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Supreme Court Justice Kennedy to Retire at the end of July


Hugo Stiglitz

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3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Dems angling to make the midterms a referendum on the scotus. I actually think that is precisely the wrong play. The gop is dejected. Give trump the ability to float a nomination and you only give them a chance to rally with a good map

Republicans are going to be decimated in November no matter what.

It's going to be ugly.

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You see the 5-4 ruling yesterday on the California law and its injunction? 

WASHINGTON — In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court on Tuesday declared as probably unconstitutional a California law that required religiously affiliated pregnancy centers to inform clients about the availability of state-funded services for terminating a pregnancy.

The fact that 4 dumb fucks voted the other way is scary.
The left has gone off the reservation. There aren’t moderates on the left. It’s socialists, freebies, identity politics and victimhood.  
What in the world do any of those four GOP buzzwords have to do with that law and dissent?

Hilarious that you decry identity politics while simultaneously offering a perfect example of it.
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Republicans are going to be decimated in November no matter what.
It's going to be ugly.


Before today I agree. If you make the vote a referendum on a named conservative judge instead of Dotus it only favors gop, with the tailwind of strong map. You go all in on that and you risk a 3rd appointment if Bader strokes out.
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7 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think liberals are fucking nuts. Well classical liberals aren’t.  I’m basically one. But the modern left of victimhood, freebies and identity politics, yeah.  You all suck. 

You are describing conservatives too. Why do you people keep igorning this???

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5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Dems angling to make the midterms a referendum on the scotus. I actually think that is precisely the wrong play. The gop is dejected. Give trump the ability to float a nomination and you only give them a chance to rally with a good map

This is what I'm arguing in the Elections thread. 

Making November a "Vote for us or the other side will get a SCOTUS seat" election is precisely the recipe to motivate Republicans.  It's hard to swallow, but this nominee will be conservative and he will be confirmed.  Don't overplay your shitty hand and lose any chance at House and/or Senate too.

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6 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

 But the modern left of victimhood, freebies and identity politics, yeah.  You all suck. 

Come on man. That's basically the Trump playbook with the exception of freebies and you possibly argue that the tax cut without the corresponding spending cut is a freebie.

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I hope McConnell gets another SC justice confirmed before the midterms. Like Cobra Kai, show no mercy when it comes to getting a conservative on the bench. Going hardball, scorched earth is generally not the right call, BUT it was worth doing when it comes to picking justices on the Supreme Court.  I am glad the Republicans got Gorsuch on the bench and denied Garland a confirmation hearing. That move by the Republicans has already paid huge dividends with the decision in Janus. Getting 2 conservative justices on the SC will help blunt the stupidity of an unqualified hack like Sotamayor and blatant liberal bias of Ginsburg.  

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I wouldn't say I "prefer" it but I don't mind it.  The balance between strict originalism and interpreting the Constitution as a living document of sorts is difficult.  Of course, I lean towards the latter, but mostly I just want serious high intellect justices who truly know not only the law but history, and who are morally committed to doing the best job possible.

I don't think Trump would ascribe to my standards with a gun to his head.  Ergo, I am extraordinarily worried.

I want a SCOTUS that stays keeps the government out of my shit. 

That means Roe v. Wade first and foremost. 

Trump gonna fuck this up.

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6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Dems angling to make the midterms a referendum on the scotus. I actually think that is precisely the wrong play. The gop is dejected. Give trump the ability to float a nomination and you only give them a chance to rally with a good map

I agree with you on that.  The only counter-play is to somehow invoke the hypocrisy being spewed by Turtle in the light of his statements about Garland, and that's such old news I don't think it will play well.

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5 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think liberals are fucking nuts. Well classical liberals aren’t.  I’m basically one. But the modern left of victimhood, freebies and identity politics, yeah.  You all suck. 

your use of the word "you" there is most curious. i don't really consider myself a liberal. i am for SOME policies that the democrats support, and i am for SOME polices that republicans embrace.

i'm basically against everything this current cabal is doing to destroy america, i don't care what letter they claim. and when the democrats eventually go fucking crazy at the federal level, i'll be here still, probably speaking against their overreach. because the teams don't matter to me. the polices are what matters. but you don't care about that as long as your team is doing the winning. 

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I agree with you on that.  The only counter-play is to somehow invoke the hypocrisy being spewed by Turtle in the light of his statements about Garland, and that's such old news I don't think it will play well.

The average voter gives zero shits about what happened 2 years ago and probably doesn't understand it. 

Advantage Trump.

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7 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Trump will nominate someone soon. Let the red state senator dems up for re-election have to take a position. 

I'm not sure if this or holding out until after the midterms would be better for Trump. Holding gets his base out, but your idea is pretty interesting. Either way it certainly presents an opportunity for Trump to get more power.

Edited by SimonBolivar
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12 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think liberals are fucking nuts. Well classical liberals aren’t.  I’m basically one. But the modern left of victimhood, freebies and identity politics, yeah.  You all suck. 

identity politics is a mainstay of the right, especially with the Religious Right component. The Rs are 90% white, which should be a telling sign. 

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11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Dems angling to make the midterms a referendum on the scotus. I actually think that is precisely the wrong play. The gop is dejected. Give trump the ability to float a nomination and you only give them a chance to rally with a good map

i agree with this, but the inverse is also true. if the republicans go nuclear and jam a justice through, their november may be even uglier than i currently think it could be.

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i agree with this, but the inverse is also true. if the republicans go nuclear and jam a justice through, their november may be even uglier than i currently think it could be.



I agree. Senate goes blue. Which prevents a Ginsburg replacement. It’s amazing political gaming right now.
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28 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

we had a strict conservative in scalia. i don't think we really know what gorsuch will do in the next ruling or 5 years from now. we always knew trump was getting 2-3 justices, because of scalia, and the general age of the justices.

and i'm a weirdo, but i prefer a conservative supreme court. what i worry about is that pendulum swinging into a rubber stamp. i happen to hope that the justices on the surpreme court aren't overly activist, however, and i hope that decisions will continue to be balanced.

a cynic is only a frustrated optimist, after all.

This. 

I'm hoping Garland and [insert new judge] turn out to be more like Kennedy/Roberts. 

Less like Stephens/Ginsberg/Thomas.

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I hope McConnell gets another SC justice confirmed before the midterms. Like Cobra Kai, show no mercy when it comes to getting a conservative on the bench. Going hardball, scorched earth is generally not the right call, BUT it was worth doing when it comes to picking justices on the Supreme Court.  I am glad the Republicans got Gorsuch on the bench and denied Garland a confirmation hearing. That move by the Republicans has already paid huge dividends with the decision in Janus. Getting 2 conservative justices on the SC will help blunt the stupidity of an unqualified hack like Sotamayor and blatant liberal bias of Ginsburg.  
We need someone who will stand for conservative ideals like fucking dudes at a flophouse while whacked out on meth!
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GOP is keeping the Senate unless they commit several own goals. Pissing off swing voters with another blatant example of hypocrisy is one of those own goals. 

I think the smart play for McConnell would have been to say that they have other immediate things they have to work on and will probably not vote to confirm until after the election.

Then the GOP can campaign on it and turn out the votes without further pissing off the swing voters. This helps them keep the House, which is HUGE. The last thing the GOP wants is Adam Schiff having subpoena power instead of Devin Nunes. That is literally a game changer. 

If the GOP loses the Senate, which is extremely unlikely, McConnell can just ram the nominee through in December anyway. 

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9 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i agree with this, but the inverse is also true. if the republicans go nuclear and jam a justice through, their november may be even uglier than i currently think it could be.

What does it mean to "jam a justice through"?  Trump nominates some dude(tte), confirmation hearings commence, new Justice.  I don't think it will be perceived in any way as being out of the ordinary, and I don't think there will be much chance of contrasting it against the Garland stall as far as the average voter is concerned.

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4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Republicans are going to be decimated in November no matter what.

It's going to be ugly.

Y'all keep forgetting where the Trump's 30%ers are and how the Senate race lines up. 

The Dems are defending seats in 30% states IN, ND, MO, WV, MT, OH, FL, and WI.  They have to hold every single one of these and without any of the "feel the Bern" GOTV groups who go around helping only progressive candidates.  All 8 of these are "establishment" Dems who the "Berns" think they don't need.

Meanwhile the GOP only has to defend vacant AZ and TN, and Heller in NV.  The rest are all safe including Ted Cruz even though the "Berns" will be wasting plenty of time in Texas instead of helping where they're needed.

I think the Dems pick up AZ and NV, and lose IN, WV, ND, and MO.  At the end it will be worse than it is now.  GOP 53, Dem 47.  The Dems will take the house.

At some point the new progressives will say "hey, maybe we need to go out there and support moderate Dems in states like IN because we're never going to get a true progressive elected there in our lifetimes and we need some support to get a few of the progressive agenda items off the ground even if we can't get them all."  Their idol, Bernie, learned this a long time ago.  Maybe that's the one benefit the old wise idealist has over the young idealist.  Pragmatism.

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3 minutes ago, zork said:

is the 2018 election a presidential election? of course not.

It's a Senate election and the justices are appointed with the advice and consent of the Senate. Using McConnell's own logic, the voters should clearly have a say in this. 

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

What does it mean to "jam a justice through"?  Trump nominates some dude(tte), confirmation hearings commence, new Justice.  I don't think it will be perceived in any way as being out of the ordinary, and I don't think there will be much chance of contrasting it against the Garland stall as far as the average voter is concerned.

because, and here's the fool in me again, i hope that the electorate will see the rank hypocrisy from the republican leadership.

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3 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

because, and here's the fool in me again, i hope that the electorate will see the rank hypocrisy from the republican leadership.

Narrator: they did, they just didn't care. 

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3 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

because, and here's the fool in me again, i hope that the electorate will see the rank hypocrisy from the republican leadership.

Yeah, I'm not very hopeful.  It will take some seriously coordinated messaging, and that will all have to dovetail with all the other transgressions being highlighted.  I just don't think there's much risk in the 'pubs pushing Trump's nomination through.

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4 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

because, and here's the fool in me again, i hope that the electorate will see the rank hypocrisy from the republican leadership.

We’re all hypocrites Senator

Bork

Thomas

Reid and his nuclear option

Reid doing the same thing in 2007 to numerous Bush appointees that Mitch did to Garland in 2016

Neither side is innocent. Neither side has the moral high ground.  

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6 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

because, and here's the fool in me again, i hope that the electorate will see the rank hypocrisy from the republican leadership.

They won't see it as hypocrisy. A black man nominated Garland.  A white man will nominate the next Justice.  These are 2 different things, don't you see?

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