The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread

[immamac 44353]

5 minutes ago, blutow said:

Oregon is probably more likely to win out than Washington.  I think there is a >50% chance there will be 2 unbeatens out of MU/OSO, GA, and FSU.  Assuming that happens and we win out, it will be a 1 loss beauty contest for the remaining 2 spots.  Our resume would have us in the mix, but far from guaranteed.  We really need both Washington and Oregon to lose a game prior to CCG and we need Alabama to keep winning.  If Bama wins out and beats Georgia in CCG, it would be really hard to leave out a 1 loss Texas when Bama would certainly be in.  

The rematch would be insane ratings. 

[JBJ 3827]

29 minutes ago, blutow said:

Oregon is probably more likely to win out than Washington.  I think there is a >50% chance there will be 2 unbeatens out of MU/OSO, GA, and FSU.  Assuming that happens and we win out, it will be a 1 loss beauty contest for the remaining 2 spots.  Our resume would have us in the mix, but far from guaranteed.  We really need both Washington and Oregon to lose a game prior to CCG and we need Alabama to keep winning.  If Bama wins out and beats Georgia in CCG, it would be really hard to leave out a 1 loss Texas when Bama would certainly be in.  

The odds of a TD favorite across 5 games winning all 5 is only 20%.  FSU is the only team that will be over a TD favorite in their remaining games.  Every other team is near or below a 20% chance to win out.  It wouldn't be crazy to see 2 undefeateds, but it's certainly not a good bet.

We do this every year.  There's like 13 reasonable contenders at this point of the season and close to all of them (9-12) will lose a game.   All you really have to do is not lose for a virtually guaranteed CFP spot.

[Js1 87183]

5 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The odds of a TD favorite across 5 games winning all 5 is only 20%.  FSU is the only team that will be over a TD favorite in their remaining games.  Every other team is near or below a 20% chance to win out.  It wouldn't be crazy to see 2 undefeateds, but it's certainly not a good bet.

We do this every year.  There's like 13 reasonable contenders at this point of the season and close to all of them (9-12) will lose a game.   All you really have to do is not lose for a virtually guaranteed CFP spot.

Serious. The last month of the season is usually bonkers. 

[The Dog 44861]

few things IMHO:

We get in over Bama all other things being equal. Road win at their place.

We have a common opponent with Oregon in Texas Tech. Oregon struggled in Lubbock earlier this year so if we pound Tech then there's an argument in our favor should it come down to Oregon/Texas for a spot.  Utah also had a close win on the road against Baylor so that's two Pac 12 teams struggling with Big 12 dregs on the road. Works against their argument as to the depth of the conference IMHO. 

Of course we have to win out for any of that to matter but that's how I see it.

As for the undefeateds:

Ohio St/Michigan will take care of itself obviously. Michigan has to play Penn State on the road this weekend so they could already have a loss before that game.

Washington cannot lose a game due to their strength of schedule. They also play a very backloaded schedule with USC and Oregon State both on the road. They should beat USC as the rubbers have lost to every team with a pulse but that Oregon State game is going to be tough. There's also a likely rematch with Oregon.

See also Georgia for a backloaded schedule. They've beaten nobody and are trading on past successes. They're still good so winning out is likely even if they play Alabama. 

Florida St has the best chance to win out on paper but they have two big rivalry games left - Miami and Florida. Both are coached by idiots but at least Miami has the players.

So we may have an undefeated Georgia with a bunch of 1 loss teams arguing over three spots.

[ITHorn 919]

This isn't an exact science, but hopefully this will calm down all of the "sky is falling UT is screwed" crowd. Texas is at 96% chance to make the CFP if we win out. 

Playoff Scenario Predictor

[blutow 238]

16 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The odds of a TD favorite across 5 games winning all 5 is only 20%.  FSU is the only team that will be over a TD favorite in their remaining games.  Every other team is near or below a 20% chance to win out.  It wouldn't be crazy to see 2 undefeateds, but it's certainly not a good bet.

We do this every year.  There's like 13 reasonable contenders at this point of the season and close to all of them (9-12) will lose a game.   All you really have to do is not lose for a virtually guaranteed CFP spot.

You are talking about the odds of an individual team going undefeated, not the odds that of having 2 undefeated teams.  I haven't look at odds on individual games going forward, just going off history.  Having 2 undefeated teams in the playoffs is a reasonable 50/50 bet.  In the last several years - 

2022 - 2 undefeated

2021 - 1 undefeated

2020 - 2 undefeated

2019 - 3 undefeated

2018 - 3 undefeated

Far from certain, but looking at the teams remaining and who that have to play, it's still say that is > 50% chance there are a couple undefeated teams at the end of regular season. 

  

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1314]

1 hour ago, conVINCEd said:

They would need to score a point against Iowa in the CCG.

The rules let them keep playing overtimes until they finally get that point, so it's more of a formality.

[blutow 238]

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We get in over Bama all other things being equal. Road win at their place.

Winning the head to head (early in the season) is far from a guarantee given the potential circumstances.  If they were coming off a CCG win over undefeated Georgia, they'd have a nice fresh win against a top ~3 team and their only loss would be early in the season against a highly ranked Texas team.  And our loss to OU isn't aging well and could get worse.  We'll have no wins against top teams late in the season, our resume is primarily Alabama in game 2.  The committee is all about "body of work", I think they'd pick Bama.  That said, I think it's doubtful Bama wins out.  Again, just win the games and we are 90% in, but not guaranteed in my opinion.  

[JBJ 3827]

6 minutes ago, blutow said:

You are talking about the odds of an individual team going undefeated, not the odds that of having 2 undefeated teams.  I haven't look at odds on individual games going forward, just going off history.  Having 2 undefeated teams in the playoffs is a reasonable 50/50 bet.  In the last several years - 

2022 - 2 undefeated

2021 - 1 undefeated

2020 - 2 undefeated

2019 - 3 undefeated

2018 - 3 undefeated

Far from certain, but looking at the teams remaining and who that have to play, it's still say that is > 50% chance there are a couple undefeated teams at the end of regular season. 

  

No.  I'm talking about this season.  5 teams with a ~20% chance to win out each.  With that as a given, the odds 2 or more undefeateds is 26%.  If you want to bump FSU to 50% chance to win out, then those odds rise to 39%.

Of course, two of those teams also play each other, so the odds are a fair bit worse than that.

[blutow 238]

Sark was already lobbying the committee in his press conference today, making the case that Texas has the best win in college football this year.  Nice to see a coach pushing the message early and often, Mack was too soft about that stuff.      

Already got picked up by ESPN, CBS, etc.  https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38780889/steve-sarkisian-makes-texas-cfp-case-ahead-first-rankings

[Pancho 46309]

Listening to some XM radio and podcasts this morning, and they are already propping up Oregon as the #1 1-loss team because of how they look. 

 

[texifornia 59016]

1 hour ago, blutow said:

Sark was already lobbying the committee in his press conference today, making the case that Texas has the best win in college football this year.  Nice to see a coach pushing the message early and often, Mack was too soft about that stuff.      

Already got picked up by ESPN, CBS, etc.  https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38780889/steve-sarkisian-makes-texas-cfp-case-ahead-first-rankings

Oh I don't know, Cal fans still complain about Mack's lobbying back in the day

[jimmyjazz 47201]

11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Listening to some XM radio and podcasts this morning, and they are already propping up Oregon as the #1 1-loss team because of how they look. 

Their loss is slightly less damaging than our loss.  Their best win is slightly worse than our best win.  I can see any particular person going either way on that call.

[Tex Long 4663]

13 minutes ago, Pancho said:

... Oregon as the #1 1-loss team because of how they look. 

 

Well, gotta admit Phil Nike gives 'em some sharpish threads, and that's a fact.

We need to wear stormtroopers with orange helmets for TCU, orange pants and shoes at ISU, and blackout for Tech. 

[Pancho 46309]

15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Their loss is slightly less damaging than our loss.  Their best win is slightly worse than our best win.  I can see any particular person going either way on that call.

That’s the thing—they aren’t going by your metric of which loss is worse or better. They are going by how Oregon just looks. 

 

 

 

[LTtxfan 50005]

 

[jimmyjazz 47201]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

That’s the thing—they aren’t going by your metric of which loss is worse or better. They are going by how Oregon just looks. 

I don't give a damn what "they" are looking at -- others look at it differently.  That was my only point.

[Pancho 46309]

46 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't give a damn what "they" are looking at -- others look at it differently.  That was my only point.

You forgot this gif when posting that:

[jimmyjazz 47201]

Zing!

[Lhorn 5094]

2 hours ago, texifornia said:

Oh I don't know, Cal fans still complain about Mack's lobbying back in the day

Tell me about it.  My FIL is a die hard Cal guy and never mentions it, but my wife won’t let me forget that her Dad will never get to see Cal in the Rose Bowl because of Texas. 

[Grande Mart 533]

23 minutes ago, Lhorn said:

Tell me about it.  My FIL is a die hard Cal guy and never mentions it, but my wife won’t let me forget that her Dad will never get to see Cal in the Rose Bowl because of Texas. 

Well, Cal shouldn't have gotten their ass spanked by Tech in the Holiday bowl that year if they wanted to have a legitimate argument that they got screwed over.

[LonghornBreeder 550]

25 minutes ago, Lhorn said:

Tell me about it.  My FIL is a die hard Cal guy and never mentions it, but my wife won’t let me forget that her Dad will never get to see Cal in the Rose Bowl because of Texas. 

[Sandbagging Steve 982]

9 hours ago, ITHorn said:

This isn't an exact science, but hopefully this will calm down all of the "sky is falling UT is screwed" crowd. Texas is at 96% chance to make the CFP if we win out. 

Playoff Scenario Predictor

According to this predictor:

1. Only one-loss Georgia would get in over a one-loss Texas. Alabama is our equal at 96%.

2. Washington can't afford a loss.

3. Oregon's chances are already way below a one-loss Texas. I know the rankings today. I'm just stating the percentages. And today's AP is not tomorrow's CFP rankings or December's playoff rankings.

3. One-loss Michigan loses out to one-loss Texas.

4. For some reason, an undefeated tOSU that loses the conference championship game against a scrub team is only 2% lower than a one-loss Texas with a Big 12 title and a better overall resume.

5. Florida State can't afford a loss.

Playoff Spots:

1. Michigan OR tOSU

2. Georgia OR Alabama (tie)

3. FSU (undefeated)

Washington would have to go undefeated and I don't see that happening with their schedule. 

My biggest concern is Texas going undefeated, especially with a backup QB. Take care of business and everything else will fall into place. I understand the thread is about the polls, but this isn't a Texas team that blows out opponents from the get-go. 

 

 

 

[Nothing To Add 81]

The correct answer, no matter the question, is always fuck ou.

Never want them to win.

[totallynotabuttpirate 5484]

12 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

....but this isn't a Texas team that blows out opponents from the get-go. 

 

 

 

Bro, this team is scary good. 

[gmr548 16701]

Listening to some XM radio and podcasts this morning, and they are already propping up Oregon as the #1 1-loss team because of how they look. 
 

Oregon does look a bit better than Texas. You probably give Texas the resume nod as of today but that may very well tilt toward Oregon as well if both wind up 12-1. Lot of football between now and then though.

[Hagbard Celine 11254]

On 10/29/2023 at 10:10 PM, closetojumping said:

Name the last one. Seriously, without looking it up, tell us what the fuck you are talking about and not in your bizarre star trek code. 

Darmok and Jalad on the ocean

[Hagbard Celine 11254]

14 hours ago, immamac said:

Michigan can drop PSU and beat OSU and still get in I think. 

meatchicken at pedder is a noon game

if it was a night game it would be a contest

what i've seen of pedder is not competitive with harbaugh signs or not

[Hagbard Celine 11254]

6 hours ago, texifornia said:

Oh I don't know, Cal fans still complain about Mack's lobbying back in the day

don't make me post the syntex takedown

[ITHorn 919]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Oregon does look a bit better than Texas. You probably give Texas the resume nod as of today but that may very well tilt toward Oregon as well if both wind up 12-1. Lot of football between now and then though.

Tech game will be a huge opportunity to not only win, but throttle a team who had Oregon on the ropes late. 

[troph 25227]

Not to be bill in sinton too much but fuck we need to win these next few with MM as QB1. 

[Js1 87183]

8 hours ago, troph said:

Not to be bill in sinton too much but fuck we need to win out

fify

[ztejas 44227]

I'd be shocked if Washington wins out. If they drop a couple then that Oregon loss looks a bit worse. 

I'd also be fairly surprised if Oregon doesn't win out - but if they don't - then I think that may take the PAC out of it as I think UW will likely be 11-1 and I doubt they beat Oregon again in a potential rematch. 

FSU has not been good on the road but I don't think Pitt is good enough to actually beat them. Miami is meh - they probably don't get FSU in Tallahassee. The one you circle for FSU is the the game in Gainesville to end the season - and they will likely play someone that at least has a pulse in the ACC title game. 

A one loss FSU will not have a very good resume and I think it's very unlikely they'd get in over a one loss Texas or P12 champ.

The wild card scenario that the P12 and ACC probably doesn't want to happen is an 11-1 Bama beating a 12-0 UGA in Atlanta. But I can't remember if there's precedent for two one loss teams from the same conference making it over a P5 one loss conference champion. Someone can maybe help me out there. 

Gun to my head I think Texas drops one of the next four and wins in Arlington. Say we run the table - the biggest danger is Oregon and FSU both winning out. If that doesn't happen 12-1 Texas will have a very, very good chance of making it in - especially if OU wins out and we avenge that loss.

For Washington to get in over us I think they'd need to beat Oregon twice and I don't see that happening. 

Michigan or tOSU at 11-1 isn't getting in over 12-1 Texas, nor would both UW and UO at 12-1. Georgia at 12-1 isn't getting in over 12-1 Texas because we'd have a win over the one team they lost to - but some dickhead on ESPN will assuredly make some dumb argument for them.

I also don't think we would necessarily need to beat OU in the B12TG. If Okie Lite wins out they'd be close to a top 10 team and that would be a very good resume boosting win.

[Js1 87183]

This is a fun tool for playing with W/L scenarios for standings:

https://playoffpredictors.com/CFBFootball/Big12?L=IwhMpSvGK4JxgsY7xSpnFPQgBiOJNLPKA

 

[Tex Long 4663]

Follow the Bob Stoops 2008 plan: win out, win big. Winning out with backup QB may be enough to take care of not winning big, but don't count on it. 

[UTEE97 3935]

Style points matter for an one-loss team to make it to the playoffs. We better figure out our "red area" woes and start blowing out some teams.

[LonghornSean 4103]

CFP ranking show starting now

[satyanash 15606]

Texas is #7... expected I suppose. Behind Oregon + unbeatens

[Sgt Hulk 14445]

Oregon and Washington would pass for 500 yards on us   The refs have called 2 holds all year on us. They’d rape our d line and our non existence secondary would get skull fucked 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Sgt Hulk

[Michael Knight 13223]

how the fuck is ohio state #1 ahead of Georgia and Michigan

[Js1 87183]

5 ranked Big 12 teams and 2 in the top ten (7 Texas, 9 OU, 21 Kansas, 22 Ok State, 23 KSU). Would rank KSU above OSU, personally. 

[Surly Bevo 25748]

4 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

how the fuck is ohio state #1 ahead of Georgia and Michigan

Georgia right now sports the 100th ranked schedule and Michigan the 111th ranked schedule.....that will change in coming weeks.  

[perfectchaos007 6780]

Lets take a moment to laugh at Texas Tech

 

 

 

[satyanash 15606]

[4th&Five 42005]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

5 ranked Big 12 teams and 2 in the top ten (7 Texas, 9 OU, 21 Kansas, 22 Ok State, 23 KSU). Would rank KSU above OSU, personally. 

Osu beat them head to head. 

[Js1 87183]

Ohio State has the best wins of the 3 (#15 ND and #11 PSU). Michigan has their chances soon (#11 PSU and #1 Ohio State). Same with UGA (#12 Mizzou, #10 Ole Miss, #17 Tenn). But both have played laughably bad schedules so far 

10 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

how the fuck is ohio state #1 ahead of Georgia and Michigan

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Js1

[Js1 87183]

Just now, 4th&Five said:

Osu beat them head to head. 

OSU also got blown out by South Alabama. Kansas State lost to OSU and a top 12 Mizzou. 

[Dewey 3331]

OSU winning in South Bend was always going to be the most overrated win on anyone's schedule, Penn State at home not too far behind. Their offense with that QB... There's 7, 8 teams with defenses who would handle them. 

Now it looks like a one loss OSU is still in. 

[Michael Knight 13223]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ohio State has the best wins of the 3 (#15 ND and #11 PSU). Michigan has their chances soon (#11 PSU and #1 Ohio State). Same with UGA (#12 Mizzou, #10 Ole Miss, #17 Tenn). But both have played laughably bad schedules so far 

 

Ohio State has looked like dog shit in those wins and their coach is uglier

[Michael Knight 13223]

On 10/30/2023 at 9:17 AM, blutow said:

Oregon is probably more likely to win out than Washington.  I think there is a >50% chance there will be 2 unbeatens out of MU/OSO, GA, and FSU.  Assuming that happens and we win out, it will be a 1 loss beauty contest for the remaining 2 spots.  Our resume would have us in the mix, but far from guaranteed.  We really need both Washington and Oregon to lose a game prior to CCG and we need Alabama to keep winning.  If Bama wins out and beats Georgia in CCG, it would be really hard to leave out a 1 loss Texas when Bama would certainly be in.  

are you ai or a foreigner, who the fuck are mu oso and ga?