Steele this Magazine, Phil

[Sbbruin 21,904]

Phil Steele's 12 "surprise teams" for 2022.

https://247sports.com/college/ucla/LongFormArticle/College-football-Phil-Steele-names-biggest-surprise-teams-for-2022-season-190234238/#190234238_1

[FartingDreamer 138]

#10, Holla!

[Vertigo 20,342]

4 of the 5 paragraphs on Texas are Sarkisian complimenting Alabama’s program. That’s about right for this rag.

[closetojumping 62,918]

I was moving a few things around this morning and found last year's Phil Steele. He's usually decent about his predictions and will certainly tell you so. I'm interested in how he feels about his work from last season because it is spotty. 

Some of the things I noticed, and obviously I am very Texas biased in what I was looking for:

He did pretty well with his offensive AA predictions. He has Caleb Williams, Penix, Maye and Nix as his QBs, in that order. Nothing ludicrous on the offensive side, really. Defensively, no mention of Sweat or Murphy anywhere and I view that as a whiff. We felt like one of them could have a great year on this board and thought that Sweat could as well if he chose to show up.

He ranked the Texas TB group 24th in the country. Can't blame him, but I don't think it is smart to rank a Sarkisian-coached TB group ever below top 10. He's going to feature TBs in all kinds of ways. 

Arkansas and Tennessee as the #5 and #6 QB rooms was laughable at the time and absurd now.

A&M with the #10 OL unit was par for the course as Steele basically viewed 2022 as an aberration for the great Jimbo and A&M was going to be back, baby!

Texas as the #22 defensive line group. Whoops. 

He has Wisconsin and A&M as his #1 and #2 "surprise teams". Right.

As far as a top 15:

1) Georgia

2) Clemson

3) Michigan

4) Alabama

5) Ohio State

6) Penn State

7) USC

8 ) FSU

9) LSU

10) ND

11) Texas

11 tie) Texas A&M

13) Wisconsin

14) Washington

15) Oregon

He got 6 of the top 10 right. Whiffed on two of the playoff teams not even in his top 10. 3 of his top 15 didn't finish ranked (CFP Final rankings) and he woefully, again, overrated Texas A&M (and Wiscy).

Now this has me going back to see how I ranked my top 10 versus the finish. Anyway, weird bump and all, but nothing else is a hot football topic and figured it might be interesting to some. Apparently this year's version of the magazine is released on July 4th. Can't wait to read it and all of the others. 

 

[closetojumping 62,918]

18 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I was moving a few things around this morning and found last year's Phil Steele. He's usually decent about his predictions and will certainly tell you so. I'm interested in how he feels about his work from last season because it is spotty. 

Some of the things I noticed, and obviously I am very Texas biased in what I was looking for:

He did pretty well with his offensive AA predictions. He has Caleb Williams, Penix, Maye and Nix as his QBs, in that order. Nothing ludicrous on the offensive side, really. Defensively, no mention of Sweat or Murphy anywhere and I view that as a whiff. We felt like one of them could have a great year on this board and thought that Sweat could as well if he chose to show up.

He ranked the Texas TB group 24th in the country. Can't blame him, but I don't think it is smart to rank a Sarkisian-coached TB group ever below top 10. He's going to feature TBs in all kinds of ways. 

Arkansas and Tennessee as the #5 and #6 QB rooms was laughable at the time and absurd now.

A&M with the #10 OL unit was par for the course as Steele basically viewed 2022 as an aberration for the great Jimbo and A&M was going to be back, baby!

Texas as the #22 defensive line group. Whoops. 

He has Wisconsin and A&M as his #1 and #2 "surprise teams". Right.

As far as a top 15:

1) Georgia

2) Clemson

3) Michigan

4) Alabama

5) Ohio State

6) Penn State

7) USC

8 ) FSU

9) LSU

10) ND

11) Texas

11 tie) Texas A&M

13) Wisconsin

14) Washington

15) Oregon

He got 6 of the top 10 right. Whiffed on two of the playoff teams not even in his top 10. 3 of his top 15 didn't finish ranked (CFP Final rankings) and he woefully, again, overrated Texas A&M (and Wiscy).

Now this has me going back to see how I ranked my top 10 versus the finish. Anyway, weird bump and all, but nothing else is a hot football topic and figured it might be interesting to some. Apparently this year's version of the magazine is released on July 4th. Can't wait to read it and all of the others. 

 

I went back and looked at predictions from other places and Steele wasn't really worse than most. I went back and found mine as well and I think I did pretty well. 

AP: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll?week=1

The AP did well. 7 out of 10 and only USC was a top 10 pick that finished unranked. They failed to land one of the playoff teams (Texas) in the top 10, but we opened 11th, right behind UW. 

Coaches: https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/football/ncaaf/coaches-poll/2023-2024/2023-08-07

The Coaches Poll performed the worst of the 4 rankings. 6 out of 10 with whiffs on Clemson, Tennessee, USC and LSU.

closetojumping:

Also spoilered for anyone reading that doesn't want to click:

Spoiler

I'm a lot better at negging teams than building them up when I read about them and/or watch them. Mostly, it's more fun as a fan doing it that way, to me, at least. So realize that when you see my posts on other teams and then look at what I actually think is a decent top 10, because several that I hated on will still be listed. 

1) Georgia - Cakewalk schedule, NFL OL, star NFL-level dynamic TE, loaded defense. They get a lot of default credit as an offense, but there are chinks in that armor. Bobo is bum who was hired via hubris by his college roommate. The TBs get a lot of credit in the magazines, but I don't see it. Highly rated, sure, but they're not amazing. They play behind an amazing line, sure. I wouldn't trade their WRs for ours. The guy from Mizzou was effectively told by Mizzou that he wouldn't be the featured WR this season, so he left. I saw McJaggey getting NFL draft talk somewhere. GTFO. The hyphen guy is okay but nothing scary. Bowers is a fucking beast. Muschamp and Smart running Smart's defense is over the top. 

2) Michigan - McCarthy is excellent. The TBs are excellent in tandem. They have a high caliber OL. They have a solid young TE. Their WRs aren't going to scare anyone. Defensively, they're going to take a step back. Heavy losses on the DL and in the secondary, but they return all starters and good backups at LB. Their schedule is a fucking embarrassment. 

3) Florida State - If they beat LSU, I think they can still lose to Clemson make the playoffs. They have high quality talent at QB, TB, and WR. They return 3 All ACC OLs and a 3 year starter from Colorado on the OL. They return serious talent across the board on defense and added quality starting transfers to fill holes. The schedule is LSU basically at home, @ Clemson and a shit ton of ACC mediocrity finished with @ UF, who is down still. They basically need to show up for two games all year and win at least one of them.

4) USC - People are sleeping on the Pac 12 this year. There are 6 high quality teams in the league (USC, UCLA, OSU, Oregon, UW, Utah) and USC might be the best of them. They'll be one of the best offenses in the country. They're still going to be soft on defense, but they were damned close last year to that not mattering and it might be the same this year. That said, their schedule is fucking tough from game 6 (Arizona) onward. Arizona, @ ND, Utah, @ Cal, UW, @ Oregon, UCLA without an off week (other than Cal) is a tough run.

5) Washington - People will laugh. They have a stacked WR room, a star QB, two good tackles and a great offensive scheme. They return a ton on defense, including multiple large Pacific islanders. The coach is damned good. The Pac 12 is going to beat each other up, so maybe none of these Pac teams finish better than 10-3, but several of them are good enough to be a playoff team.

6) Ohio State - All of my earlier negging aside, they have amazing skill talent on offense, dynamic guys at key spots on defense, and, potential pedophilia proclivities aside, Day is an excellent QB coach so that open question probably gets answered well. They'll beat the shit out of ND and handle the schedule, as they always do, before apparently collapsing against UM. 

7) Texas

8 ) Utah - Another tough Pac 12 team. If Rising is back and healthy, which they're saying he is, they'll be experienced and tough. They have elite WR and TE talent and a strong OL. They return a ton on defense and they're tough as leather. I think they'll handle UF and then win @ Baylor. When that happens, the hype train is off and running. You know they can beat USC. They'd also have to handle UCLA, @ UW, and Oregon, so, tough duty. 

9) Iowa - I can hear the cackling. They avoid UM and Ohio State. They return one of the best defenses in the country. The special teams is always excellent. I don't even need to worry about whether their OL, TEs and TBs will be solid. Cade McNamara is the best QB they'll have had there in years. They have a very manageable schedule, albeit away games at PSU and Wiscy will not be fun. Nebraska beat them in Iowa City last year, so they'll be a problem to end it. That said, I could see Iowa being 11-1 and playing Michigan for a playoff spot. 

10) Alabama - They're deeper than LSU and LSU is one injury away at QB from being a .500 team. The schedule is tough but it's Saban, so I'm lazily picking them. 

Fuck Clemson and their whiteboy awesome backfield, they never have great OLs, and their WRs scare no one. I already picked Iowa in the top 10 as my defense first choice selection.

K State would require me believing in Will Howard and I don't.

I cited why I think LSU and Penn State shouldn't be in the top 10. 

Notre Dame doesn't have the dogs, Hartman won't be enough, and I am not convinced Freeman has it all figured out yet. 

I got tired of picking Pac 12 teams so Bo Nix and Chip Kelly can go fuck themselves. 

I will believe Joe Milton is viable QB for a top 10 team when I see it. 

I thought about picking UTSA since they're loaded with a star QB, just for grins, but their non conference schedule includes Tennessee and Neyland is a tough place to pull off that kind of upset. If they lose one game, they're not making a top 10. 

I bet on Rising coming back and he didn't. Utah is the top 10 pick of mine that didn't finish ranked in the final CFP rankings besides USC, and USC was in everyone's top 10. 7 out of 10 finished in the top 10. My list was the only one of the four with all four CFP teams in the top 10. Right to hate on PSU, Clemson, LSU and Tenn. I had Washington higher than anyone else by a lot, same for Texas. Anyway, pretty fun exercise.

[statsman 5,486]

I buy three mags every year:

Phil Steele for the quantitative data and analyses (where he shows his work)

Wadlington’s “Thinking Texas Football” for the qualitative commentary 

Dave Campbell’s Texas Football (to keep my collection complete since 1960, and I won’t cry if they just shut down)

The “first to the news stand” mags are a waste; often they lack the latest portal data. 
 
I like Steele’s power Poll of all 118 (or whatever) teams. Its useful for estimating a final record, as his errors tend to balance out over a season. 

[YGIFS 19,453]

Yeah, for mainly a print guy who gets out ahead early even with the portal situation...Phil's still pretty darn good in this day and age.  

When's his magazine coming out?  It's usually mid-June IIRC, but that maybe has changed given the portal situation.  I think it's literally the one time a year I go to B&N on Brodie Lane.  

[Ignatius 4,050]

What the fuck is a ‘magazine’ outside of something idiots refer to as a clip?

JK, I’m 57…

Edited May 20 by Ignatius

[TrashMaster G 17,664]

37 minutes ago, Ignatius said:

What the fuck is a ‘magazine’ outside of something idiots refer to as a clip?

JK, I’m 57…

Wtf is a clip?

[Chooky 13,321]

[YGIFS 19,453]

3 hours ago, Ignatius said:

What the fuck is a ‘magazine’ outside of something idiots refer to as a clip?

JK, I’m 57…

Then you're old enough to remember Sony Bono saying at the newsstand, "I'll have this Time Magazine and the second time bomb from the left."  

I think Phil has truncated his last few printed versions but there was a couple years where the damn thing, informative as it was, felt like 500 pages and 10 pounds.  And I thought, "Do you have anything light?"  And the B&N cashier said, "How about these leaflet on famous Aggie championship teams."  

[Blotto 23,600]

7 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Yeah, for mainly a print guy who gets out ahead early even with the portal situation...Phil's still pretty darn good in this day and age.  

When's his magazine coming out?  It's usually mid-June IIRC, but that maybe has changed given the portal situation.  I think it's literally the one time a year I go to B&N on Brodie Lane.  

I  hit up the B&N in the arboretum exactly one time a year. Every year. Steele's publication is when I know we're close. 

[statsman 5,486]

Last year, I too bought my PS magazine at B&N. I asked about DCTF, and they said they’d get it later. They never did (at the two I checked, in Hurst and FW). I ended up buying my DCTF at a Walmart (magazine rack, no special display like they had years ago). 
 
Is DCTF having distribution and/or sales problems? I ask, because it would be ok with me if they went out of business. They are a shadow of what they used to be, and I only buy to keep my collection complete. (I get that the mag may mean more to HS football enthusiasts). 

[closetojumping 62,918]

13 minutes ago, statsman said:

Last year, I too bought my PS magazine at B&N. I asked about DCTF, and they said they’d get it later. They never did (at the two I checked, in Hurst and FW). I ended up buying my DCTF at a Walmart (magazine rack, no special display like they had years ago). 
 
Is DCTF having distribution and/or sales problems? I ask, because it would be ok with me if they went out of business. They are a shadow of what they used to be, and I only buy to keep my collection complete. (I get that the mag may mean more to HS football enthusiasts). 

Phil Steele is out in early July this year because of the portal. Athlon’s and the others will likely beat PS by a month. I buy them and read them because they’re at least good subject matter. 

I haven’t bought a Dave Campbell’s in over a decade. Hard to find and the content doesn’t add any value for me. I imagine that one is fading for forever soon enough with how it’s being distributed. 

[LTtxfan 49,386]

Yeah, stopped buying Dave Campbell's quite awhile back -- content depth and quality fell off too much.

Appreciate the info that folks bring to Surly.  Besides Phil Steele and Athlon's, curious what others find as valuable CFB resources.

Guessing The Athletic will be mentioned -- is Scipio Tex's write-up that valuable??

[statsman 5,486]

10 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, stopped buying Dave Campbell's quite awhile back -- content depth and quality fell off too much.

Appreciate the info that folks bring to Surly.  Besides Phil Steele and Athlon's, curious what others find as valuable CFB resources.

Guessing The Athletic will be mentioned -- is Scipio Tex's write-up that valuable??

Thinking Texas Football is pretty good. One of its best parts is coverage of opposing teams. Know how the typical “analyst” looks at Texas and says, “They had three WRs drafted; their cupboard must be bare” and leaves it at that? He doesn’t make that mistake with opposing teams; he digs at least one more, and often two more levels. 

[Herpa Derpa 6,132]

Obvious bias is obvious, but I find I pull out TTF regularly during the season which I can't say for any other pre-season rag.

[closetojumping 62,918]

2 hours ago, Herpa Derpa said:

Obvious bias is obvious, but I find I pull out TTF regularly during the season which I can't say for any other pre-season rag.

I do that with Phil Steele. 

I bought Wadlington’s magazine last year and enjoyed it. I’ll do it again this year. 

[Park Gothic 5,087]

5 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, stopped buying Dave Campbell's quite awhile back -- content depth and quality fell off too much.

Appreciate the info that folks bring to Surly.  Besides Phil Steele and Athlon's, curious what others find as valuable CFB resources.

Guessing The Athletic will be mentioned -- is Scipio Tex's write-up that valuable??

+1 for Wadlington's Thinking Texas Football. There's maybe not a lot of new information for someone who follows the program closely, but it is nice to have it most of it in one convenient source. His analysis is fine and I enjoy his writing style. I also like supporting people in the Texas media sphere who give a shit and aren't completely assholes. 

[Red Five 41,009]

@Scipio Come join us, won't you. People are saying good things. 

[markstanco 12,640]

On 5/20/2024 at 12:00 PM, closetojumping said:

 

He has Wisconsin and A&M as his #1 and #2 "surprise teams". Right.

 

 

Pretty sure everybody was surprised a school was dumb enough to give a coach 70 million to not coach anymore. 

[TrashMaster G 17,664]

8 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Pretty sure everybody was surprised a school was dumb enough to give a coach 70 million to not coach anymore. 

Until they found out the name of the school, then they be like...

[Wulaw Horn 19,156]

On 5/21/2024 at 8:00 AM, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, stopped buying Dave Campbell's quite awhile back -- content depth and quality fell off too much.

Appreciate the info that folks bring to Surly.  Besides Phil Steele and Athlon's, curious what others find as valuable CFB resources.

Guessing The Athletic will be mentioned -- is Scipio Tex's write-up that valuable??

Only if you care about Texas and want to know more about opponents we will play and enjoy concise and clever writing. 

[perfectchaos007 6,679]

I thought Quinn/Texas earned the cover spot this year given what they've accomplished, but the ghost of Dave Campbell and their editors decided to give aggy/Weigman half the cover. I guess they didn't want to do anything to deter aggy fans from purchasing the mag despite the fact aggy had the full cover in 2021 and Texas last had the full cover in 2017 with the infamous Mensa Tom Herman cover.

 

 

 

[Scipio 61]

On 5/21/2024 at 12:54 PM, Red Five said:

@Scipio Come join us, won't you. People are saying good things. 

Sorry, literally buried writing and publishing the preview. Fun to research but a chore to write. I ended up at 55,000+ words. It's robust.  

I had a ton of institutional knowledge of the Big 12 and I was already pretty good on the premier SEC programs but educating myself on Vandy, Miss St, Kentucky, South Carolina etc was enjoyable. 

I also got balls deep into Michigan, UTSA, Colorado St. The last two are fun if you want to understand what matchups to watch that might level up to better opponents and it's interesting to see how the portal is impacting G5s. Writing UL-Monroe was amusing. I actually feel bad for them. 

A big portion of it is devoted to the Texas roster and I'm pretty sure I have some nuggets for even the most plugged in fan. For example, after reading my Ewers breakdown, you'll leave it with a much better understanding of his strengths and weaknesses as a contextual QB. Play action vs. non play action. Blitzed vs not blitzed. Pressured efficiency. ADOT metrics. It's not all dry - I explain what it means and what level ups look like. 

Will Gallagher's photos are terrific. Best seen in color on the e-version (Smashwords, Apple), but they're pretty good in black and white on the hardcopy from Amazon. 

Some bonus content: recruiting, an essay on why only Two Conferences Matter (Power 4 is an illusion) etc.

If you're interested, you can buy it here.

If you have any questions, feel free. 

Edited July 21 by Scipio

[billfromlaketravis 11,562]

On 6/3/2024 at 10:55 PM, perfectchaos007 said:

I thought Quinn/Texas earned the cover spot this year given what they've accomplished, but the ghost of Dave Campbell and their editors decided to give aggy/Weigman half the cover. I guess they didn't want to do anything to deter aggy fans from purchasing the mag despite the fact aggy had the full cover in 2021 and Texas last had the full cover in 2017 with the infamous Mensa Tom Herman cover.

 

 

 

I finally found the damn thing in a Barnes & Noble. They’re quite bullish on Texas. 11-1 and winning a playoff game. 
 

I think they should drop their college coverage and just focus on high school football. When you invite Mike Craven to write the Longhorns preview, you’re setting yourself up for failure. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 12,555]

38 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Mike Craven

 

[pyrohornIII 4,824]

On 6/3/2024 at 10:55 PM, perfectchaos007 said:

I thought Quinn/Texas earned the cover spot this year given what they've accomplished, but the ghost of Dave Campbell and their editors decided to give aggy/Weigman half the cover. I guess they didn't want to do anything to deter aggy fans from purchasing the mag despite the fact aggy had the full cover in 2021 and Texas last had the full cover in 2017 with the infamous Mensa Tom Herman cover.

 

 

 

Seems like for a few years they published the same magazine but with different covers, dependent on where they were being distributed.  But eventually they succumbed to splitting the cover like this.  Probably had to do it when sales started dropping.  

[TrashMaster G 17,664]

1 hour ago, Scipio said:

Sorry, literally buried writing and publishing the preview. Fun to research but a chore to write. I ended up at 55,000+ words. It's robust.  

I had a ton of institutional knowledge of the Big 12 and I was already pretty good on the premier SEC programs but educating myself on Vandy, Miss St, Kentucky, South Carolina etc was enjoyable. 

I also got balls deep into Michigan, UTSA, Colorado St. The last two are fun if you want to understand what matchups to watch that might level up to better opponents and it's interesting to see how the portal is impacting G5s. Writing UL-Monroe was amusing. I actually feel bad for them. 

A big portion of it is devoted to the Texas roster and I'm pretty sure I have some nuggets for even the most plugged in fan. For example, after reading my Ewers breakdown, you'll leave it with a much better understanding of his strengths and weaknesses as a contextual QB. Play action vs. non play action. Blitzed vs not blitzed. Pressured efficiency. ADOT metrics. It's not all dry - I explain what it means and what level ups look like. 

Will Gallagher's photos are terrific. Best seen in color on the e-version (Smashwords, Apple), but they're pretty good in black and white on the hardcopy from Amazon. 

Some bonus content: recruiting, an essay on why only Two Conferences Matter (Power 4 is an illusion) etc.

If you're interested, you can buy it here.

If you have any questions, feel free. 

Just ordered my printed copy. Thanks.

[BurntEyes 6,038]

2 hours ago, Scipio said:

Sorry, literally buried writing and publishing the preview. Fun to research but a chore to write. I ended up at 55,000+ words. It's robust.  

I had a ton of institutional knowledge of the Big 12 and I was already pretty good on the premier SEC programs but educating myself on Vandy, Miss St, Kentucky, South Carolina etc was enjoyable. 

I also got balls deep into Michigan, UTSA, Colorado St. The last two are fun if you want to understand what matchups to watch that might level up to better opponents and it's interesting to see how the portal is impacting G5s. Writing UL-Monroe was amusing. I actually feel bad for them. 

A big portion of it is devoted to the Texas roster and I'm pretty sure I have some nuggets for even the most plugged in fan. For example, after reading my Ewers breakdown, you'll leave it with a much better understanding of his strengths and weaknesses as a contextual QB. Play action vs. non play action. Blitzed vs not blitzed. Pressured efficiency. ADOT metrics. It's not all dry - I explain what it means and what level ups look like. 

Will Gallagher's photos are terrific. Best seen in color on the e-version (Smashwords, Apple), but they're pretty good in black and white on the hardcopy from Amazon. 

Some bonus content: recruiting, an essay on why only Two Conferences Matter (Power 4 is an illusion) etc.

If you're interested, you can buy it here.

If you have any questions, feel free. 

Purchased to support Surly folk and get my "knowledge" on.