What's happening in Iran?

[Deej 76793]

 

[The Dog 44052]

 

[The Dog 44052]

 

[twosheds 374]

I need to read Then the Fish Swallowed Him again. Good novel about Iran's shitty police state 

Thanks for the recommendation. I just ordered for Friday delivery.

[Humble Beast 258]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

In matters of internal Iranian politics, we should probably STFU for the time being. 

Good luck with that. That’s like asking you or GiphyLobo to not comment on any Surly thread. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by Humble Beast

[SimonBolivar 10958]

Just now, Humble Beast said:

Good luck with that. That’s like asking you or GiphyLobo to not comment on any Surly thread. 

I thought you had your own thread.

[Humble Beast 258]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

I thought you had your own thread.

I have like 3. Sometimes they let me out to comment on others. 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[The Dog 44052]

Yup

[Gatorubet 30239]

“Hello…is this Putin??  Yeah, about those drones we promised…”

[Saint Austin 745]

I’ve seen this before. While encouraging, I’m not getting my hopes up that thud will lead to any sort of regime change or secular revolution. 

[The Dog 44052]

13 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

I’ve seen this before. While encouraging, I’m not getting my hopes up that thud will lead to any sort of regime change or secular revolution. 

they are taking on the police and secret police directly.

Ceaușescu's regime fell because the army joined the protest against the secret police. 

that's what needs to happen. 

of course, they may not care and if they are willing to take a beatdown and die then the regime is in trouble. 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

they are taking on the police and secret police directly.

Ceaușescu's regime fell because the army joined the protest against the secret police. 

that's what needs to happen. 

of course, they may not care and if they are willing to take a beatdown and die then the regime is in trouble. 

So far, the Iranian military seems to be sitting this one out, but no idea if that's because the regime knows that they run the risk of the military ramping up the rioting, or run the risk of the military not supporting the regime.

[atomheartbevo 89670]

This has applied to Russian forces falling apart in Ukraine, and could apply here:

Dornbusch's Law in action. That law says that the inevitable crisis takes longer to come than you can imagine, but when it does come it happens faster than you can imagine.

[tx 3 putt 76958]

the guard will greatly amp up the violence to squash this out

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

On 7/8/2018 at 3:26 AM, 52-80 said:

His parents came from India

 

They were Persian and Zoroastrian and lived in India to escape persecution.

 

5 hours ago, Saint Austin said:

I’ve seen this before. While encouraging, I’m not getting my hopes up that thud will lead to any sort of regime change or secular revolution. 

 

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So far, the Iranian military seems to be sitting this one out, but no idea if that's because the regime knows that they run the risk of the military ramping up the rioting, or run the risk of the military not supporting the regime.

 

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

the guard will greatly amp up the violence to squash this out

 

Yes, look for how the Revolutionary Guards and regular military react. The guards have tons of power and weapons, so much so I'm not sure the Army could take them. Still rooting for the normal Persian citizens though.

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by MagicSoccerSpray

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

On 7/1/2018 at 10:41 AM, Parliament said:

Take your Cloak Room shitbaggery to the the other board.  

 

Oh, and pos rep for this. Fuck that cesspool.

[52-80 19159]

15 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

They were Persian and Zoroastrian and lived in India to escape persecution.

 

But that's like calling President John Adams an English Puritan-Calvinist

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

6 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

But that's like calling President John Adams an English Puritan-Calvinist

 

Yes, ethnically he was. Mercury was ethnic Persian-Parsi, not Indian. Adams was ethnically Anglo.

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

I predict the military, with soldiers from other parts of the country, will put a stop to these protests. Perhaps the govt will announce that over zealous members of the morality police will be prosecuted (executed) for failing to follow the law.

[Parliament 14260]

10 hours ago, Saint Austin said:

I’ve seen this before. While encouraging, I’m not getting my hopes up that thud will lead to any sort of regime change or secular revolution. 

I agree with everything but the last part.  I AM getting my hopes up.  I gather that the Iranian people are super cool, educated and industrious.  With luck and the right kind of help, perhaps they can become what we thought we could make Iraq into.  Imagine that.  I am willing to expend some hope for them.

ETA

I'm totally not trying to argue with you. Not meant to be personal.

[texasdago 7573]

I have a Mexican friend who is traveling through Iran right now... hope she is safe... from what I know she is traveling with a guide so I'm sure they'll keep her out of harm's way.  Bad timing.  Everything I hear about Iran and regular Persians is wonderful - they need to live without a dictatorship.

[crash_davis 23113]

Iran in the 1970s before the bullshit religious nutjobs took over. Fucking religion and nutjobs. 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Siap. From 4 days ago. 
 

Maybe things are aligning 

[atomheartbevo 89670]

12 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Maybe things are aligning 

Their President is out of the country…..

Edit: I think he’s addressing the UN today.

With both leaders out of the picture, who does the Iranian military rally around?

Edited September 21, 2022 by atomheartbevo

[Bevo 13577]

12 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Siap. From 4 days ago. 
 

Maybe things are aligning 

I think falling gravely ill means dead in Farsi.

[The Dog 44052]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Escalating civil unrest can either stop the unrest or fan the flames. 

[52-80 19159]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

I agree with everything but the last part.  I AM getting my hopes up.  I gather that the Iranian people are super cool, educated and industrious. 

Ive seen this happen about 4 times since i started paying attention. Never materializes. 
 

work with a buncha iranian folks over the year…great people, and their cuisine is hugely underrated

[CooterBrown 18012]

Their President is out of the country…..
Edit: I think he’s addressing the UN today.
With both leaders out of the picture, who does the Iranian military rally around?

Do you take your shot? I guess it depends whether or not the upper ranks of the military is filled with religious yes men.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

2 hours ago, Humble Beast said:

Siap. From 4 days ago. 
 

Maybe things are aligning 

 

[The Dog 44052]

 

[crash_davis 23113]

maybe attitudes really are changing. i have hope.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/comments/xk9bsk/man_hits_women_not_wearing_hijab_in_iran_during/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

 

[MillerEP 30455]

"Who should we ask for help when the killer is the police?"

[Parliament 14260]

24 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

maybe attitudes really are changing. i have hope.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nextfuckinglevel/comments/xk9bsk/man_hits_women_not_wearing_hijab_in_iran_during/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

 

Undefeated

[MillerEP 30455]

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

4 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

That video made the hair on my neck stand up. 

[Hate 20108]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That video made the hair on my neck stand up. 

A couple of those women made something else stand up.

[bolverk 29673]

It's interesting to look at the demographics there and a few key figures might explain why they're reaching the tipping point.

They still have a relatively young population (median age 32) but it's a good bit older than 1980 (median age 18). So, have the population is at least still spry enough to get after it in the streets.

Two other key stats:

1. The fertility rate has fallen to just at about replacement levels (2.15 children per woman) versus an astounding fertility rate of 6.28 back in 1980. So, women are not saddled with the burden of just feeding/taking care of a bunch of kids.
2. Today, the urban population is 75.5% compared to just below 50% in 1980. No CR (and I don't think it's a secret) but urban populations, everywhere, tend to be more liberal and secular than rural ones.

In sum, Iran has a relatively young and largely urban population today where women are more likely to view life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness as inalienable rights.

Other things to consider that I don't have the time to look up are educational attainment and internet penetration rates. I'd imagine those would factor in as well.

[crash_davis 23113]

24 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It's interesting to look at the demographics there and a few key figures might explain why they're reaching the tipping point.

They still have a relatively young population (median age 32) but it's a good bit older than 1980 (median age 18). So, have the population is at least still spry enough to get after it in the streets.

Two other key stats:

1. The fertility rate has fallen to just at about replacement levels (2.15 children per woman) versus an astounding fertility rate of 6.28 back in 1980. So, women are not saddled with the burden of just feeding/taking care of a bunch of kids.
2. Today, the urban population is 75.5% compared to just below 50% in 1980. No CR (and I don't think it's a secret) but urban populations, everywhere, tend to be more liberal and secular than rural ones.

In sum, Iran has a relatively young and largely urban population today where women are more likely to view life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness as inalienable rights.

Other things to consider that I don't have the time to look up are educational attainment and internet penetration rates. I'd imagine those would factor in as well.

you just described the US

[Trey3216 15346]

28 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It's interesting to look at the demographics there and a few key figures might explain why they're reaching the tipping point.

They still have a relatively young population (median age 32) but it's a good bit older than 1980 (median age 18). So, have the population is at least still spry enough to get after it in the streets.

Two other key stats:

1. The fertility rate has fallen to just at about replacement levels (2.15 children per woman) versus an astounding fertility rate of 6.28 back in 1980. So, women are not saddled with the burden of just feeding/taking care of a bunch of kids.
2. Today, the urban population is 75.5% compared to just below 50% in 1980. No CR (and I don't think it's a secret) but urban populations, everywhere, tend to be more liberal and secular than rural ones.

In sum, Iran has a relatively young and largely urban population today where women are more likely to view life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness as inalienable rights.

Other things to consider that I don't have the time to look up are educational attainment and internet penetration rates. I'd imagine those would factor in as well.

Iran's educational attainment rate has been high for decades, even after the takeover.  

[sidis 9828]

i recognize the ridiculously superficial nature of such a post in light of the seriousness with which women in iran are fighting for their lives and their liberation from an utterly antiquated and jejune cultural mindset that has inhibited what could otherwise be a great country...but man, what a crime against humanity that the persian female has been physically hidden away from the world for so ridiculously long.

[bolverk 29673]

Just now, crash_davis said:

you just described the US

Median age in the US is about 39. That might not sound like a lot, but it's a good bit older. We haven't been that young since the 1980s. Also, our population is about 80 percent urbanized. But, yes, from a very basic demographic standpoint, they're only a few decades behind us.

The main point being, those data point to a country that would likely not want to be ruled by an ultra-conservative & backward-looking religious group, looking at it from a very broad perspective.

[Trey3216 15346]

1 minute ago, sidis said:

i recognize the ridiculously superficial nature of such a post in light of the seriousness with which women in iran are fighting for their lives and their liberation from an utterly antiquated and jejune cultural mindset that has inhibited what could otherwise be a great country...but man, what a crime against humanity that the persian female has been physically hidden away from the world for so ridiculously long.

 

[bolverk 29673]

5 minutes ago, sidis said:

i recognize the ridiculously superficial nature of such a post in light of the seriousness with which women in iran are fighting for their lives and their liberation from an utterly antiquated and jejune cultural mindset that has inhibited what could otherwise be a great country...but man, what a crime against humanity that the persian female has been physically hidden away from the world for so ridiculously long.

Pos rep for "jejune." I don't think I've ever seen someone use that term on this site before.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

 

[crash_davis 23113]

15 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/xkbxe8/women_of_iran_removing_their_hijabs_while/?sort=top

 

Acrobatic_Internal_2

·2 hr. ago·edited 54 min. ago

I'm in Tehran right now. Everything is getting uglier by a minute. They weakened Internet bandwidth and speed by alot to they point I have to wait 15 seconds or so for a simple google search result and we hearing gun fire shots. Also they pulled the plug on Whatsapp and Instagram an hour ago and we can only access via VPN.

Those assholes at top of the regime will pay for what they did!

Edit: Thank you for all your support and positive comments🙏🏻. I will do my best to keep you guys updated. Unfortunately the regime cut off Mobile data connections in whole Tehran area so people can't share their protest videos as i write this and I'm using home network as now that is the only way I can connect to internet (and I'm not sure if they pull the plug on that as well). The only positive thing I can say now is that people took control of Tajrish and Valiasr neighborhoods here and set the police cars on fire.

Edit #2: For everyone willing to help please share NetBlocks reports on Iran's Internet stats to everyone you know including news outlets so everyone can know that they are taking citizens basic Human Rights from them and that means things can get even more uglier since they won't be afraid of killing and arresting people like what they did in 2009.

https://twitter.com/netblocks Please retweet or share their posts and mention everyone from journalists to politicians to even your friends because every single awareness is matter to us.

[Brisketexan 105142]

59 minutes ago, bolverk said:

internet penetration rates

22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Pos rep for "jejune." I don't think I've ever seen someone use that term on this site before.

Sure ya have.  Why, lots of folks have been talking about those lawyer ads about people who got poisoned at Camp Jejune.