta some of my trees.  But I gotta do it because they've never been this brittle which will make the downed limbs during the freezes of 2021 and 2023 look like amateur hour.  City of Austin better divert some resources away from bullshit projects and hire temp crews and find temp equipment to trim 6 days a week, 2 7-hour shifts, October through December.  Or we're gonna have power outages that make Uganda look reliable.  As an armchair arborist, I have never seen more cracked/browned/nearly downed limbs around Austin in 27 years as I have in the last few weeks.  This will get ugly with anything more than a 12-hour hard freeze.  Nevermind the weight of precip.  
I'm not too worried about all the downed limbs and dead trees killing power The great late September Wildfires will burn them all up pronto.


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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

Posted
Posted

I forgot about the pending wildfires.  

Affiliate Meteorologist, "Here's what those September fires mean for Christmas Hurricane season.  Tornado hail expected on New Year's, so you volcano refugees pay attention to ERCOT warnings.  Those of you not in the boiling ocean water, enjoy your time at the beach---where some bizarre reason, we're keeping an eye out on an northern hemisphere cyclone during this next ice storm.  Back to you, Janet." 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5301

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The long-range forecasts seem to finally be reflecting a slight pattern shift next week, but nothing particularly dramatic, and not really anything that someone would consider a "cold front." Whatever makes it down to Texas looks like it'll have more significant effects on Panhandle and DFW area than Austin or Houston. 

Bunch of 95/74 days listed for Houston starting on 9/12, which, albeit an improvement, is still ~3 degrees above the average high and low for the the time of year. 

7 days away is towards the outer limits of forecast models being worth much of anything, so I won't really start feeling any confidence that it'll happen unless/until the forecast is still looking that way as of around Friday. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105309

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Something tells me we are going to get fucked this winter. 

This timeline.  This timeline is telling you that.  Because we've learned, these are the two temperatures in Texas now:

terminator-atomic.gif

AND

FxJvk.jpg

Those are your choices.  They are the only two choices available.  And guess what?  You don't even get to choose.  They'll just happen when they happen.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45724

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

This timeline.  This timeline is telling you that.  Because we've learned, these are the two temperatures in Texas now:

terminator-atomic.gif

AND

FxJvk.jpg

Those are your choices.  They are the only two choices available.  And guess what?  You don't even get to choose.  They'll just happen when they happen.

And sometimes in February you are lucky enough to get both.

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Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 3032

Posted
Posted (edited)
Spoiler

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023

Weak cyclonic flow aloft along with daytime heating and the
seabreeze may be enough to kick off some isolated convection this
afternoon over portions of the coastal plains and Highway 77
corridor. Chances are low and will maintain 20% Pops in the forecast
in case a shower or storm manages to develop. Otherwise, hot
temperatures continue this afternoon and early evening with heat
index values peaking in the 104 to near 107 degree range this
afternoon. A Special Weather Statement for the elevated heat index
values remains in effect for portions of the Rio Grande plains and
counties along and east of the I-35 corridor through early evening.

It will be warm overnight with continued southeast and some patchy
morning cloud cover keeping lows generally in the 70s to lower 80s.
The weak area of cyclonic flow in the mid and upper levels continue
to drop into south Texas tomorrow. Any weak lift along with daytime
heating and adequate moisture may allow for some afternoon
convection to develop near the coastal plains. Some of the hi-res
models are also hinting at the possibility of convection developing
just north of our region tomorrow afternoon. If convection manages
to develop over northwest Texas along a cold front, then we may see
an outflow boundary drop southward toward portions of the Hill
Country tomorrow. If this occurs, we may need to add a low chance
for showers and storms to portions of the Hill country and nearby I-
35 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Sep 5 2023


The long term forecast begins with a warming trend and good
possibilities for heat headlines starting on Thursday through at
least Saturday across most areas of south central Texas. Thursday`s
highs are expected to range from the mid 90s across the southern
Edwards Plateau and up to 106 degrees along Interstate 35 and the
coastal plains. Heat index values could reach up to 111. Even hotter
conditions are forecast for Friday with highs in the upper 90s across
the southern Edwards Plateau and from 100 to 108 across the rest of
the local area with heat indices as high as 112.

Continued hot and humid on Saturday with highs in the upper 90s and
up to 106 with mostly sunny skies through mid afternoon. Clouds
could start developing mid to late afternoon into early evening as
an upper level short wave pushes down from central Texas into the
Hill Country. Can`t rule out a few showers and thunderstorms across
the Hill Country and areas along and east of a Fredericksburg, New
Braunfels to Cuero line. Otherwise, dry and hot.

By Sunday, the subtropical high weakens a bit and allows a few weak
disturbances to push down from central Texas to our local area along
the eastern periphery of the high. This scenario brings another
round of showers and thunderstorms for areas along and east of a
Fredericksburg, San Antonio and Karnes City line. Rainfall amounts
are likely limited with only a few places getting one tenth of an
inch or so.

Are you ready for cooler weather? We are guessing the answer is
affirmative. On that note, Monday`s highs are expected to be around
the mid to upper 90s with a few locations reaching the 100 degree
mark in addition to slight to low end chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and the
coastal plains. A cold front is forecast to push across the local
area on Tuesday with chances for showers and thunderstorms across
most of south central Texas. Tuesday`s highs across some parts of
the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to only reach the
upper 80s while the rest of the local area stays in the low to mid
90s. Overnight lows will feel fantastic Wednesday morning as
temperatures drop to the mid 60s.

Good news

Edited by Wilcox Cummingtonite
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