Anyone but Trump but then anyone but Biden

[The Original Greaser Bob 2799]

17 minutes ago, G650 said:

Helo has to be the greatest troll of all time.

 

 

Edited June 14, 2023 by The Original Greaser Bob
delete

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Sydney outlined a lot of stuff I’ve never heard of or don’t know what they mean.

Dude, and I mean this sincerely, why don't you take a minute and educate yourself?  You don't have to be a policy wonk, but just take 10 minutes and google some of the stuff he mentioned.  Be a good citizen.  

[WhatTheBuck 28713]

1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Local Right Wing Radio routinely and without irony refer to Biden during their screeds as an old guy who is in bad physical shape and who says crazy things. I don't think that's inaccurate if you just change it to "Trump." But Fruit don't call in to radio shows, Fruit just listens.

The other theme is that he's a doddering figurehead, and an Unseen Cabal are calling all the shots. Hmm. In that case, a vote for Biden is a vote for that same Unseen Cabal whose work I like so far.

They have to go after him because of his age because that’s all they’ve got. They can’t go after him because of his record. 

[henrygandorf 29178]

46 minutes ago, Helobious said:

But it’s pretty easy to see that trump will wipe the floor with Biden in the 2024 election, and will probably win the popular vote outright even.

please please please point me in the direction of some sort of factual (or even fake) evidence that points to either of these being remotely true.  i'm not even picking on you (like i normally would), i'm genuinely curious to visit parts of the internet i was previously unaware of (4chan?  8chan?).

even if you don't have any actual evidence (you don't), please walk me through the logic of it (you can't).

even if arizona and georgia both go to trump (they won't), that's still not enough electoral votes to swing the election.

and honestly, human being to human being, it will be a long fucking time (definitely post-trump) until the republicans sniff the popular vote again.  i'm just telling you this in case it happens to comes up in conversation, just in your day-to-day life (i can't even imagine what that looks like). 

i am happy to entertain a (fictitious) argument that trump will "wipe the floor" with anyone, but i can't in good conscious allow an adult person to walk among us thinking trump (or any republican) has a shot at the popular vote.  it's the dumbest notion in the whole flat world. 

[Helobious 9481]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Dude, and I mean this sincerely, why don't you take a minute and educate yourself?  You don't have to be a policy wonk, but just take 10 minutes and google some of the stuff he mentioned.  Be a good citizen.  

Really CHIPS was the only thing I had no idea about. Seems like a good thing but it’s a  niche accomplishment. I don’t know that most people are going to care about increased computer chip production 

[Js1 85112]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Wait are pissed off Bernie Bros still a thing? I literally forgot all about them. Might be time to grow up.

Is there talk that Biden might cut Harris loose? That hadn't occurred to me, guess it might make some sense though.

No. It won’t happen. 

[hornmpa96 2598]

What’s really depressing is that the average voter is more like Helo instead of Sydney. 

[Js1 85112]

9 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

What’s really depressing is that the average voter is more like Helo instead of Sydney. 

Extremely arrogant and borderline drooling moron?

[washparkhorn 9935]

Suburban women need to sober up. 

[Helobious 9481]

11 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

What’s really depressing is that the average voter is more like Helo instead of Sydney. 

I’m a fuck of a lot smarter than the average person first of all. I knew trump was full of shit the second he opened his mouth in 2015 or 16, whenever he started campaigning. Never bought into any of that lip service or fear mongering. I just know how stupid and gullible most people are though, and how they eat up what he says. His win didn’t surprise me. His loss in 2020 was pretty stunning. But not as stunning once I looked at the ‘16 results and saw how he barely won all the swing states. 
 

I see those margins the same way now. Biden barely squeaked by in a lot of states, like trump in 2016. Have a hard time believing he’ll hold on to them.

[tokamak 6352]

5 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Suburban women need to sober up. 

"Look, I don't necessarily agree with everything he says or does, but I have to vote for Trump because woke public schools are trying to turn my kids trans."

There, wrote the article for the WSJ. I'm like ChatGPT for bullshit (actually that's just real ChatGPT, I guess).

[aggie08 21434]

22 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Really CHIPS was the only thing I had no idea about. Seems like a good thing but it’s a  niche accomplishment. I don’t know that most people are going to care about increased computer chip production 

So, what I’m gathering is that your assessment of a President consists of gas prices and does he talk real good. Not necessarily trying to insult you…I’m guessing that’s as deep as it goes for a lot of people.

Otherwise, what “flashy” accomplishments are you looking for from a President?

[C-Man 27058]

7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’m a fuck of a lot smarter than the average person first of all. I knew trump was full of shit the second he opened his mouth in 2015 or 16, whenever he started campaigning. Never bought into any of that lip service or fear mongering. I just know how stupid and gullible most people are though, and how they eat up what he says. His win didn’t surprise me. His loss in 2020 was pretty stunning. But not as stunning once I looked at the ‘16 results and saw how he barely won all the swing states. 
 

I see those margins the same way now. Biden barely squeaked by in a lot of states, like trump in 2016. Have a hard time believing he’ll hold on to them.

[fattyflattie 4636]

54 minutes ago, Helobious said:

So I’m supposed to lie and say I think Biden will win? I don’t. If it comes down to it I’ll begrudgingly vote for Biden like I did in 2020 because I think trump was/will be worse. As a Texas resident it’s not like it matters either way. I just don’t see a path to victory for him, he’s not pulling off Arizona & Georgia again that’s for sure. 
 

Sydney outlined a lot of stuff I’ve never heard of or don’t know what they mean. That’s not going to sway the average voter at all.

And he does come across as a senile with his stuttering issue and the way he meanders through speeches/interviews. Trump actually does the same thing but he doesn’t have the stuttering problem, so he seems less senile. Even if he might actually be at Biden’s mental capacity level.

Look man.  I'm not a fan of Trump, and generally prefer the R's.   But Trump will without a doubt get fucking rolled bigger than he did in '20.   Sydney's post mentioned some high points, but left off a metric fuck ton of things that Biden (and team) HAS accomplished.  You can agree/disagree with the importance/value of those things, but he has "accomplished" a shitload of things in his time.   He comes off like an 80 yo; some good days, some not as good.  I think it's going to get worse at 84-88 if reelected, but that's the choices we have.  

[softlynow 1783]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Tell me, how does one "be aggressive" moving along a sitting president who's announced he's running again? You have all these ideas, but you're a bit short on suggestions. But please, explain what moving along a sitting incumbent looks like exactly? Because I have no fucking idea, and to be honest, any possible idea probably looks like the infighting going on in the Republican party right now. Which is really working out well for them, you're right, the democrats who are already dysfunctional as hell should definitely add another roadblock to their chances. 

And while we're at at, looking at all your thin proclamations, why don't you suggest a few names you think should replace Biden at the top of the ticket? Please. Give us some names and analysis. But before you do, I'll go ahead and remove a few off the top:

Gavin Newsome - He'll be hated for being the Governor of California, but more importantly, Mayor of maybe the most liberal city in the country, San Francisco. Communism, homeless on the streets, drugs everywhere, reparations, it'll all get pinned to him and he won't get the votes.

Kamala Harris - widely reviled with an approval rating that makes Biden blush, and also from California

Mayor Pete - Gay man disliked by the progressive wing of his own party. America probably isn't ready for that yet, the black man broke us once. Also he's inexperienced. He cAusED TRaIn acCiDenTs iN oHIo. 

So who else do you have that justifies giving up the incumbency? Whitmer? Maybe. Klobuchar? No. The Dem bench is not only empty, the bench itself is actually rotted and collapsing. 

You think we should move on? Well, it's incumbent on YOU to make some suggestions and illustrate your proposal. So lets have it. 

 

The OP is dumb and this thread shouldn't exist, but . . .

I disagree that the bench is "rotted and collapsing." It's just lacking a top line star. The Dem party wasn't a freight train in 2008, it just had Barack Obama. The '05 horns were pretty darn good, but they don't beat SC with your average P5 starting QB standing in for Vince.

While you're right that we may not be ready for a gay candidate, the rest of your reasoning is the typical horserace nonsense that almost never actually matters beyond selling a few ads or subs and building the career of a bunch of "journalist" hacks. Fox News et al. will hammer away at any Dem candidate, and there will be something with pretty pictures of "communism" or violence by scary people that you can tie to any candidate. The test is whether they can catch fire in the primaries. The only way to test that is to have them without Biden. Folks get too wrapped up in the breathless headlines that always go away within a week. If that shit mattered all we'd remember of Trumps candidacy was the escalator announcement and his first speech about scary mexican rapists.

[gmr548 16517]

who?

Governor of PA, ran away with the 2022 election over the MAGA clown whose name I can’t spell. Too early to really say because that election was a layup but he’s worth keeping an eye on for 28.

[gmr548 16517]

will probably win the popular vote outright even.

Yeah I’ll take any bet you want to make on that.

[G650 14107]

14 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Not necessarily trying to insult you

I mean, you should be.

[fuggled 576]

46 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Really CHIPS was the only thing I had no idea about. Seems like a good thing but it’s a  niche accomplishment. I don’t know that most people are going to care about increased computer chip production 

Really, it's not a niche accomplishment and you should be pumped to give Biden credit for it.  Everything in our lives revolves around semiconductors.  Remember how dealerships didn't have any cars to sell during the pandemic?  That's because they couldn't get chips.  75%+ of chip manufacturing is in Asia now.  That's a threat to our security as much as if we relied on Asia for 75% of our food or oil.  The CHIPS act brings manufacturing back to the US, protects our supply chain and makes us less dependent on foreign countries.  When you run into those people who don't care about, feel confident about educating them on what a big deal it is.

[Helobious 9481]

12 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah I’ll take any bet you want to make on that.

I’m walking that one back bigly after actually  looking at 2020 numbers. I’m thinking he repeats a 2016 scenario

[babysdaddy 2718]

I think Trump isn't going to be able to run/isn't going to get the nomination.  Either by the current indictment or the one coming from Georgia.  So I'm expecting to get Younkin or Kemp to jump in from the R side and one of those two, Desantis, or Tim Scott will be the R nominee.  

And I think Newsome is basically starting to run without announcing in case something happens to Biden, either physically or if there is something to the alleged recordings of him and Hunter taking bribes.  A good Dem candidate that Sydney didn't mention would be Polis from Colorado.

[fuggled 576]

@Helobious Two other Biden accomplishments that I didn't see mentioned but should register with you and everyday Americans are 1) the PACT act protecting veterans impacted by burn pits and 2) the part of the Inflation Reduction Act that capped insulin and out-of-pocket prescription codes for seniors on Medicare.  Both will help a lot of people and are easy to understand.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

So I’m supposed to lie and say I think Biden will win? I don’t. If it comes down to it I’ll begrudgingly vote for Biden like I did in 2020 because I think trump was/will be worse. As a Texas resident it’s not like it matters either way. I just don’t see a path to victory for him, he’s not pulling off Arizona & Georgia again that’s for sure. 
 

Sydney outlined a lot of stuff I’ve never heard of or don’t know what they mean. That’s not going to sway the average voter at all.

And he does come across as a senile with his stuttering issue and the way he meanders through speeches/interviews. Trump actually does the same thing but he doesn’t have the stuttering problem, so he seems less senile. Even if he might actually be at Biden’s mental capacity level.

 

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Really CHIPS was the only thing I had no idea about. Seems like a good thing but it’s a  niche accomplishment. I don’t know that most people are going to care about increased computer chip production 

Do you really think it's a good idea to contradict yourself entirely, and I mean 100% completely contradict yourself, within about half a dozen posts and 20 minutes from each other? I believe some people might just straight up call that Lying. 

[SydneyCarton 47884]

10 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I think Trump isn't going to be able to run/isn't going to get the nomination.  Either by the current indictment or the one coming from Georgia.  So I'm expecting to get Younkin or Kemp to jump in from the R side and one of those two, Desantis, or Tim Scott will be the R nominee.  

And I think Newsome is basically starting to run without announcing in case something happens to Biden, either physically or if there is something to the alleged recordings of him and Hunter taking bribes.  A good Dem candidate that Sydney didn't mention would be Polis from Colorado.

I'm not sure I've ever heard of this person and I post pretty regularly on this board. So that immediately isn't exactly blowing my skirt up. That being said, you'd be hard pressed he's got a better shot at winning than Biden in 2024. 

[henrygandorf 29178]

3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’m walking that one back bigly after actually  looking at 2020 numbers. I’m thinking he repeats a 2016 scenario

trump lost by 3mm votes in 2016 against one of the most unpopular candidates in american presidential election history.  he lost by 7mm votes in 2020 against a middle-of-the-road, boring old white guy who's been in politics for 50 years.  a guy who (if this board is any indication) was most dem voters 6th or 7th choice.

trump is supremely unpopular and as every day passes, is seen as an existential threat to democracy, and that's not going away any time soon.  people who don't care about biden or think he's old (he is) or ineffectual (he isn't) will come out to the polls just to keep trump out of office.

gen-z hates trump and republicans in general.  old people tend to lean towards the right and watch fox news all day.  now ask yourself, how are the demographics trending from 2020->2024?  think of all the college kids who have turned 18 and all the almost-deads who are now dead from covid or other natural causes.

if i was to handicap that race, i would put the spread around 8.5-9.5mm votes.  the popular vote will be a bloodbath. 

you might not see a path for biden (what an odd thing to say for a guy who literally just won the last election), but the path for trump relies on a very specific electoral map, a lot of luck, a lot of cheating (voter suppression, blowing up polling places, rigging machines), and probably yet another manufactured last minute hail-mary investigation scandal right before the election.

what has happened between 2020 and 2024 that makes you think trump has gained votes?  or at least gained votes in the 3-4 states he'll need to flip to win?  the biggest thing to happen (outside of the indictment) is overturning roe, and that will only hurt him, as it hurt the gop in 2022.

you seemed very confident in your first post, i would just love to learn where that's coming from.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

trump lost by 3mm votes in 2016 against one of the most unpopular candidates in american presidential election history.  he lost by 7mm votes in 2020 against a middle-of-the-road, boring old white guy who's been in politics for 50 years.  a guy who (if this board is any indication) was most dem voters 6th or 7th choice.

trump is supremely unpopular and as every day passes, is seen as an existential threat to democracy, and that's not going away any time soon.  people who don't care about biden or think he's old (he is) or ineffectual (he isn't) will come out to the polls just to keep trump out of office.

gen-z hates trump and republicans in general.  old people tend to lean towards the right and watch fox news all day.  now ask yourself, how are the demographics trending from 2020->2024?  think of all the college kids who have turned 18 and all the almost-deads who are now dead from covid or other natural causes.

if i was to handicap that race, i would put the spread around 8.5-9.5mm votes.  the popular vote will be a bloodbath. 

you might not see a path for biden (what an odd thing to say for a guy who literally just won the last election), but the path for trump relies on a very specific electoral map, a lot of luck, a lot of cheating (voter suppression, blowing up polling places, rigging machines), and probably yet another manufactured last minute hail-mary investigation scandal right before the election.

what has happened between 2020 and 2024 that makes you think trump has gained votes?  or at least gained votes in the 3-4 states he'll need to flip to win?  the biggest thing to happen (outside of the indictment) is overturning roe, and that will only hurt him, as it hurt the gop in 2022.

you seemed very confident in your first post, i would just love to learn where that's coming from.

Tell me that you're completely unfamiliar with Helobious as a poster, without telling me, etc. 

For starters, he'd slay you at the bar chasing ladies with his $20 amazon chain. Just ask him. 

[Helobious 9481]

10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Do you really think it's a good idea to contradict yourself entirely, and I mean 100% completely contradict yourself, within about half a dozen posts and 20 minutes from each other? I believe some people might just straight up call that Lying. 

I know what inflation is and what jobs are. I didn’t know what Biden’s impact on all that was. CHIPS was the only thing I had no idea on and never heard of. I worded it poorly. 
 

[henrygandorf 29178]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Tell me that you're completely unfamiliar with Helobious as a poster, without telling me, etc. 

i'm only familiar with his constant pants-dropping on the baseball board and near flawless record of incorrect predictions.

guess i'm just curious by nature.

[RDCanecutter 26282]

I admit that I do not know why people move to Arizona when God clearly designed it to be a wasteland, so who knows what that type of voter would do.

But in Georgia, Trump miraculously figured out how to piss off local Republicans even more than he does Democrats: by crossing that Deep Southern taboo against obeying when an outsider tells you what to do.

[royiv 9164]

I don't know why anyone would think AZ is going to go Trump. Qari Lake lost the governor's race and Sinema will likely lose her Senate seat to Gallego. Maricopa County continues to shift blue and Pima County has always been a safe blue county. As those two counties go, the rest of statewide races go in Arizona.

[G650 14107]

8 minutes ago, Helobious said:

what jobs are

Jobs are as good as they have ever been in history.

[Helobious 9481]

22 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

trump lost by 3mm votes in 2016 against one of the most unpopular candidates in american presidential election history.  he lost by 7mm votes in 2020 against a middle-of-the-road, boring old white guy who's been in politics for 50 years.  a guy who (if this board is any indication) was most dem voters 6th or 7th choice.

trump is supremely unpopular and as every day passes, is seen as an existential threat to democracy, and that's not going away any time soon.  people who don't care about biden or think he's old (he is) or ineffectual (he isn't) will come out to the polls just to keep trump out of office.

gen-z hates trump and republicans in general.  old people tend to lean towards the right and watch fox news all day.  now ask yourself, how are the demographics trending from 2020->2024?  think of all the college kids who have turned 18 and all the almost-deads who are now dead from covid or other natural causes.

if i was to handicap that race, i would put the spread around 8.5-9.5mm votes.  the popular vote will be a bloodbath. 

you might not see a path for biden (what an odd thing to say for a guy who literally just won the last election), but the path for trump relies on a very specific electoral map, a lot of luck, a lot of cheating (voter suppression, blowing up polling places, rigging machines), and probably yet another manufactured last minute hail-mary investigation scandal right before the election.

what has happened between 2020 and 2024 that makes you think trump has gained votes?  or at least gained votes in the 3-4 states he'll need to flip to win?  the biggest thing to happen (outside of the indictment) is overturning roe, and that will only hurt him, as it hurt the gop in 2022.

you seemed very confident in your first post, i would just love to learn where that's coming from.

I’ll admit, I just “feel” like trump would win. I hadn’t really looked into any numbers until now. Sounds like Biden has maybe done more than I thought. But all of Biden’s accomplishments are irrelevant to my prediction. Maybe 2% of voters has any idea about any of that. 
 

Some of the data and statistics people have pointed out do make me want to second-guess though. Is Arizona as red as I think it is? Florida and Texas have gone off the deep-end red, but are they both not irrelevant to 2024? Trump won them both in 2020 and still lost. I can’t fathom Georgia going blue again but I couldn’t fathom it the first time either. I definitely have new stuff to think about.

[royiv 9164]

5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ll admit, I just “feel” like trump would win. I hadn’t really looked into any numbers until now. Sounds like Biden has maybe done more than I thought. But all of Biden’s accomplishments are irrelevant to my prediction. Maybe 2% of voters has any idea about any of that. 
 

Some of the data and statistics people have pointed out do make me want to second-guess though. Is Arizona as red as I think it is? Florida and Texas have gone off the deep-end red, but are they both not irrelevant to 2024? Trump won them both in 2020 and still lost. I can’t fathom Georgia going blue again but I couldn’t fathom it the first time either. I definitely have new stuff to think about.

Arizona is a pretty solidly blue state these days. Democrat governor, one Democrat Senator and the other Senator was elected as a Democrat and switched to independent. She will lose her seat to Ruben Gallego, a wildly popular Democrat. 

Edited June 14, 2023 by royiv
Typo

[Foosters 17734]

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

And while we're at at, looking at all your thin proclamations, why don't you suggest a few names you think should replace Biden at the top of the ticket? Please. Give us some names and analysis. But before you do, I'll go ahead and remove a few off the top:

Gavin Newsome - He'll be hated for being the Governor of California, but more importantly, Mayor of maybe the most liberal city in the country, San Francisco. Communism, homeless on the streets, drugs everywhere, reparations, it'll all get pinned to him and he won't get the votes.

Kamala Harris - widely reviled with an approval rating that makes Biden blush, and also from California

Mayor Pete - Gay man disliked by the progressive wing of his own party. America probably isn't ready for that yet, the black man broke us once. Also he's inexperienced. He cAusED TRaIn acCiDenTs iN oHIo. 
 

I agree with a lot of what you said, and do not think the Dems need to move on to Biden "just cuz," but this reveals a lot about both the electorate and media's penchant for horse-race journalism.

Harris - Hated bc. . . she's a woman from CA? She's Black? She's "elite?"  

Pete - Hated bc  . . . he's gay? 

Newsom - Governor of CA?

The double standard is staggering. Newsom may not be electable bc CA has issues? Does anyone look at the issues that Florida is facing when talking about DeSantis?  One candidate gets judged based on policy, legislative achievements, and results, while the other is judged on . . . some vague notion of "electability?" How about someone like Nikki Haley? She gets a pass for having South Carolina in the bottom 10 of most categories? But that's not a liability compared to Newsom's stewardship of CA? Trump led an insurrection and is facing dozens of criminal charges but between that and someone who was a relatively successful mayor of a city 20 years ago, the latter is more troubling to the American Electorate?

Mayor Pete gets blamed for a train derailment that any serious person will tell you he had nothing to do with, but "neutral" media outlets will "just ask questions" about whether the fact that he's getting blamed for this hurts his chances. Annnnd the narrative is set.

I understand that the above are not your positions, you're just calling it how you see it, but fuck man, something needs to change with how we do things here, otherwise the only "electable" Dems on a national level are going to be white men from good schools (not too good please!), with backgrounds in law or finance, former eagle scouts, never having advocated for tax increases or progressive policies at any point in their career, and with a good-looking wife and 2.5 kids by their side.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

14 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ll admit, I just “feel” like trump would win. I hadn’t really looked into any numbers until now. Sounds like Biden has maybe done more than I thought. But all of Biden’s accomplishments are irrelevant to my prediction. Maybe 2% of voters has any idea about any of that. 
 

Some of the data and statistics people have pointed out do make me want to second-guess though. Is Arizona as red as I think it is? Florida and Texas have gone off the deep-end red, but are they both not irrelevant to 2024? Trump won them both in 2020 and still lost. I can’t fathom Georgia going blue again but I couldn’t fathom it the first time either. I definitely have new stuff to think about.

I'm still not convinced that Synema doesn't lose and siphon off enough votes from Gallego so that a R wins, probably Kari Lake, that fucking cunt. She barely fucking lost her gubernatorial bid, and we know she'll turn out the crazies. 

['stache 21774]

Cool story bro. Uncle Joe is killing it, and will get the nomination easy, and beat dotard easy (yes I fluctuate between optimism and the ledge). As far as I can tell, the only "crime" within this family is having big swinging donkey dicks. 

[henrygandorf 29178]

18 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ll admit, I just “feel” like trump would win. I hadn’t really looked into any numbers until now. Sounds like Biden has maybe done more than I thought. But all of Biden’s accomplishments are irrelevant to my prediction. Maybe 2% of voters has any idea about any of that. 
 

Some of the data and statistics people have pointed out do make me want to second-guess though. Is Arizona as red as I think it is? Florida and Texas have gone off the deep-end red, but are they both not irrelevant to 2024? Trump won them both in 2020 and still lost. I can’t fathom Georgia going blue again but I couldn’t fathom it the first time either. I definitely have new stuff to think about.

just to continue this as a "good-faith" conversation, there were some very important local races in 2022.  governors, secretary of states, election boards, supreme courts, state lege, etc.  for those who are/were scared of local politicians in key states "stealing" the election for the party they support, these races were very important if trump tried any shit like he did in 2020.

these races all went to dems and those states are largely protected.

ohio, florida, texas are all red states and it doesn't matter.  pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina, arizona, georgia, nevada.  trump has to win almost all of these.  biden has to win 3-4.

gen-z had a lot of fun in 2020 and 2022.  do the math.

 

[henrygandorf 29178]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm still not convinced that Synema doesn't lose and siphon off enough votes from Gallego so that a R wins, probably Kari Lake, that fucking cunt. She barely fucking lost her gubernatorial bid, and we know she'll turn out the crazies. 

eh, conventional wisdom would suggest it, because she was a "democrat" recently.  but they fucking hate her there.

[royiv 9164]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm still not convinced that Synema doesn't lose and siphon off enough votes from Gallego so that a R wins, probably Kari Lake, that fucking cunt. She barely fucking lost her gubernatorial bid, and we know she'll turn out the crazies. 

I think you underestimate just how unpopular Sinema is. She's not going to get many D votes. She will siphon more R votes than D votes and that's not good for Lake if she decides to run. I think a lot of R voters will look at Lake and realize that she's too crazy and pull the lever for Sinema simply because she doesn't have the D next her name. Gallego is wildly popular and will hold the D votes solidly.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

19 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I agree with a lot of what you said, and do not think the Dems need to move on to Biden "just cuz," but this reveals a lot about both the electorate and media's penchant for horse-race journalism.

Harris - Hated bc. . . she's a woman from CA? She's Black? She's "elite?"  

Pete - Hated bc  . . . he's gay? 

Newsom - Governor of CA?

The double standard is staggering. Newsom may not be electable bc CA has issues? Does anyone look at the issues that Florida is facing when talking about DeSantis?  One candidate gets judged based on policy, legislative achievements, and results, while the other is judged on . . . some vague notion of "electability?" How about someone like Nikki Haley? She gets a pass for having South Carolina in the bottom 10 of most categories? But that's not a liability compared to Newsom's stewardship of CA? Trump led an insurrection and is facing dozens of criminal charges but between that and someone who was a relatively successful mayor of a city 20 years ago, the latter is more troubling to the American Electorate?

Mayor Pete gets blamed for a train derailment that any serious person will tell you he had nothing to do with, but "neutral" media outlets will "just ask questions" about whether the fact that he's getting blamed for this hurts his chances. Annnnd the narrative is set.

I understand that the above are not your positions, you're just calling it how you see it, but fuck man, something needs to change with how we do things here, otherwise the only "electable" Dems on a national level are going to be white men from good schools (not too good please!), with backgrounds in law or finance, former eagle scouts, never having advocated for tax increases or progressive policies at any point in their career, and with a good-looking wife and 2.5 kids by their side.

You think I don't disagree? Listen, bring back the Fairness Doctrine. Keep fining the shitty news outlets a billion dollars until they stop being fucking worthless. The fact of the matter, 40-45% of the American public reliably tunes into a source of information that absolutely doesn't give a shit about legislative achievements. You think all those red states who take more federal funding than they get (welfare) are concerned with achievements? No, they're whining about the welfare they already are taking, bitching about communist left policies, and focusing on fucking culture wars. Get back to me when Fox News or Newsmax are having a debate about the economy and legislative achievements instead of focusing on trans boogeymen and drag shows, or god forbid books in libraries. 

Harris is hated because she consistently polls like hot trash. Democrats dont even like her. Throw in Black and Female and maybe California, and yeah, shockingly these are things that immediately slam the fucking door on her electability with a huge segment of America. Democrats dont even particularly like her.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/

Pete - Well, we know progressives don't like him. Like at all. I'm sure you saw plenty of that in the last election cycle. Additionally, yes, he's gay and guess what that isn't going to fly with a segment of Americans, even independents. And I say that as someone who wishes I could elect Pete as my president for 20 fucking years. He's smart, he's thoughtful, he actually has ideas to solve problems we have...and progressives hate him. Republicans hate him. Homophones hate him. 

Newsome - I'm not even wasting time going into this, you understand the narrative that is out there for him, and you understand why it would be a detriment. 

Because you know what, outside of Newsome, we saw exactly what happened in the last democratic primary. 2 of those three got fucking steamrolled. And some version of the narratives I've laid out killed their asses, and guess what, nothing has changed. 

But you're goddamn right something needs to change. This country is on a fucking rocket train into the fucking shitter, and I lie awake at night worrying about what my son is going to live in, or worse, the influences that he's going to be bombarded with or the books he'll be allowed to read in school: because it won't be the history you or I learned growing up. But here we are, with everything on the line, tell me:

Considering you know everything I've typed out is true, and that's how things currently work, do you throw out the incumbency advantage or do you fucking buy a lottery ticket?  
 

Edited June 14, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[SydneyCarton 47884]

11 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

eh, conventional wisdom would suggest it, because she was a "democrat" recently.  but they fucking hate her there.

 

6 minutes ago, royiv said:

I think you underestimate just how unpopular Sinema is. She's not going to get many D votes. She will siphon more R votes than D votes and that's not good for Lake if she decides to run. I think a lot of R voters will look at Lake and realize that she's too crazy and pull the lever for Sinema simply because she doesn't have the D next her name. Gallego is wildly popular and will hold the D votes solidly.

It has nothing to do with how unpopular she is...she barely beat Martha McSally. 2.5 points. She wasn't NEARLY as unpopular then as she is now, so I don't think the "Well she was unpopular and she won anyway" is as an argument. Kari Lake will outdraw McSally. I guess it comes down to, I'm not convinced she'll draw more votes from Lake than from Gallego. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

14 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

just to continue this as a "good-faith" conversation, there were some very important local races in 2022.  governors, secretary of states, election boards, supreme courts, state lege, etc.  for those who are/were scared of local politicians in key states "stealing" the election for the party they support, these races were very important if trump tried any shit like he did in 2020.

these races all went to dems and those states are largely protected.

ohio, florida, texas are all red states and it doesn't matter.  pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina, arizona, georgia, nevada.  trump has to win almost all of these.  biden has to win 3-4.

gen-z had a lot of fun in 2020 and 2022.  do the math.

 

It will be interesting to see the covid effect in the swing states. Starting in 2021 anyone who isn't/wasn't vaxed is far more likely to skew R. 5-10K votes between excess covid deaths and GenZ coming of age could make a huge difference in those swing states.

[Biff Tannen 45499]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Homophones hate him. 

I knew it!  They just don't like new candidates.

[Foosters 17734]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You think I don't disagree? Listen, bring back the Fairness Doctrine. Keep fining the shitty news outlets a billion dollars until they stop being fucking worthless. The fact of the matter, 40-45% of the American public reliably tunes into a source of information that absolutely doesn't give a shit about legislative achievements. You think all those red states who take more federal funding than they get (welfare) are concerned with achievements? No, they're whining about the welfare they already are taking, bitching about communist left policies, and focusing on fucking culture wars. Get back to me when Fox News or Newsmax are having a debate about the economy and legislative achievements instead of focusing on trans boogeymen and drag shows, or god forbid books in libraries. 

Harris is hated because she consistently polls like hot trash. Democrats dont even like her. Throw in Black and Female and maybe California, and yeah, shockingly these are things that immediately slam the fucking door on her electability with a huge segment of America. Democrats dont even particularly like her.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/

Pete - Well, we know progressives don't like him. Like at all. I'm sure you saw plenty of that in the last election cycle. Additionally, yes, he's guy and guess what that isn't going to fly with a segment of Americans, even independents. And I say that as someone who wishes I could elect Pete as my president for 20 fucking years. He's smart, he's thoughtful, he actually has ideas to solve problems we have...and progressives hate him. Republicans hate him. Homophones hate him. 

Newsome - I'm not even wasting time going into this, you understand the narrative that is out there for him, and you understand why it would be a detriment. 

Because you know what, outside of Newsome, we saw exactly what happened in the last democratic primary. 2 of those three got fucking steamrolled. And some version of the narratives I've laid out killed their asses, and guess what, nothing has changed. 

But you're goddamn right something needs to change. This country is on a fucking rocket train into the fucking shitter, and I lie awake at night worrying about what my son is going to live in, or worse, the influences that he's going to be bombarded with or the books he'll be allowed to read in school: because it won't be the history you or I learned growing up. But here we are, with everything on the line, tell me:

Considering you know everything I've typed out is true, and that's how things currently work, do you throw out the incumbency advantage or do you fucking buy a lottery ticket?  
 

I've already said that I agree with pretty much everything you've said, and that the Dems should not move on from Biden. You have presented an accurate snapshot of the state of potential Dem candidates. I'm simply pointing out the idiocy and mind-numbing discourse that gets us here. I know you already know that, I just used your post as a jumping off point.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I've already said that I agree with pretty much everything you've said, and that the Dems should not move on from Biden. You have presented an accurate snapshot of the state of potential Dem candidates. I'm simply pointing out the idiocy and mind-numbing discourse that gets us here. I know you already know that, I just used your post as a jumping off point.

I know you were, you weren't unclear in your post. But when you appeal to me on how things have to change, with a slight implication that maybe I'm being unreasonable or too much of a negative nancy, I feel the need to spell it out. So we're in a viscous cycle of hatred for the stupidity of America and cable news outlets. 

[royiv 9164]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

It has nothing to do with how unpopular she is...she barely beat Martha McSally. 2.5 points. She wasn't NEARLY as unpopular then as she is now, so I don't think the "Well she was unpopular and she won anyway" is as an argument. Kari Lake will outdraw McSally. I guess it comes down to, I'm not convinced she'll draw more votes from Lake than from Gallego. 

Again, you're not taking into account how her popularity has decreased over the past five years. In 2018, her popularity was at its peak. Since then, her antics have made her very, very unpopular with D voters. I was a solid Sinema donor and voter when she was my congresswoman. I voted for her and donated heavily to her Senate campaign. She is now more popular with R voters than she is with D voters. I no longer live in AZ, but have been donating to Gallego ever since he announced. Every one of my friends that is still in AZ feels the same way. She will siphon more R votes than D votes. Book it.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19093]

3 hours ago, Helobious said:

I don’t follow politics much. I know I’d never vote for trump. He’s a shitbag and just about as old & senile as Biden. But it’s pretty easy to see that trump will wipe the floor with Biden in the 2024 election, and will probably win the popular vote outright even. People say Biden has been very effectual… what exactly has he done? The only thing most people know him for is massively failing with the student debt relief he promised.

Oh look.  Another Helobious prediction.

[SydneyCarton 47884]

7 minutes ago, royiv said:

Again, you're not taking into account how her popularity has decreased over the past five years. In 2018, her popularity was at its peak. Since then, her antics have made her very, very unpopular with D voters. I was a solid Sinema donor and voter when she was my congresswoman. I voted for her and donated heavily to her Senate campaign. She is now more popular with R voters than she is with D voters. I no longer live in AZ, but have been donating to Gallego ever since he announced. Every one of my friends that is still in AZ feels the same way. She will siphon more R votes than D votes. Book it.

I’m not taking into account her popularity loss over the last 5 years despite citing it I. The 2nd or 3rd sentence of the post you quoted? 
 

As I posted, the fact that she barely beat a shitty R to get elected last time, at the peak of her popularity, versus the Kari lake love now sort of makes me point. As I said, I’m simply not convinced she will pull more from Rs then Ds. You aren’t really making a compelling argument to the contrary, either. 

[Brian Fantana 6668]

58 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ll admit, I just “feel” like trump would win. I hadn’t really looked into any numbers until now. Sounds like Biden has maybe done more than I thought. But all of Biden’s accomplishments are irrelevant to my prediction. Maybe 2% of voters has any idea about any of that. 
 

Some of the data and statistics people have pointed out do make me want to second-guess though. Is Arizona as red as I think it is? Florida and Texas have gone off the deep-end red, but are they both not irrelevant to 2024? Trump won them both in 2020 and still lost. I can’t fathom Georgia going blue again but I couldn’t fathom it the first time either. I definitely have new stuff to think about.

No Republican has won the popular vote in almost 20 years, what do you think has changed to buck that trend?

[royiv 9164]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not taking into account her popularity loss over the last 5 years despite citing it I. The 2nd or 3rd sentence of the post you quoted? 
 

As I posted, the fact that she barely beat a shitty R to get elected last time, at the peak of her popularity, versus the Kari lake love now sort of makes me point. As I said, I’m simply not convinced she will pull more from Rs then Ds. You aren’t really making a compelling argument to the contrary, either. 

Kari Lake just lost a statewide race to a D that's not exactly charismatic. Katie Hobbs is about as milquetoast (or milk toast if you're GQP) as they come and won by pretty much just ignoring Lake. No debates, etc. Lake does not appeal to the center right voter in AZ. Those center right voters will pull the lever for Sinema. Sinema has a right of center voting record to run on and, despite her shortcomings, isn't spouting GQP nonsense and costing taxpayers tons of money with frivolous lawsuits. That's going to appeal to a chunk of R voters. Of course, it's all hypothetical since Lake hasn't even declared and appears to be going for a VP position on Trump's ticket.