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What's happening in Iran?

Parliament

By Parliament
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SL Xpress

SL Xpress 7492

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Iran's government can always sink lower - It's almost like the mullahs are thinking, "now watch this".

 

Well, sure. That's the whole point. What I'm asking is, does anyone have a realistic scenario that doesn't turn into the massacre of thousands, and possibly millions, with the situation no better at the end of it than it was at the start? 

The West isn't going to intervene. The border countries aren't going to intervene (maybe if it got horrific enough Turkiye? But that has hair all over it, too). There's not going to be a military coup. There won't be an overthrow from elites. Either people give up their protest - which doesn't look like it's close to happening, it looks like it's heading in the other direction - the government relents (hahahahahaha!), the government engages in mass executions on a frightening scale, and/or someone somewhere arms militant protesters and we get Syria II, Electric Boogaloo. I'm not seeing anything else. Are you?

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Well, sure. That's the whole point. What I'm asking is, does anyone have a realistic scenario that doesn't turn into the massacre of thousands, and possibly millions, with the situation no better at the end of it than it was at the start? 
The West isn't going to intervene. The border countries aren't going to intervene (maybe if it got horrific enough Turkiye? But that has hair all over it, too). There's not going to be a military coup. There won't be an overthrow from elites. Either people give up their protest - which doesn't look like it's close to happening, it looks like it's heading in the other direction - the government relents (hahahahahaha!), the government engages in mass executions on a frightening scale, and/or someone somewhere arms militant protesters and we get Syria II, Electric Boogaloo. I'm not seeing anything else. Are you?

Nope. I think that about covers it.
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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19271

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49 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

Is Iran shipping shit to Russia through the Caspian Sea? They would almost have to, right? The long way around would take a while and expose that shipping to NATO warships. Too bad Ukraine can't smuggle a few of those maritime drones into Azerbaijan. Sinking one or two Iranian freighters would likely put a pretty big dent in Russia's war fighting Terrorism capability. 

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statsman

statsman 5356

Posted
Posted (edited)

It looks like Iran has said, “fuck it, we’re joining the nuclear club”. 
 
Israel was always to be the backstop (because, with the sheer quantity of missiles Iran throws at Israel every year, Israel can’t bear them being nuclear) to keep them from doing it, and with the Saudis hostile to Iran, nobody would have cared if Israel had bombed the shit out of their nuke facilities. Not so easy now. 

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Handcruser

Handcruser 2803

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It looks like Iran has said, “fuck it, we’re joining the nuclear club”. 
 
Israel was always to be the backstop (because, with the sheer quantity of missiles Iran throws at Israel every year, Israel can’t bear them being nuclear) to keep them from doing it, and with the Saudis hostile to Iran, nobody would have cared if Israel had bombed the shit out of their nuke facilities. Not so easy now. 

Wut
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statsman

statsman 5356

Posted
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36 minutes ago, Handcruser said:


Wut

It’s in the news. 
 
Iran is trading weapons with Russia for nuke help. 
 
Iran is making nice with Saudi. Saudi had been palling with Israel, because they had a common foe. Now, they don’t. 
 
I don’t see any way to view the latest news without alarm. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89123

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3 hours ago, statsman said:

It’s in the news. 
 
Iran is trading weapons with Russia for nuke help. 
 
Iran is making nice with Saudi. Saudi had been palling with Israel, because they had a common foe. Now, they don’t. 
 
I don’t see any way to view the latest news without alarm. 

Iran is still Shiite.  We will see how long any truce of sorts  lasts.  

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statsman

statsman 5356

Posted
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Iran’s cozying with Sunni Syria is another example. 
 
How close are they to getting nukes? Before the Saudi-Iran cozying, I felt Israel had the green light on blowing up anything they needed to to stop Iran from getting nukes. Now, I’m not sure. 

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statsman

statsman 5356

Posted
Posted (edited)

Answered

Gen. Mark Milley told Congress on Thursday that Iran would need only several months to build a nuclear weapon if Tehran opted to produce a bomb
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-could-produce-nuclear-weapon-in-several-months-if-it-decides-to-do-so-mark-milley-says-ecd38f07?st=u9ttynwoxoiaer4&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

(Narrator): “They want to produce a bomb”

Milley also said the US won’t allow them to field a nuclear weapon. 

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elfenix

elfenix 34144

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On 3/24/2023 at 6:57 AM, statsman said:

Iran’s cozying with Sunni Syria is another example. 
 
How close are they to getting nukes? Before the Saudi-Iran cozying, I felt Israel had the green light on blowing up anything they needed to to stop Iran from getting nukes. Now, I’m not sure. 

al-assads are alawites, which, while not iranian twelver, are a flavor of shia, not sunni.

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statsman

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Russia is helping Iran gain advanced digital-surveillance capabilities as Tehran seeks deeper cooperation on cyberwarfare, adding another layer to a burgeoning alliance
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-supplies-iran-with-cyber-weapons-as-military-cooperation-grows-b14b94cd?st=4zhikfo2pv9zh70&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
 

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elfenix

elfenix 34144

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Nsiap:

 

Quote

Nahid Siamdoust left Iran with her family toward the end of the Iran-Iraq War, after an Iraqi bomb hit her elementary school, killing a number of students. In the decades since, she has lived a truly global life, coming of age in Germany, attending college and graduate school in the U.S., working as a journalist in Iran and Qatar, and then earning her Ph.D. in the U.K. She is now an assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies at UT Austin and the author of Soundtrack of the Revolution: The Politics of Music in Iran (Stanford, 2017). I spoke to Siamdoust recently about her background, her work as a reporter, her scholarship, and her thoughts on the ongoing fight for democracy in Iran.

https://lifeandletters.la.utexas.edu/2023/03/from-iran-and-back-again-talking-with-nahid-siamdoust/

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grazinhorn

grazinhorn 472

Posted
Posted
On 3/28/2023 at 4:30 PM, elfenix said:

Nsiap:

 

https://lifeandletters.la.utexas.edu/2023/03/from-iran-and-back-again-talking-with-nahid-siamdoust/

The assassination brought me back, but I had missed this from just up the thread.  Thanks for posting.  I do know a number of Persians, but I'd never really thought about why.  Good stuff, too, about reasons to believe in the people.

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