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Parliament

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Sbbruin

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Between Iran’s repressive human rights abuses, including murdering its people, and its exporting of weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, it’s time we really step up are subversive attacks against this despotic regime.  Cyber attacks, CIA assassinations, maybe a bombing or two of strategic nuclear sites.  WTF they gon do ‘bout it?

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 28657

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1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Between Iran’s repressive human rights abuses, including murdering its people, and its exporting of weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, it’s time we really step up are subversive attacks against this despotic regime.  Cyber attacks, CIA assassinations, maybe a bombing or two of strategic nuclear sites.  WTF they gon do ‘bout it?

We should be smuggling weapons to the Kurds and other ethnic minorities that make up over 50% of Iran's population.

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atomheartbevo

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https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/01/iran-to-use-facial-recognition-to-identify-women-without-hijabs/

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After Iranian lawmakers suggested last year that face recognition should be used to police hijab law, the head of an Iranian government agency that enforces morality law said in a September interview that the technology would be used “to identify inappropriate and unusual movements,” including “failure to observe hijab laws.” Individuals could be identified by checking faces against a national identity database to levy fines and make arrests, he said.

Two weeks later, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman named Jina Mahsa Amini died after being taken into custody by Iran’s morality police for not wearing a hijab tightly enough. Her death sparked historic protests against women's dress rules, resulting in an estimated 19,000 arrests and more than 500 deaths. Shajarizadeh and others monitoring the ongoing outcry have noticed that some people involved in the protests are confronted by police days after an alleged incident—including women cited for not wearing a hijab. “Many people haven't been arrested in the streets,” she says. “They were arrested at their homes one or two days later.”

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Although there are other ways women could have been identified, Shajarizadeh and others fear that the pattern indicates face recognition is already in use—perhaps the first known instance of a government using face recognition to impose dress law on women based on religious belief.

Mahsa Alimardani, who researches freedom of expression in Iran at the University of Oxford, has recently heard reports of women in Iran receiving citations in the mail for hijab law violations despite not having had an interaction with a law enforcement officer. Iran’s government has spent years building a digital surveillance apparatus, Alimardani says. The country’s national identity database, built in 2015, includes biometric data like face scans and is used for national ID cards and to identify people considered dissidents by authorities.

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Multiple arms of the Iranian government have access to face recognition technology. Iranian traffic officials started using it in 2020 to issue fines and send women warnings by SMS text about wearing a hijab when inside a vehicle. Mousa Ghazanfarabadi, the head of the country’s parliamentary legal and judicial committee, spoke last year in support of “exclusion from social services and financial fines'' for hijab violations. “The use of face recording cameras can systematically implement this task and reduce the presence of the police, as a result of which there will be no more clashes between the police and citizens,” he told Iranian news outlet Enghelabe Eslami.

Some face recognition in use in Iran today comes from Chinese camera and artificial intelligence company Tiandy. Its dealings in Iran were featured in a December 2021 report from IPVM, a company that tracks the surveillance and security industry.

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Tiandy is one of the largest security camera manufacturers in the world, but its sales are largely within China, report author Charles Rollet says, and the company appeared to jump at the opportunity to expand into Iran. IPVM found that the Tiandy Iran website at one time listed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, police, and a government prison labor organization as customers—agencies Rollet describes as “the kind of places that raise red flags from a sanctions or human rights perspective.”

In December, the US Department of Commerce placed sanctions on Tiandy, citing its role in the repression of Uyghur Muslims in China and the provision of technology originating in the US to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The company previously used components from Intel, but the US chipmaker told NBC last month that it had ceased working with the Chinese company. Tiandy did not respond to a request for comment.

 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4959

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1 minute ago, Bevo said:

No, but I do believe that Russia did. All of Europe and Canada and the US vs. Russia and Iran.

Yes agree Russia started it, but it’s currently contained to Ukraine. If Iran/Israel start going at it all gloves are off and this may be the flashpoint for a wider far reaching conflict.

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SL Xpress

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

Yes agree Russia started it, but it’s currently contained to Ukraine. If Iran/Israel start going at it all gloves are off and this may be the flashpoint for a wider far reaching conflict.

 

When you say Iran and Israel may start going at it, what does that mean?

Prior to this attack there had already been an escalation of violence among the Israelis and Palestinians. The Iranian proxy groups there might escalate, but it won't be to an extent that will deter or lead to World War III any more than it has previously. There's not going to be direct confrontation with ground troops. Israel just demonstrated in about as blatant a way as possible that they can enter Iranian air space with impunity. Can Iran do the same? We know the answer to that. 

There's not a lot more that can be done "if the gloves are off." The main thing preventing Israel from being more aggressive with their attacks on Iran through the air is the US holding them back. Not anything Iran can do. 

I don't see this leading to a wider, more far reaching conflict. It would if the Middle East was more united in their goals. And while Muslims can agree they'd like to see Israel removed from the planet, they'd like to see a Pan Arabic/Pan Islamic identity with a Caliph in charge, the differences in how to go about it, the exact identity of what it should be, or most importantly, who should be the person who leads it, is the source of a massive amount of dissension and conflict that isn't going away. This attack will do very little to galvanize support for Iran beyond maybe some public reprimands for Israel for so blatantly disregarding another sovereign country's air space. To which Israel will shrug their collective shoulders and say, "Stop me."

Frankly, as this thread shows, Iran has its own massive issues internally. They're simply not in a great situation to escalate anything with Israel in a way that changes the game materially. 

I do see things getting way way worse in the West Bank and Gaza. But that's going to happen regardless of the strikes on Iran. I guess it motivates Iran even more to support their proxies more aggressively, but if the motivation is already pegged to the max, how much farther can it go? I guess their internal government entities collectively move the needle to 11? 

If anything, what this does is give people an excuse to blame Israel's strike on Iran for events that were going to transpire in the West Bank and Gaza regardless. That's my take, anyway. 

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The Dog

The Dog 43599

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19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Lots of chatter about Azerbaijan being involved as well, after a deadly attack on their embassy in Tehran, including airbases there maybe being used by Israeli planes. Gonna take time to sort shit out.

Yeah that's why I said "Azerbaijan and Israel" earlier because they are both allies of Turkey. 

It's complicated.

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TKthunder2

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

 

When you say Iran and Israel may start going at it, what does that mean?

Prior to this attack there had already been an escalation of violence among the Israelis and Palestinians. The Iranian proxy groups there might escalate, but it won't be to an extent that will deter or lead to World War III any more than it has previously. There's not going to be direct confrontation with ground troops. Israel just demonstrated in about as blatant a way as possible that they can enter Iranian air space with impunity. Can Iran do the same? We know the answer to that. 

There's not a lot more that can be done "if the gloves are off." The main thing preventing Israel from being more aggressive with their attacks on Iran through the air is the US holding them back. Not anything Iran can do. 

I don't see this leading to a wider, more far reaching conflict. It would if the Middle East was more united in their goals. And while Muslims can agree they'd like to see Israel removed from the planet, they'd like to see a Pan Arabic/Pan Islamic identity with a Caliph in charge, the differences in how to go about it, the exact identity of what it should be, or most importantly, who should be the person who leads it, is the source of a massive amount of dissension and conflict that isn't going away. This attack will do very little to galvanize support for Iran beyond maybe some public reprimands for Israel for so blatantly disregarding another sovereign country's air space. To which Israel will shrug their collective shoulders and say, "Stop me."

Frankly, as this thread shows, Iran has its own massive issues internally. They're simply not in a great situation to escalate anything with Israel in a way that changes the game materially. 

I do see things getting way way worse in the West Bank and Gaza. But that's going to happen regardless of the strikes on Iran. I guess it motivates Iran even more to support their proxies more aggressively, but if the motivation is already pegged to the max, how much farther can it go? I guess their internal government entities collectively move the needle to 11? 

If anything, what this does is give people an excuse to blame Israel's strike on Iran for events that were going to transpire in the West Bank and Gaza regardless. That's my take, anyway. 

Proxy war via Palestinians may now be returned in force with a proxy war in Iran from their own citizens with Israel finally supplying the weapon via intermediaries. If Israel is this bold Iran will respond even more brazenly. US has been holding Israel back but if Iran slips one through the Iron Dome then Israel and Iran may go into a full on war of hurling drones and missiles at each other which then could include multiple players in the region like Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.

You’re right that this could just be another escalation in the on going back and forth but this seems far more brazen to me which is why I honestly believe this could be the start of something bigger.

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SL Xpress

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9 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

US has been holding Israel back but if Iran slips one through the Iron Dome then Israel and Iran may go into a full on war of hurling drones and missiles at each other which then could include multiple players in the region like Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.

You’re right that this could just be another escalation in the on going back and forth but this seems far more brazen to me which is why I honestly believe this could be the start of something bigger.

 

I do not understand how Turkiye and Saudi Arabia can get too involved. Turkiye is fighting Iranian proxies in Syria. Saudi is fighting Iranian proxies in Yemen. Both of them would love to see Israel not exist any more, but not enough to help Iran. That's the simple explanation. There's way more complexity than that, especially given that Saudi has Mecca and Medina, but is criticized for being a US/western toadie. Saudi is one of the worst human rights violators in the world, and one of the ways they violate human rights is by consistently executing religious leaders critical of the regime. Often after torture. This has gone on for years. Turkiye under Erodogan is more aligned with the Muslim world than the western, but as he's shown over and over again, he's not exactly ready to chop off his dealings with the West. He likes his cake and he likes to eat it, too, as much as possible. 

Azerbaijan's biggest supporter is Turkiye, but they're not going to invade Iran on Azerbaijan's behalf. Russia tries to be supportive of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, but to put it in Animal Farm terms, their support for Armenia is a little equaler. And it's not like they're in a great position to do anything to support anyone right now. 

The Middle East is always a cauldron. No doubt about that. But when the Ottoman Empire broke up the West's biggest goal among the powers in the region was to make sure they were as divided as possible with internal conflicts preventing them from uniting again, with no one powerful enough to unify the rest. Whatever else the West has gotten wrong in the Middle East - and it's plenty, without any doubt - that part is working to a T. 

I just don't see anyone suddenly getting behind Iran after these attacks to do anything to escalate the situation. There's certainly some mixed feelings about the attack. No one in the region wants to embolden the Israelis regarding flying into sovereign air space, even if its Iran. But Iran has put themselves in a position where no one is on their side enough to want to escalate things, either. Sometimes you have to figure out what hill you want to die on, and Iran simply isn't it for anyone else in the region. Honestly, I bet Israel could run these attacks on a regular basis until the United States finally says that's enough, and it wouldn't do much to escalate anything. There would probably be consequences later, but who knows what those will be. The biggest thing are the proxies Iran supports like Hamas fighting Israel, but that's already going so bad in the shitter with Netanyahu in charge and Abbas pretty much completely emasculated - and aged 87 to boot - that like I said before, tensions are already pegged at the max. I don't know how much more Iran, Hamas et al are going to be motivated to do beyond what they're already motivated to do. Certainly nothing that leads to WWIII. 

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TKthunder2

TKthunder2 4959

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2 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

Honestly, I bet Israel could run these attacks on a regular basis until the United States finally says that's enough, and it wouldn't do much to escalate anything. There would probably be consequences later, but who knows what those will be.

I agree with most of what you said, but this is what I disagree with as those consequences could be immediate. I do appreciate the detailed response. +rep

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SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7492

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

I agree with most of what you said, but this is what I disagree with as those consequences could be immediate. I do appreciate the detailed response. +rep

What consequences do you think would be immediate? You know the West Bank and Gaza are already at recent historic levels of violence, the PA has already ceased any cooperation with Israeli authorities. They haven't been able to patrol certain Hamas controlled areas of the West Bank for a long time now because they're not welcome, so now Israel conducts daily raids with frequent collateral deaths from women and children bystanders. That sounds critical of Israel, when I generally go out of my way to defend them, but that's the facts on the ground right now. 

West Bank and Gaza are about to enter a new era of violence. Possibly it could be unprecedented, although as we know that's saying something. My point I was trying to make is that's going to occur no matter what kind of sorties Israel flies into Iran. There's going to be a tendency to blame these sorties for the escalation in violence. That analysis is extremely wrong, IMO. It would happen no matter what. What I feel highly confident about is that it won't lead to WWIII. 

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