Surly Horns Weekly Top 25 Poll

[Reynolds Woodcock 4669]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So resume except for #1 except they can suck shit through a straw as long as they continue to beat their collection of lame and halt- got it. 
they might play exactly one ranked team- a suss Kentucky team, all year before the playoffs. Fuck that shit- they don’t deserve that ranking I’d they continue to look like @closetojumpingeoth his ass pressed against the mirror. 
Wasn’t trying to be a dick, just genuinely curious. 

That’s fine. But they also looked like complete shit against Missouri this exact same weekend last year. That team turned out ok. When you are the 2x champ, I’m willing to give some latitude. 

[JBJ 3649]

Meh.  They don't look nearly the same.  Everyone out here in Atlanta is doing the thing that we have for the past decade.  The "Just win" thing where everyone knows any week can be a loss and it's just a matter of when.

Edited October 1, 2023 by JBJ

[ztejas 43263]

26 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

That’s fine. But they also looked like complete shit against Missouri this exact same weekend last year. That team turned out ok. When you are the 2x champ, I’m willing to give some latitude. 

You have Georgia 1st and Michigan 25th (or 19th? I don't know. You keep changing it). That doesn't make any sense. Michigan has won back to back B10 titles and has kicked the dogshit out of everyone on their schedule. 

Edited October 1, 2023 by ztejas

[Reynolds Woodcock 4669]

3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

You have Georgia 1st and Michigan 25th (or 19th? I don't know. You keep changing it). That doesn't make any sense. Michigan has won back to back B10 titles and has kicked the dogshit out of everyone on their schedule. 

And promptly shit the bed in the playoffs. What Michigan has accomplished isn’t in the same universe as Georgia. And also, who gives a shit.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

1.       Texas- best schedule, best resume- best team I think

2.       Ohio State- Second best win- not second best team imo

3.       Florida State- 2^nd or 3^rd best resume

4.       Michigan- 2^nd best team if I had to guess, resume is lacking

5.       Washington- decent resume- best team in the Pac 12. Playoff team if 12-1

6.        Miami- win against aggy looking better on resume until aggy aggy’s.

7.       Oregon- not this good, but have reasonable resume and undefeated

8.       Penn State- beat a couple of OK teams decently- expect them to go 0-2 against daddy

9.       Georgia- doesn’t deserve to be this high based upon on field results- benefit of doubt here

10.   Washington State- some decently mid quality wins- this team is pretty good

11.   North Carolina- fighting Mack Browns keep on keeping on

12.   Bama- not as impressed with the Miss win as some. Won’t be all that impressed with 11-1

13.   Domers- good team.  1-1 against 2 good teams at the last minute.  Probably fair

14.   Oregon State- I knew Utah sucked- but good win anyway

15.   USC- if everyone was as soft as USC in bed Trojans wouldn’t need to exist

16.   Kentucky- haven’t played anyone- get Georgia- will jump to top 5 with a win

17.   Oklahoma- haven’t played anyone- get Texas- will jump to top 5 with a win

18.   Missouri- haven’t played anyone- get ????- will jump to top 5 with a win

19.   Duke- good squad. Elko going places imo

20.   Ole Miss- not bad. Not great. Funny game with LSU, why little bro against bama kiffy?

21.   Kansas state- decent team- not going to kill too much for 61 yard FG loss on road at gun

22.   Kansas- decent team- not going to kill too much for getting punked by Texas on road

23.   Wyoming- decent team- not going to kill too much for getting turbo’d by Texas in 4^th

24.   Utah- I need 25 teams in here- right? Their resume is still better than their team

25.   Clemson- their loss to FSU wasn’t bad.  I think Duke is a good team- they go 9-3 I bet

[BigOrange1 6422]

sorry it's late this week.  had an all day meeting today that started at 8:00am sharp.

Week 6

Rank	Team	Record	Points
1	Texas (5)	(5-0)	195
2	Washington	(5-0)	175
3	Ohio State	(5-0)	172
4	Michigan	(5-0)	166
5	Florida State (1)	(5-0)	165
6	Georgia (1)	(5-0)	160
7	Penn State	(5-0)	148
8	Oregon	(5-0)	144
9	USC	(5-0)	132
10	Alabama	(4-1)	120
11	Notre Dame	(4-1)	119
12	North Carolina	(5-0)	108
13	Oklahoma	(5-0)	107
14	Miami	(5-0)	98
15	Washington State	(5-0)	96
16	Duke	(4-1)	68
17	Kentucky	(5-0)	54
T18	Missouri	(5-0)	50
T18	Utah	(4-1)	50
20	Oregon State	(4-1)	47
21	Ole Miss	(4-1)	42
22	Louisville	(5-0)	26
23	Texas A&M	(4-1)	25
T24	Maryland	(5-0)	17
T24	Kansas State	(4-1)	17

 

Others receiving votes: Liberty (14), Kansas (13), Fresno State (12), Iowa (11), LSU (10), Wisconsion (8), Clemson (7), UCLA (7), Air Force (4), Tennessee (3), TCU (3), Rutgers (2), Wyoming (1)

[JBJ 3649]

Oklahoma at #2 - best resume

Texas down to #7 - It's not at all comforting that the model kept us #1 in power.  We actually pulled away from Michigan a bit, who had a really good game against Minnesota. 

The explanation is this: our defense struggled against OU so our defensive rating fell a bit, our offense vs their defense the model saw as a wash, but the defensive teams that we've played continue to play well and that is reinforcing how good our offense is in the model's eyes (Wyoming beat Fresno and held them to 19, Alabama beat A&M and held them to 20.  So we actually moved up a bit.

Georgia right behind us at #8 finally playing a decent team, and they actually looked like a good team this week.

Alabama #11 - offense is holding them out of the top 10, and it's not actually getting better, it's just that the defenses they play are getting worse.  Note that the offense moves up to #35 if you only count the games under Milroe, but they would still be #11 overall.

Kansas shows back up at #25.

Best 2-loss unranked team: aggy

Miraculously undefeated: Liberty

[gmr548 16504]

Didn’t get to this yesterday driving home from Dallas and didn’t watch any other ball games on Saturday so this is way more based off of score watching and general tier grouping than usual. A few general thoughts:

Georgia turned it in and reminded everyone why they get the benefit of the doubt, not that I thunk Kentucky was some great opponent (I didn’t have them ranked) but they rose to the moment.

In general I think you can put the top 5 and the. 6-11 in just about any order. I considered keeping Texas ranked over OU but I think OU earned the higher spot based on head to head for now. I have a feeling Texas is going to look like the better team by end of year but we’ll see.

12-20 is kind of a random hodgepodge based on head to heads and not knowing what to do with some teams. I didn’t knock Miami too hard for the knee thing. It was an extremely stupid call but it feels dumb to me to think they are a significant lot worse team just because they didn’t call a kneel down. I did drop them a bit for fucking around with GT.

UCLA and Wyoming enter the poll at the expense of Kansas State and Fresno State.


1.) Georgia
2.) Ohio State
3.) Florida State
4.) Washington
5.) Michigan
6.) Penn State
7.) Oregon
8.) Oklahoma
9.) Texas
10.) Alabama
11.) North Carolina
12.) Louisville
13.) Notre Dame
14.) USC
15.) Miami
16.) Ole Miss
17.) LSU
18.) Duke
19.) Washington State
20.) Oregon State
21.) Clemson
22.) Utah
23.) Kansas
24.) UCLA
25.) Wyoming

[BigOrange1 6422]

we didn't get a lot of participation this week coming off the loss.  hopefully that changes next week:

Rank	Team	Record	Points
1	Michigan (1)	(6-0)	94
2	Georgia (2)	(6-0)	93
3	Ohio State	(5-0)	88
4	Oklahoma (1)	(6-0)	86
5	Florida State	(5-0)	81
6	Washington	(5-0)	80
7	Penn State	(5-0)	79
8	Texas	(5-1)	72
9	Oregon	(5-0)	69
10	Lousiville	(6-0)	66
11	Alabama	(5-1)	65
12	North Carolina	(5-0)	61
13	USC	(6-0)	50
14	Ole Miss	(5-1)	44
15	Oregon State	(5-1)	36
16	Notre Dame	(5-2)	35
17	Duke	(4-1)	31
18	Utah	(4-1)	26
19	Washington State	(4-1)	20
20	UCLA	(4-1)	18
21	Kansas	(5-1)	17
22	Miami	(4-1)	14
23	Maryland	(5-1)	13
24	LSU	(4-2)	12
25	Air Force	(5-0)	11

 

Others receiving votes: Wyoming (9), Iowa (8), Kentucky (6), Clemson (5), Tennessee (4), Wisconsin (4), Texas A&M (2), Missouri (1)

[gmr548 16504]

Diving more into tiers this week, within each I view the teams as very closely grouped and think you could argue for plenty of different orders.

Tier 1 - These teams have the inside track to the CFP and have reason to believe they can compete at that level. 

1.) Georgia - this continues to be a BOTD ranking
2.) Ohio State - at some point we have to acknowledge that their defense appears to be quite good, right?
3.) Washington
4.) Oregon - might look weird to move them up with a loss but I view them as virtually tied with Washington, who I have had as top 5 for a little while. Despite taking a tough L yesterday I think their body of work is more consistent than FSU and unlike Michigan or Penn State they have actually been on the field with another good team.
5.) Florida State
6.) Michigan
7.) Oklahoma
8.) Texas
9.) Penn State - haven't played anyone and unlike Michigan and UGA they don't have recent pedigree to fall back on. It was a mistake having them ahead of OU and Texas before. We'll see what they are made of this week.
10.) North Carolina - maybe a little controversial to include them in this tier but they comfortably beat a pretty good Miami team despite having over 150+ yards in penalties. Mack Brown has won a lot of games with the combo of an elite QB and a strong pass rush and he appears to have that.

Tier 2 - Good teams who are not quite on the level of that first tier for whatever reason; a glaring flaw, inexplicable ugly loss, that sort of thing.

11.) Notre Dame - I continue to think this is actually a very good team but I have no idea wtf that Louisville loss was and I don't trust Freeman as a HC on game day.
12.) Alabama
13.) Oregon State - road loss to Wazzu was tough (and looking worse after Wazzu got demolished by UA) but this is a very solid team. They just don't have quite the ceiling of a roster full of blue chip recruits.
14.) Duke - basically a less athletic Alabama. Who had that comparison on their CFB bingo card to start the year?
15.) Ole Miss
16.) LSU
17.) USC - I've been short on them since early in the year and ND showed why. They can get Oregon or Washington in a shootout on a good day but they are just not a championship team on either LOS.

Tier 3 - Teams that can bite anyone on their best day but you start to see a very large gap between these guys and the best teams. 

18.) Clemson - debated putting them in Tier 2 but I am a seller on this group despite picking them for the CFP preseason. Late-Mack Texas vibes strong to quite strong.
19.) Utah - I think this was a potential Tier 1 team if not for all of their injury issues, headlined by Rising. Now I think it is too late for them to get going even if he did come back and without him they are DOA against Oregon and Washington. I'd be surprised if they beat USC but that is in the realm of possibility.
20.) Miami - I didn't drop them much with the kneel down thing but they were beaten comfortably by UNC. The win over aggy is losing its shine too.

Tier 4 - The thing about Top 25 polls is you have to include 25 teams. I think Kansas probably belongs in this group with Jalon Daniels but with it being so unclear when he'll be back you have to rank them on what's out there now.

21.) Louisville - just as I have no idea wtf ND's loss to this team was, I have no idea how the collapsed against a bad Pitt team. Clearly they have a decently high ceiling but that's a horrible loss.
22.) Missouri
23.) Kansas State - I have a feeling they are going to get their shit together on offense and roll into Austin 6-2. I don't think the defense is getting fixed this year though.
24.) UCLA - I had them ranked well below Oregon State and they lose a competitive game. I don't think that's a reason to drop them out.
25.) Tulane - Giving them the nod over undefeated Air Force from the G5 ranks. Nice win over Memphis and they were competitive with Ole Miss without their starting QB.

[ztejas 43263]

I hath returned.

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Florida State

5. Ohio State 

6. Oklahoma

7. Texas

8. Oregon

9. Penn State

10. Alabama

11. UNC

12. Ole Miss

13. Duke

14. Oregon State

15. Notre Dame

16. Utah

17. LSU

18. Missouri

19. UCLA

20. USC

21. Tennessee

22. Clemson

23. Air Force

24. Iowa

25. Oklahoma State

@BigOrange1 you don't need it emailed AND posted here, do you?

 

Edited October 15, 2023 by ztejas

[BigOrange1 6422]

i only count the ones that are emailed to me.

[ztejas 43263]

5 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

i only count the ones that are emailed to me.

K. Emailed.

[JBJ 3649]

 

Notable things:

1) There are no SEC teams in the top 10 of power ratings.  Maybe the first time ever.

2) Iowa and LSU are the only ranked teams with units in the bottom half (the Iowa offense and the LSU defense).

3) The B1G East teams have better odds to make the playoff than to win their division.  The Big 12 is the least likely to send a team, but it's basically even with the PAC and SEC.

4) Liberty and Georgia play about the same schedule in terms of difficulty.  At this point, Liberty is slightly more likely to go undefeated. 

5) Oklahoma is the most likely undefeated team.

6) No teams actually project to finish undefeated.  There's still a lot of season left.

 

[BigOrange1 6422]

A tie for 1st place!

Rank	Team	Record	Points
T1	Michigan (3)	(7-0)	160
T1	Washington (2)	(6-0)	160
3	Georgia (2)	(7-0)	159
4	Ohio State	(7-0)	155
5	Florida State	(6-0)	154
6	Oklahoma	(6-0)	146
7	Penn State	(6-0)	130
8	Texas	(5-1)	126
9	North Carolina	(6-0)	115
10	Oregon	(5-1)	112
11	Alabama	(5-1)	108
12	Oregon State	(6-1)	88
13	Duke	(5-1)	83
14	Ole Miss	(5-1)	81
15	Utah	(5-1)	79
16	Notre Dame	(6-2)	78
17	USC	(6-1)	53
18	Missouri	(6-1)	52
19	LSU	(5-2)	50
20	Louisville	(6-1)	42
21	Tennessee	(5-1)	30
22	Air Forice	(6-0)	27
T23	Iowa	(6-1)	15
T23	Clemson	(4-2)	15
25	UCLA	(4-2)	13

 

Others receiving votes: Tulane (12), Miami (6), Kansas State (5), Washington State (4), Rutgers (3), James Madison (2), Maryland (1), Oklahoma State (1), Fresno State (1)

[gmr548 16504]

Don't know if I got mine in in time to be counted. Did not catch much football this week outside of the second halves of Ohio State-Penn State and Oklahoma-UCF, and Texas going up 21-0 on Houston. Honestly I have no idea what to do with Texas given the Ewers situation. I kept them in place for now but I think it's possible this is a low-end top 25 team going forward. 

Pretty much entirely based on score watching. Have been impressed with Ohio State's defense this year and I went ahead an put them in the top spot with wins over PSU and ND. Rest of the top 10 stood pat and 10-25 shuffled around based on some H2H results and UNC's bad loss.

1.) Ohio State
2.) Georgia
3.) Washington
4.) Oregon
5.) Florida State
6.) Michigan
7.) Oklahoma
8.) Texas
9.) Penn State
10.) Notre Dame
11.) Alabama
12.) Oregon State
13.) Duke
14.) Ole Miss
15.) LSU
16.) North Carolina
17.) Utah
18.) Miami
19.) Clemson
20.) Missouri
21.) Kansas State
22.) USC
23.) Louisville
24.) UCLA
25.) Tulane

[BigOrange1 6422]

Here is Week 9.  I think it's a pretty solid poll with the exception that I think some of you have Penn State way too high.

Rank	Team	Record	Points
1	Florida State (2)	(7-0)	140
2	Ohio State (1)	(8-0)	137
3	Michigan (3)	(8-0)	136
4	Washington	(7-0)	134
5	Georgia	(7-0)	132
6	Oklahoma	(7-0)	125
7	Texas	(6-1)	115
T8	Alabama	(7-1)	105
T8	Oregon	(6-1)	105
10	Penn State	(6-1)	88
11	Oregon State	(6-1)	86
12	Ole Miss	(6-1)	82
13	Utah	(6-1)	77
14	Notre Dame	(6-2)	73
15	Missouri	(7-1)	62
16	LSU	(6-2)	61
17	North Carolina	(6-1)	53
18	Louisville	(6-1)	43
19	Duke	(5-2)	36
20	Air Force	(7-0)	32
21	Tulane	(6-1)	25
22	USC	(6-2)	24
23	Kansas State	(5-2)	19
24	UCLA	(5-2)	16
25	James Madison	(7-0)	12

 

Others receiving votes: Miami (11), Clemson (7), Rutgers (6), Tennessee (4), Fresno State (3), Iowa (2)

[gmr548 16504]

Another week of "I have to pick 25!?"

I reluctantly ranked Oklahoma State because I am relatively high on KSU and Kansas, and they beat both of those teams, but I am not sure they're that good. The USA loss is really bad but I acknowledge they were in a different QB situation then. Realized last week I had Penn State a few spots too high and adjusted accordingly. Texas is hard to rank with the Ewers injury but I do think they are probably a better team than OU despite the loss, which makes it all the more frustrating. I don't actually think this is the #8 team in the country sans Ewers but given it's not a season ending injury and his return is TBD I am not knocking them for that. Would probably reside in the Oregon State-Tulane neighborhood if I did. Thought about including Tennessee, Kansas, Air Force, and Arizona (nice win over Oregon State) but they just barely missed the cut. Clemson falls out of the poll.

1.) Ohio State
2.) Georgia
3.) Washington
4.) Oregon
5.) Florida State
6.) Michigan
7.) Notre Dame
8.) Texas
9.) Alabama
10.) Penn State
11.) Oklahoma
12.) Ole Miss
13.) LSU
14.) Missouri
15.) Kansas State
16.) Oregon State
17.) Louisville
18.) Utah
19.) USC
20.) UCLA
21.) Tulane
22.) North Carolina
23.) Miami
24.) Oklahoma State
25.) Duke

[Henry Hill 3156]

2-loss Notre Dame ahead of Texas is a travesty. 

Edited October 29, 2023 by Henry Hill

[gmr548 16504]

2-loss Notre Dame ahead of Texas is a travesty. 

Eh. You could say the same for Texas over OU and that’s going to be a mainstream position. I’d lean (slightly) ND over Texas on a neutral field. That theory will likely never be tested so it’s all academic

[JBJ 3649]

Interesting things:

1) KSU in #7 in the power ratings.  It's the best offense and overall team we face. Alabama is #10.

2) In order of likeliness of making the B12 title game: 1-KSU, 2-Texas, 3-Oklahoma, 4-OKSt - the top 3 are basically a toss up.  OSU is a bit less likely.

3) FSU is a virtual lock for the ACC championship.  They are through the tough part of their schedule and are the most likely team to go undefeated.

4) Georgia is moving into the teeth of their schedule and have the opportunity to move up.

5) Most likely scenario is that there is 1 undefeated P5 team at the end of the season.  However, there is still no individual team more likely to be undefeated than not. 

6) There is a good chance there's at least one "at-large" playoff spot (defined as a 1-loss team that didn't win their conference or a 2-loss champion).

Edited October 29, 2023 by JBJ

[BigOrange1 6422]

Participation is falling off as the season progresses:

Rank	Team	Record	Points
1	Georgia (1)	(8-0)	94
T2	Florida State (2)	(8-0)	93
T2	Ohio State (1)	(8-0)	93
T4	Michigan	(8-0)	89
T4	Washington	(8-0)	89
6	Texas	(7-1)	76
7	Oregon	(7-1)	75
T8	Alabama	(7-1)	71
T8	Oklahoma	(7-1)	71
10	Penn State	(7-1)	62
11	Ole Miss	(7-1)	59
12	Notre Dame	(7-2)	55
13	Louisville	(7-1)	53
14	Missouri	(7-1)	50
15	LSU	(6-2)	44
16	Oregon State	(6-2)	28
T17	Utah	(6-2)	27
T17	UCLA	(6-2)	27
19	Kansas State	(6-2)	25
T20	Tulane	(7-1)	20
T20	USC	(7-2)	20
22	Air Force	(8-0)	17
23	North Carolina	(6-2)	15
T24	Tennessee	(6-2)	11
T24	James Madison	(8-0)	11

 

Others receiving votes: Kansas (8), Iowa (6), Fresno State (3), Miami (3), Oklahoma State (2), Rutgers (2), Duke (1)

[gmr548 16504]

Didn’t watch much if other games this week because I was at the Texas game. Week 11 brought to you by score watching and tweaking my last entry:

1.) Ohio State
2.) Georgia
3.) Washington
4.) Oregon
5.) Florida State
6.) Michigan
7.) Texas
8.) Alabama
9.) Penn State
10.) Ole Miss
11.) Missouri
12.) Oregon State
13.) Louisville
14.) Utah
15.) LSU
16.) Notre Dame
17.) Oklahoma State
18.) Kansas
19.) Oklahoma
20.) USC
21.) Tulane
22.) North Carolina
23.) Arizona
24.) UCLA
25.) Duke

[BigOrange1 6422]

Week 11:

Rank	Team	Record	Points
1	Georgia (2)	(9-0)	95
2	Ohio State (1)	(9-0)	93
3	Florida State (1)	(9-0)	92
T4	Michigan	(9-0)	89
T4	Washington	(9-0)	89
6	Texas	(8-1)	78
7	Oregon	(8-1)	76
8	Alabama	(8-1)	74
9	Penn State	(8-1)	67
10	Ole Miss	(8-1)	64
11	Louisville	(8-1)	61
12	Utah	(7-2)	51
13	Oregon State	(7-2)	49
14	Missouri	(7-2)	41
15	Oklahoma	(7-2)	38
16	Kansas	(7-2)	37
17	Oklahoma State	(7-2)	31
18	Tennessee	(7-2)	29
T19	North Carolina	(7-2)	22
T19	LSU	(6-3)	22
T19	Notre Dame	(7-3)	22
22	Tulane	(8-1)	19
23	James Madison	(9-0)	15
24	Iowa	(7-2)	12
25	USC	(7-3)	10

 

Others receiving votes: Fresno State (9), Arizona (6), Liberty (4), UCLA (2), Duke (1)