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What's happening in Iran?

Parliament

By Parliament
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Superhero

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On 3/10/2023 at 10:07 AM, MissingInAction said:

We it looks like I have my choice between Persian, Ukrainian, or Russian mail order brides.

Great time to be an American bachelor.

 

On 3/10/2023 at 5:18 PM, Brisketexan said:

You'll get a super hairy Armenian gal with giant eyebrows, and you'll like it!

 

On 3/11/2023 at 7:42 AM, JesusSweatDuck said:

Nothing a lot of laser hair removal won't fix


Hair is the not the problem. Have you actually been around Iranian women? They are some of the most stubborn, scariest, and passionate in all the wrong ways females to be around.

I’d light my dick on fire before crossing a Persian woman. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2751

Posted
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Start up the protests again?

The mullahs have proven themselves quite resilient.  Between this and Turkey I wonder if autocratic regimes are getting better at letting protests breathe a little, burn themselves out, and not have them crescendo into toppled governments.  
 

Would love to read some realpolitik type commentary on if there’s an observable point in time in which outside pressure does show some chance of making regime change happen.  I think our hands off approach (if that’s the case, who knows what’s going on in the background) is we clearly don’t have any confidence that we could influence towards regime change and don’t like the risk/reward).  I also think the Persians expatriates aren’t lobbying the DOD and state department like the Iraqis before 9/11 and there’s not a presumptive government in wait to support and keep the transition from becoming chaotic.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106883

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Start up the protests again?

The mullahs have proven themselves quite resilient.  Between this and Turkey I wonder if autocratic regimes are getting better at letting protests breathe a little, burn themselves out, and not have them crescendo into toppled governments.  
 

Would love to read some realpolitik type commentary on if there’s an observable point in time in which outside pressure does show some chance of making regime change happen.  I think our hands off approach (if that’s the case, who knows what’s going on in the background) is we clearly don’t have any confidence that we could influence towards regime change and don’t like the risk/reward).  I also think the Persians expatriates aren’t lobbying the DOD and state department like the Iraqis before 9/11 and there’s not a presumptive government in wait to support and keep the transition from becoming chaotic.  

I'm becoming convinced that there's some sort of greater global psychic energy in play (I mean, not all crystals and essential oils -- something deeper and human).  At this point in time and history, as has happened at other particular spots in history, humanity is just more susceptible to hardline authoritarian regimes.  Not only to we put up with them, there's waves of people in NON-authoritarian regimes clamoring for them (Hungary, Slovakia, the US, Turkey, etc.).  We're going to be in this phase.....until we aren't.  And I don't think there's any particular thing we can do about it.  It's just where humanity is right now, and it will take time for us to be in a different phase.  We can press all we want, the only thing that is going to change this phase is the passage of time and a new zeitgeist.

That's all I can come up with.  Because it's irrational and makes no real sense to me.

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Schulz2.0

Schulz2.0 29280

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12 minutes ago, South Austin said:

You know, I've been leaning toward getting out of that timeshare in Tehran.

My kid started kindergarten this year. His best friend came over with his mother from Tehran a little over a year ago. The dad came over in 2019 on a student visa and got his masters in computer science at a small university in Ohio. Nice people. The dad told my wife and I that they wanted a better life for their son.

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South Austin

South Austin 53221

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Just now, Schulz2.0 said:

My kid started kindergarten this year. His best friend came over with his mother from Tehran a little over a year ago. The dad came over in 2019 on a student visa and got his masters in computer science at a small university in Ohio. Nice people. The dad told my wife and I that they wanted a better life for their son.

So you're saying they wouldn't be interested in taking over my timeshare?

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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This simulation is most confusing.  A Islamic Republic of Theocratic Fascists is using evil American geniuses posing as senile morons to plan their own christo-fascist regimes in the West in the name of the global Jewish Cabal using Palestinian blood and Russian weaponry built financed by China's wealth on the backs of our love of cheap hats and tacky flags.  

Hallelujah.  Holy shit, where's the Tylenol.  

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Bevo

Bevo 13870

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Too long to watch - what's the thesis/takeaway?

There isn't one because multiple questions were asked, but..

Iran survives through the misery of Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. It has no interest in furthering its people's lives. If they become doctors in the US, they are no longer useful to Iran.

Iran supposes that the US has no appetite for a direct conflict in the middle east. Negotiations only serve to empower Iran. Negotiations reinforce the idea that the US has no appetite for war. And usually Iran increases its war efforts when negotiations are taking place.

The US is currently okay with China purchasing O&G from Iran.

Iran used to be at peace with Israel. However, the theocratic government changed that. Iran has been consistent in not wanting peace with the US and not wanting the existence of Israel.

Iran may suffer in conflicts but later it usually ends up better off than before the conflict.

Iran has taken a macro approach to managing its proxies and hasn't lately delved into the minutia.

Hezbollah has enough missiles that it can likely overwhelm the Israeli defense system.

Edited by Bevo
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Bevo

Bevo 13870

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Posted
23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If that happened, I think Iran starts losing military facilities/factories/heads-of-state.

I assume that is why we have 2 carrier strike groups, an Ohio class sub, nearby bases... It seems though based on what I've seen from our current government is that the military is there to prevent escalation. However, personally, I think this is the only chance the US will have to eliminate Iran's nuclear program before it has nuclear capability. Some think that it already has nuclear capability.

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Bevo

Bevo 13870

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Too long to watch - what's the thesis/takeaway?

You really should watch it. The expert does a very good job of explaining the situation. Basically, Iran has the most influence in failed states. It gains support in these failed nations as the people become more desperate. Iran has no interest in having these countries be successful or to help the people because that runs counter to Iran's interests to remove the US from its sphere of influence, to remove the US from the middle east, and remove Israel and replace it with a shia led country. Iran needs combatants not doctors and lawyers. Negotiating with Iran is futile in that Iran sees it as a sign of weakness and as a sign that the US doesn't have the appetite for war. The only thing that Iran understands is a show of power.

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Hate

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Posted
Posted
I assume that is why we have 2 carrier strike groups, an Ohio class sub, nearby bases... It seems though based on what I've seen from our current government is that the military is there to prevent escalation. However, personally, I think this is the only chance the US will have to eliminate Iran's nuclear program before it has nuclear capability. Some think that it already has nuclear capability.

Wait, I thought Iran pinkie swore they weren’t pursuing nuclear weapons several years ago.
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elfenix

elfenix 34747

Posted
Posted
On 11/6/2023 at 8:36 PM, Hate said:


Wait, I thought Iran pinkie swore they weren’t pursuing nuclear weapons several years ago.

back in 2019 iran announced they would no longer follow the JCPOA since they were no longer getting the benefit of its economic programs. 

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Hate

Hate 20247

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If you can’t understand why some Americans feeeeeeee that a country that regularly shouts “Death to America” don’t think it’s a good idea for that country to have nuclear weapons, I don’t know what to tell you. I know that’s weird.

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elfenix

elfenix 34747

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hate said:

If you can’t understand why some Americans feeeeeeee that a country that regularly shouts “Death to America” don’t think it’s a good idea for that country to have nuclear weapons, I don’t know what to tell you. I know that’s weird.

low-angle-view-scarecrow-against-cloudy-sky-562838541-5aaf18adfa6bcc00360a609c.thumb.png.a2374202655aa6472911812ee60d85dc.png

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Viper

Viper 12219

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Quote

“They violently raped me”

“Islamic Republic of Iran’s agents made us face the walls of the vehicle and gave electric shocks to our legs…They tortured me through beatings … They pulled down my trousers and raped me…I was really being ripped apart…I was throwing up a lot and bleeding from my rectum.”

Maryam, who was gang raped in a Revolutionary Guards detention centre, recounted that her rapists told her: “You are all addicted to penis, so we showed you a good time. Isn’t this what you seek from liberation?”  
Sexual violence weaponized to crush Iran’s “Woman Life Freedom” uprising, documents in detail the harrowing ordeals of 45 survivors, including 26 men, 12 women and 7 children,

Security forces in Iran used rape and other forms of sexual violence to suppress last year protest after the murder of Mahsa Amini.
Amnesty International said in a new report published today. 

State agents raped women and girls vaginally, anally and orally, while men and boys were raped anally. Survivors were raped with wooden and metal batons, glass bottles, hosepipes, and/or agents’ sexual organs and fingers. Rape took place in detention facilities and police vans, as well as schools or residential buildings unlawfully repurposed as detention places.  
This is what exactly Hamas did to women in Israel on October 7 and we the people of Iran were the first ones who loudly condemned the savage brutality against Israeli women by Hamas terrorists. Because we especially the women of Iran know very well that the Islamic Republic and Hamas are cut from the same cloth and both use rape and torture of women as a weapon of war. 

Israeli Women and teenagers were gang-raped, beaten, tortured and murdered. 

Some were mutilated and set on fire, some had their lifeless bodies dragged around, spat on and beaten by wild and ecstatic crowds celebrating the “victory” of Hamas.

The horrifying images of these atrocities —  filmed by the terrorists themselves — have been seen around the whole world.

In Iran we faced the same brutality. Last year after the killings of more than 700 innocent protesters and imprisonment of more than 20,000, many young teenagers  told us that they faced raped in prison. We had many young protesters committed suicide after being free from jail.

For many years now I have been campaigning for women of Iran and Afghanistan, calling attention to their suffering under Islamic fundamentalism. 

Iranian women and their Afghan sisters have long felt that their voices go unheard in the West. 

Today, it is our Israeli sisters that have been raped by the same barbaric terrorists.

Whether it is the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Islamic Republic in Iran, or Hamas-Isis in Israel, we must collectively condemn the atrocities perpetrated against women in the name of this Islam. 

We must stand together to resist and eliminate this violence against all women everywhere — no matter where in the world it raises its ugly head.

My message to Western Feminists: Do not abandon your sisters in the Middle East. Stand up to Islamist terror.
#TogetherWeAreStronger

 

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Bevo

Bevo 13870

Posted
Posted

 

I assume Great Britain will step up to the plate and go after the Iranian supported Houthi rebels. Then maybe the US will follow. It seems to be a trend. The administration shows force and acts tough but takes no offensive action until its hand is forced.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90641

Posted
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1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I assume Great Britain will step up to the plate and go after the Iranian supported Houthi rebels. Then maybe the US will follow. It seems to be a trend. The administration shows force and acts tough but takes no offensive action until its hand is forced.

USS Carney is racking up quite the drone/missile count. Houthis are using online ship tracking sites to go after ships they think have Israeli ties.

I'm betting we are not far off from some cruise missiles finding there way into Houthi launch sites.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/politics/uss-carney-red-sea/index.html

Quote

The USS Carney responded Monday to a distress call from a commercial vessel after it was attacked by “multiple projectiles” in the southern Red Sea, a US military official said.

The merchant vessel Swan Atlantic was attacked at roughly 9 a.m. Sanaa time, the official said. More information regarding what kind of projectiles were launched and from where was not immediately available, though the attack follows a string of others in recent days by Houthi forces, who are funded and trained by Iran, on commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Quote

The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack on the Swan Atlantic later on Monday. The group claimed it attacked another ship as well and that both ships were linked to Israel, and that the ships’ crews refused to respond to calls from the Houthis. The Houthis also said that “no harm will be dealt” to ships heading to ports around the world, “except for Israeli ports.”

The ship’s owner, Inventor Chemical Tankers, said in a release there is “no Israeli link in the ownership (Norwegian), technical management (Singapore) of the vessel, nor in any parts of the logistical chain for the cargo transported.”

Quote

“We note that information provider Marine Traffic has wrongfully claimed that the vessel is managed by an ‘Israel affiliated company’ on their web site. This is believed to be the reason for her having been targeted now on her southward passage through the Red Sea. This is incorrect,” ICT said.

The attack came as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is in the region for meetings with senior Israeli officials in Tel Aviv amid ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Quote

Houthi forces in Yemen have been targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea, claiming the attacks as revenge against Israel. Oil giant BP announced Monday that it would pause all shipments through the Red Sea due to the “deteriorating security situation,” marking the latest shipping firm pausing routes through the channel.

Quote

CNN has reported that the US is considering beefing up protections for commercial ships around the vital shipping route, according to military officials, with members of the Combined Maritime Forces – a multi-national naval task force charged with protecting commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

The discussions about bolstering the task force reflect growing concern in the region over the Iran-backed Houthis’ interference in the Red Sea through which millions of barrels of oil passes daily. US officials have said publicly that discussions have centered on the possibility of escorting ships operating in the Red Sea and through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait into the Gulf of Aden — the narrow channel that separates Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

 

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Bevo

Bevo 13870

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

USS Carney is racking up quite the drone/missile count. Houthis are using online ship tracking sites to go after ships they think have Israeli ties.

I'm betting we are not far off from some cruise missiles finding there way into Houthi launch sites.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/18/politics/uss-carney-red-sea/index.html

Probably, correct. We don't want the war in Israel to escalate to include Iran. Israel can't fight Iran alone. So, Iran isn't going to happen. Attacking any Iranian proxy is fine as Iran doesn't give a damn about its proxies. So launching some million dollar cruise missiles to take out some small Houthi launch sites is totally on brand. And it is the right move as long as the goal is to keep the war from escalating. However, if the goal is to stop the attacks, then the right move is to go after something that Iran cares about.

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