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What's happening in Iran?

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bolverk

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48 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Here's the tweet where that screenshot came from.

Tweet 1: A video of the moment of the explosion at the door of one of the ammunition manufacturing centers of the Ministry of Defense in #Isfahan.

Tweet 2: The Sedavasima news agency has reported that a huge explosion was heard in the city #Isfahan in one of the ammunition manufacturing centers of the Ministry of Defense, and there have been no casualties so far.

The cause of the explosion has not yet been announced.


 

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Schulz2.0

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13 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Here's the tweet where that screenshot came from.

Tweet 1: A video of the moment of the explosion at the door of one of the ammunition manufacturing centers of the Ministry of Defense in #Isfahan.

Tweet 2: The Sedavasima news agency has reported that a huge explosion was heard in the city #Isfahan in one of the ammunition manufacturing centers of the Ministry of Defense, and there have been no casualties so far.

The cause of the explosion has not yet been announced.


 

There's also this:

 

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atomheartbevo

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7 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I feel like this is getting shockingly little attention.  

3 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

If it wasn't for this thread, I would have no idea any of this shit was going down today.

It’s really bizarre because this should be getting more attention.  It’s on a fairly large scale which means a state actor *cough* Israel *cough*.  Could be tied a bit to Ukraine, but degrading Russia’s weapons supplier also means degrading Iran’s ability to hit Israel.  Plus, this comes at a time when the Iranian government doesn’t have control of the whole country.  A failure to respond on some level makes them look even weaker to the populace.   Could also be tied to Azerbaijan, which means it could blow up into a regional thing, which is extremely bad for Russia since a few other areas could decided to settle some scores or even break away from Russia. 

And Russia can’t spare a lot to help Iran with its neighbors, since, you know, they are leaning on Iran to help them against their neighbor.

It’s getting coverage in the international press, and could just be that it’s not seen as a big deal yet by the media honchos in the US.

As for where I’m seeing stuff, on Twitter, but Twitter seems to be burying this shit in favor of stupid shit I give no fucks about, including promoting Elon’s tweets in my feed, which is fucking bullshit.

This could blow up into a major regional thing and even redraw some borders.

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Fudge Nuggets

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1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

BBC, Al Jazeera, and The Guardian all have stories on it.

Guess I’m getting directed to the US versions because it’s all Ukraine, Tyre Nichols, and some Prince Andrew shit when I click on bbc and The Guardian.  There was even a lead about the NFL playoffs but fuck all about Iran on the front. 

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TKthunder2

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9 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

What I feel highly confident about is that it won't lead to WWIII. 

Two theaters of war. Iran has already been assisting Russia. I don’t think it’s a far fetched as you do for a WWIII situation to arise with teams already loosely established (West/West like countries supporting Ukraine vs Russia and their allies/China/NK/Iran).

The Middle East is a mess and with South Korea considering going nuclear, China and India struggling with COVID the Far East isn’t much better.

Can mutually assured destruction prevent this from going full all out war? Absolutely…but I see a powder keg waiting for a match to kick off and this could be the start of that. When the major players are focused on one war other players may try to take advantage of the distraction. North Korea/South Korea, China/Taiwan, India/Pakistan, Israel/Iran were all on my bingo card once Russia invaded and I think we can check off that last one now as Israel flying into Iran’s airspace seems like a pretty major escalation to me.

Yes, this could be a lot of nothing, but I think a reasonable person would agree that with Israel’s direct attack on Iran, we are closer to WWIII this week than we were last week.

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SL Xpress

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11 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Two theaters of war. Iran has already been assisting Russia. I don’t think it’s a far fetched as you do for a WWIII situation to arise with teams already loosely established (West/West like countries supporting Ukraine vs Russia and their allies/China/NK/Iran).

The Middle East is a mess and with South Korea considering going nuclear, China and India struggling with COVID the Far East isn’t much better.

Can mutually assured destruction prevent this from going full all out war? Absolutely…but I see a powder keg waiting for a match to kick off and this could be the start of that. When the major players are focused on one war other players may try to take advantage of the distraction. North Korea/South Korea, China/Taiwan, India/Pakistan, Israel/Iran were all on my bingo card once Russia invaded and I think we can check off that last one now as Israel flying into Iran’s airspace seems like a pretty major escalation to me.

Yes, this could be a lot of nothing, but I think a reasonable person would agree that with Israel’s direct attack on Iran, we are closer to WWIII this week than we were last week.

 

I don’t agree. I guess I’m not a reasonable person. Iran has isolated themselves in the region with their attempt to export their revolution. 

I don’t understand how India and China suffering through their waves of Covid is adding a strain on world affairs on top of the Ukraine war. South Korea going nuclear sounds like smart policy to me since the powers that be haven’t been able to do anything about North Korea’s nuclear weapons. How protected would you feel by the US nuclear umbrella if you were Korean?

And I should make something clear. I consider the chances of there being a future use of nuclear weapons at 100%, and anyone who thinks differently is kidding themselves. To me we should be acting as a species acknowledging that reality. At this point it’s an 80 year old technology with too few consequences for its development and too many advantages for its possession. And the more folks who have access to it, the more likely its used. Extrapolate that out to forever and it leads to a 100% certainty it will be used at some point, possibly exterminating life on this planet. Or at the very least making the planet a lot less livable. 

To me the biggest lesson to be learned internationally from the Russian invasion of Ukraine is if you have possession of nuclear weapons, for goodness sakes don’t give them up in exchange for a piece of paper guaranteeing your sovereignty. Might as well hand Cersei a proclamation signed by the recently deceased king naming you as regent and watch what happens.  

But this isn’t the assasination of Archduke Ferdinand. North Korea is less isolated with China’s patronage than Iran is. The Persians managed to piss everyone off. It’s not like Israel is well loved. Even slightly. But there’s no one to come to Iran’s rescue. The folks that would love to - Hamas, Assad, the Houthis, Shiites the world over - would already love to massacre every Jew in the Middle East if they could. Russia doesn’t have any great affinity for Iran. They have an alignment of interests because they’re both aligned against the US international hegemony, but Russia is in the process of getting their ass kicked. They have zero desire to take on Israel in any context.

Personally I’d look for a different domino in this powder keg. 

I’m not trying to downplay the significance of it. This is a huge escalation between Iran and Israel. I am downplaying the significance of its impact on world affairs. 

In simplest terms, Iran fucked around and found out. Now they have internal massive protests, they’re the strongest supporter of an isolated aggressor in a European war, they’re exporters of a revolutionary religious jihad antithetical to the Sunni majority. There’s no one to come to their rescue, and that’s the truth if it. The only strong countries remotely friendly to them want their cheap oil, but they want access to Western markets more. 

When you’re talking about getting worried about WWIII, I’d recommend looking elsewhere. 

 

 

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TKthunder2

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We can agree to disagree, but just to clarify. The COVID part was more pointed at China and less at India. The thought is that of the pickup and focus on Taiwan has been that China’s COVID policies have been an abject failure and their only play has been an over the top focus on nationalistic pride. A ‘quick and decisive’ re-conquering of Taiwan forcing reunification (I feel like I’ve seen this movie before) would be a way to deflect from that failure and highlight a major milestone for the people of mainland China to celebrate.

China’s lust for Taiwan won’t go way, and with the world distracted by Russia, this could be their best opportunity to reach that goal without making front page headlines all over the globe. While people would not be happy with them, with the war in Ukraine and a possible world wide recession on the horizon, would limit the ability to enact too many sanctions. But even if they do enact some token sanctions, China now has a few partners in Iran/Russia/NK plus a few like India/Brazil that are less inclined to follow the lead of the West that could help offset. Still China would mostly be betting that the US can’t quit China’s cheap labor cold turkey, and that they’d eventually get away with it and everything would normalize within a few years.

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SL Xpress

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15 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

We can agree to disagree, but just to clarify. The COVID part was more pointed at China and less at India. The thought is that of the pickup and focus on Taiwan has been that China’s COVID policies have been an abject failure and their only play has been an over the top focus on nationalistic pride. A ‘quick and decisive’ re-conquering of Taiwan forcing reunification (I feel like I’ve seen this movie before) would be a way to deflect from that failure and highlight a major milestone for the people of mainland China to celebrate.

China’s lust for Taiwan won’t go way, and with the world distracted by Russia, this could be their best opportunity to reach that goal without making front page headlines all over the globe. While people would not be happy with them, with the war in Ukraine and a possible world wide recession on the horizon, would limit the ability to enact too many sanctions. But even if they do enact some token sanctions, China now has a few partners in Iran/Russia/NK plus a few like India/Brazil that are less inclined to follow the lead of the West that could help offset. Still China would mostly be betting that the US can’t quit China’s cheap labor cold turkey, and that they’d eventually get away with it and everything would normalize within a few years.

I just think you’re looking for things to worry about. I’m not saying China won’t ever make a play for Taiwan, but the truth is they don’t have the amphibious or force projection capability to do it right now. Taiwan doesn’t have any nice soft beaches to form a beach head, and China has never participated in a successful modern amphibious landing in their history. It doesn’t mean they can’t, but as I already said, they don’t even have the capability at the moment.

They also have some similar issues to the Russians in the sense that political loyalty is valued over competence. There’s an officer from the communist party embedded in every unit with a different command and promotion reporting structure to the rest of the military. The armed forces swear allegiance to the party, not to their country. Their units are getting waxed in skirmishes with the Indians for goodness sakes. 

I’m not saying China is no threat. They’re a huge threat on a number of axes. I am saying you’re overestimating the likelihood of an imminent invasion.

if you think the nationalist rhetoric coming out of China is something new, you haven’t been paying attention. They’re a proud people with arguably the richest cultural history on the planet who feel like they were shunted into irrelevance by the western powers for a couple of hundred years and now are excited to flex what they perceive as their rightful stature in the world, while the US continues to plot to hem them in. Which isn’t entirely inaccurate. Unlike Iran, they’re also doing a great job at expanding their influence, both at their border and across the globe, through trade, bribery, and the promise of an alignment outside of the West's auspices. This is not a country dead set at entering WWIII. It’s antithetical to their aspirations. They want to bring about a world order where they’ve displaced the US at the top of the pyramid. They consider it as inevitable, actually. But they don’t see it being through armed conflict as much as having the ability to project military might as a means to an end. 

Make no mistake. Taiwan has existential issues for sure. But to me what has transpired with Ukraine pushes that crisis farther away rather than making it more imminent. 

Honestly, if you want to be concerned, look for China to start exploiting resources in the South China Sea that is claimed by other countries before worrying about Taiwan, because I feel quite confident that is a much more imminent flash point. 

And all that said, Israel striking targets inside Iran won’t change the Chinese calculus. It’s an entirely separate issue which will or won’t come to a head regardless of how many times the Israeli Air Force shows Iran they can’t do anything to stop them. 

You also say the US is distracted, but Ukraine has been the best bang for the buck anyone in the US could ask for. Other than the HIMARS every major piece of equipment is outdated and pulled out of storage. Iraq and Afghanistan were distractions. Ukraine is basically a hobby for the US military. It’s not even a side gig at this point. 

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atomheartbevo

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

and their only play has been an over the top focus on nationalistic pride. A ‘quick and decisive’ re-conquering of Taiwan forcing reunification (I feel like I’ve seen this movie before) would be a way to deflect from that failure and highlight a major milestone for the people of mainland China to celebrate.

To be followed by the US, Japan, South Korea, etc. cutting off trade with them, and putting 100s of millions of Chinese out of work and in the streets, and by the way, they'll probably have food shortages if imports dry up.

That would be a great distraction from a few million dying of covid.

1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

China’s lust for Taiwan won’t go way, and with the world distracted by Russia, this could be their best opportunity to reach that goal without making front page headlines all over the globe. 

China doesn't have the naval infrastructure to make a successful amphibious assault against Taiwan.  They just don't, and as @SL Xpress mentioned, Taiwan doesn't have the beaches needed to support the kind of amphibious invasion China would have to conduct to take over Taiwan - they are relatively small beaches with lots of urban areas around them, lots of cliffs, lots of chokepoints even if they could get off the beaches - they would make Omaha Beach look like a walk in the park.  Taiwan has been prepping for decades, and they have a lot more modern equipment than Ukraine had last February.

And their military has never conducted an amphibious assault, and they don't have the numbers of special-built ships for such an assault - China is literally willing to load thousands upon thousands of troops in fucking cruise ships, which are the wet dream of any anti-ship missile battery or submarine commander, because they are slow, fucking huge, and flat-sided and put out a nice juicy radar target, not to mention you would be killing thousands upon thousands of Chinese every time one of those ships went down.

And the special-built amphibious warfare ships they do have are like any large amphibious warfare ships - they are not meant to move around in open, heavily-contested water, and every one of them that is lost, means the rest have to make additional round trips to ferry troops and equipment.

They don't have enough ships of any type to fully get everybody they need to conquer Taiwan, which means 100 miles to Taiwan, and 100 miles back, and they would all be facing heavy fire power a big chunk of that 200 mile trip.  Just like we wouldn't make an airborne drop if we don't have air supremacy, the Chinese can't conduct such an operation without naval supremacy, up to and including destroying Taiwan's Air Force as well as her ships and all of the missile batteries that they have.

 

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bolverk

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Pretty good context provided in this piece. tl/dr: Israel has been using quadcopters for a couple of years now in this types of operations, and we on Surly are just now noticing.

 

Quote

 

Israel Launched Drone Attack on Iranian Facility, Officials Say
While the target’s purpose is unclear, the city of Isfahan is a major center of Iranian missile production, research and development.

TEL AVIV — A drone attack on an Iranian military facility that resulted in a large explosion in the center of the city of Isfahan on Saturday was the work of the Mossad, Israel’s premier intelligence agency, according to senior intelligence officials who were familiar with the dialogue between Israel and the United States about the incident.

The facility’s purpose was not clear, and neither was how much damage the strike caused. But Isfahan is a major center of missile production, research and development for Iran, including the assembly of many of its Shahab medium-range missiles, which can reach Israel and beyond.

Weeks ago, American officials publicly identified Iran as the primary supplier of drones to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine, and they said they believed Russia was also trying to obtain Iranian missiles to use in the conflict. But U.S. officials said they believed this strike was prompted by Israel’s concerns about its own security, not the potential for missile exports to Russia.

 

Quote

 

The strike came just as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken was beginning a visit to Israel, his first since Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office as prime minister. The director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William J. Burns, visited Israel last week, though it is not clear anything about the operation in Isfahan was discussed.

American officials quickly sent out word on Sunday morning that the United States was not responsible for the attack. One official confirmed that it had been conducted by Israel but did not have details about the target. Sometimes Israel gives the United States advance warning of an attack or informs American officials as an operation is being launched. It is unclear what happened in this case.

Isfahan is the site of four small nuclear research facilities, all supplied by China many years ago. But the facility that was struck on Saturday was in the middle of the city and did not appear to be nuclear-related.

 

Quote

 

Iran made no effort to hide the fact that an attack had happened, but said it had done little damage. In statements, senior Iranian officials contended that the drones — apparently quadcopters, a kind of aircraft with four separate propellers — had all been shot down.

Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, reported on Sunday that the drones had targeted an ammunition manufacturing plant, and that they had been shot down by a surface-to-air defense system. It is not clear why Iran would build an ammunition production plant in the middle of a city of roughly two million people.

Iran’s foreign minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, said at a news conference in Tehran on Sunday that “a cowardly drone attack on a military site in central Iran will not impede Iran’s progress on its peaceful nuclear program.”

 

Quote

 

This is Israel’s first known attack inside Iran since Mr. Netanyahu reassumed office, and it may indicate that he has adopted the strategy formed under his two predecessors and political rivals, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who expanded Israeli attacks inside Iran.

The quadcopters have become a signature of such operations.

In August 2019, Israel sent an exploding quadcopter into the heart of a Hezbollah-dominated neighborhood in Beirut, Lebanon, to destroy what Israeli officials described as machinery vital to the production of precision missiles.

In June 2021, quadcopters exploded at one of Iran’s main manufacturing centers for centrifuges, which purify uranium at the country’s two major uranium enrichment facilities, Fordow and Natanz. That attack was in Karaj, on the outskirts of Tehran. Iran claimed that there was no damage to the site, but satellite images showed evidence of significant damage.

A year ago, six quadcopters exploded at Kermanshah, Iran’s main manufacturing and storage plant for military drones.

And in May 2022, a drone strike targeted a highly sensitive military site outside Tehran where Iran develops missile, nuclear and drone technology.

The targets — presumably including the military facility in Isfahan — have been chosen in part to shake the Iranian leadership, because they demonstrate intelligence about the locations of key sites, even those hidden in the middle of cities.

But the strikes also reflect a change in Israeli strategy made after Mr. Bennett became prime minister in June 2021. He lasted a year in the post.

 

Quote

 

Mr. Bennett says in a forthcoming YouTube video shared with The New York Times that he decided to “create a price tag” and strike inside Iran in response to any attack on Israelis or Jews around the world. “The Iranians beat us, and soldiers die on the border,” Mr. Bennett says in the self-produced interview, while Iranian leaders “sit quietly in Tehran and we do nothing to them.”

It was not just the quadcopter attacks.

After “Iran tried to murder Israelis in Cyprus, in Turkey,” Mr. Bennett says, the Revolutionary Guards Corps commander behind it “was eliminated in Tehran.” He is referring to the assassination of Sayad Khodayee, who Israel claimed was a leader of a covert unit responsible for the abduction and killing of Israelis and other foreigners around the world.

After Israel adopted the new strategy, Mr. Bennett says in the video, President Biden, during a meeting, made a “sharp request” that Israel inform the United States in advance “of any action we take in Iran.”

Mr. Bennett refused, he says.

“There are things you do not want to know about in advance,” he recalls telling the American president.

The intelligence communities of Israel and the United States clashed on the issue in April 2021 after an operation by the Mossad to blow up bunkers at the Natanz enrichment site surprised the United States.

Mr. Burns called his counterpart at the Mossad at the time, Yossi Cohen, to express concern over the snub. Mr. Cohen said that the belated notification was the result of operational constraints and uncertainty about when the Natanz operation would take place.

 

 

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Bevo

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5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

They don't have enough ships of any type to fully get everybody they need to conquer Taiwan, which means 100 miles to Taiwan, and 100 miles back, and they would all be facing heavy fire power a big chunk of that 200 mile trip.

I thought China built some huge bad ass arks back in 2012.

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Handcruser

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China doesn't have the naval infrastructure to make a successful amphibious assault against Taiwan.  They just don't, and as [mention=6410]SL Xpress[/mention] mentioned, Taiwan doesn't have the beaches needed to support the kind of amphibious invasion China would have to conduct to take over Taiwan - they are relatively small beaches with lots of urban areas around them, lots of cliffs, lots of chokepoints even if they could get off the beaches - they would make Omaha Beach look like a walk in the park.  Taiwan has been prepping for decades, and they have a lot more modern equipment than Ukraine had last February.
And their military has never conducted an amphibious assault, and they don't have the numbers of special-built ships for such an assault - China is literally willing to load thousands upon thousands of troops in fucking cruise ships, which are the wet dream of any anti-ship missile battery or submarine commander, because they are slow, fucking huge, and flat-sided and put out a nice juicy radar target, not to mention you would be killing thousands upon thousands of Chinese every time one of those ships went down.
And the special-built amphibious warfare ships they do have are like any large amphibious warfare ships - they are not meant to move around in open, heavily-contested water, and every one of them that is lost, means the rest have to make additional round trips to ferry troops and equipment.
They don't have enough ships of any type to fully get everybody they need to conquer Taiwan, which means 100 miles to Taiwan, and 100 miles back, and they would all be facing heavy fire power a big chunk of that 200 mile trip.  Just like we wouldn't make an airborne drop if we don't have air supremacy, the Chinese can't conduct such an operation without naval supremacy, up to and including destroying Taiwan's Air Force as well as her ships and all of the missile batteries that they have.
 

Wouldn’t China just slowly assemble forces in Taiwan under the guise of egg roll maker or some shit?
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statsman

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My understanding was that- through the protests in Iran, through the supplying of munitions to Russia, the US administration still wanted to reinstate the Obama-era nuke agreement, and that is why we were handling Iran with kid gloves. Right or not right? And are the kid gloves off (did Uncle Sam approve the attack)?

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Fudge Nuggets

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11 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

We can agree to disagree, but just to clarify. The COVID part was more pointed at China and less at India. The thought is that of the pickup and focus on Taiwan has been that China’s COVID policies have been an abject failure and their only play has been an over the top focus on nationalistic pride. A ‘quick and decisive’ re-conquering of Taiwan forcing reunification (I feel like I’ve seen this movie before) would be a way to deflect from that failure and highlight a major milestone for the people of mainland China to celebrate.

China’s lust for Taiwan won’t go way, and with the world distracted by Russia, this could be their best opportunity to reach that goal without making front page headlines all over the globe. While people would not be happy with them, with the war in Ukraine and a possible world wide recession on the horizon, would limit the ability to enact too many sanctions. But even if they do enact some token sanctions, China now has a few partners in Iran/Russia/NK plus a few like India/Brazil that are less inclined to follow the lead of the West that could help offset. Still China would mostly be betting that the US can’t quit China’s cheap labor cold turkey, and that they’d eventually get away with it and everything would normalize within a few years.

This is one of the dumbest posts I’ve read in some time and there has been some really dumb shit posted on this board over the last few weeks.

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TKthunder2

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9 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

This is one of the dumbest posts I’ve read in some time and there has been some really dumb shit posted on this board over the last few weeks.

Stay classy. If you do immediately know an example in history where a nation decided to attack another to claim territory when they were having massive internal problems at home then I can’t help you.

South Korea and Switzerland have reversed their positions on supporting Ukraine (even if just passively). Iran also announced it would change its position on Ukraine and would now be linking its banking system with Russia.

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atomheartbevo

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13 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Iran also announced it would change its position on Ukraine and would now be linking its banking system with Russia.

There have to be a few Russians who are going "wait, we got kicked out of everybody else's banking system, but we are stronger now than we are a year ago, because our banking system is linked with...Iran?"

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Fudge Nuggets

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8 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Stay classy. If you do immediately know an example in history where a nation decided to attack another to claim territory when they were having massive internal problems at home then I can’t help you.

South Korea and Switzerland have reversed their positions on supporting Ukraine (even if just passively). Iran also announced it would change its position on Ukraine and would now be linking its banking system with Russia.

You’re the one that said China could go after Taiwan because of their internal problems. You also said China invading Taiwan would be back page news. 

Like I said, stupid post. 

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PTINS

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On 1/30/2023 at 12:15 AM, TKthunder2 said:

 A ‘quick and decisive’ re-conquering of Taiwan forcing reunification (I feel like I’ve seen this movie before) would be a way to deflect from that failure and highlight a major milestone for the people of mainland China to celebrate.

China’s lust for Taiwan won’t go way, and with the world distracted by Russia, this could be their best opportunity to reach that goal without making front page headlines all over the globe. While people would not be happy with them, 

You think China can waltz in and "re-conquer" Taiwan without anyone noticing? Taiwan is the world's largest supplier of computer chip manufacturing, with a $Trillion economy connected to every major economic power in the world.  "... people would not be happy with them" is a bit of an understatement.

The Taiwan Strait is probably the most watched space of open water in the world, next to the Strait of Hormuz.  The responses above detail why this is problematic, especially with nobody watching.

Whatever issues China has to deal with today, they are positioned to capitalize on a neutered Russia, become Russia's #1 export market and decrease China's oil & gas costs ~10-40%.   Mega Billions of $$$. You think China would rather have some Iranian Rials (equals ~ 0.000024 US Dollar) instead?

It's like China got a bye to the finals of the World Poker Tour for just sitting back and watching.  Will China trade that for a front row seat on how effective the US front line weapons really are?

I think not.

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PTINS

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On 1/29/2023 at 9:26 PM, BearSchlong said:

WSJ “exclusive”

Apologies if it’s paywalled.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-iran-amid-new-international-push-to-contain-tehran-11675004979?st=v83urhg5ovald7d&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Thanks for posting. Surprised it wasn't paywalled...

"Last week, the U.S. and Israel carried out their largest-ever joint military exercise involving more than 7,500 personnel from both countries and a series of scenarios to test their ability to take out air-defense systems and refuel jet planes—both of which could be key elements of a major military strike on Iran."

"Israel’s latest strike comes as Israeli and American officials are discussing new ways to combat Iran’s destabilizing operations, including its deepening military cooperation with Russia."

"The main target of Saturday’s strike was a warehouse located behind a mall in Isfahan that Iran said was an ammunition storehouse. Satellite imagery released on Sunday appeared to show minor damage to the building. The small size of the blast indicated that the target wasn’t an ammunition storehouse, instead, it could have been a lab or military-logistics site.

Satellite imagery showed the warehouse is located across the street from a site belonging to a unit of the Iran Space Research Center—a U.S.-sanctioned organization that has worked with the Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, which is responsible for Iran’s ballistic missile programs, and the Iranian Ministry of Defense."

I get the sense this was more of a FAFO reminder and not an attack to destroy Iran assets.

The target in Ishran is deep into Iran, ~ 500 miles from the northern border.

The "target" was across the street from a a U.S.-sanctioned organization, responsible for Iran's ballistic missile program.

The drones came in naked, without any air defense suppression of any kind.

The "target" of the attack was clear, with visible holes in the roof.

The "target" was across the street from a a U.S.-sanctioned organization, responsible for Iran's ballistic missile program.

There did not appear to be an explosion at this particular "target".

It appears Israel snuck into Iran in the middle of the night and did a "ding dong dash" just to show they could.  Why send an instrument of war 500 miles to take a dump on a building across the street from a coveted military target?

 Israel - Operation Opera

image.png.b492cba564d59aaac1d3ea72c9be7e19.png

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