Blastfurnace 2023

[atomheartbevo 90,663]

15 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

So all of these fires popping up are manmade, yes?

3 hours ago, texasdago said:

I think they say something like 80-90% are caused by idiots.  Spark from a tool, chain dragging on a truck and sparking, hot car parked in tall grass, some moron starting a campfire, cigarette.  

No idea on breakout but there were a lot of them over the weekend.  41 since Friday   Most are put out before they get big   

 

[Guest]

22 hours ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The long-term model for GFS (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/) continues to show... well not the end of the blastfurnace, but at least not 105+ starting around next Tuesday. More like 98-102.

Lol. So much for that. Now it's the next Monday... as in two weeks from now. So that's another 14 days of 100 degrees at least.

Edited August 7, 2023 by FirstTimeCaller

[miguelito 11,507]

[BachelorTrek 3,322]

17 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Lol. So much for that. Now it's the next Monday... as in two weeks from now. So that's another 14 days of 100 degrees at least.

Accuweather forecasts here in Round Rock that the 100°+F days end on 8/16, and it's sub-100°F after that for the rest of that week (still upper 90s, though).

8/16 also has a 55% chance of rain, at which the point the Star Trek Federation Weather Control Net in place over the ATX metro area glitches and allows rain.  Lulz.

Edited August 7, 2023 by BachelorTrek

[texasdago 7,771]

The question is why?  Why won't it stop?  Why won't the high pressure go away?  Like why is it completely stuck here other than Abbott?

[Hate 20,250]

The question is why?  Why won't it stop?  Why won't the high pressure go away?  Like why is it completely stuck here other than Abbott?

Because you touch yourself…duh!

[BachelorTrek 3,322]

11 minutes ago, texasdago said:

The question is why?  Why won't it stop?  Why won't the high pressure go away?  Like why is it completely stuck here other than Abbott?

Some are blaming El Nino, some are saying it's because the normal Bermuda High (the regular high pressure center that forms over Bermuda each summer) isn't as strong this year as it normally is, allowing a secondary continental high pressure area that includes being over us to form.

But I've lived long enough to see these kinds of summers come and go. It's not new. Summers like this happen like it's the next stop on a 11-year circle.

In the summer of 2007, people here in the ATX were screaming bloody murder at the sky because it rained at least a little (or a lot) EVERY DAY until the last 2 weeks of August when it finally stopped doing that.

[Macanudo 13,328]

40 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Any chance your wife will let you move back to the PNW?

[Orange&White 5,573]

I'll just leave this right here:

[atomheartbevo 90,663]

10 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

But I've lived long enough to see these kinds of summers come and go. It's not new. Summers like this happen like it's the next stop on a 11-year circle.

Before kids, I didn't care about hot summers like 2011, since I was inside during most of the day anyways, other than when camping.

Now with little kids, it's a fucking pain in the ass, and I'm not keen on them spending their summers indoors for most of the day.

[YGIFS 19,458]

43 minutes ago, miguelito said:

All of us, no matter which side of the hydrocarbon debate we find ourselves, have to agree on one thing.  Everyone who scorched through that 1909 summer is now dead as a result.  

19 minutes ago, Hate said:

Because you touch yourself…duh!

To be fair, it's not one person's fault.  But c'mon...that dude wouldn't know if he was touching himself no matter what...

[BachelorTrek 3,322]

2 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

All of us, no matter which side of the hydrocarbon debate we find ourselves, have to agree on one thing.  Everyone who scorched through that 1909 summer is now dead as a result.  

To be fair, it's not one person's fault.  But c'mon...that dude wouldn't know if he was touching himself no matter what...

[Brisketexan 106,952]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

The temperature in the shade in my backyard:  96

The temperature of the pavers and tile around the pool: 117

The water temperature of the pool:  92

Fuck me.  

When you have to encourage people to piss in your pool to cool it off....maybe it's time to get out of this hellscape.

[txduck87 1,021]

I'll just leave this right here:

I have the weirdest boner now.

[Grade of D as in David 13,255]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

When you have to encourage people to piss in your pool to cool it off....maybe it's time to get out of this hellscape.

I don't need encouragement.

[Brisketexan 106,952]

7 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I'll just leave this right here:

I mean, sure, why the fuck not.  Can't go outside because it's hotter than the surface of the sun?  We've got that.  Can't go outside because it's Hoth?  We've got that too.  Can't stay inside, because the power is out and it's as cold as Hoth in your house?  We've got that too.  Who says we don't have seasons?

[YGIFS 19,458]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

When you have to encourage people to piss in your pool to cool it off....maybe it's time to get out of this hellscape.

I just piss in your pool as a matter of course. didn't realize I was doing you a solid as well.  I'd like to see how many jalepeno hash browns I can eat in a waffle house asphalt jungle before I shit my own pancreas out.  spoiler alert---not much more than where I'm already at....

[miguelito 11,507]

11 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Any chance your wife will let you move back to the PNW?

Mother-in-law moved to Idaho, but ... maybe.  Wife's the one from WA, I'm from here.  And I've been getting cranky, like Jack Nicholson at Guantanamo.

[texasdago 7,771]

21 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

In the summer of 2007, people here in the ATX were screaming bloody murder at the sky because it rained at least a little (or a lot) EVERY DAY until the last 2 weeks of August when it finally stopped doing that.

[miguelito 11,507]

Regarding the Almanac, in case you're new to it, my friends at KSAT have a good breakdown:

https://ksatcom-ampd-news.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/ksatcom.ampd.news/c/5d2d3697-2c77-4976-ab1a-60154cc82cb4?amp_js_v=0.1&dml-collection=503239bc090cef6e376958e4b0372ff2&utm_source=distributedmedialab&utm_medium=referral#origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ksat.com&cap=swipe%2CnavigateTo%2Cfragment%2CerrorReporter&horizontalScrolling=0&prerenderSize=1&visibilityState=visible

 

Summary:

It's full of shit because:

The forecast zone is too big.

The information is vague.

The almanac doesn't disclose its process.

 

"This far out, any meteorologist worth their sand would say it’s impossible to be too specific about details in the long term.

However, because a La Niña weather pattern is ongoing, we can say that the winter in San Antonio has a good chance to be warmer and drier than average. One or two light ice events are possible too, as they are every winter."

 

Spoiler

As a meteorologist, folks ask me a lot about the Farmers’ Almanac. Recently, the common question has been: “What do you think, Sarah? The Farmers’ Almanac is predicting a colder than average winter.” And it’s such a fair question! After such a hot and dry summer, we need a little relief from this heat!

But what exactly is the Farmers’ Almanac? What’s its track record for long-term forecasting? And what’s in store for this winter?

What is the Farmers’ Almanac?

Off the bat, the first thing to know is that there are currently two publications of a “farmer’s almanac.” The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been in publication since 1792. Then there’s the Farmers’ Almanac, which is much newer (kidding), and has been in publication since 1818. Both publications contain what is typical of almanacs in general -- planting dates, tide tables, various astronomical and astrological information, and general weather predictions for the whole year.

 

Almanacs have a rich history in the United States. In fact, founding father Benjamin Franklin published an almanac of his own, Poor Richard’s Almanack, which was available for the American colonists between 1732 and 1758. Franklin’s almanac was in demand, selling an average of 10,000 copies a year.

Before modern meteorology, almanacs were one of the only ways for people to receive weather predictions, and almanacs were very popular in American homes -- especially before 1920, when most of our population lived in rural communities. Odds are your ancestors read an annual farmers’ almanac!

In addition to weather predictions, tide tables, and planting dates, both The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmers’ Almanac often contain a bit of fun and whimsical reading -- poems, riddles, old-timey stories, jokes -- as well as recipes, gardening tips, and other useful information. It’s actually quite fun to flip through the pages.

Because there is such a strong tradition of almanacs in the U.S., it is still common for many to compare the local meteorologists’ forecasts to the almanac’s predictions. So that leads us to our next question.

What does the Farmers’ Almanac predict for winter 2022-2023?

The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a “chilly” winter with “near normal” precipitation. Specifically, they say that the South Central United States, including the San Antonio area, will see “some accumulating snow, especially in early January.”

But can you trust this forecast? Let’s start by looking at the Almanac’s track record so far this year...

What’s the Farmers’ Almanac’s accuracy so far this year?

Earlier this year, the 2022 Farmers’ Almanac was predicting a winter where, “another bout of potentially frigid and flaky weather may be in store” for Texas and Oklahoma, with the potential for another major event like the February 2021 winter storm.

• The reality of this past winter? It was actually warmer and drier than normal in San Antonio. Not really “frigid.” Sure, we had a couple of the typical cold snaps with a flurry or two, but it was definitely not a repeat of February 2021.

The Almanac also called for a summer with “broiling heat” and “normal precipitation.”

• Kudos to the Almanac! Certainly, this summer has been very hot, even “broiling.” In fact, it’s been one of our hottest summers ever on record in San Antonio. However, in my opinion, it’s not a stretch to say that it will be “broiling” in San Antonio during any summer 😉
• The other side of their 2022 summer forecast is completely wrong... ”normal precipitation.” It has been one of the driest summers ever in San Antonio’s history. The drought is the worst it has been since 2011. With only 5.44 inches or rain reported for the year at the time of this writing, 2022 is the driest year on record for San Antonio with records dating back to 1886.

Needless to say, although the Farmers’ Almanac can claim some wins when it comes to long-term forecasting, it has been mostly wrong for San Antonio.

So here’s why you should be cautious when reading the Farmers’ Almanac’s forecasts:

Forecast zone is too big

According to the Farmers' Almanac. This forecast zone contains over 570,000 square miles of land (Copyright 2021 by KSAT - All rights reserved.)

• The Farmers’ Almanac splits the nation into 7 zones, with Texas and San Antonio in the “South Central States” zone. This includes all of New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
• Think about that for a second -- that’s a single forecast for over 570,000 square miles! The weather in dry New Mexico is much different than the weather in swampy Louisiana. Even in Texas, Lubbock’s climatology is far different than Brownsville’s day-to-day weather.
• Simply put, it is impossible to give a forecast for such a large area a year in advance UNLESS...

The information is vague

• The Farmers’ Almanac keeps its predictions as vague as possible so that it can be interpreted as true -- much like a horoscope.
• For example: To have a statement like “changeable skies” is pretty clever because it is always true! The skies change every day, even if subtly so.
• Also, the Almanac is geographically vague. When it says “heavy snow” for “much of Oklahoma, Texas” does that mean the Oklahoma and Texas border? Or all/some of Texas and Oklahoma? Again, this is very clever, but misleading.In contrast, meteorologists’ forecasts are often detailed and tailored to your specific location. For example, take a look at Your Weather Authority’s forecast.
• In contrast, meteorologists’ forecasts are often detailed and tailored to your specific location. For example, take a look at Your Weather Authority’s forecast.

The Farmers’ Almanac doesn’t disclose its process

• The editors of the Farmers’ Almanac say they use a secret, guarded “formula” that “takes things like sunspot activity, position of the planets, tidal action of the Moon, and a variety of other factors into consideration.” They also claim that only one person with the pseudonym of “Caleb Weatherbee” knows the exact formula.Meanwhile, the science of meteorology is available to anyone who wants to study it. Since the mid-20th century, computers have drastically improved localized forecasts.
• Meanwhile, the science of meteorology is available to anyone who wants to study it. Since the mid-20th century, computers have drastically improved localized forecasts.
• The Farmers’ Almanac says that “our followers claim our forecasts are 80%-85% accurate.” A pretty easy claim to make when you’re the author of the almanac yourself! However, many scientific studies assess the true accuracy of almanacs at about 50%-52%. That’s basically just random chance.

What’s the bottom line?

The Farmers’ Almanac is a fun, whimsical bit of reading that provides useful information about planting dates, home and gardening tips, and is great for a laugh and that old-timey feel.

However, when it comes to weather predictions and specific, detailed forecasts it should not be completely trusted.

That being said, I do understand the appeal and the nostalgia of such almanacs.

My own grandfather grew up on a farm and relied on almanacs at a time when detailed forecast information from local meteorologists wasn’t readily available. Even so, it’s my opinion that the Farmers’ Almanac shouldn’t be your first choice when it comes to forecasts in this modern age.

What will winter 2022-2023 actually look like?

Meteorological winter is defined as the months of December, January, and February.

This far out, any meteorologist worth their sand would say it’s impossible to be too specific about details in the long term.

However, because a La Niña weather pattern is ongoing, we can say that the winter in San Antonio has a good chance to be warmer and drier than average. One or two light ice events are possible too, as they are every winter.

 

[BachelorTrek 3,322]

14 minutes ago, texasdago said:

 

How soon we forget!

 

https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/rain-of-terror/
 

September 2007

It’s a safe bet that most back-to-school essays on the theme “What I Did on My Summer Vacation” will be short on details about the beach and long on complaints about the rain. To anyone who has lived through the kind of relentless, triple-digit scorcher that tests the resolve of even the most seasoned Texans, this has hardly felt like a summer at all.

By the first week of July, some areas of the state had received as many as 44 consecutive days of rain (it was the wettest July on record since 1903). And it kept on raining. Tubing trips were called off, fireworks shows fizzled out, barbecues were ruined. As flash floods overwhelmed rural communities and farmers struggled to save their waterlogged crops, state officials called the monsoon catastrophic. So many crickets descended on the University of Texas at Austin that the school darkened the Tower at night in hopes of deterring them. And though the rain has since abated, the trouble isn’t over yet: Mosquitoes are thriving, and not since 1957 have the state’s river basins all been at flood capacity. Still, despite the grumbling about the weather, the deluge has brought us benefits too. It’s been a mild summer— so mild, in fact, that you might even remember it wistfully the next time the temperature breaks 100 degrees for a week on end. Most important, the rain has solved one of our biggest crises: For the first time in at least a decade, Texas is officially drought-free. Now, that’s something to be grateful for.

Edited August 7, 2023 by BachelorTrek

[Biff Tannen 46,175]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean, sure, why the fuck not.  Can't go outside because it's hotter than the surface of the sun?  We've got that.  Can't go outside because it's Hoth?  We've got that too.  Can't stay inside, because the power is out and it's as cold as Hoth in your house?  We've got that too.  Who says we don't have seasons?

Why did they call it Hoth?  Should've been called Coldth.

[HenryJames 67,422]

[YGIFS 19,458]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why did they call it Hoth?  Should've been called Coldth.

The planet is snow.  The animals are snow.  Why don't they call it "Snowdth?" 

 

That's Goldth, Jerry!  Goldth.  

Oh I'm gonna puke!  

Cause of how bad they smell........................................................................on the outside?

[BachelorTrek 3,322]

2 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

The planet is snow.  The animals are snow.  Why don't they call it "Snowdth?" 

 

That's Goldth, Jerry!  Goldth.  

Oh I'm gonna puke!  

Cause of how bad they smell........................................................................on the outside?

[Guest]

I loved the 2007 summer.

[YGIFS 19,458]

1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I loved the 2007 summer.

Your mom did, too.  'Moist' doesn't begin to describe any of it.....,,

[NorthLoop 14,499]

10 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

 

How soon we forget!

 

https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/rain-of-terror/
 

September 2007

It’s a safe bet that most back-to-school essays on the theme “What I Did on My Summer Vacation” will be short on details about the beach and long on complaints about the rain. To anyone who has lived through the kind of relentless, triple-digit scorcher that tests the resolve of even the most seasoned Texans, this has hardly felt like a summer at all.

By the first week of July, some areas of the state had received as many as 44 consecutive days of rain (it was the wettest July on record since 1903). And it kept on raining. Tubing trips were called off, fireworks shows fizzled out, barbecues were ruined. As flash floods overwhelmed rural communities and farmers struggled to save their waterlogged crops, state officials called the monsoon catastrophic. So many crickets descended on the University of Texas at Austin that the school darkened the Tower at night in hopes of deterring them. And though the rain has since abated, the trouble isn’t over yet: Mosquitoes are thriving, and not since 1957 have the state’s river basins all been at flood capacity. Still, despite the grumbling about the weather, the deluge has brought us benefits too. It’s been a mild summer— so mild, in fact, that you might even remember it wistfully the next time the temperature breaks 100 degrees for a week on end. Most important, the rain has solved one of our biggest crises: For the first time in at least a decade, Texas is officially drought-free. Now, that’s something to be grateful for.

I would trade that summer for this one EVERY time, including all the crickets and extra mosquitoes. I spent half that summer swimming in the greenbelt back before hipsters had truly invaded and took over. 

[Jiggy-Z 3,509]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

The temperature in the shade in my backyard:  96

The temperature of the pavers and tile around the pool: 117

The water temperature of the pool:  92

Fuck me.  

Worst humblebrag evar.

[Biff Tannen 46,175]

1 hour ago, BachelorTrek said:

But I've lived long enough to see these kinds of summers come and go. It's not new. Summers like this happen like it's the next stop on a 11-year circle.

Yeah, those records we are breaking are normal.  Well.  The new normal I guess.

[atomheartbevo 90,663]

54 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

All of us, no matter which side of the hydrocarbon debate we find ourselves, have to agree on one thing.  Everyone who scorched through that 1909 summer is now dead as a result.  

Armybrat is still alive and kicking.

[BachelorTrek 3,322]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yeah, those records we are breaking are normal.  Well.  The new normal I guess.

Weather records in Austin have only been kept since the 1890s, and the Earth is about 4.5 Billion years old, and had at least 5 global ice-ages.

So weather "records" are relative to only the minuscule time on this planet that weather measurements first had to exist, and then measurements and observations were recorded.

[Biff Tannen 46,175]

[atomheartbevo 90,663]

And to be honest, I give no fucks about how long recorded weather records go back - I just know it's becoming more and more of a shitshow during my lifetime, and as I said, I could ignore/avoid it before we had kids, but with kids, the equation has changed.

[Brisketexan 106,952]

1 minute ago, BachelorTrek said:

Weather records in Austin have only been kept since the 1890s, and the Earth is about 4.5 Billion years old, and had at least 5 global ice-ages.

So weather "records" are relative to only the minuscule time on this planet that weather measurements first had to exist, and then measurements and observations were recorded.

Yeah....except that while we only have official records (and thus can only talk about "official record was broken today") since around the 1880s....we have lots of data on temperature ranges over time (a guy reading a thermometer is not the only record of temperature).  We have a pretty damned good idea of temperature ranges over the last 2000 years (and actually, much longer - just using this for illustration purposes).

[texasdago 7,771]

5 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

Weather records in Austin have only been kept since the 1890s, and the Earth is about 4.5 Billion years old, and had at least 5 global ice-ages.

So weather "records" are relative to only the minuscule time on this planet that weather measurements first had to exist, and then measurements and observations were recorded.

[Grade of D as in David 13,255]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Armybrat is still alive and kicking.

I'm convinced Armybrat is an energy vampire and feeds by posting images online upside down.

[Js1 87,213]

42 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....except that while we only have official records (and thus can only talk about "official record was broken today") since around the 1880s....we have lots of data on temperature ranges over time (a guy reading a thermometer is not the only record of temperature).  We have a pretty damned good idea of temperature ranges over the last 2000 years (and actually, much longer - just using this for illustration purposes).

Psh, were you even there 

[Homercles 10,206]

Please don’t tell me we have a ‘climate is cyclical, it was this hot back in 2011/1909, the nino (I translated it from Spanish) causes this every decade, etc’ guy in here.  It’s absolutely irrefutable that swings are getting more extreme and the rapidity with which it has happened should scare everyone.  Come on now

[Chet Steadman 940]

Why do the tropics seem so quiet this summer? 

I know it generally doesn't ramp up until mid-August or so but still...95* water temps.

[Brisketexan 106,952]

Just now, Homercles said:

Please don’t tell me we have a ‘climate is cyclical, it was this hot back in 2011/1909, the nino (I translated it from Spanish) causes this every decade, etc’ guy in here.  It’s absolutely irrefutable that swings are getting more extreme and the rapidity with which it has happened should scare everyone.  Come on now

We're going to be dealing this even when coastal cities are 10 feet underwater.  "So it floods!  Tide goes in, tide goes out!"

Just now, Chet Steadman said:

Why do the tropics seem so quiet this summer? 

I know it generally doesn't ramp up until mid-August or so but still...95* water temps.

Pretty sure this High tells any Low that is interested in forming to GTFO.

Of course, that doesn't explain why there's no formation further east (off of Africa, etc.).

[InkaUtexas 26,918]

Yep, and no Pacific storms tracking the coast. All head due west. 

I think we will see some doozies later on this year. Might suck up in Cape Cod with NorEasters. 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 3,654]

Some good news because fuck this weather-

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is absolutely tanking which indicates the atmosphere is finally becoming more coupled with the ongoing El Nino.

All droughts here end in a flood...keep that in mind,. If this atmosphere continues to couple with El Nino (likely), September-Dec rainfall could surprise many after a terrible summer.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/soi

Quote

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a standardized index based on the observed sea level pressure (SLP) differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI is one measure of the large-scale fluctuations in air pressure occurring between the western and eastern tropical Pacific (i.e., the state of the Southern Oscillation) during El Niño and La Niña episodes. In general, smoothed time series of the SOI correspond very well with changes in ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific. The negative phase of the SOI represents below-normal air pressure at Tahiti and above-normal air pressure at Darwin. Prolonged periods of negative (positive) SOI values coincide with abnormally warm (cold) ocean waters across the eastern tropical Pacific typical of El Niño (La Niña) episodes. The methodology used to calculate SOI is available below. More information can be found at the Climate Prediction Center SOI page.

 

 

[ztejas 44,234]

[Js1 87,213]

22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We're going to be dealing this even when coastal cities are 10 feet underwater.  "So it floods!  Tide goes in, tide goes out!"

Pretty sure this High tells any Low that is interested in forming to GTFO.

Of course, that doesn't explain why there's no formation further east (off of Africa, etc.).

Wind shear that’s supposed to be dissipating soon

[BabaYaga 15,629]

1 minute ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Some good news because fuck this weather-

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is absolutely tanking which indicates the atmosphere is finally becoming more coupled with the ongoing El Nino.

All droughts here end in a flood...keep that in mind,. If this atmosphere continues to couple with El Nino (likely), September-Dec rainfall could surprise many after a terrible summer.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/soi

 

 

Fuck it.  Bring it on!

[jimmyjazz 47,237]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Exactly my reaction.  + rep

[Gatorubet 30,746]

3 hours ago, miguelito said:

[Brisketexan 106,952]

19 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Some good news because fuck this weather-

SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is absolutely tanking which indicates the atmosphere is finally becoming more coupled with the ongoing El Nino.

All droughts here end in a flood...keep that in mind,. If this atmosphere continues to couple with El Nino (likely), September-Dec rainfall could surprise many after a terrible summer.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/soi

 

 

That sounds like it could be a good thing.

So, it won't happen.

[BachelorTrek 3,322]

50 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We're going to be dealing this even when coastal cities are 10 feet underwater.  "So it floods!  Tide goes in, tide goes out!"

Pretty sure this High tells any Low that is interested in forming to GTFO.

Of course, that doesn't explain why there's no formation further east (off of Africa, etc.).

In addition to the high pressure ridge, wind shear prevents any formation and also decapitates/dissipates any already-formed tropical storms/hurricanes.