2024 Texas Baseball

[Hookem2147 21188]

Might as well get this up now. Might take a few days to recover from tonight. Updated the overall roster tracker a little:

-Added Casey Cummings (new JUCO commit)

-Moved Zane Morehouse into the potentially leaving category (if you throw 96 MPH cutters the MLB will probably find you)

-Added signee Hayden Morris (RHP) to the potential draft risks. He is getting some buzz.

Spoiler

Pitchers

*=guys who graduated this year. Guys who already graduated might be more likely to move on (via portal, moving on to the real world, pro ball, etc)

Out of eligibility (0): None

Likely gone to the draft (3): RHP Tanner Witt, LHP Lucas Gordon, RHP Lebarron Johnson

Draft eligible, there is a chance (1):  RHP Zane Morehouse*

Draft eligible, but probably not a huge risk (4): RHP Charlie Hurley,, RHP Travis Sthele, RHP Heston Tole, RHP Andre Duplantier*

Draft eligible, basically zero chance (3): LHP Chase Lummus*, LHP Chris Stuart, LHP Sam Walbridge*, 

Not draft eligible (7): LHP David Shaw, RHP Kobe Minchey, RHP Max Grubbs, RHP Pierce George, LHP Ace Whitehead, RHP Cody Howard, RHP Cameron O'Banan

Coming off injury (1): LHP Luke Harrison

Incoming JUCO kids (1): RHP Gage Boehm from San Jac (draft risk, would be a big win to get on campus. Would immediately be a backend reliever)

Incoming HS kids, draft risk (3): RHP Travis Sykora (100% gone), RHP Easton Tumis, RHP Hayden Morris

Incoming HS kids, minimal draft risk (5): RHP Cole Selvig, RHP Hudson Hamilton, RHP Evan Miranda, RHP George Zaharias, RHP Matt Zatopek. First 4 names are all guys who should be able to throw some innings out of the pen next year as they get their feet wet.

Portal commits: TBD

Portal Needs: 2 weekend starters, 2-3 relievers, lefty specialist if Shaw's injury is significant

Hitters

Out of eligibility (2): OF Eric Kennedy, INF Tanner Carlson*

Likely gone to the draft (1): OF Dylan Campbell

Draft eligible, might go either way (3): 3B Peyton Powell (1 healthy season, does he have the arm to stick at 3B at the next level?), OF Porter Brown* (already old, defensive question marks, has had 1 good year), C Garret Guillemette (Some questions defensively, but beginning to think he might go)

Draft eligible, but not a huge risk (1): 2B Jack O'Dowd

Draft eligible, basically zero chance (2): INF Mitchell Daly, 1B Cam Constantine*, C Preston Hoffart (walk-on)*

Not draft eligible (7): INF/OF Jayden Duplantier, INF Jalin Flores, C Rylan Galvan, OF Max Belyeu, 1B Jared Thomas, INF Cade O'Hara, C Grant Fahrlander (walk-on)

Coming off injury (1): C Kimble Schuessler

Incoming JUCO kids (1): OF Casey Cummings (hit over .360 with 17 homers and 20+ steals this year)

Incoming HS kids, draft risk (3): OF Will Gasparino (98% likely gone), 3B Casey Borba (don't think he had the best senior year but was getting some buzz before the year), C Nik Sanders (tools for days, 5 years ago he is definitely gone but he might be someone who sneaks through the draft)

Incoming HS kids, minimal draft risk (7): MIF/OF Dondreone Kennedy, C Oliver Service, MIF Sam Ardoin (Silas' little brother, damn good player), MIF Lane Allen, 3B Ean Czech (brother of the softball player), OF Blake Peterson (Austin Westlake), 1B MJ Sweeney (son of Mike Sweeney). Ardoin, Sweeney and Kennedy can hit. Could find some playing time as freshman. Service is a wildcard. Plays HS ball in Michigan against awful competition but absolutely dominated.

Portal commits(1): OF Seth Werchan (walk-on, from Austin. Started 100 games for Penn but isn't a hitter. Defense and speed. Will be a backup for us but he likes to make fun of the Aggies so he's fine in my book).

Portal Needs: 1-2 OF, 3B if Powell doesn't return and Borba doesn't make it to campus, potentially SS if they want to move Flores back to 3B

 

[troph 24781]

We’ve got some significant holes to fill if we need two starters from the portal. 

[Valmy77 13225]

Usually nothing really to talk about until after the draft.

But in the era of the portal we might be able to start plugging of our holes sooner rather than later.

[chase25 2048]

You think an MLB team still takes a flyer early in the draft on Witt or you just think Witt leaves regardless

[HtownHorn 14663]

Got to think the IF returns intact with Thomas, O'Dowd, Daly, Flores, and Schuessler. Cummings easily has one of the OF jobs. Need 2 OFs and a DH. If Powell somehow comes back, then Flores is the DH.

2 minutes ago, chase25 said:

You think an MLB team still takes a flyer early in the draft on Witt or you just think Witt leaves regardless

Witt isn't coming back.

[HenryJames 66034]

22 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Portal Needs: 2 weekend starters, 2-3 relievers, lefty specialist if Shaw's injury is significant

No problem.

[Hookem2147 21188]

We should return more on the position player side compared to last year but will likely lose more on the mound.

I'm not worried about catcher at all. If Guillemette comes back then that's awesome, if not then I've seen enough from Galvan to have confidence he will be a solid player and Nik Sanders is a damn good catcher if he makes it to campus. I don't think Schuessler is a starter level player but he's nice depth and will be back from injury.

Biggest question on the infield will be where they slot in Flores (3B or SS). I don't see anyway Flores is the DH. He is a draft eligible sophomore and will want to be in the field. The Daly question looms large and I'm assuming will be answered pretty quickly. O'Dowd and Thomas seem set on one side of the infield, although if they want to bring in a first bat at 1B, Thomas could shift to RF.

OF is simple. If Brown wants to return then I would welcome him back. Cummings will likely slide into CF and RF will be Belyeu/transfer/juco. Duplantier likely factors in somewhere as depth.

For pitching, if they get Tumis and Morris to campus, that will be a huge win and clarify needs. Morris is an immediate bullpen guy and Tumis a fringe guy who could probably be a midweek type starter. If Hurley and Sthele come back that gives you some insurance for Sunday/midweek guys, but the need is clear for a frontline starter and a #2.

[tx 3 putt 76862]

imo - college baseball is drastically changing. you'll still go after and recruit the 5 star kids, but after that you hit the portal for proven players. then fill in with 4/3 star hs kids 

 

incoming HS kids, minimal draft risk (5) <<<< do you want 5 unproven HS kids or 2 unproven hs kids and 3 established college arms ?

[Hookem2147 21188]

33 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

imo - college baseball is drastically changing. you'll still go after and recruit the 5 star kids, but after that you hit the portal for proven players. then fill in with 4/3 star hs kids 

 

incoming HS kids, minimal draft risk (5) <<<< do you want 5 unproven HS kids or 2 unproven hs kids and 3 established college arms ?

I see what you are saying, but you have to have both or else your roster is going be unbalanced. Texas did not bring in many HS pitchers the last few years so they had to load up a bit more this year and next. 

Most portal impact guys are one year guys (2 years max), so if you rely too heavily on them you are just turning over your roster year after year. Have to find the proper balance.

[tx 3 putt 76862]

8 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

I see what you are saying, but you have to have both or else your roster is going be unbalanced. Texas did not bring in many HS pitchers the last few years so they had to load up a bit more this year and next. 

Most portal impact guys are one year guys (2 years max), so if you rely too heavily on them you are just turning over your roster year after year. Have to find the proper balance.

 

it's a whole new college baseball game with the portal 

[Rholl 217]

I get that Sykora is a pipe dream…. but Im dreaming big.  

[UTPhil2006 3801]

Fuck off here too 

[Snake Diggity 4619]

I think we finally catch a break in that Sykora and Gasparino are going to be the only recruits we lose to the draft.  The infield and bullpen are going to be very good.  They will be able to sort thru returning guys to find weekday/Sunday SP.  If Porter Brown comes back they should be ok in the OF although I imagine they’ll be looking for 1 OF in the portal either way.  Friday/Saturday SP is the thing that will determine how far they go; the portal will make or break next year’s expectations.

[OB3 3608]

Sounds like he’s gone

[kingkoopa6 8344]

Can we NIL slap all the best portal pitchers and let them compete in house?

load up….and survivor of the fittest.

Edited June 13, 2023 by kingkoopa6

[Had Enough 2076]

Can we NIL slap all the best portal pitchers and let them compete in house?
load up….and survivor of the fittest.

Quick count. Of the top 50 pitchers in ERA, 16 are underclassmen and presumably not draft eligible. And actually redshirts and older kids could lower that number.

But most of them are smaller school kids or pitch at Wake.

I’d guess there won’t be a lot of competing in house. Your 1 or 2 top line picks better hit as starters. Building out a competitive bullpen is a little different as you can never have too many. But unless you’re talking closer those reliever’s probably aren’t big time arms.

[Valmy77 13225]

32 minutes ago, OB3 said:

Sounds like he’s gone

So his nickname was G-Wagon this whole time? Huh. I had no idea.

[Hookem2147 21188]

39 minutes ago, OB3 said:

Sounds like he’s gone

Seems more like just a simple thank you post to me. Impossible to know for sure that you are going pro at this point because what if a team doesn't draft you til the 15th round. Interest has to work both ways.

I still lean towards he is probably not returning but it's not a slam dunk.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Hookem2147

[Valmy77 13225]

I do like the fact that he came from USC and then said what an honor it was to be part of a historic program like Texas. 

[closetojumping 62510]

Gordon isn't a sure thing for the draft if some guys involved with the program are accurate. NIL will be used as much for defense as offense in this cycle, both keeping guys and getting a signee or two on campus. 

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

Need power hitters

[hobbes2702 13028]

We are absolutely fucked if we don’t get a true Friday night starter in the portal.

[Hookem2147 21188]

23 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Gordon isn't a sure thing for the draft if some guys involved with the program are accurate. NIL will be used as much for defense as offense in this cycle, both keeping guys and getting a signee or two on campus. 

Makes sense. He isn't a big 'stuff' guy and MLB teams typically like the pitchers that have big time stuff. Seems like a prime candidate in the NIL age to get back.

Not sure how big of a role NIL played last year in getting Flores on campus but that was a big win considering where he was projected to go. Would be nice to have a repeat of that with a signee or two.

[ztejas 43411]

A real closer and a real short stop would be nice. Whether those guys are on the roster already or not. 

[Texas Jeff 1942]

After next year, you’re unlikely to attend Texas baseball game west of I35. If someone in Lubbock owes you money, you might want to collect now…

[UTPhil2006 3801]

33 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Makes sense. He isn't a big 'stuff' guy and MLB teams typically like the pitchers that have big time stuff. Seems like a prime candidate in the NIL age to get back.

Not sure how big of a role NIL played last year in getting Flores on campus but that was a big win considering where he was projected to go. Would be nice to have a repeat of that with a signee or two.

You still hearing the same 100k for players? All the tweets seem to back it up 

[Skipper 6127]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Gordon isn't a sure thing for the draft if some guys involved with the program are accurate. NIL will be used as much for defense as offense in this cycle, both keeping guys and getting a signee or two on campus. 

How competitive are we in baseball for NIL?  Do we have a handful of larger donors or a decent sized group of small monthly contributors?  I probably need to go add a baseball only small monthly donation.

[HenryJames 66034]

There’s at least one large donor.

[tx 3 putt 76862]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

How competitive are we in baseball for NIL?  Do we have a handful of larger donors or a decent sized group of small monthly contributors?  I probably need to go add a baseball only small monthly donation.

[Texas Jeff 1942]

After next year, you’re unlikely to attend Texas baseball game west of I35. If someone in Lubbock owes you money, you might want to collect now…

Outside of Omaha of course, which is the center of things and thus isn’t west of anywhere.. :-)

[Hook1997 5351]

Everyone thinks Witt is a for sure for the draft this year?  After a season with a 10 era I’d think maybe he would want to come back to bring his stock up or to idk start pitching good again before going to the draft…. 

[Hookem2147 21188]

3 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Everyone thinks Witt is a for sure for the draft this year?  After a season with a 10 era I’d think maybe he would want to come back to bring his stock up or to idk start pitching good again before going to the draft…. 

Tommy John doesn’t scare MLB teams. Teams remember what he looked like in 2021. They are well aware of the recovery timeline and the ups and downs it takes to come back. The fact he went out and threw off a mound is more important than the results. His secondary offerings looked good. Fastball command was the biggest issue and that’s not too surprising.

He’s in the top 75 overall players in every mock I’ve seen. If he comes back he can at best work himself a little further up a draft board he is already pretty high up on, or at worst get hurt again/have a bad year and plummet.

Choice seems pretty clear.

[Had Enough 2076]

There’s at least one large donor.

Thank you @HenryJames

[Hook1997 5351]

15 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Tommy John doesn’t scare MLB teams. Teams remember what he looked like in 2021. They are well aware of the recovery timeline and the ups and downs it takes to come back. The fact he went out and threw off a mound is more important than the results. His secondary offerings looked good. Fastball command was the biggest issue and that’s not too surprising.

He’s in the top 75 overall players in every mock I’ve seen. If he comes back he can at best work himself a little further up a draft board he is already pretty high up on, or at worst get hurt again/have a bad year and plummet.

Choice seems pretty clear.

I get that but if I’m a mlb team I’m not drafting him high after seeing after surgery Witt.  I’ll be pretty amazed if he goes top 75 but we will see.  He was throwing BP out there every outing and had 7 k’s in all his appearances, if I was him I’d rather work that out in college than minor leagues and I’d imagine the money might be better for him minus the signing bonus in college.  

[Snake Diggity 4619]

Can Jared Thomas play the corner OF?  That could fill an OF spot while opening up 1B for Sweeney.  

[hobbes2702 13028]

35 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Everyone thinks Witt is a for sure for the draft this year?  After a season with a 10 era I’d think maybe he would want to come back to bring his stock up or to idk start pitching good again before going to the draft…. 

He’s gonna get picked in the first 3 rounds at worst. He’s gone

[HenryJames 66034]

2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Can Jared Thomas play the corner OF?  That could fill an OF spot while opening up 1B for Sweeney.  

He did in high school, and he's certainly fast enough to play outfield in college.

[Had Enough 2076]

Outside of Burke is there anyone destined for the portal?

[Snake Diggity 4619]

Ok here would be a hypothetical contributing lineup/roster for now:

RF Thomas

DH Powell*

LF Brown*

CF Cummings

3B Borba*

1B Sweeney

2B O’Dowd

SS Flores

C Galvan

Bench: C Sanders, C Schuessler, OF Belyeu, IF Constantine, IF/OF Duplantier, IF Ardoin, IF O’Hara, OF Kennedy

SP: TBD*, TBD*, Hurley, Sthele, Whitehead, Harrison, Tumis

RP: Boehm*, Tole, Duplantier, Shaw, Morris*, Lummus, Selvig, Hamilton, Walbridge, Minchey, Grubbs

Edited June 13, 2023 by Snake Diggity

[Hookem2147 21188]

Fairly confident this kid will be pitching in the backend of games for us immediately

 

[closetojumping 62510]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

How competitive are we in baseball for NIL?  Do we have a handful of larger donors or a decent sized group of small monthly contributors?  I probably need to go add a baseball only small monthly donation.

There are a few significant donors. They're not as huge as the basketball or football people, at least I don't think that is the case, but they're there. In addition, the monthly small base is growing. If it grows at its current pace, the baseball NIL program will be elite in like 3 years. It's very competitive now, and it remains to be seen if LSU has the same kind of money that they deployed last cycle. I would expect anyone with a rabid fanbase who think they're close to winning it all to go a little nuts in each cycle. 

16 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

Outside of Burke is there anyone destined for the portal?

As I mentioned, there is some transfer risk attached to NIL. If someone tampers and puts a whopper out there, it could impact Texas. But, Texas is prepared to be defensive should that happen with a key piece. Gordon, as a for instance, is going to have significant incentives to stick. I haven't seen him in a top 300 list lately. Where do all you guys see that he's projected to go? What is the slot money for that whatever range in the draft that is? Tell me that and I can tell you if keeping him is a pipe dream.

[PantsTent 2002]

$167k for pick 300

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-slot-values-for-each-team/#:~:text=Slot values for the draft,%248%2C846%2C900 in the 2022 draft.

 

[Hookem2147 21188]

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I haven't seen him in a top 300 list lately. Where do all you guys see that he's projected to go? What is the slot money for that whatever range in the draft that is? Tell me that and I can tell you if keeping him is a pipe dream.

You are correct. I haven't seen him in the top 300 in any mocks I've seen. I've mostly seen him around 350-400.

Round 11 starts at pick 314, and the max signing bonus for any player after round 10 is 125k. If a team goes over 125k to sign a guy outside the top 10 rounds, it counts towards their bonus pool they are assigned for the top 10 rounds so teams typically do not like to do it.

[closetojumping 62510]

46 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

$167k for pick 300

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-slot-values-for-each-team/#:~:text=Slot values for the draft,%248%2C846%2C900 in the 2022 draft.

 

 

40 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

You are correct. I haven't seen him in the top 300 in any mocks I've seen. I've mostly seen him around 350-400.

Round 11 starts at pick 314, and the max signing bonus for any player after round 10 is 125k. If a team goes over 125k to sign a guy outside the top 10 rounds, it counts towards their bonus pool they are assigned for the top 10 rounds so teams typically do not like to do it.

Gordon will really have to want to leave if he's slotted in this range, because his package to stay will likely be bigger than this. I think that is why people closer to the team have a lot of optimism. Don't take it as gospel or anything, y'all know shit happens, but apparently there is plenty of room to work with here if he wants to come back.

[hobbes2702 13028]

Can’t one of you rich guys just give Sykora a few million?

[txhorns 2409]

Am I allowed to dream of a weekend rotation next year that has Gordon, Witt and Sykora?

[Valmy77 13225]

Is LBJ gone for sure then? He was just a Sophomore IIRC

[Had Enough 2076]

Am I allowed to dream of a weekend rotation next year that has Gordon, Witt and Sykora?

Dream away. Just don’t get your hopes up.

[HenryJames 66034]

22 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Is LBJ gone for sure then? He was just a Sophomore IIRC

Redshirt sophomore.

[HenryJames 66034]