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The Preseason Polls are F'n Stupid, But Here We Are Thread

TrashMaster G

By TrashMaster G
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TexEx15
TexEx15

Win the fucking Big 12 first and foremost. 

closetojumping
closetojumping

I'm going to post a couple of threads over the next month regarding Bama, one being a mudhole thread. That considered, I just can't pass this shit up. Every preseason magazine has them top 4 or better

Js1
Js1

OU needs to always lose. Losing to a terrible 5-7 Charlie Strong team in 2015 didn’t stop a 1 loss Big 12 champion OU from the playoffs. Fuck OU forever and ever. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49161

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How Well Does Preseason CFB Coaches Poll Predict Success?

Story by Robert Read •22h

Let the debate begin.

USA Today released its annual preseason college football coaches poll on Monday. Georgia, the winner of the last two national championships, is ranked No. 1. Michigan, Alabama, Ohio State and LSU round out the top five.

This marks the second time since USA Today started administering the poll in 1991 that the Bulldogs are the preseason favorites. The first time, in 2008, Georgia ended the season ranked 10th.

Preseason polling is a balance of weighing how good a team was the previous year with how it might perform in the upcoming season. Fans might not put much stock in their favorite team being ranked highly (or not at all). Which begs the question: How good are coaches at predicting, through their ballots, which teams will be elite in a given year?

Here's what the numbers say recently:

Is preseason coaches poll good predictor?

College football adopted the College Football Playoff system for its postseason in 2014.

Since then, no team ranked seventh or lower in the preseason by the coaches has won the national championship. Ohio State (2014) and LSU (2019) won national championships after preseason No. 6 rankings. But oddly enough, only one preseason No. 1 team has gone on to win the national championship in the playoff era: Alabama in 2017.

The preseason rankings of the last nine national champions are as follows: Ohio State (No. 6 in 2014), Alabama (No. 3 in 2015), Clemson (No. 2 in 2016), Alabama (No. 1 in 2017), Clemson (No. 2 in 2018), LSU (No. 6 in 2019), Alabama (No. 3 in 2020) and Georgia (No. 5 in 2021 and No. 3 in 2022).

That is in line with historical trends. Since 1991, the coaches poll preseason No. 1s have gone on to be the top-ranked team after the postseason only four times, according to USA Today.

The coaches poll is conducted weekly throughout the college football season. A panel of head coaches at the Football Bowl Subdivision level is randomly selected each year to participate. According to USA Today, the panel is "chosen by random draw, conference by conference plus independents, from a pool of coaches who have indicated to the American Football Coaches Association their willingness to participate."

Out of the 66 coaches who voted this year, 61 picked Georgia first in the preseason poll.

Coaches preseason poll identifies playoff teams

There's usually quite a shake-up between the preseason coaches poll and the postseason coaches poll—especially in the top 10.

Over the last nine years, about half of the preseason top 10 failed to stay ranked that high by the end of the season. An average of 5.78 teams per season that were featured in the preseason top 10 of the poll made the final top 10 rankings.

While there tends to be movement at the top of the rankings throughout a season, the coaches usually have a good sense of what teams could make the playoff.

Twenty-nine of the 36 playoff teams over the last nine years have been in the top 10 of the preseason coaches poll. Of the seven teams that weren't, five were ranked between 11th and 20th in the preseason poll. In both of the past two College Football Playoffs, a team went from being unranked in the preseason to earning a spot in the top four: Michigan in 2021 and TCU in 2022.

----------------------------------------------

Preseason Coaches Poll Top 25

  1. Georgia (61 first-place votes)
  2. Michigan
  3. Alabama (4)
  4. Ohio State (1)
  5. LSU
  6. USC
  7. Penn State
  8. Florida State
  9. Clemson
  10. Tennessee
  11. Washington
  12. Texas
  13. Notre Dame
  14. Utah
  15. Oregon
  16. TCU
  17. Kansas State
  18. Oregon State
  19. Oklahoma
  20. North Carolina
  21. Wisconsin
  22. Ole Miss
  23. Tulane
  24. Texas Tech
  25. Texas A&M

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6433

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this feels like as good a place to ask as any - would there be interest on this board in doing a weekly surly top 25 poll?  we did it on shaggy years ago and it was kind of fun.  if there are 12-15 people who would commit to sending in a ballot every week, i'd be happy to compile the results each week.

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Posted
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4 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

this feels like as good a place to ask as any - would there be interest on this board in doing a weekly surly top 25 poll?  we did it on shaggy years ago and it was kind of fun.  if there are 12-15 people who would commit to sending in a ballot every week, i'd be happy to compile the results each week.

I will only do it if there is public shaming involved...

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SarkAfterDark

SarkAfterDark 1688

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6 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

this feels like as good a place to ask as any - would there be interest on this board in doing a weekly surly top 25 poll?  we did it on shaggy years ago and it was kind of fun.  if there are 12-15 people who would commit to sending in a ballot every week, i'd be happy to compile the results each week.

I'm in.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
this feels like as good a place to ask as any - would there be interest on this board in doing a weekly surly top 25 poll?  we did it on shaggy years ago and it was kind of fun.  if there are 12-15 people who would commit to sending in a ballot every week, i'd be happy to compile the results each week.

In, especially for the kink shaming
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Welshy

Welshy 907

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8 hours ago, BigOrange1 said:

this feels like as good a place to ask as any - would there be interest on this board in doing a weekly surly top 25 poll?  we did it on shaggy years ago and it was kind of fun.  if there are 12-15 people who would commit to sending in a ballot every week, i'd be happy to compile the results each week.

IN.

Can we turn it into degenerate gambling? 10 for number 1 pick, 9 for 2, 8...End ranking minus your pick #1 team ends up #1 = 0. #10 team ends up #1 = 9, #1 team ends up #10, -9. Goal = smallest delta...

I'm no smarty, but I'd kick in $100.

Or just pick each week. :)

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flatdawgs

flatdawgs 1278

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Much as I enjoy seeing it, UW is too high. The schedule is a beating with @USC, Oregon, Utah, @Oregon State, along with an OOC jaunt to Michigan State and opening the season hosting Boise State.

(That said, as a season ticket holder I like a schedule with Boise State, Utah, Oregon, and the Apple Cup in Husky Stadium.)

So far DeBoer looks to have what it takes as a head coach, but it's only his 2nd season as a HC at this level, so we'll see. Still looking forward to it!

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Much as I enjoy seeing it, UW is too high. The schedule is a beating with @USC, Oregon, Utah, @Oregon State, along with an OOC jaunt to Michigan State and opening the season hosting Boise State.
(That said, as a season ticket holder I like a schedule with Boise State, Utah, Oregon, and the Apple Cup in Husky Stadium.)
So far DeBoer looks to have what it takes as a head coach, but it's only his 2nd season as a HC at this level, so we'll see. Still looking forward to it!

Having a tough schedule (and that OOC slate isn’t that bad) doesn’t mean they’re not a really good team. They probably will drop a couple conference games because I think the PAC is a league with 4-5 good to very good teams but no elite team, but I don’t think those are mutually exclusive. If #11 Washington goes on the road and loses a close, competitive to #6 USC, to me that’s a validation of their ranking and you don’t have to drop them for it.
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Pancho

Pancho 44754

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Klatt has us #14 in his preseason.

He says 14 isn't too high and he could make an argument we should be higher. The reason we aren't because we perpetually underachieve and he's waiting for us to do something. 

He likes the roster, likes the offense (should move the ball), and he believes we should win the B12. Biggest question is how we perform in tight games, and he wants to see us not play down to the level of our competition. 

 

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Wishbone

Wishbone 4759

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10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Klatt has us #14 in his preseason.

He says 14 isn't too high and he could make an argument we should be higher. The reason we aren't because we perpetually underachieve and he's waiting for us to do something. 

He likes the roster, likes the offense (should move the ball), and he believes we should win the B12. Biggest question is how we perform in tight games, and he wants to see us not play down to the level of our competition. 

 

Apparently Klatt feels like I (and a lot of others) do. I also believe we are going to see improvement in those areas of concern.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21839

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Much as I enjoy seeing it, UW is too high. The schedule is a beating with @USC, Oregon, Utah, @Oregon State, along with an OOC jaunt to Michigan State and opening the season hosting Boise State.
(That said, as a season ticket holder I like a schedule with Boise State, Utah, Oregon, and the Apple Cup in Husky Stadium.)
So far DeBoer looks to have what it takes as a head coach, but it's only his 2nd season as a HC at this level, so we'll see. Still looking forward to it!

At least you avoid another beat down by us
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CashMcCoy

CashMcCoy 3199

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Preseason AP

1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Ohio St
4 Alabama
5 LSU
6 USC
7 Penn St
8 Florida St
9 Clemson
10 Washington
11 Texas
12 Tennessee
13 Notre Dame
14 Utah
15 Oregon
16 Kansas St
17 TCU
18 Oregon St
19 Wisconsin
20 OU
21 UNC
22 Ole Miss
23 Texas A&M
24 Tulane
25 Iowa

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TexasMan

TexasMan 10891

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7 hours ago, CashMcCoy said:

Preseason AP

1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Ohio St
4 Alabama
5 LSU
6 USC
7 Penn St
8 Florida St
9 Clemson
10 Washington
11 Texas
12 Tennessee
13 Notre Dame
14 Utah
15 Oregon
16 Kansas St
17 TCU
18 Oregon St
19 Wisconsin
20 OU
21 UNC
22 Ole Miss
23 Texas A&M
24 Tulane
25 Iowa

A couple of particular fanbases need to shut the fuck up forever about "lol Texas sucked last year why are they preseason ranked?" That card has been revoked. 

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Fud

Fud 9552

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Pate's power ranking/model has Texas #6. FPI has Texas at #5 and SP+ has Texas at #9. These generally don't take things like injuries and coaching changes into account, so they're useful as a starting point, and then you can tinker and put your thumb on the scale after that

If you do a straight even weighted average of the three, the top twenty are

1) Georgia
1) Ohio State
3) Alabama
4) Michigan
5) LSU
6) Texas
7) Penn State
'8) USC
'8) Clemson
10) Tennessee
11) Oregon
12) Notre Dame
12) Florida State
14) Utah
15) OU
16) A&M
17) TCU
18) Ole Miss
19) Wisconsin
20) Washington

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8304

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Posted (edited)
On 8/12/2023 at 7:00 PM, Herpa Derpa said:

Georgia

The rest

This. If surly posters are shitting themselves about the backup at position ___ on this team, then Bama's starting qb is sure as fuck a question mark.

Edited by Bevo14
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Fud

Fud 9552

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30 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Between #10 and #12 seems right for a preseason ranking for Texas.  Keep improving as the season goes on and the Horns will move up in the Top 25.  

#5 to #9 is the correct range, imo 

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NeverMarryAStripper

NeverMarryAStripper 21889

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I remember the 1977 season when I was at UT.  I cut the AP poll out of the paper every week and had it thumbtacked to my wall.  We were unranked in the preseason poll.  We moved up to #18 after week one, #9 after week two, and #8 after week three. After week four, we jumped up to #5 and then to #2 after week six.  After week seven, we moved into the top slot and stayed there for the rest of the regular season.  This season feels like it's going to be like that to me: a steady move up the rankings.  Of course, I hope the post-season turns out a little better than it did that year.  Maybe a Heisman as well.

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Park Gothic

Park Gothic 5017

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Reddit's CFB sub does a preseason poll and has Texas at 14.

Untitled.thumb.png.b9b44fc56abb5c9b5881050f2c9d2bf8.png

https://old.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/15ya0rn/2023_preseason_rcfb_poll_1_georgia_2_michigan_3/

And before anyone points out that reddit's preseason poll is stupid...well, you're right. But I don't think it's that much dumber than the other preseason polls. They're all just fodder for conversation before the season starts and we actually have something to talk about. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49161

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On 8/16/2023 at 12:37 AM, LTtxfan said:

Since this is preseason stuff...

Kansas State as Big 12 CHAMPS?! Will a Big 12 team land in the CFP?! | College GameDay Podcast

 

Here's the ACC preseason version...

ACC Preview: Can FSU win the conference for the 1st time since 2014? | College Gameday Podcast

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21839

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Just now, LTtxfan said:

PAC12

 

The Pac is deeper this year than most I can remember, and easily the best QB conference in the country.  We probably sit at 6th in the preseason rank, and this may be our deepest team under Chip.  QB and DBs are the only real question marks this season.  

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62596

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17 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, ESPN folks have bruins at #6 in pac12

 

Screenshot_2023-08-22-16-25-51_kindlephoto-8563951.png.401603ade2335f546ff5b681619a8c8e.png

 

 

The border in the Pac 12 this year is basically between team 6 and team 7. Teams 1-6 could damned well finish in any order between them. UCLA is being discounted because they lose DTR, however Kelly seems to do well working with QBs. Beyond the top 6, I'd put Arizona and then Wazzou as distant potential bowl qualifiers. Cal is poo and the other 3 are whale shit at the bottom of the ocean.

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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On 8/12/2023 at 5:53 PM, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I don't think they finish top 4 in the big 12. Kind of hard to not put a team that played in the NCG into the top 25, though.

I mean, I think they are probably a back-end of the top 25 type team, but you saw the NCG right? Between that and who they lost, it's easy to leave them off.

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

The border in the Pac 12 this year is basically between team 6 and team 7. Teams 1-6 could damned well finish in any order between them. UCLA is being discounted because they lose DTR, however Kelly seems to do well working with QBs. Beyond the top 6, I'd put Arizona and then Wazzou as distant potential bowl qualifiers. Cal is poo and the other 3 are whale shit at the bottom of the ocean.

I think Cal could be sneaky competitive this year. Wouldn't surprise me to see them bite Auburn at home and be the best of the rest. But yeah, there's a very clear top half and bottom half out there. Going to be a wild season between lots of competitive games between the upper tier, and every single lower tier team being out for blood against USC/UCLA/UO/UW.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5792

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2 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Here's the ACC preseason version...

ACC Preview: Can FSU win the conference for the 1st time since 2014? | College Gameday Podcast

Can FSU win the ACC? Yes. Will they? No.

They're wrong about WR, Antonio Williams is legit, and Adam Randall is going to show out. CTJ doesn't like Shipley, but Mafah is Clemson's best RB and it's not even close. 

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