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The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread


TrashMaster G

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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/coaches-poll-top-25-michigan-ahead-of-alabama-ohio-state-in-preseason-college-football-rankings/

 

Preseason Coaches Poll

  1. Georgia (61)
  2. Michigan
  3. Alabama (4)
  4. Ohio State (1)
  5. LSU
  6. USC
  7. Penn State
  8. Florida State
  9. Clemson
  10. Tennessee
  11. Washington
  12. Texas
  13. Notre Dame
  14. Utah
  15. Oregon
  16. TCU
  17. Kansas State
  18. Oregon State
  19. Oklahoma
  20. North Carolina
  21. Wisconsin
  22. Ole Miss
  23. Tulane
  24. Texas Tech
  25. Texas A&M

Others receiving votes: Iowa 169; South Carolina 89; Florida 63; UTSA 59; Pittsburgh 52; UCLA 42; Kentucky 34; Baylor 28; Troy 25; Arkansas 20; NC State 19; Fresno State 19; Boise State 18; Auburn 18; Minnesota 16; Miami 16; Mississippi State 13; Oklahoma State 12; Missouri 11; Maryland 10; SMU 8; South Alabama 8; Illinois 7; Wake Forest 6; Air Force 6; Toledo 5; Washington State 4; Houston 3; Duke 2; Brigham Young 2; Arizona 2; Memphis 1; Kansas 1; James Madison 1

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Texas is #14

College football rankings: Joel Klatt's preseason top 25

 

14. Texas

"I love their roster. Their defense is much better than you would expect. They return 10 starters on the offensive side. You have to replace Bijan Robinson, but this is an offense that should move the ball. They have really good wide receivers. I think Quinn Ewers is a heck of a player … Should they win the Big 12? Yeah, they really should. The biggest question is how they play in tight games. The close-game issues have been a problem. They are 4-10 in one-score games under Steve Sarkisian. They were 14-13 in those same games under Tom Herman. All five loses last year were by seven points or less, including Alabama. This team, if they can just get over that hump … win the close games. Don't play down the level of competition."

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/college-football/college-football-rankings-joel-klatts-preseason-top-25

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Donno how Florida got votes

Pretty funny leaving aggy at 25 so they can possibly keep them around to be "ranked" for the Bammer game.

Gonna be tough for them to get though Miami, Auburn, and Arkansas though.

They will be 2-3 going into the Bama game so probably won't be able to stay ranked.

hilarious how this is on their schedule

 

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I'm going to post a couple of threads over the next month regarding Bama, one being a mudhole thread. That considered, I just can't pass this shit up. Every preseason magazine has them top 4 or better and now the coaches poll does as well. "They just reload." And, well, they always have. They've also continued to recruit really well, at least in terms of how they're ranked. 
That all considered, this is the same age in career in which Bobby Bowden's program began a surprising backslide. In hindsight, you can see it easily now, but not in 2001. Cracks had started to show and then things started to break.
Saban, this season, has hired a guy in Kevin Steele that he's never wanted to be his DC. He went with someone he can push around. He brought in a decent OC from ND to go back to running the ball and throwing to TEs, playing "murderball", which is great if you can just outtalent and out-tough everyone.
Meanwhile, Bama has to replace something like 16 starters, including the leader on both sides of the ball. They have shit at WR, a hodgepodge of hype but nothing dynamic at TB, a mystery at QB, mediocrity in a transfer from Maryland at TE and questions across the OL.
Defensively, Turner had a shit year last season, quietly. Oatis will be awesom in the interior DL, but the rest of the guys are unproven or underperforming their ranking. They have McKinstry and true freshman talent in the secondary, and a bunch of questions in the back 7. They're ranked highly because it's Nick Saban's Alabama, not because there's a ton to love looking at the depth chart or schedule. 

I don’t know how they are getting first place votes. I’d have a difficult time slotting them outside the top 10 because they do get some degree of benefit of the doubt being who they are, and they can still out talent most of college football, but there are a lot of unknowns.

Whatever becomes of their QB position, it probably isn’t going to be Bryce Young level, without whom they’d have been an 8-win team last year. I don’t follow them closely and assume they have reloaded to some degree, but is the rest of the team going to be so much better that they can downgrade significantly at QB and still be what they weren’t last year - a CFP team? Not sure I buy that.
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A few other teams that are living off of brand in some form - LSU and Ohio State. 

At LSU, Daniels is a damned good QB, but can he play another fully healthy season being their leading rusher? He pretty much has to do so. If he goes down, there isn't anything to lean on offensively besides high quality tackles. Nabors put up numbers but, if you watched the games, he wouldn't scare you. The other WRs are either unproven or dogshit. Taylor shows promise at TE but he's not electric. The OL interior has questions and the TBs suck. 

Defensively, Perkins has been deemed "the best defensive player in college football" by multiple sources. He blew up Arkansas, to be sure. He had a great freshman season. Now, he's a known entity and will be a gameplanning focal point. They get Maason Smith back at DT and Wingo is an excellent NT. Their edges leave plenty to be desired. They're starting Ovie, for Christ's sake. Outside of Perkins, they're starting an Oregon State transfer and a SELA transfer at LB. Burns was benched last year and he's the starter at one safety spot. They've got a true freshman starting at CB in Toviano. Some dude from Syracuse at the other safety spot. The D will be good, but it's thin and has question marks.

Everyone in the media has them winning the west or being right there for it. Their schedule isn't easy. Basically @FSU (Orlando), @ both Miss schools, @ Mizzou, and @ Bama. Then they have two weird nonconference games that I wouldn't want on the schedule - Army (no fucking thank you) and Georgia State and their weird offense. They both of those games ahead of important opponents (Army, then off week, then Bama; GSU then ATM).

LSU could go 7-5 or 10-2 in the regular season. If Daniels gets hurt, what then? Russ Nussmeier to the rescue? Okay. 

----

Regarding Ohio State, I'll spare the thread and keyboard too much verbiage. They've got great WRs and TBs. They have questions, significant questions, on the OL and at QB. They have an elite or damned good player at every level of the defense, but the guys around those guys have question marks. The defense collapsed at the close of last season when finally challenged. They play @ ND, @ Wiscy, and also get @ Purdue and Minnesota from the west, which is a tough draw, collectively (missing Iowa is good, missing Nebraska, NW, and Illinois is bad). They have to go to The Big House.

Anyway, that's your #4 team in the country? Day is like 34-6 as a HC, so I know it foolish to doubt the program. Just seems like there are some cracks in the facade for these guys too. 

Obviously between Bama, LSU and Ohio State, it's probably more likely that all 3 finish in the top 10 than none of them finish in the top 10, but what would you pick to be the most likely out of all in, none in, 2 in - 1 out, or 1 in - 2 out? This could be a year where NIL and portal work create more parity than expected, impacting these teams specifically.

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Fuck it, one more. 

Penn State. Franklin gets the benefit of the doubt every season and I don't see how he's earned it. They haven't shown the ability to beat OSU or Michigan lately. Call that 0-2. Everyone is crowning Allar the next QB star. I've watched the dude. I can see that. But he'll be in his first year with a tough schedule. They're strong on the OL and at TB, so maybe that helps, but a first year QB is going to try to lose you a game or too. The other skill spots aren't elite. 

Defensively, Manny Diaz is the DC. It's usually several years into a stint when his unit starts to show up confused and soft. This could be it. That said, their defense is pretty fucking stacked and is a top 10 group, if not top 5. So, will Diaz fuck it up? I have to lean that way. 

If PSU goes 0-2 against OSU and Michigan, and Allar and Diaz cost them a game each, that's an 8-4 team dressed in 11-1 clothing. 

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I'm going to post a couple of threads over the next month regarding Bama, one being a mudhole thread. That considered, I just can't pass this shit up. Every preseason magazine has them top 4 or better and now the coaches poll does as well. "They just reload." And, well, they always have. They've also continued to recruit really well, at least in terms of how they're ranked. 

That all considered, this is the same age in career in which Bobby Bowden's program began a surprising backslide. In hindsight, you can see it easily now, but not in 2001. Cracks had started to show and then things started to break.

Saban, this season, has hired a guy in Kevin Steele that he's never wanted to be his DC. He went with someone he can push around. He brought in a decent OC from ND to go back to running the ball and throwing to TEs, playing "murderball", which is great if you can just outtalent and out-tough everyone.

Meanwhile, Bama has to replace something like 16 starters, including the leader on both sides of the ball. They have shit at WR, a hodgepodge of hype but nothing dynamic at TB, a mystery at QB, mediocrity in a transfer from Maryland at TE and questions across the OL.

Defensively, Turner had a shit year last season, quietly. Oatis will be awesom in the interior DL, but the rest of the guys are unproven or underperforming their ranking. They have McKinstry and true freshman talent in the secondary, and a bunch of questions in the back 7. They're ranked highly because it's Nick Saban's Alabama, not because there's a ton to love looking at the depth chart or schedule. 

Man, I hope we beat them in "title-town." The shitshow that would follow would be of Biblical proportions. Then, if Seven-win Steve lives up to his/your mantra, it all would happen again. This all aligns every narrative too perfectly. Let's just hope Texas beats Bama and then proves to everyone it wasn't a fluke or solely because of the slow collapse of Saban's ivory tower.

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1 hour ago, Frank Drebin said:

TCU should not be ranked.  They lost a ton.  Their portal adds were largely highly ranked busts.    Texas is about right.

I disagree...  Scipio Tex said the 8 returning starters on defense for the toads makes it one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They should start the season in the Top 25.

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9 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

I disagree...  Scipio Tex said the 8 returning starters on defense for the toads makes it one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They should start the season in the Top 25.

After what i saw of their defense against Georgia, i don't think that's much of a good thing.

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6 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

I disagree...  Scipio Tex said the 8 returning starters on defense for the toads makes it one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They should start the season in the Top 25.

TCU is going to be hammered dogshit on offense. Kendal Briles isn't bringing any mysteries to the table for Big 12 defenses. The interior OL, a strength last season, needs to be rebuilt. They lost good to elite WRs and replace them with JAGs. They have a JAG who couldn't cut it at Texas at TE. Their backfield is mediocre. Chandler Morris is getting hype for unknown reasons. They have a bunch of formerly highly regarded players on offense. Even if they "click", that means they'll maybe be serviceable. 

People forget what a difference a good to great college QB can do for a program. The falloff from Duggan to Morris will be precipitous, and I type that knowing that Morris was the starter before being hurt last year.

Defensively, the CBs were a strength. They lose Tomlinson to the NFL and he was a big part of their attitude. They lost 4 starters, 3 of whom were drafted. They replace those guys with unknowns or transfers. They return 7 starters. The NT is a fucking stud. Newton is a stud at CB. They are going to have a good defense. Will it be elite? You have to believe that TCU is at the "reload" level to think "elite" given the talent lost. 

I think TCU will play a lot of 27-20 games in a league known for grueling parity. The ball bounced their very experienced way for the first 12 games of the season and against Michigan. I don't see all of that happening again. TCU looks a lot like a team that finishes the season outside of the top 25 with something like an 8-5/7-6 record. 

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16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

I will spoiler my thoughts for the tl;dr crowd. 

  Reveal hidden contents

I'm a lot better at negging teams than building them up when I read about them and/or watch them. Mostly, it's more fun as a fan doing it that way, to me, at least. So realize that when you see my posts on other teams and then look at what I actually think is a decent top 10, because several that I hated on will still be listed. 

1) Georgia - Cakewalk schedule, NFL OL, star NFL-level dynamic TE, loaded defense. They get a lot of default credit as an offense, but there are chinks in that armor. Bobo is bum who was hired via hubris by his college roommate. The TBs get a lot of credit in the magazines, but I don't see it. Highly rated, sure, but they're not amazing. They play behind an amazing line, sure. I wouldn't trade their WRs for ours. The guy from Mizzou was effectively told by Mizzou that he wouldn't be the featured WR this season, so he left. I saw McJaggey getting NFL draft talk somewhere. GTFO. The hyphen guy is okay but nothing scary. Bowers is a fucking beast. Muschamp and Smart running Smart's defense is over the top. 

2) Michigan - McCarthy is excellent. The TBs are excellent in tandem. They have a high caliber OL. They have a solid young TE. Their WRs aren't going to scare anyone. Defensively, they're going to take a step back. Heavy losses on the DL and in the secondary, but they return all starters and good backups at LB. Their schedule is a fucking embarrassment. 

3) Florida State - If they beat LSU, I think they can still lose to Clemson make the playoffs. They have high quality talent at QB, TB, and WR. They return 3 All ACC OLs and a 3 year starter from Colorado on the OL. They return serious talent across the board on defense and added quality starting transfers to fill holes. The schedule is LSU basically at home, @ Clemson and a shit ton of ACC mediocrity finished with @ UF, who is down still. They basically need to show up for two games all year and win at least one of them.

4) USC - People are sleeping on the Pac 12 this year. There are 6 high quality teams in the league (USC, UCLA, OSU, Oregon, UW, Utah) and USC might be the best of them. They'll be one of the best offenses in the country. They're still going to be soft on defense, but they were damned close last year to that not mattering and it might be the same this year. That said, their schedule is fucking tough from game 6 (Arizona) onward. Arizona, @ ND, Utah, @ Cal, UW, @ Oregon, UCLA without an off week (other than Cal) is a tough run.

5) Washington - People will laugh. They have a stacked WR room, a star QB, two good tackles and a great offensive scheme. They return a ton on defense, including multiple large Pacific islanders. The coach is damned good. The Pac 12 is going to beat each other up, so maybe none of these Pac teams finish better than 10-3, but several of them are good enough to be a playoff team.

6) Ohio State - All of my earlier negging aside, they have amazing skill talent on offense, dynamic guys at key spots on defense, and, potential pedophilia proclivities aside, Day is an excellent QB coach so that open question probably gets answered well. They'll beat the shit out of ND and handle the schedule, as they always do, before apparently collapsing against UM. 

7) Texas

8 ) Utah - Another tough Pac 12 team. If Rising is back and healthy, which they're saying he is, they'll be experienced and tough. They have elite WR and TE talent and a strong OL. They return a ton on defense and they're tough as leather. I think they'll handle UF and then win @ Baylor. When that happens, the hype train is off and running. You know they can beat USC. They'd also have to handle UCLA, @ UW, and Oregon, so, tough duty. 

9) Iowa - I can hear the cackling. They avoid UM and Ohio State. They return one of the best defenses in the country. The special teams is always excellent. I don't even need to worry about whether their OL, TEs and TBs will be solid. Cade McNamara is the best QB they'll have had there in years. They have a very manageable schedule, albeit away games at PSU and Wiscy will not be fun. Nebraska beat them in Iowa City last year, so they'll be a problem to end it. That said, I could see Iowa being 11-1 and playing Michigan for a playoff spot. 

10) Alabama - They're deeper than LSU and LSU is one injury away at QB from being a .500 team. The schedule is tough but it's Saban, so I'm lazily picking them. 

Fuck Clemson and their whiteboy awesome backfield, they never have great OLs, and their WRs scare no one. I already picked Iowa in the top 10 as my defense first choice selection.

K State would require me believing in Will Howard and I don't.

I cited why I think LSU and Penn State shouldn't be in the top 10. 

Notre Dame doesn't have the dogs, Hartman won't be enough, and I am not convinced Freeman has it all figured out yet. 

I got tired of picking Pac 12 teams so Bo Nix and Chip Kelly can go fuck themselves. 

I will believe Joe Milton is viable QB for a top 10 team when I see it. 

I thought about picking UTSA since they're loaded with a star QB, just for grins, but their non conference schedule includes Tennessee and Neyland is a tough place to pull off that kind of upset. If they lose one game, they're not making a top 10. 

 

Definitely not laughing but I was starting to think I was crazy for being so high on Washington. Most rankings analytics have them high teens or in the 20s but I like what they are doing up there. Top of the PAC is going to send that conference out with a bang.

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14 hours ago, closetojumping said:

4) USC - People are sleeping on the Pac 12 this year. There are 6 high quality teams in the league (USC, UCLA, OSU, Oregon, UW, Utah) and USC might be the best of them. They'll be one of the best offenses in the country. They're still going to be soft on defense, but they were damned close last year to that not mattering and it might be the same this year. That said, their schedule is fucking tough from game 6 (Arizona) onward. Arizona, @ ND, Utah, @ Cal, UW, @ Oregon, UCLA without an off week (other than Cal) is a tough run.

 

You're trusting that defense? 

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Just now, closetojumping said:

I wrote that I was picking them in spite of defense and that’s your takeaway? 

OU went to two playoff appearances with roughly the same team makeup as this USC team. 

I skimmed it

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4 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Tech will need a bowl win, or they will finish on a two-game losing streak.

and just like that, you skip our trip to Jerry World.

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Quote

I'm a lot better at negging everything than building them up when I read about them and/or watch them. Mostly, it's more fun to me doing it that way, to me, at least.

fify

I'll take users accidentally describing their actual personality for 1000, Alex.

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2 minutes ago, 66BUFF said:

Is this list the top 13?

Where is Florida (2006,2008), Florida State (2013), Auburn (2010) and USC (2003)?

I think it's a four year trailing average, which should give an approximate roster strength, especially pre-portal

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2 minutes ago, 66BUFF said:

Is this list the top 13?

Where is Florida (2006,2008), Florida State (2013), Auburn (2010) and USC (2003)?

Those are teams that are currently in the top 13 in 4-year composite recruiting rankings. I’m assuming, without checking, that USC, UF, FSU, and Auburn are currently outside of that mark. 

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