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Week 2: Texas @ Bama score prediction

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13626

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6 hours ago, Ghost of Shag said:

All the false bravado has gotten old after more than a decade.

Texas isn’t beating Alabama at Bryant Denny with Quinn Ewers as quarterback.

Alabama 37

Texas 13

After this one, Sark starts feeling extreme heat on the quarterback front.

False bravado? By who? Internet fans? Most of us are being sarcastic. And even if we aren't, who cares? We aren't playing.

The idea that Sark is going to be in trouble because of a loss at Alabama is ridiculous. What are you talking about? The games that get Sark in trouble are TCU, OSU, and Tech last year not losing on the road to Bama. Even an elite Texas team might lose there.

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Ghost of Shag

Ghost of Shag 2730

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14 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

False bravado? By who? Internet fans? Most of us are being sarcastic. And even if we aren't, who cares? We aren't playing.

The idea that Sark is going to be in trouble because of a loss at Alabama is ridiculous. What are you talking about? The games that get Sark in trouble are TCU, OSU, and Tech last year not losing on the road to Bama. Even an elite Texas team might lose there.

It’s not about losing to Alabama in a vacuum. And I never said he would “be in trouble” like his job is in jeopardy. I said he would start taking heat on the quarterback situation. Comprehension is a bitch. 

You can’t keep running out the same quarterback who hasn’t improved for shit and is clearly the weak link on offense…. And yes, I’m including the line. 

 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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Obviously enemy thoughts here.  

After watching us, and I did watch about 3 quarters of your game, the first conclusion is that both teams didn't show much of anything against obviously out classed opposition.  Rice has considerably more talent than what we faced in Middle Tennessee State.  I think the game comes down to a few match ups:

1.  The Alabama o-line versus the Texas d-line/front 7.  I fully expect us to attempt to slug it out as our primary game plan.  The size of the offensive line you saw last year is dwarfed by the group this year.  Interestingly, despite the size increase, the line didn't really stand out in the running game and actually looked better in pass protection.  The Texas d-line looked pretty good to me, and the depth and rotation of 9ish guys is impressive.  Additionally, there was one defensive tackle for Texas (the name escapes me), who looked exceptional.  Lastly, on this front, the weather looks to be pretty favorable, in that in the evening it's not expected to be scorching, but beyond that, the humidity level is forecast to be marginal.  As long as the game is low scoring, I expect us to hammer away, to the point of looking stubborn about it, in the hopes that this will pay dividends late in the game.  

2.  The Alabama secondary vs the Texas skill players.  I don't believe our defensive line is anything beyond adequate, and at the same time I believe the Texas o-line is much the same, so I consider that a wash.  Last year, we saw Sark use to great effect, presnap motion to generate favorable match ups and exploit these.  One of the differences I believe you will notice is a far more simplistic approach from Alabama.  Golding was always seemingly attempting to run complex defensive schemes, which ultimately lead to some confusion.  Kevin Steele is back for his third stint with Alabama, and expect you will see press man on the corners and combo in the center the field.  Additionally, Steele has always been a guy to bring consistent yet simple blitz packages.  He favors giving faux looks like nickel that is actually base with a guy sneaking up at the snap, etc.  I expect Texas to use personnel packages to their advantage, ie running the ball when putting us in dime with personnel, and attempting to use confuse our middle secondary presnap.  I fully expect Texas to have some success at big plays in the center field in the passing game.   I'm of the belief that Texas will attempt to run the ball, far more than people are thinking, and with good results (think 4 yds per carry over the course of the game).  I also expect some success for Texas in crossing routes and delays.  I do not expect much to the outside, beyond wheel routes.  

In the end, I really don't believe there will be many possessions in total.  Points will be at a premium in a generally low scoring affair.  Alabama's ability to grind on the Texas defensive front is the difference, with a late touch down in an otherwise low scoring affair.  Both teams turn the ball over twice.  Take the under, and get the points with Texas.

Alabama 23

Texas 17

Total yards - Bama 332, Texas 312

 

And when I am wrong, it's generally hugely wrong, so just to cover myself on that front, its shoot out, with the final being 70-69 with a missed PAT being the difference.  

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Bama Llama

Bama Llama 1508

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Alabama 21

Texas 20

Alabama 273 yards

Bama’s offense can’t get ahead of the sticks all night, stinks up Bryant Denny. Both defenses play balls out. Milroe bails and scrambles 15 times, to little effect. Saban refuses to sub any backup QB for Milroe. Ewers flings 14 long passes, some connect. Sark pulls a hamstring jumping up from a squat, refuses to play subs.

Auburn (spit on ground) and Reichert fill the air with field goal attempts, some connect. 

With 1:00 left, up 20-16, Horns are inside their own 5, facing 4th and 13, call time.  

Horns punter runs around in the end zone using many of Bama’s precious remaining seconds, giving the safety (Sarks secret plan). Free kick ends up with Bama on its own 30, 50 seconds left in the game. Texas 20, Bama 18. Many fans, remembering grade school arithmetic, become excited.

Three downs net negative 10. On 4th and 20 with 22 seconds left, Milroe scrambles to the Horns 40 but forgets to call time. Saban, steam shooting out of mouth, ears, eyes and nostrils, remembers, and calls time with 2 seconds left. 

Reichert nails one from 57.

Big Al fondles the anal cleft of the best looking chaps girl, says later, “You could fit a Bartlett pear up in there!  I’m transferring to Austin!”

With the win, Bama trails Texas all time, 7-3-1. Maybe I’ll live long enough to see the series even.

P.S. 
Texas meets Bama again in this year’s playoff. In all of our dreams.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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1 hour ago, Ghost of Shag said:

It’s not about losing to Alabama in a vacuum. And I never said he would “be in trouble” like his job is in jeopardy. I said he would start taking heat on the quarterback situation. Comprehension is a bitch. 

You can’t keep running out the same quarterback who hasn’t improved for shit and is clearly the weak link on offense…. And yes, I’m including the line. 

 

The OL, especially the interior, is much more of a weak link than Ewers. 

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MirrOlure

MirrOlure 15271

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Obviously enemy thoughts here.  
After watching us, and I did watch about 3 quarters of your game, the first conclusion is that both teams didn't show much of anything against obviously out classed opposition.  Rice has considerably more talent than what we faced in Middle Tennessee State.  I think the game comes down to a few match ups:
1.  The Alabama o-line versus the Texas d-line/front 7.  I fully expect us to attempt to slug it out as our primary game plan.  The size of the offensive line you saw last year is dwarfed by the group this year.  Interestingly, despite the size increase, the line didn't really stand out in the running game and actually looked better in pass protection.  The Texas d-line looked pretty good to me, and the depth and rotation of 9ish guys is impressive.  Additionally, there was one defensive tackle for Texas (the name escapes me), who looked exceptional.  Lastly, on this front, the weather looks to be pretty favorable, in that in the evening it's not expected to be scorching, but beyond that, the humidity level is forecast to be marginal.  As long as the game is low scoring, I expect us to hammer away, to the point of looking stubborn about it, in the hopes that this will pay dividends late in the game.  
2.  The Alabama secondary vs the Texas skill players.  I don't believe our defensive line is anything beyond adequate, and at the same time I believe the Texas o-line is much the same, so I consider that a wash.  Last year, we saw Sark use to great effect, presnap motion to generate favorable match ups and exploit these.  One of the differences I believe you will notice is a far more simplistic approach from Alabama.  Golding was always seemingly attempting to run complex defensive schemes, which ultimately lead to some confusion.  Kevin Steele is back for his third stint with Alabama, and expect you will see press man on the corners and combo in the center the field.  Additionally, Steele has always been a guy to bring consistent yet simple blitz packages.  He favors giving faux looks like nickel that is actually base with a guy sneaking up at the snap, etc.  I expect Texas to use personnel packages to their advantage, ie running the ball when putting us in dime with personnel, and attempting to use confuse our middle secondary presnap.  I fully expect Texas to have some success at big plays in the center field in the passing game.   I'm of the belief that Texas will attempt to run the ball, far more than people are thinking, and with good results (think 4 yds per carry over the course of the game).  I also expect some success for Texas in crossing routes and delays.  I do not expect much to the outside, beyond wheel routes.  
In the end, I really don't believe there will be many possessions in total.  Points will be at a premium in a generally low scoring affair.  Alabama's ability to grind on the Texas defensive front is the difference, with a late touch down in an otherwise low scoring affair.  Both teams turn the ball over twice.  Take the under, and get the points with Texas.
Alabama 23
Texas 17
Total yards - Bama 332, Texas 312
 
And when I am wrong, it's generally hugely wrong, so just to cover myself on that front, its shoot out, with the final being 70-69 with a missed PAT being the difference.  

And here’s me, who just picked some numbers out of my ass….
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gmr548

gmr548 16697

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The OL, especially the interior, is much more of a weak link than Ewers. 

Rewatching the Rice game today I think this is right, but I'm not sure P5 replacement level guard play would be enough against Alabama with Ewers back there either.

Edited by gmr548
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Rewatching the Rice game today I think this is right, but I'm not sure P5 replacement level guard play would be enough against Alabama with Ewers back there either.

Ewers might be better without free runs inside being given up. It’s literally the biggest cardinal sin in football. Maybe not. I don’t know. But he played at a higher quality than those guys for sure. Call it B-/C+ to C-/D+ for the line. 

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 13284

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Texas - 17

Bama - 13

 

Texas has the weapons on O and the D, and Bama O hasn't clicked yet with Milroe or Simpson, and their D can be handled by our WR's. Of thos were a Bryce-led Bama team it would be a different prediction from me, but we get them at the right time. 

Edited by Spider2YBanana
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Bevo&Pevo

Bevo&Pevo 5518

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Duke beats Clemson.  Texas State crushes the Baylor.  Wyo sticks it to Tech.  Colorado steps on TCU.  Certainly, we can take down little ol' Alabama.  It's not like they are some kind untouchable football program we are supposed to bow down to.  Sark slaps a wig on Quinn and he gets his mojo back.  We win.

TEXAS 30

ALABAMA 28   355 yards

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