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What's happening in Iran?

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MagicSoccerSpray

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19 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I’m feeling like this might actually do something.  It’s not slowing down, and the regime is creating more martyrs, and they seem to be losing entire areas.

 

It is definitely encouraging, but they need weapons. The regime will not fall by itself and won't be persuaded by demonstrations alone.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

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5 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

It is definitely encouraging, but they need weapons. The regime will not fall by itself and won't be persuaded by demonstrations alone.

There’s plenty of weapons. They just need to convince those with them there is no future supporting the regime with them.

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Superhero

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So… what happens when the regime is overthrown? Where will all this energy go? Will there be a power vacuum? And who will fill it.

I haven’t heard of any type of leader emerging and that is what’s making me nervous. Someone with a gun will take advantage of the chaos, and that person or group may not be any better than the current regime. 

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atomheartbevo

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28 minutes ago, Superhero said:

So… what happens when the regime is overthrown? Where will all this energy go? Will there be a power vacuum? And who will fill it.

I haven’t heard of any type of leader emerging and that is what’s making me nervous. Someone with a gun will take advantage of the chaos, and that person or group may not be any better than the current regime. 

Many of the middle and lower classes are in a world of shit right now, so anybody coming to power is going to have to please them.

Doesn't quite answer your question, and it is disturbing that no figure has risen for them to coalesce around, but the regime is making sure that doesn’t happen.

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atomheartbevo

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Government straight up killing Iranians in Sanandaj   Apparently another dead Iranian teen girl was killed, and Iranian forces are going at the protestors with heavy weaponry, and not just pistols or rifles.

Follow this, but no translations and lots of violence

https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sanandaj?src=hashtag_click&f=live

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atomheartbevo

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8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Very interesting that the military has not been called out. Are the leaders nervous they turn on the mullahs? These are their sisters and mothers protesting this time. 

87 million people, and the standing army is around 360,000, with almost half conscripts.   I’m guessing maybe they don’t want to fuck around and find out just how loyal the conscripts are.

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Brisketexan

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

87 million people, and the standing army is around 360,000, with almost half conscripts.   I’m guessing maybe they don’t want to fuck around and find out just how loyal the conscripts are.

Makes me damn curious as to the thoughts/calculations going on behind the scenes.  The IRG SHOULD be loyal to the regime.....but if the regime has doubts?  That's interesting.

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atomheartbevo

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6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Makes me damn curious as to the thoughts/calculations going on behind the scenes.  The IRG SHOULD be loyal to the regime.....but if the regime has doubts?  That's interesting.

We are just a few days away from the one month anniversary of Mahsa Amini‘s death, so I’d expect things to really pick up.

What’s  interesting is that the refinery protests are in their third day, and are tied heavily to wage problems, so that’s another aspect of this thing spreading beyond her death and the unrest with the Kurds.  Supposedly the government sent tanks into Kurdish areas, but that’s dumb as hell without supporting infantry - a simple Molotov cocktail tossed out of an upper window can stop a tank if it gets into the engine area.

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InkaUtexas

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11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Makes me damn curious as to the thoughts/calculations going on behind the scenes.  The IRG SHOULD be loyal to the regime.....but if the regime has doubts?  That's interesting.

Should be is the key here. They have not been deployed. The Mullahs have deployed conscripts in the past. Why not this time? 

Also, how many of their core hardline believers are in Syria? At one point there was a shitload, but finding Syria news is not as easy as it was. 

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WhatTheBuck

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On 10/12/2022 at 7:00 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Apparently the security forces are just beating and killing people without questioning, which means they are scared shitless and are outmanned.

Im kind of feeling more optimistic that this might just succeed.

What would success look like? That the regime just decides to let women wear their hijab loosely? That they eliminate the morality police? That they depose the Ayatollah and put an end to theocratic rule?

I’m betting that none of that happens. I’ll bet that a lot more protesters will get killed as the regime cracks down on them even harder. If there are any loosening of restrictions, they will be only temporary. And in the end nothing will change.

Hasn’t that always been the pattern in the past?

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Brisketexan

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28 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

What would success look like? That the regime just decides to let women wear their hijab loosely? That they eliminate the morality police? That they depose the Ayatollah and put an end to theocratic rule?

I’m betting that none of that happens. I’ll bet that a lot more protesters will get killed as the regime cracks down on them even harder. If there are any loosening of restrictions, they will be only temporary. And in the end nothing will change.

Hasn’t that always been the pattern in the past?

That's still the most likely outcome, but there are some cracks showing.  We'll see.

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

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22 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

What would success look like? That the regime just decides to let women wear their hijab loosely? That they eliminate the morality police? That they depose the Ayatollah and put an end to theocratic rule?

I’m betting that none of that happens. I’ll bet that a lot more protesters will get killed as the regime cracks down on them even harder. If there are any loosening of restrictions, they will be only temporary. And in the end nothing will change.

Hasn’t that always been the pattern in the past?

Expand your horizon a bit. Thinking that change isn’t possible, or even inevitable, when a population rises up and says enough is enough seems a bit ignorant.

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atomheartbevo

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13 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Expand your horizon a bit. Thinking that change isn’t possible, or even inevitable, when a population rises up and says enough is enough seems a bit ignorant.

It’s 2022, and many have the Internet, and they can look at what other people in other countries have.

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WhatTheBuck

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4 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Expand your horizon a bit. Thinking that change isn’t possible, or even inevitable, when a population rises up and says enough is enough seems a bit ignorant.

Ignorant? I’m not ignorant of the history of the Islamic Republican of Iran. Far from it. It’s all happened during my lifetime so I’ve witnessed that history firsthand. I’m not saying I’m against change. I’m all for it. I’d like to see all the changes I mentioned happen. It’s just that history tells me they probably won’t. That’s not ignorance, that’s just playing the odds.

Expand my horizons? What a silly thing to say. The thing about religious conservatives is that they’re extremely reluctant to abandon their orthodoxy. I’d like if the Christian Right in Am would acknowledge that homosexuality isn’t a choice and gay teachers aren’t trying to turn their children gay. Because you can’t turn someone gay anymore than you can pray the gay away? Do you think that’s likely to ever happen? Am I ignorant and not expanding my horizons if I tell you that’s probably never going to happen? They’re the ones who need to expand their horizons (and their minds), not I.

Religious hardliners actually believe the shit they say they do. And they’re firmly in charge in Iran. 

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DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

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5 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Ignorant? I’m not ignorant of the history of the Islamic Republican of Iran. Far from it. It’s all happened during my lifetime so I’ve witnessed that history firsthand. I’m not saying I’m against change. I’m all for it. I’d like to see all the changes I mentioned happen. It’s just that history tells me they probably won’t. That’s not ignorance, that’s just playing the odds.

Expand my horizons? What a silly thing to say. The thing about religious conservatives is that they’re extremely reluctant to abandon their orthodoxy. I’d like if the Christian Right in Am would acknowledge that homosexuality isn’t a choice and gay teachers aren’t trying to turn their children gay. Because you can’t turn someone gay anymore than you can pray the gay away? Do you think that’s likely to ever happen? Am I ignorant and not expanding my horizons if I tell you that’s probably never going to happen? They’re the ones who need to expand their horizons (and their minds), not I.

Religious hardliners actually believe the shit they say they do. And they’re firmly in charge in Iran. 

They’re firmly in charge? Lol. The entire country is open revolt. 

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elfenix

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all things considered quick interview reza aslan on parallels between the current times and the 1905 revolution

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/14/1129223029/how-protests-in-iran-are-similar-to-the-constitutional-revolution-of-1906

 

and aslan's piece in time

https://time.com/6220776/ranian-peoples-100-year-struggle-for-freedom/

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Macklemore

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Agree with @Brisketexan that the mullahs, their cronies and their terror agents need to be killed/forced to flee the country for there to be true regime change. It's discouraging to see that a leader hasn't emerged to rally behind. Reza Pahlavi is weak, ineffective and isn't willing to put his neck on the line. Masih Alinejad is fearless but need someone in the country and not be in exile. Basij burning their membership cards is big. They need to take their weapons and turn them on their leaders.

 

 

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atomheartbevo

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1 minute ago, Macklemore said:

It's discouraging to see that a leader hasn't emerged to rally behind.

The flip side to that is that it appears to be making it harder for the regime to counter the protests, since they don’t know who to strike down (kind of a hydra problem, lop one head off, two more reappear), and because there is not one person they can strike down, harder to kill the movement.  All the while the movement has clearly been able to stay active and loosely organized over the internet (even if it’s confined to only people in Iran talking to one another).

Not having one person as a figurehead does make it harder to envision a tipping point/critical mass, but given the duration of this thing, how far it has spread, and how it’s spread beyond women pissed off about dumbass clothing rules, it feels like we may have already had it happen.

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