2024 Texas Baseball

[Hookem2147 21,194]

4 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

That’s in Virginias team ERA range.  They’re ranked #10 in the polls.

The team ERA of 5.61 would be 115th out of 295 teams.  There are 10 teams with ERAs at or below 4.00.  None below 3.00.

Pretty sure that ERA is in the vicinity of A&Ms 3rd starter two years ago.  May be where LSUs guy (not Skenes) last year was before his final CWS appearance last year.  You’re likely to see starting pitchers in the CWS pretty close to that.

The problem is that he hasn’t been 5.61 good lately.   I’d bet Hurley gets another chance soon.

It was posted in the NCAA Baseball thread but Kendall Rogers had a comment today about the overall state of pitching in college baseball. Said it's harder than ever to pitch with the smaller strike zones and ball that is being used that is geared towards offense. Plus ERA isn't always the best stat to use because of how shaky defense (and official scoring) can be at this level.

It's why the guys who miss bats are so coveted. Coaches can live with the dude with a 4.7 ERA that strikes out over a batter per inning because if the ball isn't being put in play they feel like they can't get hurt as much.

[Had Enough 2,078]

I saw that in the other thread.  Scores are crazy.  It’s not unusual to see multiple run rules game a day in the ACC/SEC.

I have yet to see a runs per game stat for individual pitchers and not sure if all the advanced analytics have trickled down to college.  Many of these are beyond my understanding anyway.

If you can’t consistently score more than 5 or 6 runs, it’s likely you have a problem because the odds are you’re giving up that many on a regular basis.

[zlavydra 2,119]

1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

The 3:1 SO:BB ratio is pretty damn nice. Don't love the OBA, hopefully it improves next year.  Looks like his WHIP is 1.34, which also needs serious improvement. Would love for him to take a solid step forward next year.

You have to adjust expectations a bit. A 1.34 WHIP for a college pitcher isn't that bad.  It pales in comparison to OSU's Saturday guy, who had a sub-1.00 WHIP, but that's a huge outlier.  

[Hookem2147 21,194]

2 minutes ago, zlavydra said:

You have to adjust expectations a bit. A 1.34 WHIP for a college pitcher isn't that bad.  It pales in comparison to OSU's Saturday guy, who had a sub-1.00 WHIP, but that's a huge outlier.  

Yep. Only 24 teams in the country currently have better than a 1.34 WHIP as a staff.

Anything below 1.25ish is elite at the college level. Lucas Gordon had a 1.15 WHIP last year. Anything in the 1.30-1.35 area is pretty good for a starter.

[chase25 2,048]

7 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Agreed. Will be interesting to see what ends up happening with him and Whitehead, both of whom have held their own this year and compete well but I worry about against better lineups. 

Obviously, starting to pitch in the portal is a bloodbath. I'm hopeful we get this lefty from San Jac to campus that we've had committed since the fall. Been up to 96 this year and has 100 strikeouts in 56 innings. Would be an immediate weekend guy. https://www.njcaa.org/sports/bsb/2023-24/div1/players/brandonarvidsonpt3d?view=profile

If Ace can get healthy and creep his fastball up to 90 it will make his life much much easier.

For max it’s just about improving the slider, if he can develop that he’ll be fine in the SEC. 

[B00M 6,413]

7 hours ago, chase25 said:

If Ace can get healthy and creep his fastball up to 90 it will make his life much much easier.

Get healthy? Fuck, what did I miss??

[MuellerHorn 4,228]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Get healthy? Fuck, what did I miss??

Thankfully, nothing recent. 

@Hookem2147 has previously said that Ace is dealing with a nagging injury, which is why his velo is down and the reason we didn’t see him much at the beginning of the season. He’ll apparently have it cleaned up after the season. 

[Hookem2147 21,194]

Something in the wrist/hand area is what I heard a while back. Has gotten at least one injection to try to help it but sounds like it won’t be something that fully goes away til the offseason.

He has walked 8 in his last 7.1 innings so I was wondering on Saturday if it might be flaring up more than normal.

Kid is a warrior though. The fact he is getting P5 hitters out with his stuff is a testament to knowing how to pitch.

Edited May 7 by Hookem2147

[chase25 2,048]

It really is disheartening that Lebarron didn't do anything to get better after last year, which makes his decision to comeback that much worse. He has the ability and pitch mix to be an elite arm if he could just command his offspeed. This is where players have to take self accountability in their own development, coaches can only do so much.

He is the only thing this team is missing. Offense is Omaha worthy, Ace and Max as #2 and #3 starters are Omaha worthy, Andre, Gage and the rest of the bullpen are enough. Just no #1.

If Texas is able to make it to a game 3 in a regional I honestly think I would roll with Hurley which is sad to say

Edited May 7 by chase25

[Hookem2147 21,194]

12 minutes ago, chase25 said:

Offense is Omaha worthy

I think it is a very good offense. Not sure if it is Omaha caliber. Too many games where the offense disappeared against arms they shouldn't be disappearing against (think Friday nights against Washington, UH, BYU, Baylor. Midweeks against A&M Corpus and Texas State). Also a little too reliant on the home run ball for my liking at times.

Considering the current lineup construction (3 freshmen, 4 sophomores, a junior and a senior), maybe it is just the youth showing. We can also go long stretches where we get next to nothing from Gasparino and Kennedy at the bottom so that makes things tough.

Edited May 7 by Hookem2147

[MuellerHorn 4,228]

19 minutes ago, chase25 said:

It really is disheartening that Lebarron didn't do anything to get better after last year, which makes his decision to comeback that much worse. He has the ability and pitch mix to be an elite arm if he could just command his offspeed. This is where players have to take self accountability in their own development, coaches can only do so much.

He is the only thing this team is missing.

Needs more movement/action/ride on his fastball too. There's not much there except velo. However, I otherwise agree with what you said. He's basically a two-pitch guy; and one of those pitches he can't locate, and the other is fast but doesn't move at all.

[chase25 2,048]

1 minute ago, Hookem2147 said:

I think it is a very good offense. Not sure if it is Omaha caliber. Too many games where the offense disappeared against arms they shouldn't be disappearing against (think Friday nights against UH, BYU, Baylor. Midweeks against A&M Corpus and Texas State). Also a little too reliant on the home run ball for my liking at times.

Considering the current lineup construction (3 freshmen, 4 sophomores, a junior and a senior), maybe it is just the youth showing. We can also go long stretches where we get next to nothing from Gasparino and Kennedy at the bottom so that makes things tough.

You can find those flaws in just about any lineup minus a handful. Our pitching puts pressure on our offense to always be on as well. This past weekend is a perfect example of how you have to win in baseball when you face quality competition. Pitching was good and the offense got timely clutch hits. Arkansas is hitting .271 as a team, they just have 2 front end arms that carry them every weekend. We are 9th in the country in SLG when you only factor in major conference teams (16th overall). This offense has also roughed up some arms you shouldn't in Wentworth, Neighbors, etc. This team is missing that Duke Ellis/Eric Kennedy which I think you mentioned the other day should be Dee Kennedy's role on this team and I have no idea why he doesn't do more to get on base and create havoc.

We don't exactly abide by the tride and true winning formula in baseball which is why you get the jekyll and hide but this offense is good enough to get to Omaha. As an offense they are sitting at a 2.5:1 K/BB ratio which isn't great but Gasparino has 8 walks and 63 strikeouts which makes that number look a lot worse than the collective team has been. Without Gasparino they are 2:1 as a team. Will struggles to recognize spin which isn't that surprising given his height and his life is made more difficult by the inconsistency of college umpiring trying to navigate a 6'6 strikezone.

[chase25 2,048]

15 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

Needs more movement/action/ride on his fastball too. There's not much there except velo. However, I otherwise agree with what you said. He's basically a two-pitch guy; and one of those pitches he can't locate, and the other is fast but doesn't move at all.

I don't have as much issue with his fastball simply because his offspeed allows teams to sit on it. Carson Benge who we just faced has dominated with a straight 90-94 fastball all year long because he has a dominant 12-6 curve that sits 12-14 mph off his fastball and it buckled us all day long. Benge is pretty much Tanner Witt.

It obviously would not hurt Lebarron to have some run or cut on his fastball though, just unfortunate that his slider and splitter are dirt balls.

[MuellerHorn 4,228]

4 minutes ago, chase25 said:

I don't have as much issue with his fastball simply because his offspeed allows teams to sit on it. Carson Benge who we just faced has dominated with a straight 90-94 fastball all year long because he has a dominant 12-6 curve that sits 12-14 mph off his fastball and it buckled us all day long. Benge is pretty much Tanner Witt.

It obviously would not hurt Lebarron to have some run or cut on his fastball though, just unfortunate that his slider and splitter are dirt balls.

100%

[chase25 2,048]

@Hookem2147 What are you hearing with Boehm as far as the draft and how high he goes?

 

 

[Hookem2147 21,194]

21 minutes ago, chase25 said:

@Hookem2147 What are you hearing with Boehm as far as the draft and how high he goes?

 

 

Relievers have tricky draft prospects. Guys like Tyson Neighbors who throw 100 will go top 5 rounds but I don't see Boehm going that high. He just has a different type of profile than what you normally see. You don't see many 6'5 255, 255-pound guys who lean heavily on their breaking ball while only touching 93-94 with their fastball on good days.

He will be 23 in November so he is on the older side. That's a double-edged sword because these models MLB teams lean on often ding older draft-eligible players, but a guy who is that old might also be inclined to start his pro career now even if he isn't drafted super high, especially with how short the shelf life can be for pitchers.

Edited May 7 by Hookem2147

[chase25 2,048]

17 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Relievers have tricky draft prospects. Guys like Tyson Neighbors who throw 100 will go top 5 rounds but I don't see Boehm going that high. He just has a different type of profile than what you normally see. You don't see many 6'5 255, 255-pound guys who lean heavily on their breaking ball while only touching 93-94 with their fastball on good days.

He will be 23 in November so he is on the older side. That's a double-edged sword because these models MLB teams lean on often ding older draft-eligible players, but a guy who is that old might also be inclined to start his pro career now even if he isn't drafted super high, especially with how short the shelf life can be for pitchers.

Was trying to gage (no pun intended) the likelihood of him coming back next year and trying to be a starter 

[.45s 28]

1.  Does Tanner Witt have any eligibility remaining?  His draft prospects seem pretty bleak right now.  He has played in 4 seasons but I don't know if he got a medical reprieve from last year or got any of the COVID extra eligibility.

 

2.  Any information or updates on the new commit, Kyrin LeBlanc?  The fastball sounds great, but he does not seem to have much control yet and is definitely a project. In those 19.1 innings this year (15 appearances) he gave up 15 hits and 19 walks, as well as 10 hit batters and 2 wild pitches. He only pitched 2.2 innings for Cisco Junior College last year. It would be nice to get some pitchers that already throw strikes and throw hard. He is old for the class and may have had grade issues because it appears that he was offered by Xavier of Louisiana while in high school, but somehow wound up at Cisco.

[Hookem2147 21,194]

4 minutes ago, chase25 said:

Was trying to gage (no pun intended) the likelihood of him coming back next year and trying to be a starter 

That is probably the selling point if he were to return. That and NIL and whatever the hell happens with this coaching staff in about 4 weeks.

[Hookem2147 21,194]

2 minutes ago, .45s said:

1.  Does Tanner Witt have any eligibility remaining?  His draft prospects seem pretty bleak right now.  He has played in 4 seasons but I don't know if he got a medical reprieve from last year or got any of the COVID extra eligibility.

 

2.  Any information or updates on the new commit, Kyrin LeBlanc?  The fastball sounds great, but he does not seem to have much control yet and is definitely a project. In those 19.1 innings this year (15 appearances) he gave up 15 hits and 19 walks, as well as 10 hit batters and 2 wild pitches. He only pitched 2.2 innings for Cisco Junior College last year. It would be nice to get some pitchers that already throw strikes and throw hard. He is old for the class and may have had grade issues because it appears that he was offered by Xavier of Louisiana while in high school, but somehow wound up at Cisco.

1. Yes, Witt is a redshirt junior. Got a medical redshirt for the 2022 season. Even with his draft stock tanking, my guess is he has thrown his last pitch as a Longhorn.

2. LeBlanc just started pitching full-time this year, so yes, he is extremely raw. Was previously committed to Texas State but started getting interest from some big boys and backed off that pledge. 

[Bevo&Pevo 5,120]

Too bad there isn't a game tonight, we were 8-3 on Tuesdays. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,236]

21 hours ago, chase25 said:

It really is disheartening that Lebarron didn't do anything to get better after last year, which makes his decision to comeback that much worse. He has the ability and pitch mix to be an elite arm if he could just command his offspeed. This is where players have to take self accountability in their own development, coaches can only do so much.

He is the only thing this team is missing. Offense is Omaha worthy, Ace and Max as #2 and #3 starters are Omaha worthy, Andre, Gage and the rest of the bullpen are enough. Just no #1.

If Texas is able to make it to a game 3 in a regional I honestly think I would roll with Hurley which is sad to say

This is a bad take. They have been way too hot and cold to be "Omaha Worthy." They have definitely improved as of late and if they are hot in the tourney, anything can happen, the talent is there. But they have been quiet in so many high leverage situations all year and have also disappeared for games at a time.  

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

[chase25 2,048]

1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This is a bad take. They have been way too hot and cold to be "Omaha Worthy." They have definitely improved as of late and if they are hot in the tourney, anything can happen, the talent is there. But they have been quiet in so many high leverage situations all year and have also disappeared for games at a time.  

That is any offense

[Herpa Derpa 6,123]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Wouldn't mind sticking it to those Cackalacky inbreds again.

[dcar00 14,153]

28 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

Wouldn't mind sticking it to those Cackalacky inbreds again.

not a fan of that field at all but maybe the band box helps us?

[NorthLoop 14,181]

Will forever hate that trash school and fanbase, but honestly that would be a good regional for us. 

Edited May 8 by NorthLoop

[Had Enough 2,078]

1 hour ago, chase25 said:

That is any offense

Yeah, I would say every team is hoping their offense is hot at the right time.  Same for their pitching.

And it’s less about what they have done and more of what they’re capable of doing.  The what you have done theoretically gets you a easier road, but it’s the how well you do that advances you.

[D3zii 3,675]

3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

 

Anytime I think of ECU baseball I think of Dylan Campbell, he was the absolute reason we turned that game and series around!!!

[Hookem2147 21,194]

In the postseason, you don't see as much of the middle relievers and midweek starters you can pad the stats against during the regular season. Teams find their best 4-5 arms and will run them into the ground before they turn to someone they don't trust as much. It makes life tougher for hitters, and it's part of the reason it is so important to get in the winner's bracket so you can try to catch teams when their arms are running on fumes.

With a team like ours that doesn't walk a lot and strikes out quite a bit, it is a concern, and we are likely very matchup-dependent. 

Edited May 8 by Hookem2147

[Balcones 317]

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

9 minutes ago, Balcones said:

Dislike. 

[chase25 2,048]

19 minutes ago, Balcones said:

We are due for a regional like this and I wouldn't mind it. Obviously there are much easier regional matchups but this would be a fun one

[petscii 1,189]

WE'RE GOING BACK TO CALI< CALI....

 

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

5 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Will forever hate that trash school and fanbase, but honestly that would be a good regional for us. 

I'd take that regional right now.

[MuellerHorn 4,228]

4 hours ago, chase25 said:

We are due for a regional like this and I wouldn't mind it. Obviously there are much easier regional matchups but this would be a fun one

I would mind it. We don't match up well with Pig's pitching.

[chase25 2,048]

6 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

I would mind it. We don't match up well with Pig's pitching.

Nobody does, but they have an average offense. There are worse matchups overall in terms of teams that have better offenses to pair with their pitching but Hagen Smith is the toughest matchup in college baseball.

Plus if you can get through it it’s paired with a regional that has serious upset potential

[Hookem2147 21,194]

TOF news:

Our largest baseball NIL donor has committed to matching dollar for dollar during May up to 250K in new donations that are designated to baseball. 

[jimmyjazz 45,887]

Up to 44 in RPI.  UCF drops to 40.  Kansas is at 65.

Kentucky moved ahead of A&M for the 1/2 spots.  Arkansas is 4, so getting sent either there or College Station would be tough, but pretty likely from what I've read.

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

24 in BA. 25 in D1. 18 in PG 

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

On 5/10/2024 at 9:38 AM, Hookem2147 said:

TOF news:

Our largest baseball NIL donor has committed to matching dollar for dollar during May up to 250K in new donations that are designated to baseball. 

Glad that will be spread to all players evenly and not used to target a big portal player 🙏

[UnhappilyMarried 815]

On 5/8/2024 at 2:52 PM, chase25 said:

We are due for a regional like this and I wouldn't mind it. Obviously there are much easier regional matchups but this would be a fun one

Pretty true. We’ve had cake walk home regionals for nearly a decade and some convenient supers matchup upsets. ECU the lone exception.

Miami and Stanford are about as tame as they come last year. Avoided Oxford and Gainesville (or would UF have come to us?) recently. 2014 the last true hostile regional. 15 was tough, but not hostile. 

Edited May 13 by UnhappilyMarried

[BigOrange1 6,432]

i'd think with a series win over ku and a win or two in arlington we'd have done more than enough to be a 2 seed in a favorable regional (ie, not one of the top 8 national seeds).

[MuellerHorn 4,228]

1 hour ago, BigOrange1 said:

i'd think with a series win over ku and a win or two in arlington we'd have done more than enough to be a 2 seed in a favorable regional (ie, not one of the top 8 national seeds).

Agreed. Here are some reasons:

1. There a few teams ranked ahead of Texas in the RPI that may not even make the tourney; there are even more that won't secure a higher/more advantageous seed/draw based on the totality of their résumé.
2. Texas' (current) 12 Q1 wins are tied for third-most in the country, behind Kentucky and Tennessee. While the Q4 losses will keep Texas from hosting, the Q1 wins should help with the draw. These Q1 wins will help Texas' KPI rating, while the Q4 losses will hurt it a lot in comparison to other P5 teams. This is the wildcard here. Mid-majors generally have lower KPIs than RPIs, so Texas' Q1 wins should help here still. 
3. Texas' conference and non-con SOS are currently top-30. Many similar RPI teams have much worse rankings here. 
4. Texas is likely to finish third or fourth in the third-best RPI conference. If third, OU and OSU are likely hosts.
5. Texas has played much better to end the regualr season against good competition. While I know this isn't supposed to affect seeding, I still think it does to an extent.
6. Predicted RPI for Texas is 40th (35-20, 20-10). This means it thinks we sweep KU. However, all the above applies. It's liekly that Texas will be viewed as a team somewhere in the 17-24, which would help us miss at top-8 seed.

RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-live

Conference Standings & RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/conference/Big-12

Conference Comparison: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-conference

Predicted RPI: https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2024/rpi-predict

Edited May 13 by MuellerHorn

[MuellerHorn 4,228]

I butchered point 6 trying to edit before the window closed:

6. Predicted RPI for Texas is 40th (35-20, 20-10). This means it thinks we sweep KU. However, all the above applies. It's likely that Texas will be viewed as a team somewhere in the 17-24 range, which would help us miss a top-8 seed. Even if this is not the case, maybe we get a favorable matchup.

Caveats:

1. A bad collapse against KU and then in the conference tourney.

2. The NCAA's potential insatiable desire (fuckery afoot) to send Texas to College Station or Fayetteville regardless of any metrics.

[TrashMaster G 17,543]

We don't sweep.  It isn't our thing.

[Valmy77 13,225]

Texas is 0.5 games behind Oklahoma State with three games to go. That first round bye in the Big 12 tournament would be nice.

Edited May 13 by Valmy77

[Balcones 317]

1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

We don't sweep.  It isn't our thing.

Unless you are Cal Poly. In that case, we sweep with 3 straight shutouts.

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

51 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Texas is 0.5 games behind Oklahoma State with three games to go. That first round bye in the Big 12 tournament would be nice.

Why Hookem2147 assured us the Big 12 tourney doesn't matter.

[WBT 20,561]

4 hours ago, MuellerHorn said:

 

2. The NCAA's potential insatiable desire (fuckery afoot) to send Texas to College Station or Fayetteville regardless of any metrics.

That trumps all the other stuff you wrote.