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8 hours ago, Pimphand said:

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That QBR is worse than it would've been had Arnold just spiked the ball into the turf every single snap. 

Also, General Booty had a QBR of around 6 last Saturday. That's more than 4 times greater than Arnold, and we all saw just how awful Booty was wire to wire. 

It's about time ou faced this nightmare. 

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4 hours ago, statsman said:

I think you’re forgetting (or have suppressed) Blake Bell in 2013. Against Texas: 26-12, 133 yards (longest was 47), 0 TDs, 2 picks. Four sacks. 

My point was that there have been other candidates for worse QB performance. For me, Bell wasn't as bad as the others, but add it the pile.

 

4 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Former #1 player in Texas as recruit and gets benched for a true freshman. Damn.

Like every other mismanaged situation, why wouldn't Venables keep Auburn guessing until GameDay? 

What @Constant said above. Anyone with eyes can tell Hawkins was a better decision-maker as true freshman, especially the most important constituency, the players. Gaslighting them throughout the week could FURTHER denigrate confidence in the offensive coaching. Plus, the players seem to like Hawkins more.

Hawkins recklessness means there's a good chance Arnold sees the field again this year, but the coaches need to take his helmet away and send him to therapy this week.

3 hours ago, honolulu horn said:

It's about time ou faced this nightmare. 

There were some positives for OU that game. Obviously, the defensive performance showed that OU's good early season performances could be replicated versus top-flight athletes. They rotated a bunch of players in and held up well against a really good team. It's proof of concept that the defense can keep up with some of the best offenses in the country. And the Sooners play several of the best offenses in the country: Texas, Mississippi, LSU, Alabama (possibly Missouri).

The OL was awful, but they performed about to my expectations. The rs-freshman left guard Ozeta played like someone facing his first big test. He'll get better. The OL looks like they may be getting a little healthier too. Hawkins time on the field showed that OU can move the ball against a good defense despite the OL when the QB makes good reads.

OU's skill position talent may have started sorting itself out also. The freshman RB Tatum looked good, and got hurt. Sophomore WR Jaquaize Pettaway did some good things. You can see the outlines of a functional RB rotation in Barnes and Tatum. Burks, Anderson, and Pettaway give OU a functional pass catching core (when they all get healthy).

Because of the defensive excellence, the offense just needs to get healthy and show competency. OU's goal is to be competitive in every game and get four more wins (@ Auburn, SCar, Maine, @ LSU?). Then clean house on the offensive coaching staff after the season.

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Seth Littrell

"It starts with me. I have to find better ways to put them in situations to be successful. Too many mistakes. We have to bounce back," offensive coordinator Seth Littrell said on the Sooner Football show with Brent Venables.

The Sooners tried everything, including benching Jackson Arnold for true freshman Michael Hawkins. Luckily for Sooners fans, Littrell is offering optimism that should make fans feel a bit better.

“I think it’s very easily fixable. Just turn on the tape and watch it," Littrell said after the game at the podium. "I’m looking for a guy [quarterback] who can manage the game and can execute at a high level… But it starts with me…”

 

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WRT Hawkins’ performance. Yes, he led two TD drives. No, he was not running an offense. Klatt noted that, in the second half, OU abandoned the run game and balance, and just asked Hawkins to play hero ball against a Vol defense playing to keep everything in front of them. 
 
You can try to build on that. You’ll have something like the John Chiles offense of 2007 Texas or Jerrod Heard of 2014. 

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11 hours ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Former #1 player in Texas as recruit and gets benched for a true freshman. Damn.

Like every other mismanaged situation, why wouldn't Venables keep Auburn guessing until GameDay? 

IMO, you do that to keep your credibility.  And to manage the locker room.  Arnold clearly stinks.  Hawkins gave them a spark.  If we can see it, the players can see it.  Hawkins needs all the snaps with the 1st team this week.

That said, this could also be fool's gold in that they both could suck.  Hawkins entered the game with 1:40 left in the 2nd, down 19-3.  OU did nothing meaningful on offense until mid-Q4.  Drives of 6, 5, 21, and 5 yards preceded the first meaningful drive of 68 yards (TD) that completed at 8:30 left in Q4.  For reference, OU had 222 yards of total offense.  63% of that came in Q4, when Tennessee's 2nd and 3rd team defense was likely in the game.

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23 minutes ago, Longboard Horn said:

Hawkins definitely isn't another Caleb Williams. He'll probably struggle some against Auburn. Wouldn't be surprised if he starts for Red River, but also wouldn't be surprised if Arnold got the starting job back. 

I would. 
Arnold isn’t coming back next year. His NIL hit is too big, and he’s not taking a cut. OU won’t put all their QBing eggs in one basket again (I expect them to seek a new QB in the portal), and they’re not budgeted for two big NIL QBs. 
So, if he’s not coming back next year, what is his role this year? Frankly, I won’t be surprised if he leaves the team, as a mutual decision agreeable to both parties. 
Of course, I may be talking out my ass. A lot of this probably depends on how payments are scheduled. 
OU has screwed their QB position up like I have not seen in decades.  Letting Gabriel get away was a huge mistake, but the precursor, the original mistake, was assessing Arnold, and the OL, and deciding he was good enough to commit the 2024 season to. 

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9 hours ago, honolulu horn said:

That QBR is worse than it would've been had Arnold just spiked the ball into the turf every single snap. 

Also, General Booty had a QBR of around 6 last Saturday. That's more than 4 times greater than Arnold, and we all saw just how awful Booty was wire to wire. 

It's about time ou faced this nightmare. 

I think that’s ESPN QBR, which is some mystery voodoo that ESPN uses that goes 0-100. I don’t think there’s a baseline for all incompletions, especially if it’s influenced by things like fumbles. 

Passer rating is the one that everybody knows - has been around a long time, used in the NFL, goes up to 158.3 with ~100 being good, and equaling 39.58 if a QB throws all completions. 
 

There’s also NCAA passing efficiency, which is the one only used in college that you’ll see sometimes go up to the 200s for really good QBs. 
 

It’s confusing. 

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16 minutes ago, statsman said:

I would. 
Arnold isn’t coming back next year. His NIL hit is too big, and he’s not taking a cut. OU won’t put all their QBing eggs in one basket again (I expect them to seek a new QB in the portal), and they’re not budgeted for two big NIL QBs. 
So, if he’s not coming back next year, what is his role this year? Frankly, I won’t be surprised if he leaves the team, as a mutual decision agreeable to both parties. 
Of course, I may be talking out my ass. A lot of this probably depends on how payments are scheduled. 
OU has screwed their QB position up like I have not seen in decades. 

Yeah, I haven't watched much of OU this season, but from everything I've read it seems like Arnold is done at OU like Garrett Gilbert was done at Texas early in the 2011 season.  

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15 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Not buying the hype that OU's defense is "elite". They gave up 300+ yards in a pillow fight vs. UH, who subsequently got shut out by Cincy this past Saturday. Venables is very familiar with Tennessee's offensive style, and when your offense is absolute dogshit and no threat to score, the opponent tends to play it safer on offense. 

Auburn has trouble moving the ball forward, so I hope and expect the OU defense to have another good day. I welcome the talk and hype of OU's defense vs. Texas' offense heading into Dallas. 

Tennessee's 1st road game with a freshmen QB. After they got up 20-3, Heupel took his foot off the gas and ran the ball and played defense. He protected his QB against sillly TOs that could have help OU, instead forcing their shitty offense to try to score.

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8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I hope we get an insider longform article one day about the disastrous situation with Arnold. What a huge fuckup by Venables, but I guess you can give him a little credit for cutting the cord quickly. 

 

Sounds like an Espn 30 for 30... The "rise" and fall of Venables

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19 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I think Caleb Williams comparisons should be few and far between. The only things they have in common are above average speed, they’re black and they played, at least for a bit, at OU. 

And Hawkins isn't sus. He doesn't paint his nails or have a foot fetish like Caleb. 

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14 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I hope we get an insider longform article one day about the disastrous situation with Arnold. What a huge fuckup by Venables, but I guess you can give him a little credit for cutting the cord quickly. 

 

He saw it work out in the game with Rattler and Williams.  Problem is this kid isn't Williams.  With game film, teams will shut him down.  Then what?  You pissed off your top player, went all in on a hail mary for a freshman who isn't going to magically fix all the offensive problems and stands the real possibility of getting hurt.  It's the same problem atm has with Reed.  A mobile player comes in, makes a few plays and now they're the anointed one.....but when they struggle, you can't just go back to the guys you benched and expect them to have any answers

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26 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

5) If you want a “sure thing” when it comes to landing a QB in the portal, you better have some serious bank set aside to land that dude. At least Texas or USC could point to actual corporate money that gets spent on their QBs. OU’s hit would be almost completely with the collective, and that creates a ripple effect and other choices. 

Far be it from me to quibble with you, but I think you’re severely underestimating the economic allure of Indian casinos and legal cannabis products. Is it possible you have not visited the state of Oklahoma recently?

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32 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I think Caleb Williams comparisons should be few and far between. The only things they have in common are above average speed, they’re black and they played, at least for a bit, at OU. 

Hawkins isn’t an uber athlete with an amazing whip. He looks like a twitchy improviser who can make some chicken salad out of chicken shit when the pocket breaks down. He’s not going to read a defense and then go to work like a surgeon, especially as a true freshman. 

 

I’m of the same mind as South Austin. I assume the family is already negotiating with a new suitor chasing fool’s gold. 

To be clear though, statsman, the story is funnier than “letting Gabriel get away”. The Arnolds pushed for assurances and more money and made Venables make a choice. OU told Gabriel to hit the bricks. They made a choice. Their media mouthpieces, their $9.95ers and even Gabriel shared their versions of that story this offseason. Some of these buffoons like Plank and Ikard were almost gleeful in welcoming the dawn of The Age of Arnold while yeah-yeah-yeahing the kicking to the curb of an excellent and proven college QB. 

As to the portal and such for a new QB, well, we’ll see. There are bunch of issues with that premise:

1) If Hawkins does okay this year, they’re risking losing him if they go shopping. 

2) If Hawkins does okay this year, they’re going to have to pay him too. 

3) We don’t know what a new OC is going to want to do. 

4) QB portaling is seriously hit or miss and extremely high risk. 

5) If you want a “sure thing” when it comes to landing a QB in the portal, you better have some serious bank set aside to land that dude. At least Texas or USC could point to actual corporate money that gets spent on their QBs. OU’s hit would be almost completely with the collective, and that creates a ripple effect and other choices. 

To all those portal issues with QB shopping, add:

6) Who in their right mind is going to want to play in that system? Disregarding the money for a minute, it's one thing for Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray to come play in Lincoln Riley's video game heisman trophy offense. It's quite another to sign up for the Seth Littrell experience behind an iffy (and I'm being generous here) offensive line. Who is going to invest their NFL future in that? Their best bet for immediate success is to hire a new coordinator who has a transfer QB attached to him, like Lebby and Gabriel.

I don't think time is necessarily on Venables side here, despite the contract extension. He went 6-7 in year 1 with the worst OU loss ever in the RRS. Last year he got fat at 10-3 on a shitastic schedule. They are only going to be favored against Auburn and Maine, and maybe South Carolina the rest of the way. So that puts them at 6 wins plus a bowl game? That ain't gonna cut it at a place that won 14 conference titles between 2000 - 2020. I can't see him having longer than next year to figure it out, and the schedule is going to be just as brutal.

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

 

To be clear though, statsman, the story is funnier than “letting Gabriel get away”. The Arnolds pushed for assurances and more money and made Venables make a choice. OU told Gabriel to hit the bricks. They made a choice. Their media mouthpieces, their $9.95ers and even Gabriel shared their versions of that story this offseason. Some of these buffoons like Plank and Ikard were almost gleeful in welcoming the dawn of The Age of Arnold while yeah-yeah-yeahing the kicking to the curb of an excellent and proven college QB. 

That's interesting if accurate as I pretty much assumed Gabriel saw what was coming from an OL perspective (with a concussion injury history) + Lebby leaving (the only reason DG went to OU) and was perfectly content playing in a better offense for what I assume was a bigger payday.  If Venables watched Arnold all last fall and made the choice to roll with him then OU really is in trouble.

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3 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Seth Littrell

"It starts with me. I have to find better ways to put them in situations to be successful. Too many mistakes. We have to bounce back," offensive coordinator Seth Littrell said on the Sooner Football show with Brent Venables.

The Sooners tried everything, including benching Jackson Arnold for true freshman Michael Hawkins. Luckily for Sooners fans, Littrell is offering optimism that should make fans feel a bit better.

“I think it’s very easily fixable. Just turn on the tape and watch it," Littrell said after the game at the podium. "I’m looking for a guy [quarterback] who can manage the game and can execute at a high level… But it starts with me…”

 

 

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On the Sooner boards, they’re taking the long view- they want to hire a young, innovative up-and-comer at OC to fix the offense. 
 
Which is hilarious. There are no sure things there. Sure thing OCs take new jobs as HCs, not OCs. The kind of OC you can hire is more like Tim Beck, Sterlin Gilbert, Kendall Briles. That’s just how things are now. They hired Riley in 2015 and made him HC in 2017. 
 
Or, they can hire an up-and-coming position coach as OC, which is a gamble. 
 
The end for all these “what if we…” decision trees end up at the same place- “Make a list of HC candidates “

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1 hour ago, statsman said:

Far be it from me to quibble with you, but I think you’re severely underestimating the economic allure of Indian casinos and legal cannabis products. Is it possible you have not visited the state of Oklahoma recently?

The statewide vote to legalize recreational weed failed in every county. The med-mari business is in severe decline. When it comes to weed, Tokelahoma ain't what it's cracked up to be. Most chalk the decline up to the competition: The meth market is a tough nut to crack. 

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Several of you already mentioned some of this, but I will summarize:
Caleb Williams was a 5* QB with a 99 rating from 247.  Plus, he had coaching from the likes of Riley and Cale Gundy. And he was the #2 QB prospect behind Ewers.  #8 overall.
Hawkins is a 3-4* QB with an 82 rating from 247.  #20 QB and #297 overall.  And he jumped from #35 to #20 late in the recuiting cycle it appears.  He's coached by Littrell and Joe Jon Finley.

HUGE advantage: WIlliams.

The similarities between Williams and Hawkins are superficial, as indicated in many of your posts.


 

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46 minutes ago, Skipper said:

That's interesting if accurate as I pretty much assumed Gabriel saw what was coming from an OL perspective (with a concussion injury history) + Lebby leaving (the only reason DG went to OU) and was perfectly content playing in a better offense for what I assume was a bigger payday.  If Venables watched Arnold all last fall and made the choice to roll with him then OU really is in trouble.

Thing is, Venables had gametime analysis on Arnold in the Alamo Bowl, where JA posted a QBR of 58.6, with 2 TDs and 3 INTs to Arizona.  That he never turned the corner through practices or spring ball is telling.

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14 hours ago, Constant said:

It would be a disservice to the team to keep Arnold in when he hasn’t done two things right in a row all season. I don’t like how our offense is structured, but if the RPO is going to be a significant part of it, the QB needs to give when there’s a light box and throw when there’s a heavy box. Simple stuff. Arnold seems incapable of correctly counting defenders in the box.

For example, he pulled this and threw an incompletion:

IMG_7675.thumb.jpeg.80192c7d01cdfaa738d0b9ead733c33b.jpeg

Holy shit, dude. 

Nope. Dude needs 12 more starts.

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1 hour ago, Gravy Train said:

Thing is, Venables had gametime analysis on Arnold in the Alamo Bowl, where JA posted a QBR of 58.6, with 2 TDs and 3 INTs to Arizona.  That he never turned the corner through practices or spring ball is telling.

Also on that game, they had a patchwork OL and a brand new QB but were getting like 7 ypc on that ground.  So, what does the OC dial up.  Pass play after pass play for 3 INT's.  

The offensive staff is stunningly bad and if BV wants to stay HC, he's going to need to stop with Friends & Family at that spot.

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SIAP but Joel Klatt had nothing good to say about OU’s offense. He described the film as the worst he’s watched in a long time – maybe 4 or 5 years, possibly his entire career.

“Sooner fans, this will not get fixed with Michael Hawkins as your quarterback.”

Segment starts at 17:50.

 

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In Venables’ press conference, he offers his slant on the Gabriel departure. Conveniently, it exonerates the Sooner coaches. He says Gabriel opted out of the bowl, hoping to go to the draft, and decided to transfer after his draft grade. (My memory is that everyone knew that 2024 was the wrong draft for all but the best prospects, and Gabriel wasn’t one of them). IMG_3357.thumb.jpeg.c0b608b56bdd1a35dca09204c0942457.jpeg

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25 minutes ago, statsman said:

In Venables’ press conference, he offers his slant on the Gabriel departure. Conveniently, it exonerates the Sooner coaches. He says Gabriel opted out of the bowl, hoping to go to the draft, and decided to transfer after his draft grade. (My memory is that everyone knew that 2024 was the wrong draft for all but the best prospects, and Gabriel wasn’t one of them). IMG_3357.thumb.jpeg.c0b608b56bdd1a35dca09204c0942457.jpeg

I suppose Oregon is closer to Hawaii than Oklahoma or UCF

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So OU is moving a backup CB to WR this week out of desperation. Of course, Venables isn’t framing it that way, and why would he?, but his comments are still classically over the top and unnecessary:

"He's not a good receiver.; he's fantastic," Venables said. "He looked really, really good tonight. For a guy who hasn't been working that for a while, he was really, really good…. You know me — anybody that knows me, I don't really sunshine pump. That's not me. I try to use my words carefully, and so anyway, he was actually out there with them and running routes and looked really good and natural, as much as anything." 

Right. This is slow-motion train wreck shit at this point. 

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