Blastfurnace 2023

[Brisketexan 105441]

2 minutes ago, yoladu said:

yeah, not exactly Fall now, is it?  ..mid 90s for highs, low 70s for lows.

 

This coming week is going to feel more like July back in the 1970s

In New Texas, mid-90s IS fall weather.  Coulda sworn you got the memo.  You were on the routing sheet.

[YGIFS 19452]

To admit it's too hot right now for late September is to show weakness!  

I think the long game strategy here is the law of moving numbers.  By having the last 25 years at/near the top of the hottest/driest years in the last 125 years overall...even on the back end, it helps raise the overall average temps up a bit so that we no longer veer as much from the expected average high for a given day between May-October.  And as we get less and less rain, the expected rainfalls for a given month decrease over historical norms because 1/5th of the sampling has been done in this bullshit climate we call 1998-2023 in Texas.  If we keep getting hotter and hotter, later and later, and drier and drier, longer and longer.  Then we eventually close the gap between current conditions and the expected averages.  Pretty brilliant actually.  Super expensive and incredibly deadly, but smart.  

[Biff Tannen 45750]

Two rats fucking in a wet wool sock

[texasdago 7581]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

35 years later, it is still relevant and hilarious.  Have some rep

Anytime anyone says they are going to Detroit, that scene is burned into my head.

[Gatorubet 30321]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Two rats fucking in a wet wool sock

:Narrator:   The sock wasn’t really wet :/Narrator:

[atomheartbevo 89828]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

:Narrator:   The sock wasn’t really wet :/Narrator:

Not when they stared.

[closetohumping 17476]

[miguelito 11313]

No, this fall has cooled off to 100. Summer was 106.

[Guest]

Was sitting at my desk last week, the day before I flew out. All the sudden I realize the A/C -- which is 20 years old and just gone through the hottest summer in history is blowing hot air at 4 p.m. in the afternoon. I'm leaving at 6 a.m. the next morning. I have no idea what the issue is, but know the capacitors go out and can cause the issue. I drop everything and by 4:40 I'm at Ferguson 20 minutes before they close and grab a new one. 

Swap them out and it's back to running cold. 

But the real moral of the story? Fuck the blastfurnace. This is some bullshit.

[Guest]

Says it all... 80 days of 100 degrees and 95 for the first day of October:

[YGIFS 19452]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Was sitting at my desk last week, the day before I flew out. All the sudden I realize the A/C -- which is 20 years old and just gone through the hottest summer in history is blowing hot air at 4 p.m. in the afternoon. I'm leaving at 6 a.m. the next morning. I have no idea what the issue is, but know the capacitors go out and can cause the issue. I drop everything and by 4:40 I'm at Ferguson 20 minutes before they close and grab a new one. 

Swap them out and it's back to running cold. 

But the real moral of the story? Fuck the blastfurnace. This is some bullshit.

I need to check ours again.  I flushed the lines with vinegar, changed filters, and cleared out the exterior units.  I just figured we could give the damn thing a break here soon, but looks like another month of it running full-time.  If it's just a capacitor and we can wait until next year to change out the downstairs compressor, we should be fine.  But this is fucking insane.  We run ours pretty mild this summer.  Our neighbor's two units are pretty close to our bedroom window due to the goofy trapezoid shape of both our lots.  And they run theirs at 72* non-stop no matter if they are home or not.  And the downstairs unit is about 10-12 years old.  The thing hasn't stopped running all summer.  Every once in awhile, early in the morning, around 5am...it'll shut off and the lack of background actually wakes me up because I've just slept to the hum 24/7 for four months.  I should tell him to check his capacitor as well, but he'd think I was fucking with him from the DeLorean time machine (not a real DIY guy).  

Anyway, wife's priest cousin coming into town and staying with us.  He likes it very cold, so I'll check capacitor but only if he agrees to bless my two HVAV units.  He's not above it, last year he blessed the whole house...so what's a sub-blessing to the compressors?  

[Storm the Field 5302]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Says it all... 80 days of 100 degrees and 95 for the first day of October:

For a fun little kick in the nads, compare it to this same week last year. First strong front of the year arrived 1 year ago today and all but ended Summer for good. Following 2 weeks featured highs consistently below 90 and lows in the 60's, sometimes dropping into the 50's.

 

[Newdoc 3453]

I swear people are getting seasonal affective disorder from the persistent heat. We’re the opposite weather of Portland and Seattle with the same mental results and our women with hairy armpits stink a lot worse.

[MissingInAction 25204]

Went through 3 cans of ass deodorant this year. 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Newdoc said:

I swear people are getting seasonal affective disorder from the persistent heat. 

Fuck you you piece of shit. I'm not on edge because of the constant heat, motherfucker. I'll rip off your head and spit down your throat.  

[hookem2010 2625]

The two week forecast for Austin is essentially identical to current conditions, save for higher lows on the back end. We're having fun, right guys?!?

 

[hookem2010 2625]

I think it's about time to do away with historical averages and just go by averages over the last decade. At least our expectations will be lowered.

[atomheartbevo 89828]

32 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

I think it's about time to do away with historical averages and just go by averages over the last decade year. At least our expectations will be lowered.

Fixed.

[Storm the Field 5302]

September joins August in the "hottest (insert month) since reliable records exist" category. 

I've mentioned before, but "latest arrival of first cool front of the year" looks likely to be the next record to go down. Current record for Houston is 10/13, which happened way back in 1904. One of only 2 instances where it occurred after 10/10. In fact, it only happens after October 1st about 10% of the time (13 times in the last 134 years).

Long-range GFS models not showing anything worth a damn through 10/13 and the extended forecast through 10/11 STILL does not feature a number starting with a 6. 

This is a peculiar pet-peeve of mine, but I keep seeing people say shit on here/twitter/weather blogs like "I've lived here my whole life and it never cools down before November" and it's just so incredibly wrong. Hell, just last year, we got an extended front that arrived this exact week. It was in the 50's both mornings of the final weekend of September 2022. We hit the 40's 5 times during the last 2 weeks of October. 

 

 

[Guest]

Looooong term stuff shows something in mid-October. That far out, though, and it's anyone's guess:

[dcar00 14378]

35 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 

This is a peculiar pet-peeve of mine, but I keep seeing people say shit on here/twitter/weather blogs like "I've lived here my whole life and it never cools down before November" and it's just so incredibly wrong. Hell, just last year, we got an extended front that arrived this exact week. It was in the 50's both mornings of the final weekend of September 2022. We hit the 40's 5 times during the last 2 weeks of October. 

 

 

how can that possibly be?

[closetohumping 17476]

51 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Looooong term stuff shows something in mid-October. That far out, though, and it's anyone's guess:

Looks like Phoenix has finally chilled.

[Js1 85602]

54 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Looooong term stuff shows something in mid-October. That far out, though, and it's anyone's guess:

[YGIFS 19452]

so mid-October, Detroit should be 100* with the heat index.  That's totally normal right?  Probably God's punishment for all those electric cars they're making there?  

[texasdago 7581]

I anticipate rain in ACL weekend one and weekend two then back to chaos and destruction. 

[crash_davis 23115]

This morning in Austin, I teed off at 7:20am, walked 18 holes, and sweated my ass off. It's so fucking humid, and hot. Fuck this shit.

I decided to work remote starting tomorrow through next weekend. Looking at places in Colorado to get away from this bullshit.

[closetohumping 17476]

22 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

This morning in Austin, I teed off at 7:20am, walked 18 holes, and sweated my ass off. It's so fucking humid, and hot. Fuck this shit.

I decided to work remote starting tomorrow through next weekend. Looking at places in Colorado to get away from this bullshit.

Love Colorado and it’s somewhat driving distance to Texas

[Orange&White 5539]

I've got a long weekend in San Diego in the middle of October and another in Vancouver towards the end of the month. Just hoping I don't murder anyone prior to that.

Edited September 27, 2023 by Orange&White
wrong month

[Biff Tannen 45750]

I've got the Kansas game at 2:30 this weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Shit.

[Js1 85602]

14 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I've got the Kansas game at 2:30 this weekend.

 

Gonna be about 95 at kickoff, which is downright chilly for Texas considering they went through fall camp during 100+ blast furnace and it was 102 for Rice.

Good luck, Kansas.

[crash_davis 23115]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Gonna be about 95 at kickoff, which is downright chilly for Texas considering they went through fall camp during 100+ blast furnace and it was 102 for Rice.

Good luck, Kansas.

I think the Kansas players are going to die from the heat and humidity. Advantage aggy.

[Storm the Field 5302]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Looooong term stuff shows something in mid-October. That far out, though, and it's anyone's guess:

Latest GFS run from an hour ago has the most optimistic forecast in a looong time. Still very far out and will shock me if it persists in future runs, but they're now modeling a fairly strong, albeit short-lived front making it here sometime next weekend. Temps in the 60's with dewpoints in the 40's from 10/7 through 10/10. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2023092712&fh=246

Will keep an eye out and prepare for disappointment in future updates.

[Deej 76946]

15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Latest GFS run from an hour ago has the most optimistic forecast in a looong time. Still very far out and will shock me if it persists in future runs, but they're now modeling a fairly strong, albeit short-lived front making it here sometime next weekend. Temps in the 60's with dewpoints in the 40's from 10/7 through 10/10. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2023092712&fh=246

Will keep an eye out and prepare for disappointment in future updates.

[Storm the Field 5302]

4 minutes ago, Deej said:

Probably correct. ~240 hours out, it's little more than statistical noise. Previous run from 7 hours ago didn't pick it up at all. 

That said, if we get to the end of this weekend and are nearing the 120-hour range and there's something still showing up, I'll allow my hopes to start building. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26579]

On 9/26/2023 at 11:18 AM, Newdoc said:

I swear people are getting seasonal affective disorder from the persistent heat. 

They are
 

[Deej 76946]

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Deej said:

[cactusflinthead 27606]

Omega block?

THIS IS SUCH FUCKING BULLSHIT

 

[InkaUtexas 26172]

8 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Omega block?

THIS IS SUCH FUCKING BULLSHIT

 

Damn sorority girls. omegas tease and never put out. 

[Eskimohorn 5644]

I've got the Kansas game at 2:30 this weekend.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shit.

Missing hellish Kansas game for [checks notes] even more hellish outdoor wedding at 5pm wearing a monkey suit

[Born to Run 6569]

Missing hellish Kansas game for [checks notes] even more hellish outdoor wedding at 5pm wearing a monkey suit

Username does not check out.

Did Outdoor September wedding work for those other couples?

No, but it just might work for us!

[Welch 635]

8 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Latest GFS run from an hour ago has the most optimistic forecast in a looong time. Still very far out and will shock me if it persists in future runs, but they're now modeling a fairly strong, albeit short-lived front making it here sometime next weekend. Temps in the 60's with dewpoints in the 40's from 10/7 through 10/10. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2023092712&fh=246

Will keep an eye out and prepare for disappointment in future updates.

Latest model run still showing the front but not quite as cool.  And it’s the GFS, so it’s Generally Full of Shit.

Still, I think I’d sign up for these temps for Texas/OU.

[berlinerbaer 678]

NWS Houston forecasters are just saying fuck it at this point. This guy isn't even the comedian of the bunch.

Quote

Another way to take it is my main takeaway from the night shift`s
briefing to me this morning - conditions now are typically what we`d
expect to see in the summertime. Not the blast furnace summer that
we just experienced, but an actual normal summer. And in many ways,
that is what my forecast reflects. The NBM output seems to mostly be
putting forth this picture, so I didn`t have to make much more than
minor tweaks. Somebody should probably tell the atmosphere that
while it is a very lovely summer pattern it`s giving us, we`re going
into October now and maybe we should consider doing some more
autumnal things.

 

[Brisketexan 105441]

Omega block?
THIS IS SUCH FUCKING BULLSHIT
 

An Omega Mu block would be even bigger and uglier.
But they do know how to party.

[Blotto 23584]

10 hours ago, crash_davis said:

This morning in Austin, I teed off at 7:20am, walked 18 holes, and sweated my ass off. It's so fucking humid, and hot. Fuck this shit.

I decided to work remote starting tomorrow through next weekend. Looking at places in Colorado to get away from this bullshit.

Do it. Was in Park City last weekend and it was 28 walking back to my place the first night. Now I'm in MT and have just about convinced myself I need to move to Whitefish. Between the glorious weather and edibles, I'm walking around like Simple Jack up here. 

 

 

[YChang 3463]

Very very enjoyable week so far here in Seattle. Eating some fantastic seafood, Astros take the series…. 60 degree days. Sigh… going home tomorrow. 

[South Austin 52629]

8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

An Omega Mu block would be even bigger and uglier.
But they do know how to party.

 

[Ten Bears 2483]

17 hours ago, YChang said:

Very very enjoyable week so far here in Seattle. Eating some fantastic seafood, Astros take the series…. 60 degree days. Sigh… going home tomorrow. 

negged

[Storm the Field 5302]

DISCLAIMER: ANALYSIS, NOT PREDICTION!!!

Last 5 GFS model runs all staying consistent, and extended weather forecasts are now starting to buy in on a "better late than never" arrival of Fall's first front a week from today, coming on the heels of some possible rain Wednesday. Unfortunately, gonna continue to feel like Neverending Summer until then.

Doesn't look like temps are expected to come down drastically, maybe ~10 degrees off current highs and ~5 degrees off current lows, but dewpoints look to plummet a good 30 degrees, meaning that it would feel exponentially more pleasant.

Also nice to see that, AS OF NOW, this appears to be more than a 2-3 day flash in the pan. Forecast after next weekend doesn't immediately revert back to hot and swampy. 

7 days out is when you just barely get a toe over the line of usefulness, so I'd put maybe 55/45 odds on things panning out at this point. If models are still producing similar runs by the end of this weekend, I'm going all in. This late in the year, it has to happen eventually (or does it?)

 

 

[HenryJames 66188]