GOP pretend fiscal restraint, and fucking the US economy and 401K's

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

20 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Does someone know if any quant anywhere has done the math on how much less the US will need to spend each year on Social Security and Medicare when the Boomers really start dying? Like, I have to think it's a legit downturn in spending requirements. To paraphrase Dan Patrick, maybe we just need some more Boomers to die faster to fix our national debt. 

[Biff Tannen 45,499]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Does someone know if any quant anywhere has done the math on how much less the US will need to spend each year on Social Security and Medicare when the Boomers really start dying? Like, I have to think it's a legit downturn in spending requirements. To paraphrase Dan Patrick, maybe we just need some more Boomers to die faster to fix our national debt. 

If we had a maximum voting age, this would be less of a problem.  But yes, they are dying. Thanks Covid and the internet!

Edited May 31, 2023 by Biff Tannen
Also processed foods, leaded gas, and multiple other things

[horn4life 3,755]

43 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Way to humbelbrag, motherfucker.  Would kill for a Crown and Anchor lunch.

For me that would mean a Crown and Anchor nap... Or just roll on into the night partying.

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

If we had a maximum voting age, this would be less of a problem.  But yes, they are dying. Thanks Covid and the internet!

I mean, that's not what I asked. But yeah. I assume in the next 10 years we're going to lose 10-20 million more Boomers, right? I'd like to see that broken out, is all. 

There's 73 million Boomers, and 56 million are 65 or older. Feels like 20 million might be on the low end. 

[hayden_horn 11,360]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, that's not what I asked. But yeah. I assume in the next 10 years we're going to lose 10-20 million more Boomers, right? I'd like to see that broken out, is all. 

There's 73 million Boomers, and 56 million are 65 or older. Feels like 20 million might be on the low end. 

i honestly feel like we are on the edge of a population correction. the olds are going to die off, yeah, but we aren't replacing them at the same rate they are departing, so we really need to start thinking about what an economy with 0 or negative population growth looks like. 

because everything else has been a pyramid scheme. 

[sidis 9,754]

7 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i honestly feel like we are on the edge of a population correction. the olds are going to die off, yeah, but we aren't replacing them at the same rate they are departing, so we really need to start thinking about what an economy with 0 or negative population growth looks like. 

because everything else has been a pyramid scheme. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2,799]

4 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

so we really need to start thinking about what an economy with 0 or negative population growth looks like. 

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

1 hour ago, hayden_horn said:

i honestly feel like we are on the edge of a population correction. the olds are going to die off, yeah, but we aren't replacing them at the same rate they are departing, so we really need to start thinking about what an economy with 0 or negative population growth looks like. 

because everything else has been a pyramid scheme. 

Yeah. It's growth through immigration, although Gen Z is pretty hefty, and after the largest transfer of wealth in Human History that will befall many of them when boomers die, they might be able to have/afford a house and consider having kids. But other than that, yeah, legalize the illegals and lets keep chugging. 

Edited May 31, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[Biff Tannen 45,499]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah. It's growth through immigration, although Gen Z is pretty hefty, and after the largest transfer of wealth in Human History that well befall many of them when boomers die, they might be able to have/afford a house and consider having kids. But other than that, yeah, legalize the illegals and lets keep chugging. 

Or, according to my boomer inlaws, STOP THE BROWNZ!

[hayden_horn 11,360]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah. It's growth through immigration, although Gen Z is pretty hefty, and after the largest transfer of wealth in Human History that well befall many of them when boomers die, they might be able to have/afford a house and consider having kids. But other than that, yeah, legalize the illegals and lets keep chugging. 

of course you know i agree with that. 

but let's assume that we achieve growth through immigration - at some point, we still need to plan for 0 or negative growth. what happens then? when do we get the fucking good life, the ten hour work weeks, and the goddamn flying cars for free? all this automation should get us SOMEthing.

[The Dog 43,808]

25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Does someone know if any quant anywhere has done the math on how much less the US will need to spend each year on Social Security and Medicare when the Boomers really start dying? Like, I have to think it's a legit downturn in spending requirements. To paraphrase Dan Patrick, maybe we just need some more Boomers to die faster to fix our national debt. 

current breakdown by generation:

 

This doesn't include those born after 2012 but now more than half of the US population is Millenial or younger. 

[bolverk 29,405]

6 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i honestly feel like we are on the edge of a population correction. the olds are going to die off, yeah, but we aren't replacing them at the same rate they are departing, so we really need to start thinking about what an economy with 0 or negative population growth looks like. 

because everything else has been a pyramid scheme. 

That's a more immediate concern for Europe and East Asia, I think. Domestically, we're likely to continue to see modest growth through mid-century, but early signs are there -- no doubt. The 25-30 and 30-35 year age cohorts are our largest, and they still have time to reproduce. But very little is happening from a policy perspective to encourage them to do so.

Where we're going to get into real demographic trouble is when it's time for today's toddlers and elementary school kids to begin having families and don't. Looking at the population pyramid for the US, this current crop of kids may well be our smallest generation yet (determined by their ratio of the total). And they will also be shouldering the burden of funding the retirements of Millenials. That's got to get solved, but so do the issues of climate change and AI/robotics in the workplace.

Everything that we'll be facing is about the allocation of resources: the money for the olds, the shit we consume, and the jobs we'll have.

[Biff Tannen 45,499]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

And they will also be shouldering the burden of funding the retirements of Millenials. That's got to get solved, but so do the issues of climate change and AI/robotics in the workplace.

Everything that we'll be facing is about the allocation of resources: the money for the olds, the shit we consume, and the jobs we'll have.

As a millennial (Oregon Trail generation motherfucker) with no kids, I have always planned on not having social security.  I don't know if I'm the exception, but I've always viewed social security as just a tax that I'll never see again.

[Steamboat1874 4,032]

Social Security is not an entitlement program god damnit !

The main reason it is a burden is because those fuckers kept borrowing money from it.

[bolverk 29,405]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

As a millennial (Oregon Trail generation motherfucker) with no kids, I have always planned on not having social security.  I don't know if I'm the exception, but I've always viewed social security as just a tax that I'll never see again.

As a Gen Xer, I've always felt the same but with a melange of nonchalance, melancholy, and ennui. In other words, the characteristics of a typical slacker.

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

As a millennial (Oregon Trail generation motherfucker) with no kids, I have always planned on not having social security.  I don't know if I'm the exception, but I've always viewed social security as just a tax that I'll never see again.

 you think Gen X hearing how social security was going broke for our entire lives gave us confidence?

It's the same as any other demotivating program from the Rs. Who has been banging the drum on that? The ones this thread is about. Raise the cap on where we stop taking out taxes and this gets a lot better.

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

current breakdown by generation:

 

This doesn't include those born after 2012 but now more than half of the US population is Millenial or younger. 

Thanks, I found that chart myself trying to find my answer. What I'm really looking to know is the age range of percentages of all Boomers. Like, what percent are 50-60, 61-70, 71-80 and so on. 

[The Dog 43,808]

14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Thanks, I found that chart myself trying to find my answer. What I'm really looking to know is the age range of percentages of all Boomers. Like, what percent are 50-60, 61-70, 71-80 and so on. 

best I could find real quick: https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-individuals-who-voted-in-thousands-and-individuals-who-voted-as-a-share-of-the-voter-population-by-age/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}

 

Edited May 31, 2023 by The Dog

[Biff Tannen 45,499]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

best I could find real quick: https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-individuals-who-voted-in-thousands-and-individuals-who-voted-as-a-share-of-the-voter-population-by-age/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}

 

The gray ones are all liars.

[The Dog 43,808]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

The gray ones are all liars.

I meant to delete that but missed it - not a very good chart because it's "voter identification" rather than how they actually voted. 

[Scheiss Meister 8,399]

28 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

As a millennial (Oregon Trail generation motherfucker) with no kids, I have always planned on not having social security.  I don't know if I'm the exception, but I've always viewed social security as just a tax that I'll never see again.

I'm an end-of-the-period Boomer, and I've always assumed the same.  I have six more years before I find out whether that is a correct assumption.

[TexEx15 17,487]

 

[Texas Jeff 1,932]

Social Security is insurance against being old and being poor at the same time. Think of it like that…

The plan can be stabilized by some combo of raising the benefit age, taxing benefits for wealthier recipients, or raising the social security wage base.

Medicare funding is probably a bigger issue.

[gmr548 16,517]

These sort of battles do show the extremes of both parties pretty clearly. Both are harmful to compromise, because they believe their "purity" is more important than actually getting shit done.
The Big Difference?  The GOP is the party of NO!  And because of this they allow their extreme members to take control of the party BECAUSE of their willingness to never compromise.  Indeed that's why you cannot negotiate with Republicans, because they simply always have to renegotiate with the extreme of their party, who KNOWS the power of simply saying NO! in the GOP.
The GOP elevates the extremist bomb throwers, because the Republicans do not have any principles beyond personal power.  Personal power, not representing the people is now the only principle the GOP represents. There is no other.  This twisted desire for personal power, above serving the country is what allows the extreme of the GOP to force Kevin McCarthy and our country into dangerous waters.  Because Kevin's personal power as leader is more important than actually being able to lead!  How fucked up is that?  So here we are.  The Republicans that ALWAYS add to the deficit at a faster pace than their Democratic counterpart are howling at the moon in protest... for paying the bills they charged at the tax cut trough. Only destruction can please a large portion of the GOP.  And how the fuck do you negotiate anything when the other side EMPOWERS the most extreme members of their party rather than mute them?
Hilariously the very gerrymandering the GOP has used to lock in seats, is what now prevents them from legislating.  Because the GOP elevates it's crazies, and the Dams... not so much.

I don’t think you can paint the progressives and the freedom caucus in the same light here. The former will vote against the bill because they can, without sending the country into default, and will be able to tell the very liberal districts that elected that that they voted their conscience on things like work requirements and permitting for fossil fuel projects. None of them are going to be vote 218.

The Freedom Caucus is out here threatening to come for the Speaker’s job and shit because he didn’t fulfill a GOP wishlist while Democrats control the White House and Senate. The Progressives’ actions basically have no consequences here while the Freedom Caucus has been actively promoting a default and undermining the ability of the majority party in the House to govern.

[SydneyCarton 47,884]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I don’t think you can paint the progressives and the freedom caucus in the same light here. The former will vote against the bill because they can, without sending the country into default, and will be able to tell the very liberal districts that elected that that they voted their conscience on things like work requirements and permitting for fossil fuel projects. None of them are going to be vote 218.

The Freedom Caucus is out here threatening to come for the Speaker’s job and shit because he didn’t fulfill a GOP wishlist while Democrats control the White House and Senate. The Progressives’ actions basically have no consequences here while the Freedom Caucus has been actively promoting a default and undermining the ability of the majority party in the House to govern.

Yes, there is literally no comparison. Additionally, if a progressive voter WERE vote 218...they'd hold their nose and fucking vote for the damn thing. 

[David Dennison 18,661]

One thing we should do immediately is eliminate the Social Security tax cap.

 

[The Dog 43,808]

There wouldn't have been an agreement unless McCarthy and Biden had the votes. The gasbags from Freedom Caucus know this and are just performing for the cameras. 

[henrygandorf 29,178]

it's a real shame the republicans caved in and compromised.  letting the country default and the world fall into chaos was legit their best chance at winning the election next year.

[gmr548 16,517]

it's a real shame the republicans caved in and compromised.  letting the country default and the world fall into chaos was legit their best chance at winning the election next year.

Biden’s approval is in line with defeated incumbents and who knows what the economy looks like in 12 months. I wouldn’t go that far. Yes, favorite over Trump though.

[henrygandorf 29,178]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Biden’s approval is in line with defeated incumbents and who knows what the economy looks like in 12 months. I wouldn’t go that far. Yes, favorite over Trump though.

approval lol.  people need to get comfortable with the fact that certain polling, especially historical polling is absolutely useless now.

43% approval of biden doesn't mean 57% of people are voting for trump.

[Js1 85,112]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

approval lol.  people need to get comfortable with the fact that certain polling, especially historical polling is absolutely useless now.

43% approval of biden doesn't mean 57% of people are voting for trump.

This. And approvals haven’t meant shit. We are fucking polarized. We may not see another president with above water approvals for decades at this rate 

[gmr548 16,517]

approval lol.  people need to get comfortable with the fact that certain polling, especially historical polling is absolutely useless now.
43% approval of biden doesn't mean 57% of people are voting for trump.

No, it doesn’t, and that’s not what I said it meant. I said Biden’s approval rating is in line with previous defeated incumbents. That includes Trump, whose territory Biden is operating in.

[henrygandorf 29,178]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

No, it doesn’t, and that’s not what I said it meant. I said Biden’s approval rating is in line with previous defeated incumbents. That includes Trump, whose territory Biden is operating in.

right, but historical polling like where an incumbent is or needs to be to get reelected is no longer relevant.  you could argue pretty convincingly that the last two elections were won by voters voting against candidates, rather than for them.  if that continues, trump's numbers are the only ones that will matter, and i seriously doubt they've improved since 2020.

my original point is that the pubs are pretty much fucked in 2024 unless the economy slips into some sort of post-apocalyptic thunderdome-style mayhem scenario.  if we defaulted, that could've very well happened, and deep down, i'm sure plenty of republicans know/knew that.  some were likely wishing for it.  they need that type of chaos to win, and winning is all they care about.

credit to those who figured it out on their own.  i'm sure those conversations were happening.

[horn4life 3,755]

53 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

One thing we should do immediately is eliminate the Social Security tax cap.

 

I don't completely disagree.  Because the money has to come from somewhere.  How many times in a lifetime do you think the average $60K a year worker goes to an airport? How many times do millionaires?  The masses pay taxes. The rich, have so many different avenues to reduce taxation that the reality is that they should pay more.  Yet that $60K earners taxes support something they don't use.  it's a taxpayre freebee this infrastructure stuff.

The bottom line is the curve of debt as well as a further concentration of wealth into fewer and fewer hand started with the Reagan tax cuts and has continued.  You need look no further than the closing of rural hospitals and the overall shittiness of our infrastructure to know that somebody isn't paying their share like they did in the 1950's.  

The bottom line is that if at any time Republicans had created the jobs and tax revenue promised by their tax cuts, we would be in debt but not remotely where we are now.  The bottom line is more jobs are created in Democratic Presidential terms, and less deficit spending with their signatures.  It's just math, the kind that the GOP does not understand.  IF there were not a million ways for the wealthy to avoid taxation it wouldn't be necessary to een think about the SS cap.

Edited May 31, 2023 by horn4life

[The Dog 43,808]

49 minutes ago, The Dog said:

There wouldn't have been an agreement unless McCarthy and Biden had the votes. The gasbags from Freedom Caucus know this and are just performing for the cameras. 

Correcting myself here - MOST of them are just performing for the cameras. There are  a handful who were iced out and are true believers. Exhibit A:

 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13,547]

6 minutes ago, horn4life said:

You need look no further than the closing of rural hospitals and the overall shittiness of our infrastructure to know that somebody isn't paying their share like they did in the 1950's.  

Just a mile or so past the "Trump Promises Made Promises Kept" truck you see on the left entering Fredericksburg you see a house on the right with "Save Our Hospital" yard signs. 

[Js1 85,112]

9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Correcting myself here - MOST of them are just performing for the cameras. There are  a handful who were iced out and are true believers. Exhibit A:

 

Rep Jeff Jackson from NC said in an AMA that a lot of this crazy ones only do it for the camera and are very serious about policy making behind closed doors. But they have to do that for money and TV time

[Biff Tannen 45,499]

3 hours ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Just a mile or so past the "Trump Promises Made Promises Kept" truck you see on the left entering Fredericksburg you see a house on the right with "Save Our Hospital" yard signs. 

In less than 50 years, the GOP has simultaneously completely fucked over their voters and also made them believe it was someone else's fault.  It's fairly amazing when you step back and look at it.

[Fastbreak 3,959]

Rep Jeff Jackson from NC said in an AMA that a lot of this crazy ones only do it for the camera and are very serious about policy making behind closed doors. But they have to do that for money and TV time

We are completely serious behind closed doors

[The Dog 43,808]

LOL @ 105 Democrats not voting.

[Js1 85,112]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

LOL @ 105 Democrats not voting.

Not the final count

314-117

149 R and 165 D

Edited June 1, 2023 by Js1

[Pancho 44,487]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

LOL @ 105 Democrats not voting.

Only 2 didn’t vote in the final tally

[The Dog 43,808]

Well that’s what I get for posting a WIP tweet…

[Js1 85,112]

Just now, The Dog said:

Well that’s what I get for posting a WIP tweet…

Well also the time limit on the screen is never the time limit in Congress

[mdmost 42,865]

Eat the biggest of dicks, Freedom Caucus. 

[Js1 85,112]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Eat the biggest of dicks, Freedom Caucus. 

McCarthy couldn’t even get the 150 he promised. He’s so boned 

[The Dog 43,808]

[hornmpa96 2,598]

McCarthy will need D votes to pass a budget this fall as well. When he starts making additional requests this Fall, Biden should tell him to go fuck himself. The Rs in the House are simply incapable of governing. They should be permanently sent to the kids table in any negotiation going forward.

[TheStoicPaisano 9,904]

 

[Js1 85,112]

32 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

McCarthy will need D votes to pass a budget this fall as well. When he starts making additional requests this Fall, Biden should tell him to go fuck himself. The Rs in the House are simply incapable of governing. They should be permanently sent to the kids table in any negotiation going forward.